Arbitration Estimates

[AdamGreenwood]

Here are the arbitration estimates for the Blue Jays next season, and my picks for who to keep/release.

 

 

Adam Cimber (5.156): $3.2MM - Release

Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4MM - Keep

Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM - Keep

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4MM - Keep

Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3MM - Keep

Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7MM - Keep

Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7MM - Keep

Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7MM - Keep

Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4MM - Keep

Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5MM - Keep

Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5MM - Keep

Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6MM - Keep

Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K - Keep

[Laika]

Here are the arbitration estimates for the Blue Jays next season, and my picks for who to keep/release.

 

 

Adam Cimber (5.156): $3.2MM - Release

Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4MM - Keep

Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM - Keep

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4MM - Keep

Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3MM - Keep

Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7MM - Keep

Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7MM - Keep

Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7MM - Keep

Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4MM - Keep

Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5MM - Keep

Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5MM - Keep

Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6MM - Keep

Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K - Keep

 

Mostly no brainers

 

But they could explore trades of many of them.

[Orgfiller]

I think Richards is such a volatile relieve that at this point I'd just release him. He started out the season on fire, but in classic Trevor Richards form he completely blew up near the end of the year, to the point where you'd want him nowhere near a mound in a tight playoff game. The Ks are great, when the changeup is working it's one of the best pitches out there, but the fastball is a terrible pitch, his command is shaky, and he has a terrible tendency to give up some absolute bombs in bunches. Barely above replacement his whole reliever career. Spend the $2.4MM on a collection of league min relievers from the farm throughout the year, one of which is bound to produce similarly or better. Use the savings in conjunction with other money coming off the books to make an upgrade elsewhere.

 

Espinal at $2.5MM is okay I guess but also not someone you should be giving much more than the league min. to. I'd consider seeing if he bites at a cheaper one year deal, or consider non tendering him altogether.

[Laika]

Options are also relevant here.

 

Is Richards the only one out of options?

 

They can probably find a trade partner for Richards. Some team like Arizona. Their pen is mostly waiver wire fodder and replacement level youngsters.

[Orgfiller]

Options are also relevant here.

 

Is Richards the only one out of options?

 

Good call, I feel like this makes releasing him even more of an almost no-brainer decision. Cabrera has 1 remaining according to fangraphs, everyone else that's relevant (Pearson, Espinal, Biggio even) have at least 2.

[AdamGreenwood]

Richards was great all year, and even stepped up big time when we needed a starter.

But after the injury, he wasn't as good. Easily worth the risk of 2.4MM in my opinion.

[The Cats Ass]

Who/where do they come up with these estimates?

 

Guerrero Jr's is interesting. You could debate that he shouldn't get a raise at all considering his stats for last year.

[Terminator]

I think Richards is such a volatile relieve that at this point I'd just release him. He started out the season on fire, but in classic Trevor Richards form he completely blew up near the end of the year, to the point where you'd want him nowhere near a mound in a tight playoff game. The Ks are great, when the changeup is working it's one of the best pitches out there, but the fastball is a terrible pitch, his command is shaky, and he has a terrible tendency to give up some absolute bombs in bunches. Barely above replacement his whole reliever career. Spend the $2.4MM on a collection of league min relievers from the farm throughout the year, one of which is bound to produce similarly or better. Use the savings in conjunction with other money coming off the books to make an upgrade elsewhere.

 

Espinal at $2.5MM is okay I guess but also not someone you should be giving much more than the league min. to. I'd consider seeing if he bites at a cheaper one year deal, or consider non tendering him altogether.

 

I assumed Richards and Espinal were keepers but those are interesting points. Clement could replace Espinal and you'd save a couple mil. And dumping Richards could help pay for a little bit of Chad Green's options.

[BatFlip]

Here are the arbitration estimates for the Blue Jays next season, and my picks for who to keep/release.

