Around Baseball 2024

[glory]

Good for Kikuchi. Opting out of that Seattle deal 3 years ago basically led to ~$100 million (Jays deal plus this one). Of course not sure if congratulations are in order any time someone signs with the Angels but get your money where you can get it.

[John_Havok]

Yeah, the counting stats matter to me even if I probably take Felix's peak by a hair. 3500 innings is crazy, and he has 3000 Ks and 250 wins. Huge part of a World Series winner in 2009 too.

 

Plus so many of Felix's Seattle teams were dumpster fires

[Spanky__99]

First HoF ballot is in. Not terrible given that no PED guys were going to be picked.

 

 

Where's Beltran, man? Does dude know he can select up to 10?

[Spanky__99]

Kikuchi to the Angels 63/3

 

 

Nice for Kooch, he ain't winning anything there, though. lol

[BTS]

Where's Beltran, man? Does dude know he can select up to 10?

 

A bunch of people won't vote for Beltran because he was a main guy behind the Astros cheating.

[Brownie19]

What do we think about this Kikuchi contract? What does it tell us about the SPing market? Personally, I think that seems about right. I think 3 years is about right. I think a 4th or 5th year would have been a sign the market is hot and you have to overpay. I also think $21M AAV seems about right. Did LA get a deal by jumping the market like this?

[Brownie19]

On first pass, I dont agree with CC over Felix, id probably have voted for them both. I can understand people dinging Felix for his career ending early though.

 

I think Utley should get in too.

 

If you're going to look at peaks and ignore longevity - then I think David Wright deserves a look. He was basically 50 WAR by age 30 and then the back injuries took over. That said, I'm always torn on how to consider longevity...

[Pendleton]

What do we think about this Kikuchi contract? What does it tell us about the SPing market? Personally, I think that seems about right. I think 3 years is about right. I think a 4th or 5th year would have been a sign the market is hot and you have to overpay. I also think $21M AAV seems about right. Did LA get a deal by jumping the market like this?

 

If I'm another pitcher in that second tier (Buehler, Eovaldi, Pivetta, Manaea, Severino, Bieber), I'd look at Kikuchi and Wacha signing for 63M/3 and 51M/3, plus the overall amount of talent available this off season - as a sign to take the bird in hand in terms of accepting the best deal they can get sooner rather than later. If they try to wait out the market, I feel like someone from that list may end up getting squeezed out of the money.

[Orgfiller]

What do we think about this Kikuchi contract? What does it tell us about the SPing market? Personally, I think that seems about right. I think 3 years is about right. I think a 4th or 5th year would have been a sign the market is hot and you have to overpay. I also think $21M AAV seems about right. Did LA get a deal by jumping the market like this?

 

If you look at some of the predictions, MLBTR had him getting 3/60 so bang on there, fangraphs' Ben Clemens had him at 3/51, while the fangraphs median crowd had him at 3/54, so hard to say if people there were misreading the SP market and Kikuchi's performance the last 2 seasons - including an excellent stretch with Houston entering FA - or this was an Angels overpay to secure a player that might prefer going to a contender for slightly less. Seems fair and agreed that 3 years is what Kikuchi should have gotten, you could argue the AAV is a tad on the high side but nothing egregious.

[Terminator]

Yeah and to add, jumping the market and getting a guy to sign this early in FA probably adds a little bit of a premium as well.

[xposbrad]

What do we think about this Kikuchi contract? What does it tell us about the SPing market? Personally, I think that seems about right. I think 3 years is about right. I think a 4th or 5th year would have been a sign the market is hot and you have to overpay. I also think $21M AAV seems about right. Did LA get a deal by jumping the market like this?

 

I figured 3/45 was about right. I would rather spend like 8-9m more a year and get Fried without even thinking about it

[Orgfiller]

I figured 3/45 was about right. I would rather spend like 8-9m more a year and get Fried without even thinking about it

 

You realize Fried is likely to get double what Kikuchi got right? Projections have Fried netting a 5-6 year deal at a total of $140-160M. This while projecting for roughly the same next season - Kikuchi 2.9 WAR, Fried 3.2. Kikuchi actually slightly edges out Fried the last two seasons and has no major injury history to speak of, with the biggest caveat being that obviously he's 3 years older.

