The Ship is Sinking

[Brownie19]

I had a look over the weekend. We invested $50M ARO this off season into a collective that has produced 0.4 WAR ish thus far in 2024.

 

They doubled down on pitching (Yariel & Green) and D (IKF & KK). JT @ 40 for that cost projecting 105 as DH was always an odd signing.

 

The '23 off season median cost/WAR for FAs was down to $4.4M from over $8M in '22 off season.

 

Tyler O'Neil, JDM and hell even Paul DeJong, Ahmed Rosario have been worth more alone that our $50M ARO investments, and for cheaper. For all the early criticism of the Chappy signing, he is up to 1.1 WAR now and has his WRC+ at 108. We will never REALLY know who they could have closed to sign here, but they did have $50M ARO to invest.

Anyway...we have had this debate a million times. I think this off season sucked overall given our gaps. We need ISO. Others disagree. This team's issues run deeper than one or two signings this off season. Its more about the "waves" of impact talent that hasn't come than any one signing this off season. Drafting and development has been a massive Achilles heel and this FOs' biggest failing.

 

I do agree with this - but you have to be careful when you cherry pick a bunch of players who've had good starts to the season and say "see, we should have signed those guys". For ever Ahmed Rosario signing that looks like a deal, there's a Gio Urshela who looked comparable at the time, who's a complete zero. All players who are brought in have risks. There are probabilities for different potential outcomes. Just because a few of them produce at the 90th percentile outcome, doesn't make the GM a genius. All GM's throw s*** against a wall and hope it sticks. Most the time it doesn't.

[BigCecil]

Dunno if I would say that exactly. I thought Crochet and the White Sox got a bit lucky on batted balls last night. Look at these from the scorecard:

 

2nd inning, Bo, 102.2mph lineout at 363 feet, expected BA of .420

 

3rd inning, Clement, 102mph flyout at 366 feet, expected BA of .580

 

4th inning, Jansen, 106.7mph lineout expected BA of .650

4th inning, Vlad, lineout expected BA of .400

 

5th inning, Turner, his double wasn't crushed but it was off the wall and would have been a homer in Minute Maid, funny enough

 

6th inning, IKF 103mph lineout 386 feet expected BA of .550

 

7th inning, Springer, 101.7mph lineout expected BA of .430

 

The two furthest hit balls last night were actually IKF and Clement (tied with the Danny Mendick double)

 

Crochet was throwing strikes and gas. You could say that some of the Jays hitters actually had a decent, aggressive approach against him and it just didn't work out?

 

We did however see the bullpen problems on full display. Leasure and Kopech are really tough so even a s***** team like the White Sox can basically make it game over from the 8th on unless one of those guys is having a weird day. So Toronto after Crochet kind of had to just get to Brebbia...

 

Meanwhile the Jays are using Pop in a close game and then Mayza, who is f***ing brutal and has no stuff and should be sent to Dunedin for a month.

 

Thats fair. I'm just frustrated. I mean to be a .600 team for the rest of the year you need to beat some good pitching, and you also need some BAPIP luck.

 

If they win tonight they win a series again it looks a little better. I never expected the pitching to repeat the health and performance of '23. Although the starters have exceeded my expectations. 7th in MLB in "quality starts". Its hard trust the volatility of pen arms season to season.

[Laika]

Thats fair. I'm just frustrated. I mean to be a .600 team for the rest of the year you need to beat some good pitching, and you also need some BAPIP luck.

 

If they win tonight they win a series again it looks a little better. I never expected the pitching to repeat the health and performance of '23. Although the starters have exceeded my expectations. 7th in MLB in "quality starts". Its hard trust the volatility of pen arms season to season.

 

The situation with the pen sucks, man.

 

2023 Jays relievers - 9th in fWAR, 8th in ERA, 12th in vFA (94.6)

 

2024 Jays relievers - 21st in vFA (94.4), 28th in ERA, 29th in fWAR

 

If there is any lesson there^ it's that basic velo measurements should have at least hinted at the pen being just another normal middle of the pack bullpen.

 

Swanson actually has a decent xFIP right now and his velo is the same, he may be able to just get over this. Possibly some random HR swings happening to him.

Mayza on the other hand looks completely cooked and I don't understand why he is still throwing fastballs 70% of the time with 2mph gone. He should be 50% sliders.

 

We can blame the front office for over-relying on Cabrera and Pearson I guess.