 

 

Adam Cimber (5.156): $3.2MM - Release

Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4MM - Keep

Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM - Keep

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4MM - Keep

Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3MM - Keep

Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7MM - Keep

Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7MM - Keep

Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7MM - Keep

Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4MM - Keep

Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5MM - Keep

Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5MM - Keep

Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6MM - Keep

Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K - Keep

 

 

I would think Cimber and possibly Richards are the only non-keepers. I'd like to see Espinal go, but I'm pretty sure they'll retain him.

[Jonn]

Here are the arbitration estimates for the Blue Jays next season, and my picks for who to keep/release.

 

 

Adam Cimber (5.156): $3.2MM - Release

Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4MM - Keep

Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM - Keep

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4MM - Keep

Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3MM - Keep

Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7MM - Keep

Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7MM - Keep

Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7MM - Keep

Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4MM - Keep

Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5MM - Keep

Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5MM - Keep

Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6MM - Keep

Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K - Keep

 

I agree with all of these except for Espinal. Cut bait. He can back on a minor league deal if he wants.

[John_Havok]

Cimber and Espinal are both releases imo. Espinal won't be expensive but he is easily replaced by Clement. Richards should be traded as I think having so multiple "meh fastball/excellent changeup" guys isn't ideal, though it can also be beneficial if they never pitch on the same days. I just find that there's enough in house options and FA targets that he could be dealt to get something half decent back. And use the savings in conjunction with other savings to try and keep Hicks.

 

The rest are no brainer keeps but some trade possibilities also exist

[Steeljays]

Would love to package Pearson++ in a deal while he still has value with swing and miss, which teams seem to love

[Laika]

Would love to package Pearson++ in a deal while he still has value with swing and miss, which teams seem to love

 

He has basically no value

[John_Havok]

Would love to package Pearson++ in a deal while he still has value with swing and miss, which teams seem to love

 

Pearson is maybe half a point higher than a lottery ticket

[deanmike]

Adam Cimber (5.156): $3.2MM - Release

Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4MM - Keep

Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM - Keep

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4MM - Trade

Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3MM - Keep

Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7MM - Trade

Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7MM - Keep

Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7MM - Keep

Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4MM - Keep

Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5MM - Trade

Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5MM - Keep

Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6MM - Keep

Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K - Keep

 

Edit: some good points in this thread swayed me on Richards.

Edited October 14, 2023 by deanmike

[Omar]

Adam Cimber (5.156): $3.2MM - Release

Trevor Richards (5.084): $2.4MM - Trade

Danny Jansen (5.050): $5.2MM - Keep

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (4.157): $20.4MM - Trade

Tim Mayza (4.156): $3.3MM - Keep

Cavan Biggio (4.129): $3.7MM - Trade

Erik Swanson (4.096): $2.7MM - Keep

Jordan Romano (4.051): $7.7MM - Keep

Genesis Cabrera (4.011): $1.4MM - Keep

Santiago Espinal (3.149): $2.5MM - Trade

Daulton Varsho (3.128): $5.5MM - Keep

Alejandro Kirk (3.047): $2.6MM - Keep

Nate Pearson (3.005): $800K - Keep

 

 

Congratulations! Espinal, Biggio and Richards will keep the soda machine filled through 2025.

[jaysblue]

They can probably find a trade partner for Richards. Some team like Arizona. Their pen is mostly waiver wire fodder and replacement level youngsters.

 

Richards ends up being the closer in Arizona, saves 40 games, strikes out 100 + and has an ERA below 3.

[Jonn]

I really think people are overreacting to Richards struggles. He clearly wasn't the same game after he was activated. I'm not convinced he was fully healthy. He was so good a vast majority of the Season. And he still had an incredible season despite his inflated ERA by seasons end. He's definitely a guy I want in the mix again next season.

[jaysblue]

I wouldn't get rid of Richards. Before he went on the IL, his numbers were great. Don't give up a high K arm like him for nothing.

[vdartanian]

Who/where do they come up with these estimates?

 

Guerrero Jr's is interesting. You could debate that he shouldn't get a raise at all considering his stats for last year.

