Around Baseball 2024

[jaysblue]

Atlanta had a glass cannon Ace, who is now hurt

And then two geriatrics in Sale and Morton and a career reliever in Reynaldo Lopez

 

The two rotations never had and do not have the same risk profile

 

See Chris Bassitt's recent comments about not being part of a rotation that "chases velocity"

 

 

 

Being said you can even say good things about Toronto's depth if you have a more positive bias. Manoah in AAA trying to figure it out is arguably a luxury piece of depth. Francis has objectively good stuff per the models.

 

Strider was pretty durable during his first two seasons. Sucks he got injured, but never viewed him as a glass cannon arm.

 

Morton has been really solid and durable even at his age. Can you please tell me how is he any different than Bassitt?

 

Sale has been really solid to start the season and looks healthy. Has gone 7 innings in each of his last two starts. Last season posted a 2.1 WAR and 10.96K/9 in 20 starts with Boston. He looked real good when on the mound. Was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball and now looks healthy. Not bad to roll the dice on him as your 3rd or 4th starter.

 

Fried has had a slow start, but he should finish with respectable numbers. He's not as flashy as someone like Strider was, but a very solid 1A or No. 2 starter.

 

Lopez has looked great out of the rotation thus far. It's still early and only 3 starts, but can't complain about the results. He used to be a starter previously as well, so it's not like he's been a career reliever as you just stated.

[Laika]

Strider was pretty durable during his first two seasons. Sucks he got injured, but never viewed him as a glass cannon arm.

 

Morton has been really solid and durable even at his age. Can you please tell me how is he any different than Bassitt?

 

Sale has been really solid to start the season and looks healthy. Has gone 7 innings in each of his last two starts. Last season posted a 2.1 WAR and 10.96K/9 in 20 starts with Boston. He looked real good when on the mound. Was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball and now looks healthy. Not bad to roll the dice on him as your 3rd or 4th starter.

 

Fried has had a slow start, but he should finish with respectable numbers. He's not as flashy as someone like Strider was, but a very solid 1A or No. 2 starter.

 

Lopez has looked great out of the rotation thus far. It's still early and only 3 starts, but can't complain about the results. He used to be a starter previously as well, so it's not like he's been a career reliever as you just stated.

 

Strider had TJS in school and throws hard and near his max

Morton is 40. Literally forty years old. Forty.

Chris Sale is.... Chris Sale? What does "looks healthy" even mean the guy is f***ing 35 with bad mechanics and the last time he made 25 starts was pre-Covid.

Lopez did not throw more than 66 innings from 2020 through 2023. It's not like he can just go 175 this year for them.

Fried had a semi-serious elbow/forearm strain last year and only took the ball 14 times.

 

 

Well that was f***ing easy, try again next week Bluey.

[jaysblue]

Strider had TJS in school and throws hard and near his max

Morton is 40. Literally forty years old. Forty.

Chris Sale is.... Chris Sale? What does "looks healthy" even mean the guy is f***ing 35 with bad mechanics and the last time he made 25 starts was pre-Covid.

Lopez did not throw more than 66 innings from 2020 through 2023. It's not like he can just go 175 this year for them.

Fried had a semi-serious elbow/forearm strain last year and only took the ball 14 times.

 

 

Well that was f***ing easy, try again next week Bluey.

 

- Who cares if Morton is 40 and Bassitt is 35? Morton posted a 2.7 WAR last season and was no different than Bassitt. Morton could probably pitch until he's 45 if he wants haha.

 

- Chris Sale put up really good numbers last season in his 20 starts. Again, rolling the dice on him as a No. 3/4 starter and hoping for a dead cat bounce ain't a bad thing. Worst case, you have a 2-3 WAR arm who makes 20 starts.

 

- Lopez made 32 and 33 starts back in 2018 and 2019. Sucked afterwards, was moved to the bullpen and turned out to be a solid electric arm out of the pen. No different than the Giants signing Jordan Hicks and experimenting with him as a starter. If it works out great, if not Lopez can be easily transitioned back to a bullpen role.

 

- Yeah Fried missed a lot of time last season, but previous two seasons was a very solid 1A or 2. Let's see if he makes 30+ starts this season.

[Terminator]

Any collection of extreme max velo types (Strider), 40 year olds (Morton), guys with lengthy injury pasts (Fried and Sale) and converted relievers (Lopez) are going to have an elevated injury risk.

[Terminator]

My god have the Orioles had an easy schedule to this point. May toughens up a little bit for them but it will take until June until they see a hard patch of games.

[Laika]

- Who cares if Morton is 40 and Bassitt is 35? Morton posted a 2.7 WAR last season and was no different than Bassitt. Morton could probably pitch until he's 45 if he wants haha.

