Around Baseball 2024

[Stottlemyres_Bloody_Chin]

Max and Brownie better just stay in hiding for a while

[Terminator]

Most of the moves made sense at the time:

 

-Chad Green options were picked up very early in the offseason. Seemed like a solid move after the previous offseason saw far worse relievers getting more guaranteed money.

 

-KK on a one year deal seemed like a decent deal. This was lower than what Fangraphs projected.

 

-IKF seemed like an overpay but the numbers are nominal and other than Chapman he seemed like the best 3B fit on the market. They probably see this as an upside play too. But this deal looks worse after the other infield options like Urshela signed for far less than we thought they would but no one has a crystal ball.

 

-Yariel got a good chunk of change but his AAV is low. If he’s even a number 5 pitcher that will be a decent contract. If he’s a #4 that will be a good deal. Another upside play.

 

Ok now all that makes some sense, especially in the timeframe in which those guys signed. But here’s the real kick in the nuts:

 

-Justin Turner signed very late into the offseason for 13.5 mil. By this point it was clear that the market was developing slowly and with ST starting in just a couple of weeks that some prices were going to drop. Chapman was still there as were plenty of DH options in JDM, Soler, Pham, Belt, etc. We also have Horwitz and then picked up Vogelbach for free. We weren’t desperate but Atkins made a desperation move. Even after what turned out to be overpays for KK and IKF, if he doesn’t sign Turner we STILL could have gotten Chapman. And at this point he should have known that there were going to be some bargains. Signing Turner is where Atkins really screwed up.

 

Really, the only explanation for this is that Atkins thinks Chapman is cooked after his final 4.5 months of the season and just doesn’t even want him. It’s possible he’s got some info that we don’t. It’s not like the rest of the league thinks Chapman is that good either. But this doesn’t square with the rumored contract we offered Chapman earlier this offseason.

 

I guess the other explanation would be if we signed Snell or spent money on someone else but that seems almost impossible after letting Chapman walk.

 

I’m not entirely off the Atkins train yet but I would like to formally apologize to the Atkins haters who were sticking a fork in this offseason a month or two ago. IKF and Yariel could ball out and make it turn out okay still but it seems like there were better moves to make.

[Terminator]

Hypothetical Pivot Scenario (since it's been widely expected the Giants would explore a JD Davis trade if they got Chapman)

 

Jays trade Espinal to the Giants for JD Davis (BTV surplus value gain of 4.3 for Atkins, not quite the 5+ he almost always gets but not egregiously below). Jays remain under the 2nd threshold post trade since they're roughly 6.3M below it now (assuming Vogelbach makes the team) and the AAV swap of Espinal/Davis is less than that.

 

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Schneider

3B Davis

SS Bichette

LF Varsho

CF Kiermaier

RF Springer

DH Turner

Bench: Biggio, Vogelbach, IKF

 

Thoughts?

 

Yeah been saying JD Davis would be a fit all offseason. He’d be a perfect fit if we didn’t sign Turner but I’d still take him at this point. He’s in a FA year and he has flashed some serious offensive potential before. He gets labeled as a butcher at 3B on this board but his UZR is okay and his OAA is decent. Really just his DRS sucks.

[Laika]

Most of the moves made sense at the time:

 

-Chad Green options were picked up very early in the offseason. Seemed like a solid move after the previous offseason saw far worse relievers getting more guaranteed money.

 

-KK on a one year deal seemed like a decent deal. This was lower than what Fangraphs projected.

 

-IKF seemed like an overpay but the numbers are nominal and other than Chapman he seemed like the best 3B fit on the market. They probably see this as an upside play too. But this deal looks worse after the other infield options like Urshela signed for far less than we thought they would but no one has a crystal ball.

 

-Yariel got a good chunk of change but his AAV is low. If he’s even a number 5 pitcher that will be a decent contract. If he’s a #4 that will be a good deal. Another upside play.

 

Ok now all that makes some sense, especially in the timeframe in which those guys signed. But here’s the real kick in the nuts:

 

-Justin Turner signed very late into the offseason for 13.5 mil. By this point it was clear that the market was developing slowly and with ST starting in just a couple of weeks that some prices were going to drop. Chapman was still there as were plenty of DH options in JDM, Soler, Pham, Belt, etc. We also have Horwitz and then picked up Vogelbach for free. We weren’t desperate but Atkins made a desperation move. Even after what turned out to be overpays for KK and IKF, if he doesn’t sign Turner we STILL could have gotten Chapman. And at this point he should have known that there were going to be some bargains. Signing Turner is where Atkins really screwed up.