 

Yeah this is extremely confusing why Guerrero would be projected for that type of raise. Kyle Tucker is projected for 12.6M and has basically the same service time as Vlad, and (total HR's and RBI's aside) has been a much better offensive and defensive player over the course of their respective careers. I'd like to see the argument from Vlad's agent side that says he is worth 20+M.

[Spanky99]

Yeah this is extremely confusing why Guerrero would be projected for that type of raise. Kyle Tucker is projected for 12.6M and has basically the same service time as Vlad, and (total HR's and RBI's aside) has been a much better offensive and defensive player over the course of their respective careers. I'd like to see the argument from Vlad's agent side that says he is worth 20+M.

 

I believe those 2 are a year difference in arb, Tucker will likely get 20+M next year or more. Also the arb. process looks at HR's and RBI's sadly, it is what it is.

[BigCecil]

I believe those 2 are a year difference in arb, Tucker will likely get 20+M next year or more. Also the arb. process looks at HR's and RBI's sadly, it is what it is.

 

Tucker WAR last 3 seasons. Its hard for a player to be any more consistently productive at a high level. His arb raise is justified. Vlad's - not so much:

 

2021: 4.7

2022: 4.8

2023: 4.9

 

Career 132 wRC+

[John_Havok]

Tucker WAR last 3 seasons. Its hard for a player to be any more consistently productive at a high level. His arb raise is justified. Vlad's - not so much:

 

2021: 4.7

2022: 4.8

2023: 4.9

 

Career 132 wRC+

 

Yes but arb raises don't just go by what happened the prior season, but rather all the seasons leading up.

 

Vlads career wrc+ to date is 130. Tucker 132.

Vlad 130 HR, Tucker 102

RBI...404 to 368 I'm favour of Vlad.

Runs scored 377 to 309... Vlad.

 

Tucker would definitely get the edge in consistency though.

 

Flawed system or not, Vlad is gonna still get paid in arb very well thanks largely to 2021.

[BigCecil]

Yes but arb raises don't just go by what happened the prior season, but rather all the seasons leading up.

 

Vlads career wrc+ to date is 130. Tucker 132.

Vlad 130 HR, Tucker 102

RBI...404 to 368 I'm favour of Vlad.

Runs scored 377 to 309... Vlad.

 

Tucker would definitely get the edge in consistency though.

 

Flawed system or not, Vlad is gonna still get paid in arb very well thanks largely to 2021.

 

I realize that. I'm just saying in if anyone deserves an arb raise its Tucker. "deserves' doesn't mean that much.

[Spanky99]

Tucker WAR last 3 seasons. Its hard for a player to be any more consistently productive at a high level. His arb raise is justified. Vlad's - not so much:

 

2021: 4.7

2022: 4.8

2023: 4.9

 

Career 132 wRC+

 

Yes, that's why I mentioned he might get a little more than Vlad next season. Tucker's a beast.

[Marew]

Why don’t we just trade Vlad for Tucker? Less money, better player.

[Jonn]

Why don’t we just trade Vlad for Tucker? Less money, better player.

 

Probably because this isn't MLB The Show. You can't just set Trade Difficulty off lol.

[Stangstag]

Why don’t we just trade Vlad for Tucker? Less money, better player.

 

Im pretty sure any of us would make that move if it was a possibility

[John_Havok]

I realize that. I'm just saying in if anyone deserves an arb raise its Tucker. "deserves' doesn't mean that much.

 

Yeah you’re right, deserves is a weird word when it comes to star players in their first 7 seasons, since they “deserve” far more than they actually get

[BigCecil]

Yeah you’re right, deserves is a weird word when it comes to star players in their first 7 seasons, since they “deserve” far more than they actually get

 

Yes. In business, I live by this stolen mantra: "In business, you don't get what you deserve, you get what you negotiate".

 

In this case these rules are all CBA determined via those negotiations correct?