Around Baseball 2024

[Brownie19]

I feel like the league isn't at a stable place right now with pitching. Teams are burning through arms by squeezing every last ounce of velo and spin out of them on every pitch. And they don't want to commit to them because they know they're pushing them hard enough that they're going to break over the course of a long-term deal. There will probably need to be incentives put in place that reduce the amount of different pitchers available to teams over the course of a season, because right now they're treating them like completely disposable assets.

 

Yeah, it’s got nothing to do with the pitch clock and the 2 seconds less of recovery between pitches. It’s throwing max effort with max torque for spin rates on every pitch for as many pitches as they can. It’s less of an issue for relievers since they only throw 20-30 pitches per outing max and have usually at least 1 if not 2 days off between appearances.

 

On one side…more velo and better spin generally = more success assuming you have a clue where it’s going. Getting those 15-18 outs before turning it over to the pen and multiple 1 inning maximum guys is what is winning games more often.

 

If suddenly tomorrow all the pitchers in baseball went back to 85-90% effort….scoring would go through the roof. Hitters would love it.

 

I was thinking about this the other day. I think it's a fascinating discussion. There is no doubt in my mind that pitchers are being developed to throw as hard as they can - all the time. This has significantly increased the number of effective pitchers at the ML level. Bullpens are full of guys throwing legit gas/sliders these days. This is why most starting pitchers aren't facing lineups a 3rd time through and/or pitching deep into games. The options in the pen are simply 'better'. This wasn't true 15-20 years ago. Back then, outside of 1 or 2 arms in the pen, even you're #3 and #4 starter, facing a lineup a 3rd or 4th time was better than the options in the pen. Of course the downside is that to throw this hard, all the time is a harder on the body and pitchers blow up more often now. But then again, there are so many more options to choose from these days, so when they blow up, you just move onto the next arm. It 100% makes sense that teams aren't investing a ton of money on pitchers these days.

 

That said, how did we get to this point? Obviously, there are always a ton of pitchers who are fringe ML players. They want to have a career and make some money, so they are always pushing to find a way to get a shot in the majors. As these labs started producing all these robot relief pitchers who all throw 95+ with a slider, other pitchers had to follow suit and jump on board.

 

I also think that hitting just keeps getting better and better too - which is what's forcing pitchers to have to continue chasing velocity and spin to survive. I think the numbers suggest that velocity remains one of the biggest factors in results and you see that now as there's very few relief pitchers who can survive throwing 90-92 MPH anymore. I think if you saw pitchers go back to throwing at 90%, you'd see scoring skyrocket. Batters are too good now - they will tee off on that. I don't think we'll see many guys like Jamie Moyer ever pitch in the majors again.

 

It kind of feels like a chicken and egg thing. Did batters get so good they forced pitching to adjust to throw harder? or did pitchers realize that throwing harder was their key to pitching in the majors and making millions and the batters have simply adjusted? Either way - I don't see an avenue to having a lot of SPing throwing 7+ innings again while throwing at 90% and "pitching" more. I think you might need to increase the width of the plate or something drastic to see that be possible - unless we want high scoring games and a 'good' ERA to be in the 4's.

 

I'd love to hear other thoughts on this.

[RustyTrombone]

I was thinking about this the other day. I think it's a fascinating discussion. There is no doubt in my mind that pitchers are being developed to throw as hard as they can - all the time. This has significantly increased the number of effective pitchers at the ML level. Bullpens are full of guys throwing legit gas/sliders these days. This is why most starting pitchers aren't facing lineups a 3rd time through and/or pitching deep into games. The options in the pen are simply 'better'. This wasn't true 15-20 years ago. Back then, outside of 1 or 2 arms in the pen, even you're #3 and #4 starter, facing a lineup a 3rd or 4th time was better than the options in the pen. Of course the downside is that to throw this hard, all the time is a harder on the body and pitchers blow up more often now. But then again, there are so many more options to choose from these days, so when they blow up, you just move onto the next arm. It 100% makes sense that teams aren't investing a ton of money on pitchers these days.

 

That said, how did we get to this point? Obviously, there are always a ton of pitchers who are fringe ML players. They want to have a career and make some money, so they are always pushing to find a way to get a shot in the majors. As these labs started producing all these robot relief pitchers who all throw 95+ with a slider, other pitchers had to follow suit and jump on board.