 

- Chris Sale put up really good numbers last season in his 20 starts. Again, rolling the dice on him as a No. 3/4 starter and hoping for a dead cat bounce ain't a bad thing. Worst case, you have a 2-3 WAR arm who makes 20 starts.

 

- Lopez made 32 and 33 starts back in 2018 and 2019. Sucked afterwards, was moved to the bullpen and turned out to be a solid electric arm out of the pen. No different than the Giants signing Jordan Hicks and experimenting with him as a starter. If it works out great, if not Lopez can be easily transitioned back to a bullpen role.

 

- Yeah Fried missed a lot of time last season, but previous two seasons was a very solid 1A or 2. Let's see if he makes 30+ starts this season.

 

We are talking about INJURY RISK how is this so hard to understand you nincompoop

 

I don't care if you think that trading for Sale is a good "roll of the dice" he's still injury prone and risky

[Carlos Danger]

I don't think anyone on here has said the very good GM's like AA are perfect. AA has made some mistakes or questionable decisions in Atlanta as well. Nothing wrong in questioning him. Yeah AA miscalculated the value of Contraras and trading him away was a mistake.

 

As for your comment about Atlanta's pitching depth, it's incorrect.

 

Darius Vines was pretty solid in the bigs last season and did pitch well in his first start this season. Solid minor league track record as well and is only 25. I mean he's nothing special but not a bad depth option if you need him for a couple of starts.

 

Braves also have Bryce Elder who is getting called up for tonight and likely now will take Strider's spot in the rotation on a full time basis. Elder is only 24 and was an All-Star last season and finished 12-4 with a 3.81 ERA in his 31 starts. Not bad for your 6th starter and he has proven he could pitch a full season out of the rotation.

 

Other options the Braves have: Huascar Ynoa, Dylan Dodd, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Allan Winans. As well, their top pick in the 2023 draft Hurston Waldrep could be MLB ready in July if he dominates in AAA.

 

So overall in total, I count 7 total viable possible SP options after their top 5 of Strider, Fried, Sale, Morton and Lopez.

 

This is why AA made the Murphy deal.

 

If you currently look at defensive stats, Contreras on the Brewers is waaaayyy down the list.

 

The Braves have enough offence they need the other catcher skills that Murphy and Arnaud bring.

 

From an article I perused:

 

Contreras was an All-Star in 2022, is younger than Sean Murphy, and had Murphy beat in almost every traditional batting stat. So what makes Murphy so much more valuable than Contreras?

 

In short, the answer lies in positional scarcity. The Braves see Murphy as a catcher in the long-term, whereas Contreras is likely to have to move to the outfield or the DH spot – and finding a full-time catcher with the offensive output that Contreras provides is much harder than finding a DH with the same stats. Murphy is an elite defensive catcher – according to Statcast, in 2022, his pop time ranked third in the league, and his framing ranked sixth – whereas Contreras ranked 38th and 46th, respectively.

 

Also, while Contreras was the better batter in 2022, there’s good reason to believe that Murphy’s batting will improve after leaving the cavernous Coliseum in Oakland. His batting splits at home last season were .226/.319/.383, in comparison to .272/.345/.467 on the road. Indeed, Murphy is already making strides to that effect, slashing a promising .267/.353/.413 in spring, including this gigantic tater off the batter’s eye in straight away center field.

[BigCecil]

On MLB I just watched all of Mason Miller’s Ks this season. Good god! Nate is a poor man’s’ Mason. Will his arm fall off? That breaking ball 102 fastball with run combo should be outlawed. Unless he is a Jay.

[BTS]

On MLB I just watched all of Mason Miller’s Ks this season. Good god! Nate is a poor man’s’ Mason. Will his arm fall off? That breaking ball 102 fastball with run combo should be outlawed. Unless he is a Jay.

 

He's unbelievable. I think there's no chance he holds up.

[glory]

On MLB I just watched all of Mason Miller’s Ks this season. Good god! Nate is a poor man’s’ Mason. Will his arm fall off? That breaking ball 102 fastball with run combo should be outlawed. Unless he is a Jay.

 

According to Gameday, he stuck out Soto on 4 pitches that were 101, 100.3, 101.8, and 103.3 mph. If velocity is a big reason for the pitching injuries, then I can't imagine this is sustainable for him short or long term, but maybe there are exceptions.

[Carlos Danger]

Umps need to be reigned in. Boone ejected in the 1st inning after 5 pitches for something a fan said....

 

The Umps are making it too much about them and not the game.

