2023 MLB Postseason Thread

[L54]

Kirk is only a year older but the 1st and 3rd year comparison isn't great - lot smaller sample size for Moreno. Kirk's body type and weight is a real issue for performance and longevity.

 

Isn't the only skill Kirk has a material advantage over Moreno framing? They are close on blocking. Pop time and throwing is no contest. Framing going to diminish in the value equation by 25-26 when they implement the robo ump appeal system on balls/strikes. AZ has Moreno until '29. Kirk's lack of speed is a significant negative with his contact bat - GIDP machine.

 

But I agree with L54 C is not our biggest issue and Kirk is a good option - pretty much a lock for 2+ WAR. Hopefully he gets in better shape.

 

Ya it’s like complaining about Bo. There are far bigger fish to fry than those two positions

[Laika]

Skill .... Kirk .... Moreno (all skill run values are approximations)

 

DEFENSE

 

Framing: .... +8 .... -2

Arm (SB): .... 0 .... +6

Blocking: .... +4 .... +2

Misc. "good fielding:.... +2 .... +4

 

BASERUNNING:

 

BsR: .... -8 .... -4 Assuming Moreno is not as bad as his 2023 results which were basically as rough as Kirk's

 

BATTING:

 

BB% .... 10.6% .... 7.3%

K% .... 11% .... 18.3%

ISO .... .134 .... .112

MaxEV .... 110.1 .... 109.7

Barrel% .... 6.8% .... 4.5%

 

I'm not sure if you can say good or bad on the career batted ball profiles. Moreno has a higher career LD rate and a higher BABIP. Kirk has a higher career FB rate. Moreno probably "earns" some of his higher BABIP, but probably not all of it. Kirk's batted ball profile is superior IF he can find his 2022 and 2021 pop again, I think.

 

 

So.... DEFENSE + BSR all things considered is probably just a wash.

 

The superior player will be defined by the sticks. I feel like Kirk has better inherent skills; his career B and KK rates are way better and the power potential seems very similar. Moreno however may have better "tools" i.e. he could have skills not showing up yet in the numbers.

[BTS]

Verlander vs. Montgomery tonight is going to be awesome. JV is going to find a way.

[Jimcanuck]

Again, Moreno's rookie year

 

Moreno's 1st half 78 wRC+ and 2nd half 141 wRC+ is the key observation, suggesting he has made an adjustment to MLB and is on his way to being an elite C

 

IMO, the biggest mistake of Atkins tenure will turn out to be trading Moreno instead of Kirk

[hanton]

Again, Moreno's rookie year

 

Moreno's 1st half 78 wRC+ and 2nd half 141 wRC+ is the key observation, suggesting he has made an adjustment to MLB and is on his way to being an elite C

 

IMO, the biggest mistake of Atkins tenure will turn out to be trading Moreno instead of Kirk

 

and we'll never know if Kirk was offered up instead of Moreno - my feeling is he wasn't

[Spanky__99]

Again, Moreno's rookie year

 

Moreno's 1st half 78 wRC+ and 2nd half 141 wRC+ is the key observation, suggesting he has made an adjustment to MLB and is on his way to being an elite C

 

IMO, the biggest mistake of Atkins tenure will turn out to be trading Moreno instead of Kirk

 

 

Fantastic move

 

I expect this is the result of weeks of negotiations

 

Jays have an insane lineup now

 

Sign an SP and this is a team built to win

 

...

[Laika]

Again, Moreno's rookie year

 

Moreno's 1st half 78 wRC+ and 2nd half 141 wRC+ is the key observation, suggesting he has made an adjustment to MLB and is on his way to being an elite C

 

IMO, the biggest mistake of Atkins tenure will turn out to be trading Moreno instead of Kirk

 

You are talking about 41 games in the 2nd half. Cute narrative aside, there is not much information in that sample.

 

Also, if you want to throw narratives around... lots of young catchers show flashes of greatness and then the physical demands of the position wear them down or limit their actual production. Moreno has barely had to deal with that. He caught 87 games across all levels in 2022 and then 111 this year.

 

Basically - we still haven't seen the pitching in the league adjust to Moreno, and we still don't know how he will hold up.

 

We kind of know what Alejandro Kirk's FLOOR is. We just saw it. We have seen pitchers adjust to him. He sort of looks durable (but too early to reallllly say).

[glory]

Kirk from 2020 through June 2022:

460 PA, 3.7 WAR, .291.376/.486, 142 wRC+, .195 ISO

 

From from July 2022 - present:

717 PA, 2.7 WAR, .253/.336/.348, 97 wRC+, .095 ISO

 

I used those dates because July 2022 was when Kirk's power decline began, and it just continued from there. I'm not sure what lead to the power decline, but the ISO dipped significantly and never recovered. I think a lot of people are still clinging to the hope that he's closer to the pre-July 2022 player rather than the post, but there's more sample size (and more recency) with the below average slap hitter, unfortunately.

 

I think keeping Kirk over Moreno will prove to be a mistake, even if Varsho rebounds (which I expect/hope he will). Even if you got less back for Kirk, it might have still been worth it if it filled a need somewhere. The player Kirk has become post July 2022 is an ok starter/great backup. If Jansen could ever stay healthy I don't think it's a contest of which one is the better player at this point, but Atkins seems to think extending young players is against the CBA, so this might be Jansen's last season here. Of course if Kirk's power suddenly comes back, then the discussion (vs Moreno and Jansen) changes.