 

Really, the only explanation for this is that Atkins thinks Chapman is cooked after his final 4.5 months of the season and just doesn’t even want him. It’s possible he’s got some info that we don’t. It’s not like the rest of the league thinks Chapman is that good either. But this doesn’t square with the rumored contract we offered Chapman earlier this offseason.

 

I guess the other explanation would be if we signed Snell or spent money on someone else but that seems almost impossible after letting Chapman walk.

 

I’m not entirely off the Atkins train yet but I would like to formally apologize to the Atkins haters who were sticking a fork in this offseason a month or two ago. IKF and Yariel could ball out and make it turn out okay still but it seems like there were better moves to make.

 

Most of it can be explained by the developmental system being bad. Symptoms of the same problem.

 

When you aren't confident on your internal depth you can't really wait out free agency.

 

That being said, most teams misread the off-season. When the dust settles there will be a handful that read it right and profited. Cubs are one, Giants are two I guess. We will see who gets Snell for $25M.

[Terminator]

Most of the moves made sense at the time:

 

-Chad Green options were picked up very early in the offseason. Seemed like a solid move after the previous offseason saw far worse relievers getting more guaranteed money.

 

-KK on a one year deal seemed like a decent deal. This was lower than what Fangraphs projected.

 

-IKF seemed like an overpay but the numbers are nominal and other than Chapman he seemed like the best 3B fit on the market. They probably see this as an upside play too. But this deal looks worse after the other infield options like Urshela signed for far less than we thought they would but no one has a crystal ball.

 

-Yariel got a good chunk of change but his AAV is low. If he’s even a number 5 pitcher that will be a decent contract. If he’s a #4 that will be a good deal. Another upside play.

 

Ok now all that makes some sense, especially in the timeframe in which those guys signed. But here’s the real kick in the nuts:

 

-Justin Turner signed very late into the offseason for 13.5 mil. By this point it was clear that the market was developing slowly and with ST starting in just a couple of weeks that some prices were going to drop. Chapman was still there as were plenty of DH options in JDM, Soler, Pham, Belt, etc. We also have Horwitz and then picked up Vogelbach for free. We weren’t desperate but Atkins made a desperation move. Even after what turned out to be overpays for KK and IKF, if he doesn’t sign Turner we STILL could have gotten Chapman. And at this point he should have known that there were going to be some bargains. Signing Turner is where Atkins really screwed up.

 

Really, the only explanation for this is that Atkins thinks Chapman is cooked after his final 4.5 months of the season and just doesn’t even want him. It’s possible he’s got some info that we don’t. It’s not like the rest of the league thinks Chapman is that good either. But this doesn’t square with the rumored contract we offered Chapman earlier this offseason.

 

I guess the other explanation would be if we signed Snell or spent money on someone else but that seems almost impossible after letting Chapman walk.

 

I’m not entirely off the Atkins train yet but I would like to formally apologize to the Atkins haters who were sticking a fork in this offseason a month or two ago. IKF and Yariel could ball out and make it turn out okay still but it seems like there were better moves to make.

 

TL;DR: The other moves are okay in a vacuum but the one that really screwed us was signing Turner for 13.5 mil in February at a time when it looked like the market was going to put a squeeze on Chapman and others and there were still plenty of DHs out there.

[Jimcanuck]

I don't think Chapman wanted to come back. Period. He told the Jays as much and they acted accordingly.

 

The Jays offseason is entirely understandable if the above is true.

[Terminator]

I don't think Chapman wanted to come back. Period. He told the Jays as much and they acted accordingly.

 

The Jays offseason is entirely understandable if the above is true.

 

It’s possible. He’s from the Bay Area and has spent his whole career there other than two years with us. Perhaps he couldn’t swallow crawling back to TO after turning down 100 mil previously. But a new start for his hometown team was something he could take.

 

Regardless, now that his Jays career is over that was one hell of a trade. He piled up a bunch of WAR in a couple of seasons and now we get a comp pick. And we gave up nothing of significance in return.