[Spanky__99]

What I am not understanding is how was Manoah legitimately being considered depth? His issues occurred at the start of the 2023 season. He made no progress during the whole 2023 campaign and then had that whole issue with refusing assignment to Buffalo etc and debate about if there was an injury.

 

Not like he went to the DR winter league and was lights out. There were no tangible metrics to show he was fixed and could be counted on.

 

When he has pitched this year, and not on the IL ,he has not shown the control to be a MLB starter.

 

To me that is like saying well, if my primary car breaks down, I have another car to get to work or the airport. However, you haven't been able to start that car for a year and are just praying it starts if needed.

 

Manoah is and was a lottery ticket at this point.. You might win, but wouldn't plan on using the ticket to pay your mortgage.

 

Last 2 starts are something to take from it.

[Spanky__99]

Strider was pretty durable during his first two seasons. Sucks he got injured, but never viewed him as a glass cannon arm.

 

Morton has been really solid and durable even at his age. Can you please tell me how is he any different than Bassitt?

 

Sale has been really solid to start the season and looks healthy. Has gone 7 innings in each of his last two starts. Last season posted a 2.1 WAR and 10.96K/9 in 20 starts with Boston. He looked real good when on the mound. Was one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball and now looks healthy. Not bad to roll the dice on him as your 3rd or 4th starter.

 

Fried has had a slow start, but he should finish with respectable numbers. He's not as flashy as someone like Strider was, but a very solid 1A or No. 2 starter.

 

Lopez has looked great out of the rotation thus far. It's still early and only 3 starts, but can't complain about the results. He used to be a starter previously as well, so it's not like he's been a career reliever as you just stated.

 

Everyone and their mother knew his arm would snap, lol. Industry wide.

[Brownie19]

We are talking about INJURY RISK how is this so hard to understand you nincompoop

 

I don't care if you think that trading for Sale is a good "roll of the dice" he's still injury prone and risky

 

Yet I'm the insufferable one this board Sale has thrown like 170 innings combined since 2019.

[AMS528]

The Rangers won the WS so from their perspective it was already worth it, but from like a dollar perspective I think Marcus Semien is going to wind up being worth or very close to worth every dollar of his contract.

 

He's aging better than anyone would have guessed. I wanted him resigned and didn't think he would age this well.

 

Yet another season of good walk rates even lower strikeouts, steady power, good base running and elite defense. He's like the recipe of how you make a player that racks up WAR without blowing you away.

 

I'm cheering for him to continue his pace through the season cause then his 7 year peak WAR is in the 40s and we get a long shot HOF candidacy that could happen.

 

Really want him to age like Beltre

[burlingtonbandit]

The Rangers won the WS so from their perspective it was already worth it, but from like a dollar perspective I think Marcus Semien is going to wind up being worth or very close to worth every dollar of his contract.

 

He's aging better than anyone would have guessed. I wanted him resigned and didn't think he would age this well.

 

Yet another season of good walk rates even lower strikeouts, steady power, good base running and elite defense. He's like the recipe of how you make a player that racks up WAR without blowing you away.

 

I'm cheering for him to continue his pace through the season cause then his 7 year peak WAR is in the 40s and we get a long shot HOF candidacy that could happen.

 

Really want him to age like Beltre

 

He's fantastic. Reminds me of another Rangers second baseman in Kinsler. Fantastic defender with solid above average offense and a pretty good baserunner.

[burlingtonbandit]

Man the Orioles look stacked. Projections have them as a mid 80s win team but they look well on their way to another mid to high 90 win season. That FO really turned the franchise around.

[Jimcanuck]

Man the Orioles look stacked. Projections have them as a mid 80s win team but they look well on their way to another mid to high 90 win season. That FO really turned the franchise around.

 

No. Years of finishing last turned the franchise around.

[Olerud363]

No. Years of finishing last turned the franchise around.

 

They really only had 1 extra meaningful 'bad' season than the Jays. And that was 2021 when the Jays only had 25 home games and there was limited attendance anyway.

 

Finishing last has little to do with it. So give them a good 2021 and take away Jackson Holliday and everything is still exactly the same.

 

They are a seriously great organization and have hit potential superstars on a phenomenal number of top 60 draft picks. Take a look at their good players. Right now, other than Adley Rutschman there is nothing the Jays couldn't have had too with better drafting and development

 

1. Jordan Westburg 30th pick, great development

2. Gunnar Henderson second round pick I think

3. Adley Rutschmann 1/1 that they hit on

4. Grayson Rodriquez 11 pick, same as Manoah, just better development so far.

5. Colton Cowser 5th pick, which Jays had one too. Oriole geniuses got a generational hitter, Jays geniuses got Austin Martin

6. Corbin Burnes - obtained for like prospects in their second tier group 7th to 15th best prospects or something. Had nothing to do with finishing last, just their phenomenal second tier prospect pool.