 

Romano might have just mildly declined (fastball slightly worse) and some injury rust is making the effect of that even worse for now.

[xposbrad]

I do agree with this - but you have to be careful when you cherry pick a bunch of players who've had good starts to the season and say "see, we should have signed those guys". For ever Ahmed Rosario signing that looks like a deal, there's a Gio Urshela who looked comparable at the time, who's a complete zero. All players who are brought in have risks. There are probabilities for different potential outcomes. Just because a few of them produce at the 90th percentile outcome, doesn't make the GM a genius. All GM's throw s*** against a wall and hope it sticks. Most the time it doesn't.

 

Atkins was also focused on patch jobs instead of really building a base. The future does not look good right now, and it's one thing to have a super competitive, young, core pieces locked to long term deals type of team. But the Jays don't have that. They also have what, 1 maybe 2 guys in the top 100 prospects with no real quantity or quality guys. So we can focus on 1 offseason or the bigger picture. The bigger picture sucks right now. Fire him, get a GM who recognizes the state of the club and takes steps to fix it instead of these patch jobs to try to squeak into the playoffs to lose.

[BigCecil]

After the 6th inning we expect a run or 2 to get tacked on now, with the pen. Which normally wouldn't be jugular.

 

But we are 29th in MLB in runs scored. That is astonishing. -45 Run differential with the overall good starting performances is concerning.

 

As for the pen, not consistently developing pen arm options on our farm other than Mayza, Pearson is biting us. Our pen isn't relatively cheap anymore is it with arb payment increases and Yimi and Green cost?

[Brownie19]

Thats fair. I'm just frustrated. I mean to be a .600 team for the rest of the year you need to beat some good pitching, and you also need some BAPIP luck.

 

If they win tonight they win a series again it looks a little better. I never expected the pitching to repeat the health and performance of '23. Although the starters have exceeded my expectations. 7th in MLB in "quality starts". Its hard trust the volatility of pen arms season to season.

 

To do this, we'd need A LOT more than just BABIP luck. There's almost zero indication this is even remotely possible. This season was dead upon arrival.

[max silver]

To do this, we'd need A LOT more than just BABIP luck. There's almost zero indication this is even remotely possible. This season was dead upon arrival.

 

I came across a recent tweet that showed that Blue Jays hitters have been victimized by the highest OAA against them in MLB this season so they've lost a ton of hits due to elite defense. I also saw a recent tweet showing that the team had also faced the highest average stuff+ as well, while also facing one of MLB's toughest schedules based on games vs teams above .500. There's no sugarcoating how bad the offense has been but at the same time once the schedule has balanced out a bit more over time with regards to quality of opposition a more complete picture of what to expect moving forward will emerge.

[Brownie19]

After the 6th inning we expect a run or 2 to get tacked on now, with the pen. Which normally wouldn't be jugular.

 

But we are 29th in MLB in runs scored. That is astonishing. -45 Run differential with the overall good starting performances is concerning.

 

As for the pen, not consistently developing pen arm options on our farm other than Mayza, Pearson is biting us. Our pen isn't relatively cheap anymore is it with arb payment increases and Yimi and Green cost?

 

It's been so much fun watching legit bullpen options like Connor Cooke, Hayden Juenger, Hagen Danner, Mason Fluharty, Yosver Zulueta, etc. all show promise and success throughout the minors, only to get to AAA and then completely s*** the bed. I think on average, our AAA RPers walk 5+ per game. You'd think the AAA pitching coach is actively telling them to try and walk people.

 

And f*** Nate Pearson. How many pitchers who were considered one of the best RH pitching prospects in baseball end up being healthy, but unable to even be a serviceable arm out of the pen? Like 1 in 50 maybe? It feels like coaches would have to be actively sabotaging Pearson for him to be this s*****. There's little to no reason he shouldn't be a lights out setup/closer at the ML level. But oh no - we get a f***ing polished turd instead.

[Brownie19]

I came across a recent tweet that showed that Blue Jays hitters have been victimized by the highest OAA against them in MLB this season so they've lost a ton of hits due to elite defense. I also saw a recent tweet showing that the team had also faced the highest average stuff+ as well, while also facing one of MLB's toughest schedules based on games vs teams above .500. There's no sugarcoating how bad the offense has been but at the same time once the schedule has balanced out a bit more over time with regards to quality of opposition a more complete picture of what to expect moving forward will emerge.

