Who is getting fired?

[max silver]

I wonder how long they ride things out with Springer if things still look more or less the same for him. Probably like May 2025 is the earliest we'd see a DFA?

 

Yeah it's obvious nothing is going to happen quickly given how long it took to even move Springer out of the leadoff spot this season. Even 3 months as MLB's worst qualified hitter is enough to see his playing time cut or even moved towards the bottom of the order.

[Brownie19]

Yeah it's obvious nothing is going to happen quickly given how long it took to even move Springer out of the leadoff spot this season. Even 3 months as MLB's worst qualified hitter is enough to see his playing time cut or even moved towards the bottom of the order.

 

I see you keep saying that. I assume at one point, his wRC+ was the worst of all qualified hitters, but if you look at that leaderboard, there are several players who are still getting tons of playing time while not hitting. Some are vets, some are younger, some play for winning/good teams, some play for losers. He's nowhere near the worst in terms of WAR, so it's not like he's killing the team. His wRC+ is now 7 points behind Bo. Do you want to bench Bo permanently too?

[max silver]

I see you keep saying that. I assume at one point, his wRC+ was the worst of all qualified hitters, but if you look at that leaderboard, there are several players who are still getting tons of playing time while not hitting. Some are vets, some are younger, some play for winning/good teams, some play for losers. He's nowhere near the worst in terms of WAR, so it's not like he's killing the team. His wRC+ is now 7 points behind Bo. Do you want to bench Bo permanently too?

 

Feel free to provide receipts where I suggested Springer should be permanently benched. Having said that I see no issue with reducing his playing time a bit until he shows he's able to produce better results at the plate. Turner had an abysmal month of May and needed to earn an increase in playing time and I see no reason why Springer shouldn't need to do the same thing. Other contending teams that don't feature half of their lineup simultaneously producing the worst seasons of their respective careers can afford to keep a struggling veteran in the lineup every day and still keep winning games. If you are suggesting that featuring George Springer's 71 wRC+ in the lineup every day of the week isn't having a material effect on a struggling offensive lineup I don't know what to say at that point.

 

Seeing as how I never said to permanently bench Springer then it stands to reason I would suggest nothing of the sort for Bo. They have each struggled to similar degrees, however Springer's struggles are part of a prolonged year over year decline which have seen his results at the plate suffer from a precipitous decline over several seasons of play, vs Bo whose struggles are much shorter in nature. Springer is 34 years of age and appears to be well past his offensive prime, vs Bo who is 26 old, in his physical prime, and coming off of a 126 wRC+ season. Are you this obtuse intentionally? I'd like to think you aren't actually dumb enough to feature this type of argument but I'm perfectly willing to shift course if necessary.

[Brownie19]

Feel free to provide receipts where I suggested Springer should be permanently benched. Having said that I see no issue with reducing his playing time a bit until he shows he's able to produce better results at the plate. Turner had an abysmal month of May and needed to earn an increase in playing time and I see no reason why Springer shouldn't need to do the same thing. Other contending teams that don't feature half of their lineup simultaneously producing the worst seasons of their respective careers can afford to keep a struggling veteran in the lineup every day and still keep winning games. If you are suggesting that featuring George Springer's 71 wRC+ in the lineup every day of the week isn't having a material effect on a struggling offensive lineup I don't know what to say at that point.

 

Seeing as how I never said to permanently bench Springer then it stands to reason I would suggest nothing of the sort for Bo. They have each struggled to similar degrees, however Springer's struggles are part of a prolonged year over year decline which have seen his results at the plate suffer from a precipitous decline over several seasons of play, vs Bo whose struggles are much shorter in nature. Springer is 34 years of age and appears to be well past his offensive prime, vs Bo who is 26 old, in his physical prime, and coming off of a 126 wRC+ season. Are you this obtuse intentionally? I'd like to think you aren't actually dumb enough to feature this type of argument but I'm perfectly willing to shift course if necessary.

 

Bo's struggled extend well into the later half of 2023.

