The Ship is Sinking

[thatoneguy]

This team is nigh unwatchable right now. Entire thing is rotten, blow it up.

[Jimcanuck]

This might be the only solution that makes sense for this front office.

 

Nah. Trade him now and sign him in the offseason is the way to go.

[Jimcanuck]

If not signs of life in the next two weeks, time to clean house, move anything that can be moved for youth, prospects, competitive balance picks.

 

Then elevate a good chunk of the Buffalo roster and see what they can do.

 

This way, the Jays get themselves in the running for a high pick in 2025.

[Carlos Danger]

If not signs of life in the next two weeks, time to clean house, move anything that can be moved for youth, prospects, competitive balance picks.

 

Then elevate a good chunk of the Buffalo roster and see what they can do.

 

This way, the Jays get themselves in the running for a high pick in 2025.

 

Even if signs of life, very well could be a false positive. Weakest schedule they have all year and 6 games against the CWS.

[Masterbather]

Even if signs of life, very well could be a false positive. Weakest schedule they have all year and 6 games against the CWS.

 

White Sox might be the ones to put us out of our misery.

[Dick_Pole]

Terminator is right to reject BigCecil's $500 bet proposal. The Jays are currently +260 to make the playoffs. An even money bet is a huge ripoff for him. Cecil just trying to scam himself into a favorable bet by being mean then likely using a bookie to cover the other side and collect the arbitrage.

[BigCecil]

Terminator is right to reject BigCecil's $500 bet proposal. The Jays are currently +260 to make the playoffs. An even money bet is a huge ripoff for him. Cecil just trying to scam himself into a favorable bet by being mean then likely using a bookie to cover the other side and collect the arbitrage.

 

You sussed out my diabolical plan bud aside from the fact I rarely ever bet and have never had a bookie. No flies on Term.

[Daniel Labude]

The ship sank, but this FO is still at the wheel somehow

[Jimcanuck]

The ship sank, but this FO is still at the wheel somehow

 

FO is good, this is on the players.

[Carlos Danger]

FO is good, this is on the players.

 

Insert Spanky meme with the guy looking bewildered saying WTF.

[PitaBaby]

Well... To be honest we all saw this coming after that paltry off-season. It's a carbon copy of last year, dare I say it, WORSE than last year. At least at this point. Changes really needed to be made from the top to bottom.

 

But hey, It's Early™

[Stangstag]

Even if they have a good stretch winning 8-10 vs DET and CHISOX etc which is entirely possible, I don't see them maintaining the .600 ball they need to for 118 games to get to 90 wins and a playoff spot.

 

Its really difficult to envision a scenario where this team “plays like it should” (and they’d have to do even better than that at this point) in order to make the postseason.

[5ToolPhenom]

Well... To be honest we all saw this coming after that paltry off-season. It's a carbon copy of last year, dare I say it, WORSE than last year. At least at this point. Changes really needed to be made from the top to bottom.

 

But hey, It's Early™

 

You mean to tell me that a 40 years old Justin Turner wasn't going to be enough to turn this team around?!?

[Dick_Pole]

Today's loss courtesy of Atkins 2017 first round draft pick and former top prospect Nate Pearson.

[connorp]

Right now pretty much everyone is unified in disgust and guys like Max even, can read the room and know that now is not their time to spread sunshine.

 

However, the split will likely happen again by season end even if the Jays miss the playoffs. It’ll be along the lines of “After June 23, the Jays were the 3rd best team in the AL”. Same kind of thing for players who have an off year, but some sample size to frame it as bad luck/slow start.

 

This is like 5 years in a row where Jays were supposed to be a Division winner threat, perhaps a little less so this year if you think Baltimore was heavily favored. But still, by May every year it’s clear it’s a pipe dream and we’re going to battle until the end for WC2 or WC3.

 

Then when we’ve gotten in, it’s just to get swept. Again on the W3 thing, if it wasn’t for that, this FO would be seen as a disaster. Hopefully that’s it if there’s no playoffs.

[BCZ]

It's sunk already... on the bottom next to the titanic now.

[Daniel Labude]

FO is good, this is on the players.

 

No they failed miserably, especially with roster construction, coaching, and offensive philosophies and implementation

[Omar]

Probably just sending feelers out in case of the "what if" scenario so they have an idea about the interest out there. Watch and wait.

[BigCecil]

Watching Crochet vs RHH in our line up took me back to '22 wildcard vs Castillo, and both wildcard games in '23 vs MINN when we scored 1 run in 18 innings.

 

I get that in baseball you always have a chance if you make it in if you get on a roll, but this line up lacks talent.

 

Vlad was wiped out by big V his last 2 ABs. Overmatched.

 

Even if we do squeak in again - the other teams will have a 1/2 to match up with out starters. We will always be facing the Crochets of MLB or better.