 

I'm sorry man, but most of that s*** doesn't matter. The season is OVER. We may climb back and finish around 80 wins, but it will all be irrelevant. This team won't be relevant again until at least 2030.

[max silver]

I'm sorry man, but most of that s*** doesn't matter. The season is OVER. We may climb back and finish around 80 wins, but it will all be irrelevant. This team won't be relevant again until at least 2030.

 

My bad, I thought major league baseball seasons were 6 months long and there was more than 4 months left to go. I guess a 3.5 game deficit is insurmountable with that much time remaining so I should start following F1 instead or something of that sort.

[mphenhef]

After the 6th inning we expect a run or 2 to get tacked on now, with the pen. Which normally wouldn't be jugular.

 

But we are 29th in MLB in runs scored. That is astonishing. -45 Run differential with the overall good starting performances is concerning.

 

As for the pen, not consistently developing pen arm options on our farm other than Mayza, Pearson is biting us. Our pen isn't relatively cheap anymore is it with arb payment increases and Yimi and Green cost?

 

Mayza was an AA draft pick too. So in 9 years this front office has drafted and developed Pearson alone as a bullpen arm. You should have lucked into a couple by this point in time.

[xposbrad]

I'm sorry man, but most of that s*** doesn't matter. The season is OVER. We may climb back and finish around 80 wins, but it will all be irrelevant. This team won't be relevant again until at least 2030.

 

About 3-4 years to stockpile talent, then another 2-3 to play them (while still rebuilding) and have them come up and see who pans out. So, ya about 2030.

[Brownie19]

Mayza was an AA draft pick too. So in 9 years this front office has drafted and developed Pearson alone as a bullpen arm. You should have lucked into a couple by this point in time.

 

It's almost comical they haven't. It seems like 14 year old could draft based off ESPN draft rankings, employ some dad's to coach the minor league teams and they would luck into more ML talent than the Jays.

[BigCecil]

My bad, I thought major league baseball seasons were 6 months long and there was more than 4 months left to go. I guess a 3.5 game deficit is insurmountable with that much time remaining so I should start following F1 instead or something of that sort.

 

A. The math says we need to play .600 ball today to end of season. We may have a hot stretch which will push our odds up, but I don't see that level of play sustainable for this team. Maybe if we roll hard at the deadline we get on a scorcher like 2015, but the cost of that risk is concerning in and of itself. 90 wins is current projected for 3rd wildcard.

 

B. Our run differential is not encouraging. If that were tighter, it would be an indicator of other than A.

 

C. Teams between us and spot can also get hot(ter).

 

D. Even if we squeak in '22 and '23 matched up against the other top starters we are fared poorly 3/4 games. We got to Ray in '22 but that was that offense and Teo hit 2 that game. We would have a shot obviously but we scored 1 run in 18 innings in '23 in those match ups.

 

E. 18% odds of playoff spot.

 

If you want to be glass half full and a believer by all means its all good. This is the "ship is sinking" thread lol

[Brownie19]

My bad, I thought major league baseball seasons were 6 months long and there was more than 4 months left to go. I guess a 3.5 game deficit is insurmountable with that much time remaining so I should start following F1 instead or something of that sort.

 

I know it's a tough pill to swallow, but grab a big glass of water and get it down. This team f***ing sucks. 3.5 games might as well be 87 games. That number is irrelevant when there are like 7 teams ahead of them. I mean there's always a chance for a miracle, but I wouldn't hold your breath.

[max silver]

I know it's a tough pill to swallow, but grab a big glass of water and get it down. This team f***ing sucks. 3.5 games might as well be 87 games. That number is irrelevant when there are like 7 teams ahead of them. I mean there's always a chance for a miracle, but I wouldn't hold your breath.

 

You sound depressed. I think there's medication for that now so it might be worth looking into.

[Stangstag]

You sound depressed. I think there's medication for that now so it might be worth looking into.

 

I still can't tell if he's being overly sarcastic/grim on purpose, or if his mind actually broke

[max silver]

I still can't tell if he's being overly sarcastic/grim on purpose, or if his mind actually broke

 

He was exactly like this last season when the team went on the skids in May so it's not the first time he broke mentally.

[BigCecil]

Vogelbach: $2M ARO : Negative 0.1 WAR

 

Justin Turner: $13M ARO: Negative 0.2 WAR

[Olerud363]

I know it's a tough pill to swallow, but grab a big glass of water and get it down. This team f***ing sucks. 3.5 games might as well be 87 games. That number is irrelevant when there are like 7 teams ahead of them. I mean there's always a chance for a miracle, but I wouldn't hold your breath.