 

Fair about the benching comment. It is quite common to see high paid players/vet get much more rope. To be honest, at this point, one of the best things that could happen for the Jays is for Springer to figure it out and return to his projections (115 wRC+, 2-3 WAR OFer). He isn't going to do that sitting on the bench. It's a lost season, so I have no problem running him back out there in hopes he breaks out of the slump.

[L54]

Do you guys remember how Bo was butt cheeks almost the entire 2022 season, went on a ridiculous heater in September which made him look like a 5 WAR guy?

 

Through August 31 - 107 wRC+

 

September - 215 wRC+

[G-Snarls]

Do you guys remember how Bo was butt cheeks almost the entire 2022 season, went on a ridiculous heater in September which made him look like a 5 WAR guy?

 

Through August 31 - 107 wRC+

 

September - 215 wRC+

 

Bo going on an extended tear any day now would be most welcome

[Laika]

Do you guys remember how Bo was butt cheeks almost the entire 2022 season, went on a ridiculous heater in September which made him look like a 5 WAR guy?

 

Through August 31 - 107 wRC+

 

September - 215 wRC+

 

It wasn't the same

 

He was only bad in April 2022, every other month he was above 100 wRC+

 

The depth and length of his 2024 slump is quite different

[Brownie19]

It wasn't the same

 

He was only bad in April 2022, every other month he was above 100 wRC+

 

The depth and length of his 2024 slump is quite different

 

Since August 1, 2023

 

411 PA's

82 wRC+

.117 ISO

 

It's to the point that it's a serious concern.

[John_Havok]

Do you guys remember how Bo was butt cheeks almost the entire 2022 season, went on a ridiculous heater in September which made him look like a 5 WAR guy?

 

Through August 31 - 107 wRC+

 

September - 215 wRC+

 

107 wRC+ is not "butt cheeks". below expectations for him, sure, but if your slumps are at a 107 wRC+, you're welcome on my team any day of the week.

[max silver]

Since August 1, 2023

 

411 PA's

82 wRC+

.117 ISO

 

It's to the point that it's a serious concern.

 

I looked up the expected stats during this period and Bo sits at a .316 xwOBA/.275 wOBA. Springer and Kirk have similar splits as well which sees them dramatically underperforming their expected stats. A key job for whoever eventually overlooks the hitters will be turning the quality of contact these guys produce into actual results on the field.

[Laika]

I looked up the expected stats during this period and Bo sits at a .316 xwOBA/.275 wOBA. Springer and Kirk have similar splits as well which sees them dramatically underperforming their expected stats. A key job for whoever eventually overlooks the hitters will be turning the quality of contact these guys produce into actual results on the field.

 

I think one key is to stop hitting the ball at the f***ing centrefielder

 

Half of the roster seems to just lift flyball after liner after flyball to centrefield. The best defender and biggest part of the park.

[max silver]

I think one key is to stop hitting the ball at the f***ing centrefielder

 

Half of the roster seems to just lift flyball after liner after flyball to centrefield. The best defender and biggest part of the park.

 

I just hate when hitters directly state that they are trying to aim the ball up the middle given how hard it is to actually produce any results this way.

 

There are a lot of guys on the team who hit a ton of their hard hit balls nearly directly at the right fielder as well. It seems like Bo and Kirk and even Vlad to a degree are much easier to defend as a result.

[Jimcanuck]

Bo may have just tinkered with his swing too damn much. Looking at his spray chart, he started with most of the hits (and hrs) to the pull side, then 2021/2022 peak years he was using the whole field. 2023 and even more so in 2024 he's primarily hitting oppo. Maybe he tried to start his swing later, give himself more time to see the pitch before committing (and cut the K's). Whatever the changes, it's f***ed him up.

[L54]

107 wRC+ is not "butt cheeks". below expectations for him, sure, but if your slumps are at a 107 wRC+, you're welcome on my team any day of the week.

