Around Baseball 2024

[Brownie19]

Fans will cite 2-3 free agents that provided the MOST value of all the free agents and claim they KNEW would be awesome this year and rip the FO for not signing them.

 

I would have been ok with a 3/45 last year with no options. He had enough of a track record to bet on, especially for this franchise. It was a poor decision not to bring him back last year, which I called out at the time.

 

Jays24 - confirmed to be smarter than every GM in MLB. Jays24 to replace Atkins immediately.

[Jays24]

Jays24 - confirmed to be smarter than every GM in MLB. Jays24 to replace Atkins immediately.

 

Bringing Teo back last year is hardly a crazy statement, especially when the alternative was bringing back KK on a 10.5M deal. You'd have to be foolish to think his Seattle performance was going to stay that way. I've said countless times that a player who turns down a multi year deal for a 1 year deal is someone who I'd bet on more often than not.

 

Also, it isn't hard to outperform Atkins the past few season... most of this board except the Shatkin stans would have done a better job. Just take your L's and take a backseat to others who have consistently proven you wrong lol.

[max silver]

Bringing Teo back last year is hardly a crazy statement, especially when the alternative was bringing back KK on a 10.5M deal. You'd have to be foolish to think his Seattle performance was going to stay that way. I've said countless times that a player who turns down a multi year deal for a 1 year deal is someone who I'd bet on more often than not.

 

Also, it isn't hard to outperform Atkins the past few season... most of this board except the Shatkin stans would have done a better job. Just take your L's and take a backseat to others who have consistently proven you wrong lol.

 

You seemed to have missed how Teoscar wasn't offered a multi year deal by a single GM in the sport last offseason, which was why he was forced to take a 1 year deal in the first place.

 

I can only guess the team was holding out hope on eventually bringing back Matt Chapman, and that the remaining available dollars basically forced them to choose between one of Chapman/Teoscar on top of Kiermaier.

[Jays24]

You seemed to have missed how Teoscar wasn't offered a multi year deal by a single GM in the sport last offseason, which was why he was forced to take a 1 year deal in the first place.

 

Thought I read he turned down much lower AAV on a 2/3 year deal. Based on how much he got for 1 year, logic would suggest he didn't get a big enough deal to make him pass that up, could be wrong. Point still remains that our franchise of all franchises should have known what Teo can provide.

[Brownie19]

Yeah heaven forbid the team has a successful offseason and can enjoy more years of success instead of an immediate rebuild, that would be positively awful.

 

I'm actually going to agree with Masterbather. This market may prove to be too hot for the Jays to fill the holes they need to compete this year. If the hot market helps us avoid someone like Santander for 4 years $110M - then I think that's a good thing. I personally don't want to see the Jays make a bunch of shortsighted moved to "compete" in 2025, if it's going to handcuff us for future years. I don't want to be the Red Sox, who added JD Martinez and other big contracts, and then couldn't afford to keep Mookie Betts.

 

Luis Severino getting 3 years $67M is f***ing insane. He's thown more than 102 innings exactly once in the past 5 years, and he's not even that good anymore. He's a 4+ xFIP pitcher with a K/9 <8. No he did improve in the 2nd half last year, but he reminds me of Noah Syndergaard at this point. If he's worth $22.3M AAV, then Burnes might be looking at $35M+

 

These FA contracts have been pretty gross so far. The Angels are looking brilliant right now for jumping the market and landing Kikuchi.

[Jays24]

I'm actually going to agree with Masterbather. .

 

 

HOLY s*** GUYS... we got them to disagree lol.

[max silver]

I'm actually going to agree with Masterbather. This market may prove to be too hot for the Jays to fill the holes they need to compete this year. If the hot market helps us avoid someone like Santander for 4 years $110M - then I think that's a good thing. I personally don't want to see the Jays make a bunch of shortsighted moved to "compete" in 2025, if it's going to handcuff us for future years. I don't want to be the Red Sox, who added JD Martinez and other big contracts, and then couldn't afford to keep Mookie Betts.