 

You can do this on a napkin.

 

Two team race chances are 1/2 that your team does it, take away a bit if your team is behind, add a bit if your team projects better. So 50% give or take.

 

7 team race chances are 1/7 that your team does it, take away a bit if your team is the one behind, add a bit if your team projects better, so 16% give or take.

[Laika]

Vogelbach: $2M ARO : Negative 0.1 WAR

 

Justin Turner: $13M ARO: Negative 0.2 WAR

 

why do you say ARO

 

nobody else says ARO

[Brownie19]

Thanks for your concern, but I'm fine guys. You don't seem overly concerned with the other 90% of the posters who spew nothing but doom and gloom around here. Not sure why I'm special. I'm just being realistic. This team simply can't contend if Bo, Vlad, Springer, Kirk and the bullpen all s*** the bed - and well, it looks like that's what we're going to get. It's too bad, but that's life.

 

Last year at this point, we were 13th in runs scored and 10th in wRC+. Last year our wRC+ was 106. It's 94 this year. This isn't the same as last year guys. It's significantly worse.

[Omar]

I'm sorry man, but most of that s*** doesn't matter. The season is OVER. We may climb back and finish around 80 wins, but it will all be irrelevant. This team won't be relevant again until at least 2030.

 

I have lost the ability to detect your sarcasm anymore. Perhaps when you took a few days off bjmb you had a change of heart. Maybe that you saw a vision on the road to Blu Jays Way and became born again? I don't know anymore.

[Olerud363]

Vogelbach: $2M ARO : Negative 0.1 WAR

 

Justin Turner: $13M ARO: Negative 0.2 WAR

 

Meanwhile in Buffalo our 26 year olds (or are they 27 now? 28? 30?) are putting up .900 OPS. Really excited for Kasevich and Roden to get up to Buffalo, they should put their kids in school in Buffalo (or find a local wife if no kids yet) set down roots, buy a house or two, invest in a local Wendy's, maybe even join the local school Board.

[Spanky99]

why do you say ARO

 

nobody else says ARO

 

I was meaning to ask him this myself, instead of AAV . I felt dumb though.

[Olerud363]

I have lost the ability to detect your sarcasm anymore. Perhaps when you took a few days off bjmb you had a change of heart. Maybe that you saw a vision on the road to Blu Jays Way and became born again? I don't know anymore.

 

It's impossible to tell because no one know what ones definition of hopeless is. Would have hope if the Doctor gave you a 20% chance to live? The patient has a 20% chance that means different things to different people.

[Spanky99]

Thanks for your concern, but I'm fine guys. You don't seem overly concerned with the other 90% of the posters who spew nothing but doom and gloom around here. Not sure why I'm special. I'm just being realistic. This team simply can't contend if Bo, Vlad, Springer, Kirk and the bullpen all s*** the bed - and well, it looks like that's what we're going to get. It's too bad, but that's life.

 

Last year at this point, we were 13th in runs scored and 10th in wRC+. Last year our wRC+ was 106. It's 94 this year. This isn't the same as last year guys. It's significantly worse.

 

youdon'tsay.gif

[Brownie19]

I have lost the ability to detect your sarcasm anymore. Perhaps when you took a few days off bjmb you had a change of heart. Maybe that you saw a vision on the road to Blu Jays Way and became born again? I don't know anymore.

 

I love keeping you guessin' Omar.

[mphenhef]

Don't get me wrong, I am worried but the season is far from over. Success can be contagious and there is a path to better days for this team. Vlad's putting up some good numbers, Bo's coming around and we know he can carry a team when he goes on a heater. Turner either turns it around or gets replaced by a Horwitz or Barger who could spark life into the lineup. Once the bats get going a bit, the RPs will not be pitching in high leverage nearly every pitch and that should hopefully help them out a bit. And if none of that happens, at least we will be rid of Atkins

[Omar]

Meanwhile in Buffalo our 26 year olds (or are they 27 now? 28? 30?) are putting up .900 OPS. Really excited for Kasevich and Roden to get up to Buffalo, they should put their kids in school in Buffalo (or find a local wife if no kids yet) set down roots, buy a house or two, invest in a local Wendy's, maybe even join the local school Board.

 

Free Nathan Lukes and his .949 ops NOW!