 

I also think that hitting just keeps getting better and better too - which is what's forcing pitchers to have to continue chasing velocity and spin to survive. I think the numbers suggest that velocity remains one of the biggest factors in results and you see that now as there's very few relief pitchers who can survive throwing 90-92 MPH anymore. I think if you saw pitchers go back to throwing at 90%, you'd see scoring skyrocket. Batters are too good now - they will tee off on that. I don't think we'll see many guys like Jamie Moyer ever pitch in the majors again.

 

It kind of feels like a chicken and egg thing. Did batters get so good they forced pitching to adjust to throw harder? or did pitchers realize that throwing harder was their key to pitching in the majors and making millions and the batters have simply adjusted? Either way - I don't see an avenue to having a lot of SPing throwing 7+ innings again while throwing at 90% and "pitching" more. I think you might need to increase the width of the plate or something drastic to see that be possible - unless we want high scoring games and a 'good' ERA to be in the 4's.

I'd love to hear other thoughts on this.

 

It will happen, enough people in the MLB offices care enough about the value of starting pitching going down that they will introduce new rules to encourage teams to allow their starters to throw more innings which will inevitably lead to pitchers throwing with less intensity in order to preserve more stamina which will in turn make control/command more valuable. One thing Ive already seen being talked about is reducing the max number of pitchers on a active roster down to 12.

[deanmike]

 

Duvall to the Braves

[max silver]

It will happen, enough people in the MLB offices care enough about the value of starting pitching going down that they will introduce new rules to encourage teams to allow their starters to throw more innings which will inevitably lead to pitchers throwing with less intensity in order to preserve more stamina which will in turn make control/command more valuable. One thing Ive already seen being talked about is reducing the max number of pitchers on a active roster down to 12.

 

I'm not a huge fan of the idea of reducing the available roster spots for pitchers as I have suspicions that the pitch clock may eventually lead to an increase in pitcher injuries. Forcing the pitchers on the roster to both increase workload while reducing in game recovery feels like a bit of a recipe for disaster.

[RustyTrombone]

I'm not a huge fan of the idea of reducing the available roster spots for pitchers as I have suspicions that the pitch clock may eventually lead to an increase in pitcher injuries. Forcing the pitchers on the roster to both increase workload while reducing in game recovery feels like a bit of a recipe for disaster.

 

Yea I get that, although I do doubt just how much of an impact on recovery the pitch clock has. Also you have to keep in mind that the pitchers would be exerting themselves less than they have been the last few years so there would be a positive effect on pitcher health from that as well, as negated as it may be from the pitch clock and having to throw more pitches overall.

[Spanky99]

 

Duvall to the Braves

 

Ughh... that's a nice deal.

[Brownie19]

It will happen, enough people in the MLB offices care enough about the value of starting pitching going down that they will introduce new rules to encourage teams to allow their starters to throw more innings which will inevitably lead to pitchers throwing with less intensity in order to preserve more stamina which will in turn make control/command more valuable. One thing Ive already seen being talked about is reducing the max number of pitchers on a active roster down to 12.

 

I've seen that suggestion. I just think hitters are going to feast on the starters unless there are other changes. I mean perhaps pitchers will be able to turn their focus to control and changing speeds enough to survive. I wonder if mastering that is just tangibly harder than chasing velocity, which is why you rarely see pitchers doing it successfully.

Edited March 14, 2024 by Brownie19

[Brownie19]

Ughh... that's a nice deal.

 

Yep - I like that one also. Wish we had a spot available for him at that price.

[MikeM3]

That's like 0.25 Justin turners

[Terminator]

The other thing about pitchers that teams are doing is that have seemingly abandoned pitch mixes which protect their arms better.

 

I've read that sliders are the worst pitch for your arm but teams don't care anymore. They'll tweak the pitch to be more effective, even if it's worse for your arm, and then they'll have you throw it over 50% of the time if they think that's most effective.

 

Protecting arms is such an inexact science that it would be hard to calculate this, but I wonder if it would be worth teams exploring pitch mixes that are easier on their arms. Pulling these numbers out of my ass, but it might be worth using a more arm friendly pitch mix if it give your frontline starter a 40% greater chance to avoid major injury, even if it makes him 10% less effective.

 

I'm sure teams already do this when calculating their offers for FA pitchers. Gausman's fastball-splitter combo seems pretty arm friendly compared to a slider heavy guy.

