General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Omar]

The Jays definitely thought they would complete for WC3. Come on.

[G-Snarls]

Breaking: Joey Votto is alive

[Jays24]

Breaking: Joey Votto is alive

 

Ill check back tomorrow lol

[G-Snarls]

Ill check back tomorrow lol

 

Lol exactly

 

Played a game today might have broken another body part

[Stangstag]

We will never know the full details of contract negotiations. But there has been multiple reports to come out in the last couple years including recently that both sides haven't even been close in numbers. If they weren't in the 200 million dollar extension range for Bo in the off-season they certainly won't be now. And Bo is not going to sign a lesser number now because he's had a bad first half of the Season. Jays can't operate like the Dodgers and Yankees. Even if they have the money they don't have the pull or the allure. It has burned the Jays several times in this regime alone not trading players at max value. Josh Donaldson being the most notable one. I posted in the off-season if they weren't going to extend Bo to the kind of money he was likely to command they should trade him now. Now he's having a down season and the Jays are s***. They have zero leverage.

 

To your last point I don't see any evidence to suggest they were thinking they were contending in 2024. I feel they were stuck with the roster they had because it was massively overpaid and they couldn't do much more than hope they would sneak into a wildcard spot.

 

This is dumb, of course they were trying to contend in 2024 and they should have. The roster was solid. And Bo should have been a valuable trade piece (and might still be) at the deadline in a worst-case-scenario which this season has been so far.

[Stangstag]

Bo’s season is like quite literally the worst case scenario for a healthy Bichette. I’m sure the thought process was well even if we suck we can still move him in July but here we are

 

Yeah this. A typical 120ish wRC Bo right now would probably have fetched more at the deadline vs last offseason. Deadline deals are always overpays, always better to make trades then.

[BigCecil]

Berrios quietly trending worse than 2022 this year. FIP of 5.05 with his K rate down 2/9. xERA of 4.50. Stuff is no bueno. He is still eating a lot of innings and with the price of pitching prior to last free agency off season $19M AAV is not horrible. But his value is diminished.

[glory]

Berrios quietly trending worse than 2022 this year. FIP of 5.05 with his K rate down 2/9. xERA of 4.50. Stuff is no bueno. He is still eating a lot of innings and with the price of pitching prior to last free agency off season $19M AAV is not horrible. But his value is diminished.

 

His AAV over the next 2 seasons for what he is won’t be awful but those player options in 2027-28 are going to be really bad ($24m per with incentives tied to innings which is the one thing he does well so it’s only going to up).

 

If Atkins is fired and someone like Click takes over, then I could definitely see Berrios being shopped in the winter. Whether he’d have any market at all with that contract is the question.

[jaysblue]

Berrios quietly trending worse than 2022 this year. FIP of 5.05 with his K rate down 2/9. xERA of 4.50. Stuff is no bueno. He is still eating a lot of innings and with the price of pitching prior to last free agency off season $19M AAV is not horrible. But his value is diminished.

 

He's still providing innings which is a plus and has proven to be durable. Would try to unload his contract however if possible. After 2025/2026, looks like he could be an albatross.

[BigCecil]

His AAV over the next 2 seasons for what he is won’t be awful but those player options in 2027-28 are going to be really bad ($24m per with incentives tied to innings which is the one thing he does well so it’s only going to up).

 

If Atkins is fired and someone like Click takes over, then I could definitely see Berrios being shopped in the winter. Whether he’d have any market at all with that contract is the question.

 

Yep. He can opt out after 2026. The way he is pitching no chance that happens. FA deals are great to augment a roster to put it over the top in a window, but there is no value substitute for a solid drafting and development record. Guaranteed a lot of casuals still think he is an “ace” so Rogers might keep him around.

[Laika]

Jose Berrios

Stuff+ from 2020 through 2024

 

Fastball

101, 88, 83, 96, 82

Sinker

120, 104, 92, 92, 86

Curveball

155, 130, 115, 116, 107

 

Overall

121, 108, 95, 100, 92

 

 

uhhhhhhhhhh what is going on bros

 

his velo is barely down or not down at all in that span. he is only 30.

 

hello, Pete Walker?

 

TJS incoming or something?

[MikeM3]

He's not improving at the same rate as the league so he's falling behind.

 

Like I said, this guy's the one we gotta dump asap

[BigCecil]

On the one hand, the track record of IL history is one good indicator of future health. In Berrios's case he has had a rubber arm.

 

On the other hand Berrios is 30 now with 1325 IP.

 

You would have to think over time the IP might take a toll on his stuff?

 

They would be wise to move him given the trend.

[Laika]

On the one hand, the track record of IL history is one good indicator of future health. In Berrios's case he has had a rubber arm.

 

On the other hand Berrios is 30 now with 1325 IP.

 

You would have to think over time the IP might take a toll on his stuff?

 

They would be wise to move him given the trend.

 

But this is all level 1 public information

 

Who is going to take on that contract for a guy who is running on stuff fumes and surviving mostly on good command?

