2023 MLB Postseason Thread

[Stangstag]

Watching the remaining 4 teams (well now 3).... how many Blue Jay position players make any of these teams, maybe Springer, Bo.....not many. We have a long way to go.

 

Most of the offense underperformed this year.

 

I wouldn’t trade our pitching staff for any of the remaining teams.

 

Baseball isn’t just about offense…

[MikeM3]

Don't know how much it ended up mattering but wow Baker is terrible

[max silver]

The fact it's even close says everything you need to know. KK is the better defender, baserunner and bat.

 

Now Varsho is a great defender and base runner himself but the only thing Varsho has over KK is more power.

 

Only 1 out of 3 of these is true, and just barely true at that.

 

Since Varsho became an MLB regular in 2021 he's been a much better defender and baserunner than Kiermaier, and they are only a few percentage points away from each other with the bat.

 

From 2021-2023 Varsho received 1488 plate appearances, produced an overall offensive output of 97 WRC+, 9.2 total FWAR (3.4 FWAR/550 PA), 11.2 BsR (4.14 BsR/550 PA).

 

From 2021-2023 Kiermaier received 1041 plate appearances, produced an overall offensive output of 100 WRC+, 5.7 total FWAR (3.01 FWAR/550 PA) , 2.7 BsR (1.43 BsR/550 PA).

 

Varsho has handily outperformed Kiermaier defensively in center field, and it's actually not particularly close on a rate basis.

 

From 2021-2023 Varsho provided 21 DRS and 19 OAA in center field in 1019 innings. This equates to 20.6 DRS/1000 innings and 18.5 OAA/1000 innings.

 

From 2021-2023 Kiermaier provided 21 DRS and 25 OAA in center field in 2358 innings. This equates to 8.9 DRS/1000 innings and 10.6 OAA/1000 innings.

 

When comparing the two in relative value expected salary also needs to be factored in. I've seen estimates for Varsho to receive a $5.5 million arbitration based salary in 2024, vs Kiermaier who will likely be looking at a similar $9+ million salary for 2024. Moving forward Varsho is almost certainly going to be cheaper, provide more value in the field defensively, more value on the bases, close to the same value offensively, and be much likelier to remain healthy and available to play every day. By keeping Kiermaier the team would essentially be forcing Varsho to a corner outfield spot where he becomes far less valuable, and spending more money that would be far wiser to allocate to other needs vs rostering two elite center field defenders who need to be sheltered a bit vs top left handed pitching.

[Laika]

Watching the remaining 4 teams (well now 3).... how many Blue Jay position players make any of these teams, maybe Springer, Bo.....not many. We have a long way to go.

 

Do you mean make or start? If you include the outgoing free agents...

 

Springer, Bo, Varsho, Kirk, Jansen, Chapman, Keirmaier, and Vlad probably all start on at least one of the four semi-finalists. Biggio, Babe, probably make the bench for somebody. Belt probably is a platoon DH on one of the teams.

 

Many of the bullpen pitchers make most of their pens. The top 4 SP on the depth chart make every team in some capacity.

[hanton]

Do you mean make or start? If you include the outgoing free agents...

 

Springer, Bo, Varsho, Kirk, Jansen, Chapman, Keirmaier, and Vlad probably all start on at least one of the four semi-finalists. Biggio, Babe, probably make the bench for somebody. Belt probably is a platoon DH on one of the teams.

 

Many of the bullpen pitchers make most of their pens. The top 4 SP on the depth chart make every team in some capacity.

 

Start (position players only)

[Terminator]

Start (position players only)

 

It's really hard to make these kind of arguments when the Diamondbacks (-15 run differential) are 1 win away from the World Series.

 

We beat them across the board...lineup, rotation, bullpen, etc. Nearly everything.

[BTS]

It's really hard to make these kind of arguments when the Diamondbacks (-15 run differential) are 1 win away from the World Series.

 

We beat them across the board...lineup, rotation, bullpen, etc. Nearly everything.

 

They're also starting Evan Longoria at 3B, a DH who would be the short side of a platoon with Barndon belt, boring league average players at LF, SS, and CF if Alek Thomas isn't actually bad. Toronto's pitching staff is flat out better. The idea that the Jays are behind Arizona is silly.

[Laika]

It's really hard to make these kind of arguments when the Diamondbacks (-15 run differential) are 1 win away from the World Series.