 

Might be worth targeting and developing minor league arms with arm friendly pitch mixes as well.

[BTS]

The other thing about pitchers that teams are doing is that have seemingly abandoned pitch mixes which protect their arms better.

 

I've read that sliders are the worst pitch for your arm but teams don't care anymore. They'll tweak the pitch to be more effective, even if it's worse for your arm, and then they'll have you throw it over 50% of the time if they think that's most effective.

 

Protecting arms is such an inexact science that it would be hard to calculate this, but I wonder if it would be worth teams exploring pitch mixes that are easier on their arms. Pulling these numbers out of my ass, but it might be worth using a more arm friendly pitch mix if it give your frontline starter a 40% greater chance to avoid major injury, even if it makes him 10% less effective.

 

I'm sure teams already do this when calculating their offers for FA pitchers. Gausman's fastball-splitter combo seems pretty arm friendly compared to a slider heavy guy.

 

Might be worth targeting and developing minor league arms with arm friendly pitch mixes as well.

 

Yup. I'm watching Zack Littell right now and he's throwing like 50% sliders, a bunch of them at 85-87 mph. He hasn't been a starter since 2018, but the Rays are going to have him throwing a few dozen high velo sliders a game. It will work until his arm explodes in June, but they won't care because they have nothing invested in him and can just move on to the next guy up.

[Brownie19]

Yup. I'm watching Zack Littell right now and he's throwing like 50% sliders, a bunch of them at 85-87 mph. He hasn't been a starter since 2018, but the Rays are going to have him throwing a few dozen high velo sliders a game. It will work until his arm explodes in June, but they won't care because they have nothing invested in him and can just move on to the next guy up.

 

100%. The issue is if Zach Littell uses a pitch mix that protects his arm - he isn't in the major leagues. He's floating around in AAA, riding the buses. I suspect Zach and TB know the risk of throwing 50% sliders and they are both happy to take that risk. Zach wants to be in the majors and TB wants effective innings. For your truly stud pitchers - sure, you could probably use a pitch mix that's easier on their arm, while sacrificing effectiveness. But for most of the MLB, they can't afford a 10% drop in efficiency, as it will push them out of the league in favor of the Zach Littell's of the world.

 

I'm not 100% on this, but I also think the data on which pitches are "hardest" on your arm is up for debate. I thought I read something that suggested a fastball is just as damaging as a curveball recently.

[Stangstag]

Yup. I'm watching Zack Littell right now and he's throwing like 50% sliders, a bunch of them at 85-87 mph. He hasn't been a starter since 2018, but the Rays are going to have him throwing a few dozen high velo sliders a game. It will work until his arm explodes in June, but they won't care because they have nothing invested in him and can just move on to the next guy up.

 

The Rays should be praised for being such an intelligent organization

[Jays24]

 

Duvall to the Braves

 

Can we bring AA back to Toronto maaannnn... go apologize Rogers

[John_Havok]

The other thing about pitchers that teams are doing is that have seemingly abandoned pitch mixes which protect their arms better.

 

I've read that sliders are the worst pitch for your arm but teams don't care anymore. They'll tweak the pitch to be more effective, even if it's worse for your arm, and then they'll have you throw it over 50% of the time if they think that's most effective.

 

Protecting arms is such an inexact science that it would be hard to calculate this, but I wonder if it would be worth teams exploring pitch mixes that are easier on their arms. Pulling these numbers out of my ass, but it might be worth using a more arm friendly pitch mix if it give your frontline starter a 40% greater chance to avoid major injury, even if it makes him 10% less effective.

 

I'm sure teams already do this when calculating their offers for FA pitchers. Gausman's fastball-splitter combo seems pretty arm friendly compared to a slider heavy guy.

 

Might be worth targeting and developing minor league arms with arm friendly pitch mixes as well.

 

Two sides to the coin though. By and large, the pitches that are "healthier" for the arm are probably "easier" to hit. Not much in pitching has really changed over the years other than the understanding of arm mechanics and how to make the ball spin more.

 

Past truths still exist. Perfect location is still lethal. Perfect location is impossible to have consistently. Throwing harder increases the margin of error. It's become easier to give guys exercise plans to increase strength and velo than it is to teach command, which you can never be perfect at. They've found that pitching your 100% stuff for shorter periods of time leads to more wins than throwing 85-90% stuff for longer periods for the vast majority of pitchers.