 

Luis Severino getting 3 years $67M is f***ing insane. He's thown more than 102 innings exactly once in the past 5 years, and he's not even that good anymore. He's a 4+ xFIP pitcher with a K/9 <8. No he did improve in the 2nd half last year, but he reminds me of Noah Syndergaard at this point. If he's worth $22.3M AAV, then Burnes might be looking at $35M+

 

These FA contracts have been pretty gross so far. The Angels are looking brilliant right now for jumping the market and landing Kikuchi.

 

I think the Red Sox could have afforded Mookie Betts easily based on the size of that market, but ownership was not willing to offer him a fair market value contract for a player of his talent level.

 

I'm fine with the team handing out 3/4 year contracts as if these don't ultimately work out and Vlad/Bo leave etc. the team is going to be forced to rebuild anyway whether these players are signed or not. If these deals work out in the early years the team will have a good shot to at least compete for wild card spots in the meantime, and if they don't work the team will suck and will rebuild anyway. Having these deals on the ledger aren't going to be the thing holding the team back from being competitive at that point, it will just mean more ownership money is being spent on a s***** team vs ownership pocketing more profits. Ownership has shown that they are willing to greenlight higher payrolls so the team can simply ride out these deals while rebuilding in the meantime.

 

Pitching looks to be obscenely expensive up to this point but it remains to be seen if the position player market prices are similar in nature.

[Brownie19]

I think the Red Sox could have afforded Mookie Betts easily based on the size of that market, but ownership was not willing to offer him a fair market value contract for a player of his talent level.

 

I'm fine with the team handing out 3/4 year contracts as if these don't ultimately work out and Vlad/Bo leave etc. the team is going to be forced to rebuild anyway whether these players are signed or not. If these deals work out in the early years the team will have a good shot to at least compete for wild card spots in the meantime, and if they don't work the team will suck and will rebuild anyway. Having these deals on the ledger aren't going to be the thing holding the team back from being competitive at that point, it will just mean more ownership money is being spent on a s***** team vs ownership pocketing more profits. Ownership has shown that they are willing to greenlight higher payrolls so the team can simply ride out these deals while rebuilding in the meantime.

 

Pitching looks to be obscenely expensive up to this point but it remains to be seen if the position player market prices are similar in nature.

 

That's fair. If they rebuild, they'll probably cut payroll way down anyway, negating the impacts of an overpaid FA. 3-4 years though - more than that and it gets dicey. Overpaid players will still impact the team though.

[jaysblue]

Would have thought with the abundance of FA arms available, adding a mid-rotation starter wouldn't have been that expensive. Though when Matt Boyd is getting $14.5M AAV and Luis Severino is getting $22M AAV, just yikes!

 

Might as well roll with Francis and Y-Rod in the #4-5 spots and use that money elsewhere like upgrading the BP and adding two power bats to the lineups which are the biggest needs.

 

If they want to add another starter, might have to be via trade. Trading for Matz and his $11M AAV for next season doesn't look that bad now actually.

 

As for FA arms, might have to look at someone like Griffin Canning or Spencer Turnbull if they sign around $5M on a one-year deal. Canning is durable, put up a 1.8 WAR season in 2023 and is still under 30. Turnbull looked impressive in Philly last season when he was on the mound.

[jaysblue]

When you think about it, last offseason was the time to be shopping the FA market. So many great FA deals and all short term.

 

Snell: 2 years/$62M

Lugo: 3 years/$45M

Wacha: 2 years/$32M

Stroman: 2 years/$37M

Manaea: 2 years/$28M

Flaherty: 1 year/$14M

 

Teo: 1 year/$23M

Pederson: 1 year/$12.5M

Santana: 1 year/$5.2M

[Spanky__99]

Luis Severino is signing for the largest guarantee in the history of the Athletics franchise.

 

 

Whoa!

[Terminator]

When you think about it, last offseason was the time to be shopping the FA market. So many great FA deals and all short term.