7. Ryan Mountcastle - has matured as a better player than Vlad simply by following a normal age 22 to 27 development path. That is actually getting a bit better every year as players should.

8. Cedric Mullins - nice development story too

9. Craig Kimrel - smart signing with money they saved from not having to waste money on Isiah Kiner-Felafa because they have 22 50 grade infield prospects.

[jaysblue]

They really only had 1 extra meaningful 'bad' season than the Jays. And that was 2021 when the Jays only had 25 home games and there was limited attendance anyway.

 

Finishing last has little to do with it. So give them a good 2021 and take away Jackson Holliday and everything is still exactly the same.

 

They are a seriously great organization and have hit potential superstars on a phenomenal number of top 60 draft picks. Take a look at their good players. Right now, other than Adley Rutschman there is nothing the Jays couldn't have had too with better drafting and development

 

1. Jordan Westburg 30th pick, great development

2. Gunnar Henderson second round pick I think

3. Adley Rutschmann 1/1 that they hit on

4. Grayson Rodriquez 11 pick, same as Manoah, just better development so far.

5. Colton Cowser 5th pick, which Jays had one too. Oriole geniuses got a generational hitter, Jays geniuses got Austin Martin

6. Corbin Burnes - obtained for like prospects in their second tier group 7th to 15th best prospects or something. Had nothing to do with finishing last, just their phenomenal second tier prospect pool.

7. Ryan Mountcastle - has matured as a better player than Vlad simply by following a normal age 22 to 27 development path. That is actually getting a bit better every year as players should.

8. Cedric Mullins - nice development story too

9. Craig Kimrel - smart signing with money they saved from not having to waste money on Isiah Kiner-Felafa because they have 22 50 grade infield prospects.

 

Brownie is already writing up an essay to prove how the Orioles FO is inferior to the Jays FO, just because.

[Tim Cooke]

No. Years of finishing last turned the franchise around.

 

This is objectivly false.

 

2017: went for it. Playoff hunt until things went south last three weeks of Sept

2018: went for it again (ill advised but they did). Lost more games this season than in 2019 or 2021

2019: bad team

2020: 25-35 (probably a lot worse without COVID but not dealing in hypotheticals here)

2021: bad team

 

And then they drafted well AND developed these guys. Lots of great GM's who can draft but a whole league full of failures from "sure fire" picks.

[Tim Cooke]

Is this true though?

 

Angels: losing record

KC: winning record

Pittsburgh: winning record

Boston: winning record

Brewers: winning record

Twins: losing record

KC: winning record

Angels: losing record

 

It's not a hard schedule but playing mostly .500 or above teams isn't a cake walk.

[Laika]

Is this true though?

 

Angels: losing record

KC: winning record

Pittsburgh: winning record

Boston: winning record

Brewers: winning record

Twins: losing record

KC: winning record

Angels: losing record

 

It's not a hard schedule but playing mostly .500 or above teams isn't a cake walk.

 

It's not a cake walk by any means but it's better than facing NYY, TBR, HOU

 

Boston is pitching incredible, their RHSP will be tough to get to. They did just lose Casas long term and Devers seems banged up. O'Neill still out.

KC is just a good team. Half of their lineup is legitimately good and they have some arms. They aren't a sub .500 team anymore.

Brewers are very good.

I feel like the Angels just blow and are the easiest matchup here but they still have Trout.

Twins are alright.

Pitt is interesting but still bad IMO.

[Brownie19]

Brownie is already writing up an essay to prove how the Orioles FO is inferior to the Jays FO, just because.

 

Your obsession with me is creepy as f*** man.

[Orgfiller]

They really only had 1 extra meaningful 'bad' season than the Jays. And that was 2021 when the Jays only had 25 home games and there was limited attendance anyway.

 

Finishing last has little to do with it. So give them a good 2021 and take away Jackson Holliday and everything is still exactly the same.

 

They are a seriously great organization and have hit potential superstars on a phenomenal number of top 60 draft picks. Take a look at their good players. Right now, other than Adley Rutschman there is nothing the Jays couldn't have had too with better drafting and development

 

1. Jordan Westburg 30th pick, great development

2. Gunnar Henderson second round pick I think

3. Adley Rutschmann 1/1 that they hit on

4. Grayson Rodriquez 11 pick, same as Manoah, just better development so far.

5. Colton Cowser 5th pick, which Jays had one too. Oriole geniuses got a generational hitter, Jays geniuses got Austin Martin

6. Corbin Burnes - obtained for like prospects in their second tier group 7th to 15th best prospects or something. Had nothing to do with finishing last, just their phenomenal second tier prospect pool.