[jaysblue]

Because we already signed 4 other guys (Green/IKF/KK/Turner) totalling about 40 million, not wanting to meet Chapmans's price or wait on him. A mistake.

 

I said at the time of the Green options being picked up and the IKF/KK signings that I had no issues with those deals as long as they don't financially strap the Jays from making other moves this offseason. Now I question those signings happening so early in the offseason since they prevented the Jays from adding better talent later on.

 

I don't have an issue with signing Turner as a DH. Wasn't my first or second choice, but regardless the team needed to spend around that much for a DH bat anyways, even if they signed Chapman for 3B.

[jaysblue]

It’s possible. He’s from the Bay Area and has spent his whole career there other than two years with us. Perhaps he couldn’t swallow crawling back to TO after turning down 100 mil previously. But a new start for his hometown team was something he could take.

 

Regardless, now that his Jays career is over that was one hell of a trade. He piled up a bunch of WAR in a couple of seasons and now we get a comp pick. And we gave up nothing of significance in return.

 

Yup was a fantastic trade by Atkins at the time. He wasn't a force like Josh Donaldson with the bat, but defensively was rock solid and provided tremendous value! Really solid two years here!

[wamco]

Yeah been saying JD Davis would be a fit all offseason. He’d be a perfect fit if we didn’t sign Turner but I’d still take him at this point. He’s in a FA year and he has flashed some serious offensive potential before. He gets labeled as a butcher at 3B on this board but his UZR is okay and his OAA is decent. Really just his DRS sucks.

 

Dude is 31 in 2 months. Better get moving fast on his potential.

[glory]

I don't think Chapman wanted to come back. Period. He told the Jays as much and they acted accordingly.

 

The Jays offseason is entirely understandable if the above is true.

 

That's possible, but that doesn't really excuse the off season. It just makes moving on from Chapman more sensible.

 

The Jays had the right plan (aim high and then go for short term vets when that failed) but the execution was about as bad as possible, even more so now that the market cratered.

[burlingtonbandit]

Most of the moves made sense at the time:

 

-Chad Green options were picked up very early in the offseason. Seemed like a solid move after the previous offseason saw far worse relievers getting more guaranteed money.

 

-KK on a one year deal seemed like a decent deal. This was lower than what Fangraphs projected.

 

-IKF seemed like an overpay but the numbers are nominal and other than Chapman he seemed like the best 3B fit on the market. They probably see this as an upside play too. But this deal looks worse after the other infield options like Urshela signed for far less than we thought they would but no one has a crystal ball.

 

-Yariel got a good chunk of change but his AAV is low. If heÂ’s even a number 5 pitcher that will be a decent contract. If heÂ’s a #4 that will be a good deal. Another upside play.

 

Ok now all that makes some sense, especially in the timeframe in which those guys signed. But hereÂ’s the real kick in the nuts:

 

-Justin Turner signed very late into the offseason for 13.5 mil. By this point it was clear that the market was developing slowly and with ST starting in just a couple of weeks that some prices were going to drop. Chapman was still there as were plenty of DH options in JDM, Soler, Pham, Belt, etc. We also have Horwitz and then picked up Vogelbach for free. We werenÂ’t desperate but Atkins made a desperation move. Even after what turned out to be overpays for KK and IKF, if he doesnÂ’t sign Turner we STILL could have gotten Chapman. And at this point he should have known that there were going to be some bargains. Signing Turner is where Atkins really screwed up.

 

Really, the only explanation for this is that Atkins thinks Chapman is cooked after his final 4.5 months of the season and just doesnÂ’t even want him. ItÂ’s possible heÂ’s got some info that we donÂ’t. ItÂ’s not like the rest of the league thinks Chapman is that good either. But this doesnÂ’t square with the rumored contract we offered Chapman earlier this offseason.

 

I guess the other explanation would be if we signed Snell or spent money on someone else but that seems almost impossible after letting Chapman walk.

 

IÂ’m not entirely off the Atkins train yet but I would like to formally apologize to the Atkins haters who were sticking a fork in this offseason a month or two ago. IKF and Yariel could ball out and make it turn out okay still but it seems like there were better moves to make.

 

 

Well Atkins offered more $ to Chapman at the beginning of the offseason so he must not think he's cooked, unless he's even a worse GM than we thought lol.

 

Its simple he just flat out misread the market. From KK to IKF to Chad Green to even Rodriguez all those players just seem like a "slight overpay" while IKK seems like a lot more.