 

We beat them across the board...lineup, rotation, bullpen, etc. Nearly everything.

 

107 wRC+ vs 97 wRC+

 

But 746 runs scored by both teams

 

Toronto was so f***ing horrible in the clutch this year. It's wild.

 

The DBacks are better "clutch" and better on the bases by a wide margin. But everything else is edge Toronto and it's not close.

[Brownie19]

bro it's random in game chat....lmao

 

Just like to point out when the Manager goes with the nerd stats and probabilities and it works out in his favor. Seems we only hear about the failures of analytics, when fans think a manager should have used the eye test / gut test.

[connorp]

107 wRC+ vs 97 wRC+

 

But 746 runs scored by both teams

 

Toronto was so f***ing horrible in the clutch this year. It's wild.

 

The DBacks are better "clutch" and better on the bases by a wide margin. But everything else is edge Toronto and it's not close.

 

Bro… Carroll, Marte, and Walker were all much more dangerous hitters coming into the playoffs. They all did their job and had a guy or two help them.

 

Bo was just barely .800 OPS bat and prob under that the second half..

 

They got exposed in the playoffs. “Depth” everyone .750 OPS bat got exposed by playoff pitching. Which I proved to your clueless people becomes harder to hit.. here we are again rehashing

 

AZ got through rounds with their big bats coming though. Jays didn’t do s***, just like all year. Cry me a River

[connorp]

Also Philly will win. Good show by AZ to come this far though

[Laika]

Bro… Carroll, Marte, and Walker were all much more dangerous hitters coming into the playoffs. They all did their job and had a guy or two help them.

 

Bo was just barely .800 OPS bat and prob under that the second half..

 

They got exposed in the playoffs. “Depth” everyone .750 OPS bat got exposed by playoff pitching. Which I proved to your clueless people becomes harder to hit.. here we are again rehashing

 

AZ got through rounds with their big bats coming though. Jays didn’t do s***, just like all year. Cry me a River

 

I don't know what point you are trying to make but I don't really care because I don't respect you as a poster or a person.

 

f***ing Alek Thomas has four playoff homers, lmao.

[connorp]

Jays were an unbalanced team. Put too much stock in OF Corner defense that you guys jerked off over all year. Then it’s a fluke when they can’t score in 2 playoff games

[connorp]

I don't know what point you are trying to make but I don't really care because I don't respect you as a poster or a person.

 

f***ing Alek Thomas has four playoff homers, lmao.

 

You put all your time into trying to tune out randomness researching regular season stats…

Then come the playoffs… you throw up your hands and say “randomness”, what can you do

It’s beyond stupid but I can’t tell you how to live your life.

[Terminator]

Bro… Carroll, Marte, and Walker were all much more dangerous hitters coming into the playoffs. They all did their job and had a guy or two help them.

 

Bo was just barely .800 OPS bat and prob under that the second half..

 

They got exposed in the playoffs. “Depth” everyone .750 OPS bat got exposed by playoff pitching. Which I proved to your clueless people becomes harder to hit.. here we are again rehashing

 

AZ got through rounds with their big bats coming though. Jays didn’t do s***, just like all year. Cry me a River

 

Lol whatever team ended up doing well you'd have some sort of post hoc explanation on why they are actually a great team.

 

And yeah Marte is crushing it. Caroll is doing well but nothing amazing (.800 OPS) and Walker is doing ok (.726 OPS). But really it's their .750 OPS "depth" hitters that you claim can't hit in the playoffs that are getting them through. Moreno, Perdomo, Alek Thomas, etc.

 

Even the supposed "ace pitcher" that you guys kept pointing to as some sort of proof of why they are a dangerous playoff team has an ERA well over 5.

[Terminator]

If you guys think the Diamondbacks are NLCS material then let's make a bet on if they make it that far next year. I'll even give you odds. 3 to 1, 5 to 1, you name it.

 

This year is a fluke and you all know it.

[max silver]

Jays were an unbalanced team. Put too much stock in OF Corner defense that you guys jerked off over all year. Then it’s a fluke when they can’t score in 2 playoff games

 

George Springer came into the season with a 134 career WRC+. It you honestly thought he was going to suddenly regress to a league average bat in 2023 then good for you I guess.