 

The pitfalls of injury pretty much stem from those truths.

 

As for the "teams not willing to invest in pitching" angle. Yeah, although I think teams would gladly give pitchers shorter term deals for bigger AAVs than long term deals for lower AAVs. I'd personally never want to go past 4 years on a starting pitcher and ever expect it to go well.

 

Snell could probably sign for 1/30 tomorrow, but I doubt he'd get 6/120. SPs could very well become the hired guns of baseball where they're all on deal no longer than 4 years, but for higher AAVs, kinda like how relievers are now except in the ~50 mill AAV range for the true ace SP rather than 15-20 AAV for the Edwin Diaz type relievers.

[Spanky99]

First time I'm seeing Imanaga pitch, this dude's a carbon copy of Kooch. Looks good.

[John_Havok]

First time I'm seeing Imanaga pitch, this dude's a carbon copy of Kooch. Looks good.

 

This is just code for "Asians all look the same"....

 

You racist bastard! /Sarcasm

[Spanky99]

This is just code for "Asians all look the same"....

 

You racist bastard! /Sarcasm

 

Seriously though, from his windup to set position and arsenal, everything is the same, kind of neat.

[Spanky99]

Espino is dead...

There’s further discouraging news on righty Daniel Espino — formerly one of the top prospects in all of baseball. The 23-year-old righty, who missed the entire 2023 season due to a capsule tear that required shoulder surgery, underwent a second shoulder procedure yesterday — this one to repair new capsule damage as well as his rotator cuff. He’s expected to miss the entire 2024 season, though an exact timetable on his recovery isn’t yet known, per the team.

[RustyTrombone]

Espino is dead...

 

Sad but comes with the sport. If the gods blessed you with the ability to throw 100 they also cursed you with a chance to destroy your arm.

[John_Havok]

Sad but comes with the sport. If the gods blessed you with the ability to throw 100 they also cursed you with a chance to destroy your arm.

 

If by “chance” you mean virtual certainty…then yes.

[deanmike]

 

Cole injury timeline apparently 10-12 weeks

[G-Snarls]

 

Cole injury timeline apparently 10-12 weeks

 

And about 2 weeks after that until he blows it for real and needs surgery

[wilko]

And about 2 weeks after that until he blows it for real and needs surgery

 

They are just prolonging the inevitable.

[Spanky99]

They are just prolonging the inevitable.

 

Same thing will happen with Bradish.

[max silver]

They are just prolonging the inevitable.

 

Cole apparently doesn't even have a torn tendon so surgery at this point seems a little pre-emptive all things considered.

[Terminator]

Cole apparently doesn't even have a torn tendon so surgery at this point seems a little pre-emptive all things considered.

 

His elbow is f***ed and everyone knows it, even the Yankees.

 

UCL injuries aren't acute, they are caused by repetitive stress. So it's not like he snapped off one particular slider at a weird angle that caused this specific injury and that with rest it will go back to normal. Over time his ligament has been put under duress and now it's to the point where it's damaged. The second he starts putting that ligament under duress again it's only a matter of time before it snaps.

 

It happens all the time. Marlins tried resting Alcantara last year and the Orioles tried resting Bautista too. It didn't work.

 

So the Yankees are going to prolong this a couple of months because they are desperate to get him back on the field. He'll come out and pitch for a little while but then he'll need Tommy John and he'll miss all of next year too.

Edited March 15, 2024 by Terminator

[deanmike]

 

Michael A Taylor to the Pirates

[Jonn]

Nester Cortes is Opening Day for the Yankees lol

 

Orioles are going to steam roll this division I would not be shocked if they had 40 wins in the their first 50 games.

[Terminator]

Been a pretty good spring for the Jays. Gausman is having a slow start and Jansen got hurt. Manoah also continues to be a turd. But everything else is fine so far and the pitching depth looks much improved.

 

Meanwhile:

-Orioles rotation depth taking hits with Bradish and Means getting hurt

-Rays have a ton of things going on, Deluca, Walls, Baz, Bradley, etc.

-Red Sox lose Giolito, Grissom won't be ready for Opening Day

-Yanks lose Cole for at least 2 months which is pretty devastating for them, Rodon looks cooked, Judge is already dinged up

 

The playoffs will be easy to make