 

I mean Atkins has been good with free agent singings so hopefully he's right this year, otherwise he quite easily is out of a job.

[Carlos Danger]

Well Atkins offered more $ to Chapman at the beginning of the offseason so he must not think he's cooked, unless he's even a worse GM than we thought lol.

 

Its simple he just flat out misread the market. From KK to IKF to Chad Green to even Rodriguez all those players just seem like a "slight overpay" while IKK seems like a lot more.

 

I mean Atkins has been good with free agent singings so hopefully he's right this year, otherwise he quite easily is out of a job.

 

I believe you have the timeline wrong. The Jays contract extension offer that was publicized was not offered after the playoffs this year or when Chapman was a FA.

 

The $100 million deal was supposedly floated sometime in spring/early summer of 2023 to prevent Chapman from going to FA.

[Terminator]

Dude is 31 in 2 months. Better get moving fast on his potential.

 

Well it’s more of a Brandon Belt catch lightning in a bottle situation with a veteran on a one year deal.

 

Giants resigned Flores too so they definitely will look to move Davis now I think.

[Stangstag]

I don't think Chapman wanted to come back. Period. He told the Jays as much and they acted accordingly.

 

The Jays offseason is entirely understandable if the above is true.

 

It’s possible. If Jays offered him like 3/60 or 3/65 he probably comes back though. But they would’ve had to wait him out.

 

Anyways im just angry we tied up 17.5 million in IKF and KK when it was completely unnecessary and it cost us better FAs later.

[JaysAllMighty]

Personally I won’t miss him, the guy can’t hit. Glad the Jays didn't sign him,

[glory]

It’s possible. If Jays offered him like 3/60 or 3/65 he probably comes back though. But they would’ve had to wait him out.

 

Anyways im just angry we tied up 17.5 million in IKF and KK when it was completely unnecessary and it cost us better FAs later.

 

I don’t like the IKF signing but I actually think it’s more justifiable than the KK signing. At least IKF is a great defensive player at a position where the Jays have no one competent anywhere in the org (based on how they moved Orelvis and Barger elsewhere), and he could easily shift to a utility role with no ego issues if a better option becomes available. Not to mention the market for 3B was ass. KK is a different story. Would have been fine if the Jays didn’t have a CF but just a poor use of assets there.

[burlingtonbandit]

Personally I wonÂ’t miss him, the guy canÂ’t hit. Glad the Jays didn't sign him,

 

You just wait until you see IKF with a bat in his hands with 2 guys in scoring position...

[hanton]

You just wait until you see IKF with a bat in his hands with 2 guys in scoring position...

 

Yep, there's potential of Chapman bouncing back, IKF has no where to bounce back from - he is what he is

[Jays24]

Max and Brownie better just stay in hiding for a while

 

Don't forget about Spanky who cries anytime you say anything bad about the Jays. Very suspicious how all 3 haven't posted. I'm guessing they're working hard on fangraphs trying to justify this offseason lol.

[Jays24]

Personally I won’t miss him, the guy can’t hit. Glad the Jays didn't sign him,

 

I'd agree with you if the alternative wasn't IFK who is poor man's version of Chappy at 3B. Im not even sure what direction this teams going in anymore lol

Edited March 2, 2024 by Jays24

[max silver]

Max and Brownie better just stay in hiding for a while

 

LMAO that's super rich from the dude who announced his permanent board departure only to come crawling back shortly afterwards. What a f***ing joke.

[max silver]

Don't forget about Spanky who cries anytime you say anything bad about the Jays. Very suspicious how all 3 haven't posted. I'm guessing they're working hard on fangraphs trying to justify this offseason lol.

 

I've simply been busy with other s*** lately. I'm not sure when I ever said I was particularly happy with how this offseason has unfolded but unlike you I don't spend 24 hours of every day bitching and moaning and generally acting like a teenage girl.

[BTS]

I try bringing up the Orioles game on MLB.tv using the app on my Sony smart TV. Get an error message saying I don't have access even though I get the same game on my laptop with the same account. Call MLB and they tell me MLB.tv no longer supports Sony TVs (what?). Now the game is working fine.

 

Every year I'm amazed at how s***** MLB is to people who are actually willing to pay $210 to watch their games. Lets focus on weekly Apple and Youtube games instead of actually having a streaming service that works.