 

Snell: 2 years/$62M

Lugo: 3 years/$45M

Wacha: 2 years/$32M

Stroman: 2 years/$37M

Manaea: 2 years/$28M

Flaherty: 1 year/$14M

 

Teo: 1 year/$23M

Pederson: 1 year/$12.5M

Santana: 1 year/$5.2M

 

Add Matt Chapman to the list

[G-Snarls]

Freddie Freeman had to have surgery on his ankle

[Jimcanuck]

Shatkins gonna let othe teams blow their load then grab what's left at value pricing

[BTS]

Shatkins gonna let othe teams blow their load then grab what's left at value pricing

 

That's the path to 75 wins.

[L54]

That's the path to 75 wins.

 

With a little good luck variance that’s a WS contender

[Carlos Danger]

Shatkins gonna let othe teams blow their load then grab what's left at value pricing

 

We are trying to build a competitive baseball team, not follow your late hour nightclub strategy

[glory]

Shatkins gonna let othe teams blow their load then grab what's left at value pricing

 

I think it's the opposite. They'll massively overpay a free agent. It remains to be seen which one it is, I'm sure they'll aim as high as possible and see which FA is willing to take their deal, but I can't imagine they'll be hunting value this winter. They'll go for the biggest FA they can get.

[Jays24]

With a little good luck variance that’s a WS contender

 

Gonna wait for Max and Brownie to provide us statistics backing this comment up and how it's the right play this off-season lol.

[L54]

Gonna wait for Max and Brownie to provide us statistics backing this comment up and how it's the right play this off-season lol.

 

😂😂😂

[L54]

I think it's the opposite. They'll massively overpay a free agent. It remains to be seen which one it is, I'm sure they'll aim as high as possible and see which FA is willing to take their deal, but I can't imagine they'll be hunting value this winter. They'll go for the biggest FA they can get.

 

I agree with everybody who says if this is the case I hope nobody takes their money. Honestly I cringe at the thought of paying Anthony Santander 27M for the next 4 years or Corbin Burnes 210M over 7 years

 

Adames and Bregman I’d be interested committing to but don’t love either of them

 

If these prices stay inflated it will be a losing battle trying to plug all the holes. Sign some 1-2 year flyers and reassess in July

[Terminator]

Yeah we probably aren't plugging all of the holes but the "holes" just aren't that bad.

 

If we didn't sign a single free agent we'd be projected to get average or better production out in the field everywhere except for the Buffalo Boy slop we'd be trotting out in LF. The rotation wouldn't be bad either. The bullpen would be horrid.

 

That said, 2026 is looking real dicey with Vlad and Bo being FAs and the rotation getting another year older.

 

So maybe you are right, the play should be 1-2 year deals. Conforto, Moncada, Lance Lynn, and 3 relievers. WC3 contention will be easy to make.

[jaysblue]

Bargain bin shopping can be fun. Reminds me of the days when JPR was the GM here in his early years haha. I do believe the Jays will still be spending money, but won't be for the Tier 1 or 2 guys unfortunately since their prices have inflated. They might have to bargain hunt for other spots on the roster.

 

My bargain bin shopping list:

 

First two guys aren't really bargain FA signings, but if the Jays were to spend money, would sign these guys based on needs, cost and upside they offer.

 

- OF Tyler O'Neill (3 years/$42M): need to add thump to this lineup and when healthy O'Neill offers that. He's also still just 29 and offers some decent upside, which the Jays need to take a gamble on. Doubt he returns to being a 5 WAR player like he was in 2021, but out of all the outfielders/DH's not named Soto, he offers that kind of upside. All we need O'Neill is to be a 3-4 WAR guy and hit 30+ HR's. I've warmed up about signing him to a 3 year deal since Vladdy and Bo are both impending FA's after 2025, so at least the Jays would have a bat with some thump in 2026 at a decent cost.

 

Jeff Hoffman (4 years/$48M): need to add a high leverage reliever and Hoffman has been really darn good the past two seasons (1.5 and 2 WAR seasons). Would automatically make him the closer and at $12M AAV wouldn't be a bad price at all. He might cost more, so Jays might have to add an extra year maybe or up his salary by 1-2M. If Severino is getting paid $22M to barely crack 2 WAR, would rather sign Hoffman at around $12M AAV who can provide the same WAR possibly.