 

Everybody but you understood what I meant Mr. Semantics police. Good job

[L54]

It wasn't the same

 

He was only bad in April 2022, every other month he was above 100 wRC+

 

The depth and length of his 2024 slump is quite different

 

No it’s not the same at all. Not saying it is. Pointing out that he saved his 2022 szn by being Barry Bonds in September

[L54]

I just hate when hitters directly state that they are trying to aim the ball up the middle given how hard it is to actually produce any results this way.

 

There are a lot of guys on the team who hit a ton of their hard hit balls nearly directly at the right fielder as well. It seems like Bo and Kirk and even Vlad to a degree are much easier to defend as a result.

 

Okay but when hitters say I’m trying to stay up the middle that’s just a state of mind. An approach. A cue. They aren’t literally trying to hit line drives to the center fielder to catch

[Stangstag]

Do you guys remember how Bo was butt cheeks almost the entire 2022 season, went on a ridiculous heater in September which made him look like a 5 WAR guy?

 

Through August 31 - 107 wRC+

 

September - 215 wRC+

 

Yes. Im still pretty confident he’ll end the season on 4ish WAR. Which is why IMO it would be better to trade him in the offseason

[MikeM3]

Anyone can sell. Just fire everyone and let an intern gather prospects based on fangraphs lists.

[Brownie19]

Yes. Im still pretty confident he’ll end the season on 4ish WAR. Which is why IMO it would be better to trade him in the offseason

 

Wow - I would guess there's a 5% chance Bo ends the year with 4 WAR. He's at 0.4 WAR right now and the most optimistic projections suggest about 2 more WAR over the rest of the season. Bo's hit like Espinal over his past 400+ PA's. With every at bat, the likelihood he returns to a 4+ WAR star player diminishes. This isn't a slump.

[max silver]

Wow - I would guess there's a 5% chance Bo ends the year with 4 WAR. He's at 0.4 WAR right now and the most optimistic projections suggest about 2 more WAR over the rest of the season. Bo's hit like Espinal over his past 400+ PA's. With every at bat, the likelihood he returns to a 4+ WAR star player diminishes. This isn't a slump.

 

Bo isn't about to become Santiago Epsinal at the plate long term, he's just far too talented for that to be the case. He'll get himself sorted at the plate eventually as the underlying numbers are still decent enough. I wouldn't place any money on him hitting 4 WAR this season but I'm fully confident he'll turn himself around at the plate at some point this season. He produced a .352 xwOBA/.231 wOBA for the month of June and .357 xwOBA/.318 wOBA for the month of May so it's not like he's been as bad at the plate as the results would suggest.

[Brownie19]

Bo isn't about to become Santiago Epsinal at the plate long term, he's just far too talented for that to be the case. He'll get himself sorted at the plate eventually as the underlying numbers are still decent enough. I wouldn't place any money on him hitting 4 WAR this season but I'm fully confident he'll turn himself around at the plate at some point this season. He produced a .352 xwOBA/.231 wOBA for the month of June and .357 xwOBA/.318 wOBA for the month of May so it's not like he's been as bad at the plate as the results would suggest.

 

We'll see.

 

There are a lot of concerning underlying metrics. His bat speed is only in the 31st percentile, his LA sweet spot% has dropped significantly, barrel% dropped off the table, etc. I do wonder if he should be adopting the adjustments that Kwan made. Bo's contact % isn't on Kwan's level, but it's typically high. Maybe he needs to stop trying to hit everything he swings at - do more damage.

 

He's almost been completely USELESS v. LHP this year....his wRC+ v. LHP is 1 on the season.........1!!! He's crushed lefties his entire career, until this year when he's decided to hit like Voggy v. LHP. f***ing Donnie Baseball ruining everything.

 

Whatever it is, he needs to figure it out soon. Most players who hit like Goins for a full calendar year have difficulty making it back to star levels.

[max silver]

We'll see.