[connorp]

I'd agree with you if the alternative wasn't IFK who is poor man's version of Chappy at 3B. We're we trying to get better this offseason and not worse? Lol

 

He’s not good enough to even be a poor man’s version of anyone good.

[MikeM3]

Atkins is paying real dollars for 1 war players when no good teams do that anymore. They pay 500k for 1 war and 20m for 3. They don't pay 20m for three 1 war players.

 

He should have seen it coming.

[Brownie19]

If I join you all as armchair GM's - then I fully agree. Atkins should have done absolutely nothing - waited it all out and signed both Belly and Chapman to the deals they ultimately signed. f*** KK, IKF, Green, Rodriquez. Trust guys like Cooke, Jimenez, Dallas, etc. to set in and contribute.

 

Springer - RF

Bo - SS

Vlad - 1st

Belly - LF

Chapman - 3rd

Jansen/Kirk - C

Varsho - CF

Schneider/Biggio - 2nd

Horwitz/Schneider/Orelvis/Barger - DH

 

Our depth would be really thin (but who cares or thinks about that?), but our lineup would be great.

 

Did Belly or Chapman want to play in Toronto? Would they have signed for the same deals? Who knows - easier to just ignore that.

 

Is it fair to expect the GM to read the market perfectly? Obviously some of you believe the answer is 100% yes - good GM's always read the market correctly. I'm not so sure that's fair. Are the Reds pissed their GM signed Candelario so early when they could have had Chapman? Are there 10 other teams out there kicking themselves because they didn't KNOW that Belly and Chapman would sign these deals? Probably.

 

What if this happens. Let's pretend Atkins knew the markets for Chapman and Belly would sink like they did. He declines Green, he doesn't sign anyone else because he KNOWS these 2 guys will be available on reasonable deals. He waits it out like a BOSS - only to find out that Chapman really doesn't want to play in TO again and is using them as leverage and SF is always going to have last right of refusal and they ultimately land Chapman. Jays read the market perfectly, yet still don't get him. Is anyone happy with that outcome? Even if you read the market perfectly, there's a risk you don't get the guy and are a left with very limited options.

 

That all said - I do wish we moved Varsho to CF and added power in the corners and I don't like the IKF signing. I don't know if he's good value, but I love Green and think haters would be all over Atkins if the pen struggled or guys like Pearson and Cooke couldn't step up. I don't love the Turner signing, but I don't hate it. I hope he has something left in the tank. I like the Rodriquez signing. We needed SPing depth and he's an upside play.

 

It's not a great offseason, but there are lot of factors involved in where we are today. Easy to sit back and rip on it when you know very little about those factors.

[Jays24]

Not sure if this is correct or not but is it true that the comp pick the Jays are getting for Chappy will be after the 4th Round?

[Carlos Danger]

It's not a great offseason, but there are lot of factors involved in where we are today. Easy to sit back and rip on it when you know very little about those factors.

 

The factors are: The FO has not built a solid enough farm to go out and get a Soto, a Glasnow, or get one of the Red's surplus IF that would have fit the bill. Or to be aggressive and get Suarez at 3b, early because AZ looked at the market and said that was the best play.

 

I am not sure what line of work you are in. I know I can't continue to give excuses and tell my boss's that I can't deliver results because I didn't set my self up for continued success after 7 years and I left myself with one option and it was not a good one.

 

It is a results oriented business for the fans anyway.

 

The "factors", are factors all other teams have to account for.

Edited March 2, 2024 by Carlos Danger

[Brownie19]

The factors are: The FO has not built a solid enough farm to go out and get a Soto, a Glasgow, or get one of the Red's surplus IF that would have fit the bill. Or to be aggressive and get Suarez at 3b, early because AZ looked at the market and said that was the best play.

 

I am not sure what line of work you are in. I know I can't continue to give excuses and tell my boss's that I can't deliver results because I didn't set my self up for continued success after 7 years and I left myself with one option and it was not a good one.

 

It is a results oriented business for the fans anyway.

 

The "factors", are factors all other teams have to account for.

 

Playoffs in 3 of the last 4 years (while missing 4 for 4 by 1 win) while being in a good position to make it again this year is likely considered by most within the organization to be good results. Hence why the boss hasn't fired him and continues to support him.