 

Our pen is a work in progress but I'm not even going to get into it when we get 2 hits and score 0 runs.

[saskjayfan]

Watching Crochet vs RHH in our line up took me back to '22 wildcard vs Castillo, and both wildcard games in '23 vs MINN when we scored 1 run in 18 innings.

 

I get that in baseball you always have a chance if you make it in if you get on a roll, but this line up lacks talent.

 

Vlad was wiped out by big V his last 2 ABs. Overmatched.

 

Even if we do squeak in again - the other teams will have a 1/2 to match up with out starters. We will always be facing the Crochets of MLB or better.

 

Our pen is a work in progress but I'm not even going to get into it when we get 2 hits and score 0 runs.

 

Crochet was good last night and he has good stuff. The Jays had 6 lineouts last night. If a guy has good stuff and every time you square it up it finds a glove you're going to have a tough night. I still think the offense is showing signs of breaking out. Maybe breaking out is the wrong word. Just not being terrible is probably more accurate, last night withstanding.

[max silver]

Watching Crochet vs RHH in our line up took me back to '22 wildcard vs Castillo, and both wildcard games in '23 vs MINN when we scored 1 run in 18 innings.

 

I get that in baseball you always have a chance if you make it in if you get on a roll, but this line up lacks talent.

 

Vlad was wiped out by big V his last 2 ABs. Overmatched.

 

Even if we do squeak in again - the other teams will have a 1/2 to match up with out starters. We will always be facing the Crochets of MLB or better.

 

Our pen is a work in progress but I'm not even going to get into it when we get 2 hits and score 0 runs.

 

Crochet looks to be a legitimate ace in the making so I'll give the offense a small pass on last night's game. Given how dominant he's been in recent weeks I don't think there's actually a lot of better starters in MLB that are better than Crochet is right now.

[BigCecil]

I get the BABIP arguments, and that was a good pitcher. Thats glass half full takes to be sure. Nothing wrong with that. Sample size back to '23 and 47 gms in '24 is getting pretty large.

 

Watching Vlad vs high V he was late with two on in the 7th, and Kopech blew him away in the 9th. I get they are throwing gas but its Vlad. The ABs you would hope would be competitive at least.

[Laika]

Watching Crochet vs RHH in our line up took me back to '22 wildcard vs Castillo, and both wildcard games in '23 vs MINN when we scored 1 run in 18 innings.

 

I get that in baseball you always have a chance if you make it in if you get on a roll, but this line up lacks talent.

 

Vlad was wiped out by big V his last 2 ABs. Overmatched.

 

Even if we do squeak in again - the other teams will have a 1/2 to match up with out starters. We will always be facing the Crochets of MLB or better.

 

Our pen is a work in progress but I'm not even going to get into it when we get 2 hits and score 0 runs.

 

Dunno if I would say that exactly. I thought Crochet and the White Sox got a bit lucky on batted balls last night. Look at these from the scorecard:

 

2nd inning, Bo, 102.2mph lineout at 363 feet, expected BA of .420

 

3rd inning, Clement, 102mph flyout at 366 feet, expected BA of .580

 

4th inning, Jansen, 106.7mph lineout expected BA of .650

4th inning, Vlad, lineout expected BA of .400

 

5th inning, Turner, his double wasn't crushed but it was off the wall and would have been a homer in Minute Maid, funny enough

 

6th inning, IKF 103mph lineout 386 feet expected BA of .550

 

7th inning, Springer, 101.7mph lineout expected BA of .430

 

The two furthest hit balls last night were actually IKF and Clement (tied with the Danny Mendick double)

 

Crochet was throwing strikes and gas. You could say that some of the Jays hitters actually had a decent, aggressive approach against him and it just didn't work out?

 

We did however see the bullpen problems on full display. Leasure and Kopech are really tough so even a s***** team like the White Sox can basically make it game over from the 8th on unless one of those guys is having a weird day. So Toronto after Crochet kind of had to just get to Brebbia...

 

Meanwhile the Jays are using Pop in a close game and then Mayza, who is f***ing brutal and has no stuff and should be sent to Dunedin for a month.

[saskjayfan]

I get the BABIP arguments, and that was a good pitcher. Thats glass half full takes to be sure. Nothing wrong with that. Sample size back to '23 and 47 gms in '24 is getting pretty large.

 

Watching Vlad vs high V he was late with two on in the 7th, and Kopech blew him away in the 9th. I get they are throwing gas but its Vlad. The ABs you would hope would be competitive at least.[/QUOT

 

I know, but it's hard to take too much from a couple ABs. Also my mild optimism doesn't take away from my belief that the front office did a terrible job in the off season addressing the offense! IKF was a ridiculous signing. KK in a vacuum wasn't a bad signing dollar wise and term, but this team really only needed one of Varsho or KK. I'd gladly sacrifice some defense for offense. Turner was the bat they brought in. It hasn't really worked out. Hopefully he turns it around.

