General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Barrelsandbombs]

I think Horwitz is more likely to be the DH next season than 1B. Jays will probably do a Wagner platoon at 2B, Horwitz platoon at DH, Bo at SS, make the best 1B or 3B free agent/trade acquisition available to them, and Vladdy plays the other position.

[BigCecil]

I think Horwitz is more likely to be the DH next season than 1B. Jays will probably do a Wagner platoon at 2B, Horwitz platoon at DH, Bo at SS, make the best 1B or 3B free agent/trade acquisition available to them, and Vladdy plays the other position.

 

Hortwitz has impressed. Bit concerned about a 54 wRC+ vs LHP for a DH. But a useful player to have in the line up to work in.

[John_Havok]

Yeah it would certainly hurt the defense, but this set up has far more potential to help the offense with the right moves. The question is whether the offensive improvement would be worth the defensive downgrade. Depends on what's out there and what's realistic for the team to acquire, I guess. I just don't see a realistic avenue to add a legit starting 3B unless you want to give Alex Bregman more money than Chapman just got.

 

Ha-song Kim has played a bit of 3rd. Plus defender there too. Not a massive power guy but probably 15ish HRs.

 

5 fwar guy

[glory]

Ha-song Kim has played a bit of 3rd. Plus defender there too. Not a massive power guy but probably 15ish HRs.

 

5 fwar guy

 

Never thought of Kim as a 3B option, more so a SS, but I guess you're right the Jays could try to sign him to play 3B. I believe they were interested in him when he was coming out of the KBO a few years ago.

[Spanky99]

You're really throwing out some conspiracies this week.

 

Like Bo faking injury? lol...

 

Sept. 25: SS Bo Bichette (fractured right middle finger) to undergo surgery

Bichette's surgery, which will see a pin inserted into his fractured right middle finger, is scheduled for Wednesday. The fracture was "displaced," according to manager John Schneider, so this will help the bone set properly. Barring anything unexpected, the Blue Jays are planning on Bichette being fully healthy for Spring Training in February.

[Spanky99]

Of course you can't lol. And nice cherry picking as usual. Take away that rough week and a half where he allowed 11 earned runs, and it makes things all better! Can forget he's going to be 34 and about the career worst K/9 of 7.74, 4.35 FIP along with 0 WAR this season!

 

He hasn't been a disaster man, what's wrong with you? Top 50 RA9-WAR, the contract's been a wash, just no surplus value.

[jaysblue]

Ha-song Kim has played a bit of 3rd. Plus defender there too. Not a massive power guy but probably 15ish HRs.

 

5 fwar guy

 

Was talking with one of my friends the other day, and he thinks the Jays sign Kim during the offseason. Looks like a typical Atkins type of signing. Have the chance to sign a 3-4 WAR player likely who can play an infield position and leadoff. How much do you think he costs?

[jaysblue]

Yeah - I agree with that. Hopefully they can get creative. Trade for Brett Baty.

 

Sounds great! Who do you suggest the Jays trade for him? I still bet the Mets value him highly and aren't giving him away for pennies.

[John_Havok]

Was talking with one of my friends the other day, and he thinks the Jays sign Kim during the offseason. Looks like a typical Atkins type of signing. Have the chance to sign a 3-4 WAR player likely who can play an infield position and leadoff. How much do you think he costs?

 

Luckily. Less than he should given the lack of power. He'll be 29 next season...probably minimum 4 year deal. His agent will probably look at the Chapman extention as a benchmark, but he won't get that I don't think. Somewhere between a 4 and 6 year deal between 80-120 I think, and i might be high. Hard to peg those lower power, plus everything else guys.

[Brownie19]

Sounds great! Who do you suggest the Jays trade for him? I still bet the Mets value him highly and aren't giving him away for pennies.

 

Beats me. If the Mets still view him as a top prospect, I'd move on to another target.

[Laika]

Kim will want a nine figure contract

[Jimcanuck]

Yeah - I agree with that. Hopefully they can get creative. Trade for Brett Baty.

 

I like Noelvi as a target

[BatFlip]

Like Bo faking injury? lol...

 

Trust no one.