 

A.J. Minter (1 year/$8M): another high leverage arm who is a lefty, Minter would be a nice fit. Maybe at most he gets a second year tacked on. Has closing experience as well in case Hoffman can't handle the role from the start. Previous years had seasons of 1.3, 2 and 1.4 WAR. Might be a cheap way to add some WAR given the inflated prices of starters so far.

 

- Yoán Moncada (1 year/$5M): still only 29 and has some prior seasons where he was really solid. Worth rolling the dice on if he comes cheap and might get lucky he has a rejuvenated season. If he doesn't pan out, always have Clement who can start at 3B for an extended period if need be.

 

- SP Griffin Canning (1 year/$4M): I think the starting rotation is really down on their list right now, especially after seeing what arms like Severino and Boyd got as FA's. Rotation is actually fine as is if everyone is healthy, but depth is an issue. Atkins has always loved to target durable arms who can stay healthy and Canning fits that bill. He's still only 28 and posted a 1.8 WAR season in 2023. Maybe Pete Walker unlocks some more potential with him. Sign Canning to be the No. 5 starter and use Y-Rod in the bullpen to start the season and see if he can carve out a high leverage role. Kinda like filling two holes with one move. If Canning struggles, can always move Y-Rod into the rotation.

 

So far all those moves would cost the Jays around $43M with some extra bucks left over to sign a backup C and maybe another reliever on the cheap. If Jays want to spoil themselves, sign Carson Kelly or bring back Dany Jansen on a one-year deal. Or just sign Reese McGuire for $1-2M.

 

If the Jays wanted to go cheaper on adding an outfielder, Conforto (2 years/$18-20M) instead of O'Neill. Horwitz I'm assuming will DH still with Wagner at 2B.

 

Lineup:

 

C Kirk/Kelly

1B Guerrero

2B Wagner

3B Moncada

SS Bichette

LF O'Neill

CF Varsho

RF Springer

DH Horwitz

 

BN Clement

BN Loperfido

BN Schneider/Jimenez/Barger

 

Rotation:

1) Gausman

2) Berrios

3) Bassitt

4) Francis

5) Canning

 

Bullpen:

RHP Hoffman

LHP Minter

RHP Swanson

RHP Y-Rodriguez

RHP Green

RHP Burr

LHP Little

Another FA reliever

 

As the Term would say, WC3 will be easy to make!

[Olerud363]

If we didn't sign a single free agent we'd be projected to get average or better production out in the field everywhere except for the Buffalo Boy slop we'd be trotting out in LF. The rotation wouldn't be bad either. The bullpen would be horrid.

 

Roden, Loperfido, Davis Schneider, Lukes, Clase

 

You should be able to use advanced analytics to optimize matchups and allocate playing time and get a decent player out of that.

 

Lukes could be the left field Ernie Clement. Not saying he is, but modern analytics using bat speed*, batted ball profile and other metrics should be able to pick up who is playing well before the traditional stats and you can separate slop from a decent player.

 

* bat speed may not work for some of the Buffalo Boys as there is some evidence (Kwan) that low bat speed can lead to average to slightly above average hitting for some players (though this type of player needs D to be a regular)

[L54]

Yeah we probably aren't plugging all of the holes but the "holes" just aren't that bad.

 

If we didn't sign a single free agent we'd be projected to get average or better production out in the field everywhere except for the Buffalo Boy slop we'd be trotting out in LF. The rotation wouldn't be bad either. The bullpen would be horrid.

 

That said, 2026 is looking real dicey with Vlad and Bo being FAs and the rotation getting another year older.

 

So maybe you are right, the play should be 1-2 year deals. Conforto, Moncada, Lance Lynn, and 3 relievers. WC3 contention will be easy to make.

 

I don’t see anything wrong with that tbh

 

It’s better than overpaying for one of these guys that look like a land mine

[Barrelsandbombs]

Here's how Fangraphs Depth Charts WAR projections currently projects the Jays by position:

 

Total: 40.2 fWAR (8th in AL)

Position players: 28.5 fWAR (4th in AL)

SP: 10.6 fWAR (12th in AL)

RP: 1.1 fWAR (13th in AL)

 

Position player breakdown:

C: 4.8 fWAR (3rd in AL)

1B: 4.7 fWAR (1st in AL)

2B: 3.4 fWAR (4th in AL)

SS: 3.8 fWAR (6th in AL)

3B: 3.2 fWAR (6th in AL)

LF: 1.3 fWAR (15th in AL)

CF: 3.2 fWAR (6th in AL)

RF: 2 fWAR (11th in AL)

DH: 2 fWAR (4th in AL)

 

Starters and relievers combine to project to be 4th worst in the American League, so I'm not sure the pitching staff holes can be left unplugged.