 

There are a lot of concerning underlying metrics. His bat speed is only in the 31st percentile, his LA sweet spot% has dropped significantly, barrel% dropped off the table, etc. I do wonder if he should be adopting the adjustments that Kwan made. Bo's contact % isn't on Kwan's level, but it's typically high. Maybe he needs to stop trying to hit everything he swings at - do more damage.

 

He's almost been completely USELESS v. LHP this year....his wRC+ v. LHP is 1 on the season.........1!!! He's crushed lefties his entire career, until this year when he's decided to hit like Voggy v. LHP. f***ing Donnie Baseball ruining everything.

 

Whatever it is, he needs to figure it out soon. Most players who hit like Goins for a full calendar year have difficulty making it back to star levels.

 

So now you are comparing Bo to Ryan Goins after a Santiago Espinal example previously. Come on man this is getting ridiculous and reaching near troll levels.

 

There's not much point in surmising Bo's bat speed as what's wrong with him as we don't have any previous year's data to compare it to. Bo has certainly seen a drop off in a lot of key metrics and hasn't gotten on track aside from a few bursts since the knee injury last season. He is one of many examples on the team of not producing the expected results the quality of contact would suggest to be the case. The team failed miserably in the offseason to address the performance issues of so many members of the offense and it's high time for some new progressive voices to be brought aboard.

[Brownie19]

So now you are comparing Bo to Ryan Goins after a Santiago Espinal example previously. Come on man this is getting ridiculous and reaching near troll levels.

 

There's not much point in surmising Bo's bat speed as what's wrong with him as we don't have any previous year's data to compare it to. Bo has certainly seen a drop off in a lot of key metrics and hasn't gotten on track aside from a few bursts since the knee injury last season. He is one of many examples on the team of not producing the expected results the quality of contact would suggest to be the case. The team failed miserably in the offseason to address the performance issues of so many members of the offense and it's high time for some new progressive voices to be brought aboard.

 

I'm comparing his results to the results of other recognizable players to give context and visualizations to just how AWFUL he's been over the last 400+ PA's. Is that too complicated for you?

[max silver]

I'm comparing his results to the results of other recognizable players to give context and visualizations to just how AWFUL he's been over the last 400+ PA's. Is that too complicated for you?

 

Is it too complicated for you to understand that the processes behind the results suggest this player should be producing nowhere close to the same types of results as the players you keep bringing up? Santiago Espinal was always ripe for a massive correction to his batted ball results given the poor quality of contact metrics that illustrated how unlikely he would be to continue to enjoy success. Ryan Goins never had a single successful season at the plate and was a legitimately awful major league hitter.

[BatFlip]

Is it too complicated for you to understand that the processes behind the results suggest this player should be producing nowhere close to the same types of results as the players you keep bringing up? Santiago Espinal was always ripe for a massive correction to his batted ball results given the poor quality of contact metrics that illustrated how unlikely he would be to continue to enjoy success. Ryan Goins never had a single successful season at the plate and was a legitimately awful major league hitter.

 

 

I wonder if there are any age precedents for players who have struggled this much after putting up 16 WAR by age 25 (aside from Vlad *groan*).

[The Cats Ass]

I wonder if there are any age precedents for players who have struggled this much after putting up 16 WAR by age 25 (aside from Vlad *groan*).

 

Cody Bellinger

[Laika]

I wonder if there are any age precedents for players who have struggled this much after putting up 16 WAR by age 25 (aside from Vlad *groan*).

 

Probably a lot of examples if you look into it

 

Baseball is hard

 

Jay Bruce had 17 WAR through age 26 and then almost nothing the rest of his career

Alex Rios was excellent at 27 and then suddenly started bouncing between replacement level years and okay years

BJ Upton was extremely valuable through age 27 then it disappeared overnight

Matt Kemp went to s*** at 28 years old

Yoan Moncada went to s*** at 27

Jason Heyward lost it at 26 years old and has just been clinging on ever since because he's a good bench player or role player

 

The peak of the aging curve is still 28 years old. Bo might just be having an earlier peak. Maybe he had an early physical decline, maybe chronic injuries are to blame.