[saskjayfan]

I get the BABIP arguments, and that was a good pitcher. Thats glass half full takes to be sure. Nothing wrong with that. Sample size back to '23 and 47 gms in '24 is getting pretty large.

 

Watching Vlad vs high V he was late with two on in the 7th, and Kopech blew him away in the 9th. I get they are throwing gas but its Vlad. The ABs you would hope would be competitive at least.

 

Joc got 9.5 mil. Martinez got 12 mil and 7.5 mil of that was deferred to 2034-38. We signed Turner for 13.5 and his underlying numbers were a tick below his actual numbers last year and he's 39 years old. Atkins is going to lose his job because of some of these decisions if we don't make the playoffs. I hope we make a run and make the playoffs, but I'm ready to give someone other than Atkins the reigns.

[Brownie19]

Joc got 9.5 mil. Martinez got 12 mil and 7.5 mil of that was deferred to 2034-38. We signed Turner for 13.5 and his underlying numbers were a tick below his actual numbers last year and he's 39 years old. Atkins is going to lose his job because of some of these decisions if we don't make the playoffs. I hope we make a run and make the playoffs, but I'm ready to give someone other than Atkins the reigns.

 

I believe Joc wanted to stay on the west coast.

 

Again, the team could have signed Ohtani and it wouldn't have moved the needle. This offense sucks balls. For Atkins to have salvaged this season, he would have had to trade Vlad, Bo, Kirk and Springer this past offseason, while getting MLB ready contributors to replace them. Maybe that was possible? Maybe it wasn't. The team ultimately decided to roll the dice on these guys performing to their capabilities and that's proven to be the wrong decision.

[max silver]

I believe Joc wanted to stay on the west coast.

 

Again, the team could have signed Ohtani and it wouldn't have moved the needle. This offense sucks balls. For Atkins to have salvaged this season, he would have had to trade Vlad, Bo, Kirk and Springer this past offseason, while getting MLB ready contributors to replace them. Maybe that was possible? Maybe it wasn't. The team ultimately decided to roll the dice on these guys performing to their capabilities and that's proven to be the wrong decision.

 

I would tend to think a 10 win DH type of bat would make a massive difference to the offense but I'm just spitballing.

[Laika]

Joc got 9.5 mil. Martinez got 12 mil and 7.5 mil of that was deferred to 2034-38. We signed Turner for 13.5 and his underlying numbers were a tick below his actual numbers last year and he's 39 years old. Atkins is going to lose his job because of some of these decisions if we don't make the playoffs. I hope we make a run and make the playoffs, but I'm ready to give someone other than Atkins the reigns.

 

Hard to criticize without knowing if the other options were even willing to sign here

 

For all we know JDM was asking for $20M up until he capitulated and signed with the Mets and maybe Pederson never entertained Toronto

[BigCecil]

Joc got 9.5 mil. Martinez got 12 mil and 7.5 mil of that was deferred to 2034-38. We signed Turner for 13.5 and his underlying numbers were a tick below his actual numbers last year and he's 39 years old. Atkins is going to lose his job because of some of these decisions if we don't make the playoffs. I hope we make a run and make the playoffs, but I'm ready to give someone other than Atkins the reigns.

 

I had a look over the weekend. We invested $50M AAV this off season into a collective that has produced 0.4 WAR ish thus far in 2024.

 

They doubled down on pitching (Yariel & Green) and D (IKF & KK). JT @ 40 for that cost projecting 105 as DH was always an odd signing.

 

The '23 off season median cost/WAR for FAs was down to $4.4M from over $8M in '22 off season.

 

Tyler O'Neil, Pham, JDM and hell even Paul DeJong, Ahmed Rosario have been worth more alone that our $50M AAV investments, and for cheaper. For all the early criticism of the Chappy signing, he is up to 1.1 WAR now and has his WRC+ at 108. We will never REALLY know who they could have closed to sign here, but they did have $50M AAV to invest.

Anyway...we have had this debate a million times. I think this off season sucked overall given our gaps. We need ISO. Others disagree. This team's issues run deeper than one or two signings this off season. Its more about the "waves" of impact talent that hasn't come than any signing this off season. Drafting and development has been a massive Achilles heel and this FOs' biggest failing.

Edited May 23, 2024 by BigCecil

[Brownie19]

I would tend to think a 10 win DH type of bat would make a massive difference to the offense but I'm just spitballing.

 

Obviously it would help, but it wouldn't make us a contender. We're the 2nd worst in runs scored and 8th worst in wRC+

 

If we signed Ohtani, we wouldn't have signed Turner....Turner had a 162 wRC+ as of April 29th and our offense was still a steaming pile of dog s***. This team is MILES away from being a contender. Ohtani alone wouldn't change that.