[John_Havok]

Actually, now that Ive looked into Kim a bit more... career-wise he's basically Clement but walks 3 times more and strikes out 1.5 times as much. Better D from Kim overall but this year its about a wash, if Clement can be this good defensively going forward.... Kim is pretty redundant.

[Brownie19]

How much will Adames cost and how much cheaper would Kim be?

 

Adames had a MONSTER season at the perfect time. Same age as Kim. He's a better fit, given his power profile. I could see Kim getting like 4-5 years at $20M AAV. I think Adames has played himself into a 6 year deal at $22M-$25M AAV.

[Laika]

Nice to see the Rays get burned finally by trading an early arb player they thought would get worse.

[glory]

Actually, now that Ive looked into Kim a bit more... career-wise he's basically Clement but walks 3 times more and strikes out 1.5 times as much. Better D from Kim overall but this year its about a wash, if Clement can be this good defensively going forward.... Kim is pretty redundant.

 

I wouldn't go that far in saying Kim would be redundant because of Clement. Over the past 3 seasons, Kim has consistently been a slightly above average bat without any major swings in xwOBA, and he's great defensively and on the bases. Clement's offensive profile doesn't seem all that appealing, especially the low walk rate. As a utility player he's fine, but nothing beyond that. Kim is a legitimate MLB starter with 3-4 WAR potential. I would prefer the Jays target a power bat if they spend big in free agency, but Kim at 3B would make the team better, if not significantly so. He would also allow them to trade Bo or at least make it easier to move on from him after 2025.

 

As far as what he'd command, I think he's more a 5/80 or 5/85 player rather than someone who gets 9 figures, but who knows. Having to outbid AJ Preller is probably going to be difficult, and Kim fits the Dodgers perfectly as well.

[Terminator]

I wouldn't go that far in saying Kim would be redundant because of Clement. Over the past 3 seasons, Kim has consistently been a slightly above average bat without any major swings in xwOBA, and he's great defensively and on the bases. Clement's offensive profile doesn't seem all that appealing, especially the low walk rate. As a utility player he's fine, but nothing beyond that. Kim is a legitimate MLB starter with 3-4 WAR potential. I would prefer the Jays target a power bat if they spend big in free agency, but Kim at 3B would make the team better, if not significantly so. He would also allow them to trade Bo or at least make it easier to move on from him after 2025.

 

As far as what he'd command, I think he's more a 5/80 or 5/85 player rather than someone who gets 9 figures, but who knows. Having to outbid AJ Preller is probably going to be difficult, and Kim fits the Dodgers perfectly as well.

 

Well said. I agree on the contract, it's tough to say what he'll get. Defense first profile often get paid less than you think. Kind of hard to imagine anything beyond 5 for 100 but it's possible.

[Laika]

Well said. I agree on the contract, it's tough to say what he'll get. Defense first profile often get paid less than you think. Kind of hard to imagine anything beyond 5 for 100 but it's possible.

 

Yes but then Chatt Mapman gets $151M at 32 years old

[Orgfiller]

Nice to see the Rays get burned finally by trading an early arb player they thought would get worse.

 

I don't think this is why they moved Adames away. Apparently he had well documented issues with the batting eye at the Trop, so he literally just couldn't hit at home. His road vs home splits were major,

 

From 2019 to 2021 Home vs Away wRC+:

56 vs. 137

64 vs 173

100 vs 137 (was traded early in the season to Milwaukee)

 

Since then he's consistently been better at home than on the road. The initial road numbers were probably unsustainable, but he was basically going through a Coors hangover effect in reverse.

 

They pretty much had no choice but to move him. Here's a fangraphs article on the matter: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/willy-adames-can-see-clearly-now/

 

Edit: it wasn’t exactly the batter’s eye, but apparently some lights that they changed heading into the 2019 season where he started being awful at home

[Laika]

I don't think this is why they moved Adames away. Apparently he had well documented issues with the batting eye at the Trop, so he literally just couldn't hit at home. His road vs home splits were major,

 

From 2019 to 2021 Home vs Away wRC+:

56 vs. 137

64 vs 173

100 vs 137 (was traded early in the season to Milwaukee)

 

Since then he's consistently been better at home than on the road. The initial road numbers were probably unsustainable, but he was basically going through a Coors hangover effect in reverse.