[Omar]

Jose Berrios

Stuff+ from 2020 through 2024

 

Fastball

101, 88, 83, 96, 82

Sinker

120, 104, 92, 92, 86

Curveball

155, 130, 115, 116, 107

 

Overall

121, 108, 95, 100, 92

 

 

uhhhhhhhhhh what is going on bros

 

his velo is barely down or not down at all in that span. he is only 30.

 

hello, Pete Walker?

 

TJS incoming or something?

 

What if the rest of baseball got better and he stayed the same relatively speaking?

[Laika]

What if the rest of baseball got better and he stayed the same relatively speaking?

 

That could be part of the explanation for sure. His movement profiles and velo look mostly the same between 2020 and now.

 

But we know league-wide velo is up in the last 5 years. This chart is MLB avg fastball velo by year and inning. Can see that in 2020 his FB would have been a tick above avg and now it is a tick below.

 

[Omar]

That could be part of the explanation for sure. His movement profiles and velo look mostly the same between 2020 and now.

 

But we know league-wide velo is up in the last 5 years. This chart is MLB avg fastball velo by year and inning. Can see that in 2020 his FB would have been a tick above avg and now it is a tick below.

 

 

Did you have a chance to run an analysis on Berrios Pitching+ (or just location+) and see if it correlates to his stuff+ decline over the past five seasons? Would be interesting to see. Sorry I don't have access right now but if you get a chance it would be appreciated.

[BigCecil]

But this is all level 1 public information

 

Who is going to take on that contract for a guy who is running on stuff fumes and surviving mostly on good command?

 

I know. Sucker GM born in every minute? Easier to move than say a Springer deal but it’s a small relative problem now that will only metastasize.

[Laika]

Did you have a chance to run an analysis on Berrios Pitching+ (or just location+) and see if it correlates to his stuff+ decline over the past five seasons? Would be interesting to see. Sorry I don't have access right now but if you get a chance it would be appreciated.

 

His Location+ is pretty consistent, 102 to 104 every single year. Basically one full standard deviation above the mean i.e. plus command.

[Stangstag]

But this is all level 1 public information

 

Who is going to take on that contract for a guy who is running on stuff fumes and surviving mostly on good command?

 

The Angels

[jaysblue]

But this is all level 1 public information

 

Who is going to take on that contract for a guy who is running on stuff fumes and surviving mostly on good command?

 

A team desperate for starting pitching at the deadline.

 

The question is which contending team could best use him and ignore some of his underlying issues?

[jaysblue]

The Angels

 

The Padres haha.

[G-Snarls]

Breaking: Joey Votto is alive

 

Ill check back tomorrow lol

 

Votto played 1B and went 3-4 with 1 K for Dunedin then got pinch hit for

[Jays24]

Votto 3-4 with 1 K for Dunedin then got pinch hit for

 

I've seen enough, time for Vladdy to play 3B to squeeze Votto into the lineups.

[The_DH]

What situation would be better:

1. Votto at 1b, Vladdy at 3b, Turner at DH, Clement/Barger/IKF at bench

2. Votto at DH, Vladdy at 1b, Turner at bench, Clement/Barger/IKF at 3b

3. Votto at bench (spot start), Vladdy at 1b, Turner at DH (spot start), Clement/Barger/IKF at 3b

 

I'm thinking option 3 makes the most sense.

[Laika]

What situation would be better:

1. Votto at 1b, Vladdy at 3b, Turner at DH, Clement/Barger/IKF at bench

2. Votto at DH, Vladdy at 1b, Turner at bench, Clement/Barger/IKF at 3b

3. Votto at bench (spot start), Vladdy at 1b, Turner at DH (spot start), Clement/Barger/IKF at 3b

 

I'm thinking option 3 makes the most sense.

 

#4 - Votto.... not on the team lol.

 

If he is on the team he should be in a DH platoon with Turner, nothing more.

[Abomination]

I've seen enough, time for Vladdy to play 3B to squeeze Votto into the lineups.

 

How crazy would it be to finish the year with Vladdy at 3rd, Horwitz at 2nd, and Votto at 1st? No one would have seen that coming!

[The_DH]

If Votto can still produce, I'd keep him at platoon DH, backup 1b. The big "IF" is if he can still produce. I'd start cutting Turner's time and consider trading him for a lottery pick along with KK. Our minor league system has never been so empty.

I never liked the idea of Vogelbach, he couldn't do anything besides the odd poke.

[wilko]

If Votto makes the team I want him playing everyday until he blows up.

[BigCecil]

The FO(next) should test Varsho's market value. Total of 3.7 WAR in 1.5 seasons for us. Current 92 wRC+ & 95 for career through 2000 PAs.

 

96-99% of MLB hit the ball harder on average, and have a better expected wOBA in '25.

 

K% up BB% up in '25. MAX EV 108.

 

28 and getting more expensive. $6M AAV in '24. Under control '25 and '26. FA in '27

 

If another GM has a run prevention focus fever dream, he could be useful to them.

 

Alternatively, if no blow the socks off offers, stick him in CF full time and let him run into 20 HRs and play elite D. He is an emotional fan & board fav, so stick around for retool to add stability and put people in seats and eyeballs on the TV screens.