 

Might be better to leave the hole in LF unplugged if need be, as the position player group already projects to be 4th best in the American League. Or just leave bullpen holes unplugged because big dollars shouldn't be spent there anyway.

[Brownie19]

I agree with everybody who says if this is the case I hope nobody takes their money. Honestly I cringe at the thought of paying Anthony Santander 27M for the next 4 years or Corbin Burnes 210M over 7 years

 

Adames and Bregman I’d be interested committing to but don’t love either of them

 

If these prices stay inflated it will be a losing battle trying to plug all the holes. Sign some 1-2 year flyers and reassess in July

 

I wonder how much pressure they have to contend this year to increase their chances of keeping Vlad (and to keep their jobs?). I've said since the offseason started that this team should start the rebuild. Look to sign short term vets, give yourself a small probability for a miracle season, but be in a position to sell, sell, sell at the deadline. I still think that's the right approach, but that might have a significant barring on their ability to lock up Vlad.

 

It is insane to think Vlad is likely going to get $500M+ now. I don't trust him (I don't even like him), but I do appreciate the possibility he becomes a f***ing beast over the next 5-6 years. Perhaps it is worth potentially shooting yourself in the foot if it means you can keep Vlad. I don't know.

[glory]

I agree with everybody who says if this is the case I hope nobody takes their money. Honestly I cringe at the thought of paying Anthony Santander 27M for the next 4 years or Corbin Burnes 210M over 7 years

 

Adames and Bregman I’d be interested committing to but don’t love either of them

 

If these prices stay inflated it will be a losing battle trying to plug all the holes. Sign some 1-2 year flyers and reassess in July

 

Yeah no position player other than Soto is all that appealing to me on long, expensive contracts. Best case if the Jays do in fact give out a stupid contract is it goes to Burnes or Fried (obviously assuming Soto is out). Those two pitchers on 7 year deals probably wont age well either but at least it’s a position of extreme weakness in the organization.

 

A short term oriented off season with an emphasis on upside (and not whatever last winter was) would definitely be the best way to go given the market. I just don’t think the front office will operate like that. Not this winter. Unless Shapiro’s already been extended and we haven’t heard anything yet.

[L54]

I wonder how much pressure they have to contend this year to increase their chances of keeping Vlad (and to keep their jobs?). I've said since the offseason started that this team should start the rebuild. Look to sign short term vets, give yourself a small probability for a miracle season, but be in a position to sell, sell, sell at the deadline. I still think that's the right approach, but that might have a significant barring on their ability to lock up Vlad.

 

It is insane to think Vlad is likely going to get $500M+ now. I don't trust him (I don't even like him), but I do appreciate the possibility he becomes a f***ing beast over the next 5-6 years. Perhaps it is worth potentially shooting yourself in the foot if it means you can keep Vlad. I don't know.

 

I’d imagine the pressure is huge to compete which makes this org such a mess currently. I’d rather extend them for three years than have them making decisions as if their jobs depend on it

[L54]

Yeah no position player other than Soto is all that appealing to me on long, expensive contracts. Best case if the Jays do in fact give out a stupid contract is it goes to Burnes or Fried (obviously assuming Soto is out). Those two pitchers on 7 year deals probably wont age well either but at least it’s a position of extreme weakness in the organization.

 

A short term oriented off season with an emphasis on upside (and not whatever last winter was) would definitely be the best way to go given the market. I just don’t think the front office will operate like that. Not this winter. Unless Shapiro’s already been extended and we haven’t heard anything yet.

 

Ya I hear you. I think they know too what is the smart play vs the Hail Mary which makes the whole thing even more frustrating