[jaysblue]

What do we think about this Kikuchi contract? What does it tell us about the SPing market? Personally, I think that seems about right. I think 3 years is about right. I think a 4th or 5th year would have been a sign the market is hot and you have to overpay. I also think $21M AAV seems about right. Did LA get a deal by jumping the market like this?

 

Pretty much identical to what Chris Bassitt signed for two years ago.

 

Deal feels about right to me as well for a mid-rotation arm. Perfect length and respectable AAV. Kikuchi at least offers some huge K potential.

 

Other mid-rotation guys like Eovaldi, Severino, Pivetta, Maneaa, Heaney, all likely sign similar deals or a bit less.

[jaysblue]

I figured 3/45 was about right. I would rather spend like 8-9m more a year and get Fried without even thinking about it

 

Fried likely will command a 5 or 6 year deal and probably between $25-30M AAV.

 

Would rather sign Snell to be honest!

[BTS]

Another ballot. Jones, Wagner, CC, and Ichiro are all 2/2. I think all 4 get in this year.

 

[Jimcanuck]

This is Martin's first yr of eligibility right? Sure hope he isn't a one and done

[John_Havok]

If you're going to look at peaks and ignore longevity - then I think David Wright deserves a look. He was basically 50 WAR by age 30 and then the back injuries took over. That said, I'm always torn on how to consider longevity...

 

Its not so much ignoring longevity... just not quite giving as much credit for it as some do, especially since those extra seasons of CC weren't really close to his peak talents, just slightly above average. On the other hand, when a guy can reinvent himself with worse stuff in order to pitch later on in this career, it's no reason to argue against him either.

 

I guess it just sucks to not see Felix go in, who I think is the better pitcher.

[John_Havok]

Soto has reportedly received official offers from 5 teams this week.

[Brownie19]

Its not so much ignoring longevity... just not quite giving as much credit for it as some do, especially since those extra seasons of CC weren't really close to his peak talents, just slightly above average. On the other hand, when a guy can reinvent himself with worse stuff in order to pitch later on in this career, it's no reason to argue against him either.

 

I guess it just sucks to not see Felix go in, who I think is the better pitcher.

 

Love this debate. It's one worth having every year. There is no right answer. King Felix was a f***ing special pitcher man.

[Brownie19]

This is Martin's first yr of eligibility right? Sure hope he isn't a one and done

 

Martin and Brian McCann I believe. Catchers with 50+ fWAR deserve some f***ing votes (there's only 16 in history). IMO - both deserve to be in the HOF. I believe catchers are grossly under represented and they are 2 of the best of all-time. They are right there with Yadi and Mauer - just without some of the hardware. Martin and McCann are statistically the 3rd and 4th best defensive catchers of all-time (yes I know those stats have question marks). It would be criminal to keep Martin and McCann out and put someone like Sal Perez in eventually.

[BTS]

Martin and Brian McCann I believe. Catchers with 50+ fWAR deserve some f***ing votes (there's only 16 in history). IMO - both deserve to be in the HOF. I believe catchers are grossly under represented and they are 2 of the best of all-time. They are right there with Yadi and Mauer - just without some of the hardware. Martin and McCann are statistically the 3rd and 4th best defensive catchers of all-time (yes I know those stats have question marks). It would be criminal to keep Martin and McCann out and put someone like Sal Perez in eventually.

 

Agreed on all accounts. Unfortunately I expect Martin and McCann to fall off the ballot this year, even though they're comparable to two guys who will get in on the first ballot in Mauer and Yadi. Perez might also be a first ballot guy when the time comes.

[Orgfiller]

Its not so much ignoring longevity... just not quite giving as much credit for it as some do, especially since those extra seasons of CC weren't really close to his peak talents, just slightly above average. On the other hand, when a guy can reinvent himself with worse stuff in order to pitch later on in this career, it's no reason to argue against him either.