[BigCecil]

Ya it’s like complaining about Bo. There are far bigger fish to fry than those two positions

 

We do for sure. But at the end of the day we need more than 4.8 combined WAR from Bo and Vlad, or our fish will go rotten no matter what we do.

[Laika]

Kirk from 2020 through June 2022:

460 PA, 3.7 WAR, .291.376/.486, 142 wRC+, .195 ISO

 

From from July 2022 - present:

717 PA, 2.7 WAR, .253/.336/.348, 97 wRC+, .095 ISO

 

I used those dates because July 2022 was when Kirk's power decline began, and it just continued from there. I'm not sure what lead to the power decline, but the ISO dipped significantly and never recovered. I think a lot of people are still clinging to the hope that he's closer to the pre-July 2022 player rather than the post, but there's more sample size (and more recency) with the below average slap hitter, unfortunately.

 

I think keeping Kirk over Moreno will prove to be a mistake, even if Varsho rebounds (which I expect/hope he will). Even if you got less back for Kirk, it might have still been worth it if it filled a need somewhere. The player Kirk has become post July 2022 is an ok starter/great backup. If Jansen could ever stay healthy I don't think it's a contest of which one is the better player at this point, but Atkins seems to think extending young players is against the CBA, so this might be Jansen's last season here. Of course if Kirk's power suddenly comes back, then the discussion (vs Moreno and Jansen) changes.

 

It might be as simple as a fitness issue. I could see how being 80 pounds overweight might inhibit his ability to hit for power, while being say 40 pounds overweight may not be detrimental. At some point your swing mechanics are affected and out of balance. He was definitely fatter than ever in 2023.

[L54]

We do for sure. But at the end of the day we need more than 4.8 combined WAR from Bo and Vlad, or our fish will go rotten no matter what we do.

 

It’s the 1.2 or whatever WAR from Vlad that drags that # down

[connorp]

...

 

Post of the day! f***ing Jim

[Jimcanuck]

...

 

I still think Moreno for Varsho was a good deal, even if Varsho had a down year.

 

I also think trading Moreno instead of Kirk was a huge mistake.

 

The above positions are not inconsistent.

[Terminator]

Player development is non-linear, even more so for Catchers.

 

Danny Jansen is a pretty good example. He was an offense-oriented prospect, couldn't hit for s*** when called up to the bigs but was a defensive stud, and has now settled into a pretty solid power-hitting Catcher with good but not great defense.

 

Heck, even veterans experience a ton of variance year to year. JT Realmuto seems to alternate between a 128 wRC+ bat or a 107 wRC+ bat each year.

[Terminator]

There's the old saying TINSTAAPP. That also extends to Catchers. TINSTAACP.

 

We had a young C with HoF comps, a good veteran and a top prospect. For a contender in need of OF help, trading the prospect for an OF coming off a 5 WAR year made sense.

 

Now the trade looks like it might be blowing up in our faces (it's not a foregone conclusion yet) but that doesn't mean the thought process behind it was bad.

[Terminator]

...

 

Wow Jim, Spanky brought some receipts bud

[Spanky__99]

I still think Moreno for Varsho was a good deal, even if Varsho had a down year.

 

I also think trading Moreno instead of Kirk was a huge mistake.

 

The above positions are not inconsistent.

 

[Laika]

Say it with me!

 

Nooooobody wanted to trade for Kirk. He looks like a f***ing meatball. wOBA and framing are for nerds.

[Terminator]

"Kirk f***ing sucks. He's fat and he won't age well."

 

"We should have traded Kirk for something good instead of Moreno."

[Jonn]

"Kirk f***ing sucks. He's fat and he won't age well."

 

"We should have traded Kirk for something good instead of Moreno."

 

I thought trading Kirk after his career year was an absolute no brainer. They probably wouldn't have got Varsho but you could argue they didn't need him after signing Kiermaier.

 

It would be nice to have a good young controllable Outfielder but Varsho is s*** so. Were pretty much in the same position last off-season only we have a huge hole in the Outfield and at Catcher. I like Danny Jansen but he can't stay on the field.

 

As orgnaization that prides itself on having state of the art facilitates and made a huge investment on player health and performance. We can't continue to trot out Fatties. It sends a bad message. Like I don't even think you should be allowed to play if you haven't hit a certain body fat percentage.

[connorp]

The Rangers got exposed last night, getting to back end of the rotation for the first time I believe.

They could button that up next year signing Bauer. Maybe the loser of this series signs Bauer. Texas is a good location for him.

[BTS]

JV using his old man wiles to get out of a spot there

[BigCecil]

Another solid head to head here with Montgomery and a 40 year old Verlander who looks tonight like he might have another 2-3 years in him.

 

Amazing that he lost so much time due to TJ at that age and bounced back to be this effective.

[JFD]

Semien s***ing the bed in the post season like a true Blue Jay

[BTS]

It warms my heart to see Jose Abreu coming up with big hits in the playoffs.

[BigCecil]

The at bats from Alvarez and Abreu there battling to stay alive with 2 strikes to get the bat on the ball to put it in play to go ahead were pretty amazing.

[BigCecil]

Semien diving stab to save 2 runs and end the inning. Pretty play.

[Spanky__99]

Wow! Big fly!

 

Someone check that dude for Roids!

[Stangstag]

Damn that was sick

[Stangstag]

"Kirk f***ing sucks. He's fat and he won't age well."

 

"We should have traded Kirk for something good instead of Moreno."

 

It’s exhausting. If we had traded Kirk and he had a season with the bat close to what his projections were (120ish wRC+) and Moreno struggled, everyone would be whining that we traded the proven player.