General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Brownie19]

Varsho is leading the majors in DRS, one behind Semien in OAA

 

24th in baseball in offensive WAR

[jaysblue]

If the rotation can stay healthy they should be a mid to high 80 win team and you would hope they can acquire a bat or 2 at the deadline. But the rotation depth has evaporated pretty quickly from what it looked like heading into the season.

 

I’m interested to see if the ball starts carrying more at Roger’s centre when the roof is open because so far balls are just dying in the outfield.

 

Agree with everything you said.

 

If the rotation stays healthy and performs as last season, the Jays are still a mid-to-high 80 team. The hope is this front office actually goes out at the trade deadline and addresses the lineup if it still is a problem come June/July. Can't waste another season with how good this pitching staff has been.

 

Rotation depth has evaporated quickly from the beginning of the season like you said, but some posters on here take the blue pill so they won't acknowledge that. Yariel Rodríguez was called up just last week to take the last spot in the rotation, Tiedemann is on the IL now, Manoah looks like a mess still, and White is gone. Bowden Francis and Paolo Espino look like they would be next in line, with maybe someone like Adam Macko in the wings.

 

Hopefully when the roof is open, we start seeing the ball carrying more at the Roger's Centre. Gotta get some bats going, especially at home!

[Spanky99]

Varsho is leading the majors in DRS, one behind Semien in OAA

 

He crushed it last year in DRS also.

[MikeM3]

Varsho is the core.

[Spanky99]

Agree with everything you said.

 

If the rotation stays healthy and performs as last season, the Jays are still a mid-to-high 80 team. The hope is this front office actually goes out at the trade deadline and addresses the lineup if it still is a problem come June/July. Can't waste another season with how good this pitching staff has been.

 

Rotation depth has evaporated quickly from the beginning of the season like you said, but some posters on here take the blue pill so they won't acknowledge that. Yariel Rodríguez was called up just last week to take the last spot in the rotation, Tiedemann is on the IL now, Manoah looks like a mess still, and White is gone. Bowden Francis and Paolo Espino look like they would be next in line, with maybe someone like Adam Macko in the wings.

 

Hopefully when the roof is open, we start seeing the ball carrying more at the Roger's Centre. Gotta get some bats going, especially at home!

 

[Laika]

The Daulton Varsho window

[burlingtonbandit]

Varsho even looks better on defence this season. Let’s see if he can carry forward some of the success with the bat and show it just isn’t a hot streak. Even if he still comes in around a 100wRC+ guy the defence and baserunning should be enough to make him a 3+ win player.

[burlingtonbandit]

Agree with everything you said.

 

If the rotation stays healthy and performs as last season, the Jays are still a mid-to-high 80 team. The hope is this front office actually goes out at the trade deadline and addresses the lineup if it still is a problem come June/July. Can't waste another season with how good this pitching staff has been.

 

Rotation depth has evaporated quickly from the beginning of the season like you said, but some posters on here take the blue pill so they won't acknowledge that. Yariel Rodríguez was called up just last week to take the last spot in the rotation, Tiedemann is on the IL now, Manoah looks like a mess still, and White is gone. Bowden Francis and Paolo Espino look like they would be next in line, with maybe someone like Adam Macko in the wings.

 

Hopefully when the roof is open, we start seeing the ball carrying more at the Roger's Centre. Gotta get some bats going, especially at home!

 

I would have to think they would go and get help at the deadline, they’ve got a ton of these 1-2 win type players/prospects on the cusp that they’ll need to make a decision on anyways. May as well parlay that into an impact bat.

 

Good news is most of the rotation has a history of health but it is pitching so you never know. Better to have the number 6-9 guys suck/get injured than the top 4 guys.

 

Vladdy looks to be a middle of the order bat so far which is one of the best things that could have happened. He might always underperform the quality of contact type metrics but from what I’ve seen in comfortable pegging him as a 130-140wRC+ type. Turner has been all anyone could have asked for and Bo should rebound. Springer and Kirk have looked more like last year than anything else, at least Jansen is back and healthy.

 

The AL East looks like a bloodbath again this year, so I feel like a lot is going to come down to the inter-division games.

[BigCecil]

Varsho is as scorching hot now as Chappy was last April.