 

I guess it just sucks to not see Felix go in, who I think is the better pitcher.

 

It definitely sucks that Felix won't get in due to just missing a few extra years of average performance in his 30s. He was a true ace and defining pitcher of his era, basically the kind of guy that tends to be a shoo-in Hall of Famer. With that said, I think we're underrating CC here, they're much closer in careers up until Felix's downfall than one might think. CC started out as a 20 year old with 180 IP in the peak of the steroid era and was good right away. Felix had a slightly earlier start at 19 with 80 IP of elite performance. Both settled as good-not-great pitchers for a few years until breaking out as bonafide aces, for CC that was at age 25, for Felix 23. They then had identical 6 year peaks of elite (5+ WAR) performance. Felix subsequently fell off a cliff immediately, whereas CC had one more very good season at age 31 before dealing with injury and reinventing himself to round out his career as a crafty vet with average results as his velo declined further and further - not to mention his struggles with alcoholism which he overcame. Both had a Cy Young and 6 All-Star games, Sabathia arguably could've had one additional major trophy as his best season came when he was traded between leagues midway through the year.

 

All in all, Sabathia's entire career encompassed Felix's, 2001-2019 vs 2005-2019. Sabathia will be a deserving first ballot HOF IMO, especially in this era where pitchers just don't accumulate as many innings as they used to.

[BTS]

McCann and Martin are now 0-5 on HoF ballots

[Brownie19]

McCann and Martin are now 0-5 on HoF ballots

 

f***ing morons.

[John_Havok]

Soto has reportedly received official offers from 5 teams this week.

 

Just adding on, the 5 teams that have offers out to Soto are the Jays, Yanks, Mets, Red Sox and Dodgers.

 

Im guessing this process is similar to what Ohtani did last year. IE, gave a specific demand and said talk to us if you're cool with that, make any add-ons you think might help, send it over and we'll call you when you win Friedman

[Spanky__99]

McCann and Martin are now 0-5 on HoF ballots

 

How many ballots get entered?

[John_Havok]

It definitely sucks that Felix won't get in due to just missing a few extra years of average performance in his 30s. He was a true ace and defining pitcher of his era, basically the kind of guy that tends to be a shoo-in Hall of Famer. With that said, I think we're underrating CC here, they're much closer in careers up until Felix's downfall than one might think. CC started out as a 20 year old with 180 IP in the peak of the steroid era and was good right away. Felix had a slightly earlier start at 19 with 80 IP of elite performance. Both settled as good-not-great pitchers for a few years until breaking out as bonafide aces, for CC that was at age 25, for Felix 23. They then had identical 6 year peaks of elite (5+ WAR) performance. Felix subsequently fell off a cliff immediately, whereas CC had one more very good season at age 31 before dealing with injury and reinventing himself to round out his career as a crafty vet with average results as his velo declined further and further - not to mention his struggles with alcoholism which he overcame. Both had a Cy Young and 6 All-Star games, Sabathia arguably could've had one additional major trophy as his best season came when he was traded between leagues midway through the year.

 

All in all, Sabathia's entire career encompassed Felix's, 2001-2019 vs 2005-2019. Sabathia will be a deserving first ballot HOF IMO, especially in this era where pitchers just don't accumulate as many innings as they used to.

 

I disagree with none of what you said. I think Felix was a better pitcher, but like, by thin margins. It's not even 1a and 1b its like 1A+ and 1A. I get why he likely won't get in, and it sucks donkey balls. CC deserves to get in for sure.

[hanton]

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/11/dodgers-blake-snell-agree-to-five-year-deal.html

 

Snell to the Dodgers

 

182M/5

[Stangstag]

Nice, Dodgers just totally f***ed the market.

 

Seriously f*** the Dodgers

[Spanky__99]

Nice, Dodgers just totally f***ed the market.

 

Seriously f*** the Dodgers

 

How so? Projected to go 5/160 and this contract's with deferrals. I agree with f*** the Dodgers though, lol. They'll sign Teo next.