 

They pretty much had no choice but to move him. Here's a fangraphs article on the matter: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/willy-adames-can-see-clearly-now/

 

Edit: it wasn’t exactly the batter’s eye, but apparently some lights that they changed heading into the 2019 season where he started being awful at home

 

They also had WANDER FRANCO coming lol

[G-Snarls]

They also had WANDER FRANCO coming lol

 

 

Wander-Wander Franco?

[G-Snarls]

The way this season has unfolded it would feel like the ultimate nut punch for the Blue Jays to completely lose the lottery and drop to 10th overall.

 

No. I now have myself convinced that we will somehow nab Ethan Holliday or Jace LaViolette due to baseball karma or something. Should I start preparing for disappointment now?

[Terminator]

Swanson might be back. In his last 14 appearances (12 IP) dating back to August 23rd:

 

12.0 K/9

2.25 BB/9

1.50 ERA

2.33 FIP

 

Was a possible non-tender candidate but I think it's an easy decision to bring him back now. Could be huge for the '25 bullpen.

[Spanky99]

Swanson might be back. In his last 14 appearances (12 IP) dating back to August 23rd:

 

12.0 K/9

2.25 BB/9

1.50 ERA

2.33 FIP

 

Was a possible non-tender candidate but I think it's an easy decision to bring him back now. Could be huge for the '25 bullpen.

 

Yup, been saying it for awhile now.

[Laika]

Swanson might be back. In his last 14 appearances (12 IP) dating back to August 23rd:

 

12.0 K/9

2.25 BB/9

1.50 ERA

2.33 FIP

 

Was a possible non-tender candidate but I think it's an easy decision to bring him back now. Could be huge for the '25 bullpen.

 

what changed though?

 

look under the hood

[Spanky99]

what changed though?

 

look under the hood

 

BABIP, HR/9

Edited September 26, 2024 by Spanky99

[Laika]

Fine, I'll do it

 

He turned his already good splitter into a nuke. 165 Stuff+ since August 23rd. It was 132 before then.

This made his overall Stuff+ go up of course. It has been 113 since August 23rd. It was 100 before then.

Fastball slightly better (see below). 85 Stuff+ since August 23rd. 78 Stuff+ fastball before then.

His velo is up. 94.4mph on the FB since August 23rd. It was 93.7mph before then.

He improved his command. 108 Location+ since August 23rd. It was 94 before then. (this is an insane jump, like going from minus minus command to being George Kirby)

 

The splitter is the most interesting thing. It has been good his whole career and oscillated between 128 and 110 stuff+ but this stretch has been nuts.

 

Pitch mix until Aug 22nd

49.2% - 31.1% - 19.7% --- FB/Split/SL

Pitch mix after Aug 22nd

52.6% - 28.9% - 18.4% (so, not much different... was kind of expecting to see less FB more Split)

 

Better in every way. Erik "tender me, baby" Swanson, ladies.

[G-Snarls]

what changed though?

 

look under the hood

 

BABIP, HR/9

 

[Spanky99]

Fine, I'll do it

 

He turned his already good splitter into a nuke. 165 Stuff+ since August 23rd. It was 132 before then.

This made his overall Stuff+ go up of course. It has been 113 since August 23rd. It was 100 before then.

Fastball slightly better (see below). 85 Stuff+ since August 23rd. 78 Stuff+ fastball before then.

His velo is up. 94.4mph on the FB since August 23rd. It was 93.7mph before then.

He improved his command. 108 Location+ since August 23rd. It was 94 before then. (this is an insane jump, like going from minus minus command to being George Kirby)

 

The splitter is the most interesting thing. It has been good his whole career and oscillated between 128 and 110 stuff+ but this stretch has been nuts.

 

Pitch mix until Aug 22nd

49.2% - 31.1% - 19.7% --- FB/Split/SL

Pitch mix after Aug 22nd

52.6% - 28.9% - 18.4% (so, not much different... was kind of expecting to see less FB more Split)

 

Better in every way. Erik "tender me, baby" Swanson, ladies.

 

Sweet info.