[DigitalRock]

This team has pitching and defense , they need to consistently hit. Playing well so far hope they keep it up it’s a long season

[Jays24]

I absolutely love this teams pitching and defense but it would be pretty hypocritical of some who have laughed at other teams run differential in the past while ignoring ours at the moment. It's a clear indicator of what most of have feared and is similar to last year... we only win games that our pitching and defense carries us to.

 

We need to start seeing some games where the offense carries us or it could be the same story come the playoffs again. We will be forced to go against another teams ace in the postseason so pitching advantages will pretty much be cancelled out for the most part. At that point, it'll come down to which batting lineup and bullpen can outdo the others.

 

In the end, I'm trying to say that particular advantages in the regular season such as who your number 4 and 5 starters are don't mean much in the playoffs. They will definitely help get you to the playoffs, which is very important, but other aspects of your roster are put into focus in the playoffs so can they step up when it matters?

[Masterbather]

I absolutely love this teams pitching and defense but it would be pretty hypocritical of some who have laughed at other teams run differential in the past while ignoring ours at the moment. It's a clear indicator of what most of have feared and is similar to last year... we only win games that our pitching and defense carries us to.

 

We need to start seeing some games where the offense carries us or it could be the same story come the playoffs again. We will be forced to go against another teams ace in the postseason so pitching advantages will pretty much be cancelled out for the most part. At that point, it'll come down to which batting lineup and bullpen can outdo the others.

 

In the end, I'm trying to say that particular advantages in the regular season such as who your number 4 and 5 starters are don't mean much in the playoffs. They will definitely help get you to the playoffs, which is very important, but other aspects of your roster are put into focus in the playoffs so can they step up when it matters?

 

Well said, this is what I try to explain to people, especially last year. Pitching depth in the rotation and the bullpen is great in the regular season but in the postseason your front three and back four in the bullpen will primarily determine your success, and when you match up against the other playoff teams a lot of the pitching advantage disappears completely because even if you're 4 and 5 are better, even if you're five six and seven in the bullpen are better, it really doesn't matter much.

 

Trying to win with just pitching and defense won't get it done unless you have multiple aces in your rotation and at least a couple of elite arms in the pen. We don't have this.

[Laika]

The Jays do have front end pitching though, and good relievers.

 

They just don't have any hitters who can hit jacks reliably off really good opposition pitchers. Sigh. Vlad and Bo are sadly so easy to pitch to these days. Broken swing and a pool noodle hacker.

[Jays24]

The Jays do have front end pitching though, and good relievers.

 

They just don't have any hitters who can hit jacks reliably off really good opposition pitchers. Sigh. Vlad and Bo are sadly so easy to pitch to these days. Broken swing and a pool noodle hacker.

 

That's exactly the point. Our starting pitching and this year's bullpen can MATCH other playoff teams. The difference maker will be the offense and whatever we've seen over the past year plus isn't going to get it done.

 

Not even trying to be a negative person here but just trying to state areas I hope we can be proactive in at the deadline since we didn't get it done during the offseason. The Jays will ultimately be judged by how we perform in the playoffs, assuming we get there.

 

Now I will say that I hope Garcia can keep up his performance because we haven't that this type of super shut down reliever in a while and it adds a key dynamic that's needed in the playoffs.

[burlingtonbandit]

I don't think anyone actually believes this lineup is good enough to match up with other playoff teams. The best outcome is they pitch/play defense well enough to make the postseason and then get lucky and win a couple games. Luck definitely plays a part in postseason success so at least the Jays would have a chance.

 

When pitching is tough the most efficient way to score runs is via the HR and the jays offence just doesn't have much power.

[max silver]

Varsho even looks better on defence this season. Let’s see if he can carry forward some of the success with the bat and show it just isn’t a hot streak. Even if he still comes in around a 100wRC+ guy the defence and baserunning should be enough to make him a 3+ win player.

 

Varsho was nearly a 5 win player in 2022 while splitting time in right field and center field while running essentially a league average bat. I think he will likely come in around that mark again if he manages a 100 wRC+ for the season based on the massive step forward he's taken defensively in left field.

[burlingtonbandit]

Varsho was nearly a 5 win player in 2022 while splitting time in right field and center field while running essentially a league average bat. I think he will likely come in around that mark again if he manages a 100 wRC+ for the season based on the massive step forward he's taken defensively in left field.

 

I'll take the under on 5 Wins. Yeah he's been great defensively so far but its a long season and I feel like it would be tough to maintain this level of defensive performance. Guys get banged up with the grind of the season, plus crashing into walls/playing on turf takes a toll on the body.