7. Ryan Mountcastle - has matured as a better player than Vlad simply by following a normal age 22 to 27 development path. That is actually getting a bit better every year as players should.

8. Cedric Mullins - nice development story too

9. Craig Kimrel - smart signing with money they saved from not having to waste money on Isiah Kiner-Felafa because they have 22 50 grade infield prospects.

 

Not gonna bother with the rest of this, but at Grayson Rodriguez's age Manoah had a better rookie season in fewer innings, followed by a 4 WAR season and was a Cy Young runner up. Rodriguez could have a good 2024 then blow out his arm due to his higher avg velocity and then they would be on exactly equal grounds. "better development so far" my ass

 

Manoah also didn't take 5-6 years to develop, for whatever that's worth. lol @ "better development so far"

[Olerud363]

Not gonna bother with the rest of this, but at Grayson Rodriguez's age Manoah had a better rookie season in fewer innings, followed by a 4 WAR season and was a Cy Young runner up. Rodriguez could have a good 2024 then blow out his arm due to his higher avg velocity and then they would be on exactly equal grounds. "better development so far" my ass

 

Manoah also didn't take 5-6 years to develop, for whatever that's worth. lol @ "better development so far"

 

A lot of the Orioles stuff, especially mine is a bit over the top, some of it tongue in cheek but it's all grounded in truth. This board has a bizarre need to discount everything the Orioles do.

 

Both Vlad and Manoah had one great year. No one is denying that. Development doesn't end with a players first dynamite great year in their early 20s. If multiple players (Vlad, Manoah, Kirk) crash and burn from age 22 to 25 it is not a good thing and does not reflect kindly on a teams development systems.

 

80% of the people on this board are morons. If Gunnar Henderson turns into a 1 WAR pumpkin in 2 years, and Adley Rutchman gains 100 pounds and becomes a .230 .290 .300 hitting catcher, and Rodriquez crashes and is in Norfolk in 2026 I will gladly admit the Orioles development system wasn't what I thought it was.

[Olerud363]

A lot of the Orioles stuff, especially mine is a bit over the top, some of it tongue in cheek but it's all grounded in truth. This board has a bizarre need to discount everything the Orioles do.

 

Both Vlad and Manoah had one great year. No one is denying that. Development doesn't end with a players first dynamite great year in their early 20s. If multiple players (Vlad, Manoah, Kirk) crash and burn from age 22 to 25 it is not a good thing and does not reflect kindly on a teams development systems.

 

80% of the people on this board are morons. If Gunnar Henderson turns into a 1 WAR pumpkin in 2 years, and Adley Rutchman gains 100 pounds and becomes a .230 .290 .300 hitting catcher, and Rodriquez crashes and is in Norfolk in 2026 I will gladly admit the Orioles development system wasn't what I thought it was.

 

People are so f***ing in denial about the reality of the Orioles.

 

If Orioles and Jays had equal development systems, and Jays players followed standard minor league projections and aging curves the Jays would still be ahead of the Orioles. The Jays peak window is 2022-2026, while the Orioles were about 2 years behind so there peak is 2024-2028.

 

So what we should be seeing now is Vlad/Bo/Kirk/Manoah at their 25-27 peak performance level of 20 WAR combined and this should have been sort of the first year where the Orioles put a scare into the Jays, and the next two the teams would be even.

 

Instead the Bo/Vlad years are kindof already over and the Orioles look to be set up for a 2022-2031 10 year run.

 

People are in such denial about this.

[Brownie19]

MLB on FOX (@mlbonfox) • Instagram reel

WWW.INSTAGRAM.COM

---

128K likes, 805 comments - mlbonfox on April 20, 2024: "Cam Booser walked away from baseball in 2017 to become a carpenter before making a comeback in 2021 with an independent team. He made his MLB debut Friday at age 31 ❤️".

 

How can you not be romantic about baseball?

[Terminator]

Is this true though?

 

Angels: losing record

KC: winning record

Pittsburgh: winning record

Boston: winning record

Brewers: winning record

Twins: losing record

KC: winning record

Angels: losing record

 

It's not a hard schedule but playing mostly .500 or above teams isn't a cake walk.

 

The Brewers are projected to finish with 84 wins. The Red Sox are projected to go about .500 and so are the Twins. Everyone else is projected to have a losing record.

[Laika]

The Brewers are projected to finish with 84 wins. The Red Sox are projected to go about .500 and so are the Twins. Everyone else is projected to have a losing record.

 

okay Mr. Projections