[connorp]

George Springer came into the season with a 134 career WRC+. It you honestly thought he was going to suddenly regress to a league average bat in 2023 then good for you I guess.

 

That is a separate issue. I would not have guessed Vlad and him would be that bad coming into the season. By the time the playoffs came around, it was clear what not to expect

[connorp]

Lol whatever team ended up doing well you'd have some sort of post hoc explanation on why they are actually a great team.

 

And yeah Marte is crushing it. Caroll is doing well but nothing amazing (.800 OPS) and Walker is doing ok (.726 OPS). But really it's their .750 OPS "depth" hitters that you claim can't hit in the playoffs that are getting them through. Moreno, Perdomo, Alek Thomas, etc.

 

Even the supposed "ace pitcher" that you guys kept pointing to as some sort of proof of why they are a dangerous playoff team has an ERA well over 5.

 

They were carried to the LCS by their horses. Anything can happen in a single series of course. Philly is still winning

[connorp]

Ops after LAD series

 

Carroll- 1.389

Marte- .984

Walker 1.023

Moreno- 1.107

 

Thomas notable at .812 but .211 average. Perdomo .167/.792

[Laika]

You put all your time into trying to tune out randomness researching regular season stats…

Then come the playoffs… you throw up your hands and say “randomness”, what can you do

It’s beyond stupid but I can’t tell you how to live your life.

 

sample size matters, bitch

[Laika]

Ops after LAD series

 

Carroll- 1.389

Marte- .984

Walker 1.023

Moreno- 1.107

 

Thomas notable at .812 but .211 average. Perdomo .167/.792

 

Sir you just quoted a 5 game sample size

[Stangstag]

Jays were an unbalanced team. Put too much stock in OF Corner defense that you guys jerked off over all year. Then it’s a fluke when they can’t score in 2 playoff games

 

Strawman. Did anyone say it was a fluke that we didn’t score?? We had those problems most of the season. We were hoping for a hot stretch at the right time which didn’t happen.

[Stangstag]

Ops after LAD series

 

Carroll- 1.389

Marte- .984

Walker 1.023

Moreno- 1.107

 

Thomas notable at .812 but .211 average. Perdomo .167/.792

 

Cherry-picked.

 

Yeah clearly the Diamondbacks are just a better team than the Dodgers.

 

I can’t believe you’re this f***ing stubborn

[connorp]

Cherry-picked.

 

Yeah clearly the Diamondbacks are just a better team than the Dodgers.

 

I can’t believe you’re this f***ing stubborn

 

How is it cherry picked. Those are all of their star bats. I’m saying you need star bats in the Post-season

You guys are basically quoting wRC+ for the Jays, 7th in baseball, like it doesn’t matter they don’t have any star bats

[connorp]

Moreno kind of admittedly doesn’t belong in there, but he’s a hot topic here, so it’s relevant.

 

Jays don’t have anything comparable to him though. Big time rookie that turned it on 2nd half, so can’t say wasn’t fluke

[Laika]

How is it cherry picked. Those are all of their star bats. I’m saying you need star bats in the Post-season

You guys are basically quoting wRC+ for the Jays, 7th in baseball, like it doesn’t matter they don’t have any star bats

 

Corbin Carroll is their only star

 

Marte is up and down. He hit 12 homers last year. 94 wRC+ in 2020.

Christian Walker's 120 wRC+ this year was worse than Belt, Bo, and about tied with Vlad. If he's a star then Brandon Belt should have carried Toronto!

 

Moreno was a 7 HR rookie, lol. He was out fWAR'd by Davis Schneider.

[Terminator]

Connor cracked the code you guys. Christian Walker and Ketel Marte (both with career a OPS under .800) are the true "star bats" necessary for playoff baseball success.

 

Someone get Andrew Friedman on the phone because Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman ain't it. You need real stars like Christian Walker and Ketel Marte.

[max silver]

Moreno kind of admittedly doesn’t belong in there, but he’s a hot topic here, so it’s relevant.

 

Jays don’t have anything comparable to him though. Big time rookie that turned it on 2nd half, so can’t say wasn’t fluke

 

Davis Schneider and his 176 WRC+ has entered the chat.

[Brownie19]

Cherry-picked.

 

Yeah clearly the Diamondbacks are just a better team than the Dodgers.

 

I can’t believe you’re this f***ing stubborn

 

you spelt stupid wrong...