 

He's been incredible so far but he's not going to play a +5OAA/+8 DRS per 150 inning pace the whole season lol. His underlying offensive numbers make him more look like the hitter he's been his entire career thus far.

[max silver]

Varsho's 4.8 win season in 2022 was largely based on defensive excellence. He produced 10 OAA in right field in 541 innings that season, and 8 OAA in 378 innings in center field. Up to this point he's produced 5 OAA in left field in 112 innings, and 1 OAA in 44 innings in center field. He's trending similarly in center field at this point as he's put up 1 OAA in 44 innings, which would put him on track for 9-10 OAA if he plays a similar 400-450 innings in center field which would align with what he's done the last 2 seasons. He has already put up 3 more OAA this season in left field compared to all of the 2023 season, and is on track for an astonishing 36 OAA assuming a similar playing time split to his 2023 numbers.

[burlingtonbandit]

Varsho's 4.8 win season in 2022 was largely based on defensive excellence. He produced 10 OAA in right field in 541 innings that season, and 8 OAA in 378 innings in center field. Up to this point he's produced 5 OAA in left field in 112 innings, and 1 OAA in 44 innings in center field. He's trending similarly in center field at this point as he's put up 1 OAA in 44 innings, which would put him on track for 9-10 OAA if he plays a similar 400-450 innings in center field which would align with what he's done the last 2 seasons. He has already put up 3 more OAA this season in left field compared to all of the 2023 season, and is on track for an astonishing 36 OAA assuming a similar playing time split to his 2023 numbers.

 

Don't think anyone is saying Varsho isn't a great defender. I'll still take the under on him being a 4.5 Win player as well as putting up 30 OAA let alone 36. Its a long season and you can't just extrapolate his defensive numbers that he's put up so far. There's luck in even getting the chances to make certain defensive plays.

 

Kiermaier is one of the best defensive CF ever and the most OAA he ever put up was 18.

[thatoneguy]

Getting real tired of Vlad and Bo both looking like absolute pumpkins at the plate. If either one of them is even putting up average performances offensively, we probably have at least 2 more wins on the season.

[Keithpowell]

Let's trade Vladdy and even Calvin biggio too and bring in someone good

[Keithpowell]

And maybe we think about trading bo bichette too middle of season

[Masterbather]

Getting real tired of Vlad and Bo both looking like absolute pumpkins at the plate. If either one of them is even putting up average performances offensively, we probably have at least 2 more wins on the season.

Bo has consistently shown his value over the years, while I still think he holds himself back with his approach, I give him a lot of runway.

 

Vladdy on the other hand can f*** right off.

[G-Snarls]

This team has pitching and defense , they need to consistently hit. Playing well so far hope they keep it up it’s a long season

 

Even just Bo and the catchers regressing to career norms would sure help

[MikeM3]

Bo's athletic peak is already gone. Should have dealt him this offseason

[Laika]

Bo's athletic peak is already gone. Should have dealt him this offseason

 

Bo is going to have a come to Jesus moment post-Toronto, realize his wannabe skill set as a single slapping shortstop just doesn't line up with his tools, and he will become a 35 HR third baseman somewhere else.

[Laika]

Just drives me f***ing crazy how the top of the order refuses or can't pull the ball in the air

 

Ernie Clement with his size 28 waist pulled a homer at 99mph today.

[BigCecil]

Bo's start. 0 WAR. 6th percentile range @ SS. For some reason his sprint speed is way up in '24.

 

He will get the bat going but signing him long term paying any premium for him as a SS makes no sense to me.

Edited April 22, 2024 by BigCecil

[Laika]

Jays are 30th in barrel rate.

 

One of the only major league teams that hates barrels.

 

If Davis Schneider didn't exist they would have basically no hitters that chase barrels. Jansen does so thank God he's back. I guess Varsho does too he just hasn't been good at it most of the time.

[burlingtonbandit]

Jays are 30th in barrel rate.

 

One of the only major league teams that hates barrels.

 

If Davis Schneider didn't exist they would have basically no hitters that chase barrels. Jansen does so thank God he's back. I guess Varsho does too he just hasn't been good at it most of the time.

 

Tons of swings early in the count too which adds to the frustration. They’ve had good pitches to hit and just miss them, same story as last season.