General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[mphenhef]

I can't help but feel like there is still an issue with advanced scouting or preparation with this team. It just feels like too often a guy they should perform very well against locks them up, especially when it is a young pitcher (of all qualities) that they haven't seen before. We've seen it last year (and for the most part this year in a SSS) where the first time through the order our batters struggle. Last night they looked absolutely lost up there like they had no clue this guy had a changeup. Yes, it was new from last year but he threw it in spring. Advanced scouts should be watching Astros fifth starter candidate spring starts given the early schedule I would think?

 

Maybe these players are too stubborn to listen but I doubt that is the case team wide.

[Laika]

Jays offense is off to a worst case scenario start.

 

- Springer, hitting .167

- Vlad, looks confused all the time

- Varsho, sucks

- Biggio, 33% k rate and one lucky homer

- Kirk, zero pop

- KK, sucks

- IKF, nothing bat and offers the least intimidating at bats imagineable. oh noooo he might hit a 85 mph soft liner oh noooo

- Bichette, hurt, sucked in his limited chances

- Clement and Schendier, not even starting

- Votto, has now missed like 3 weeks with a rolled ankle?

 

78 wRC+ as a team

And they have faced ZACH LITTELL, RONEL BLANCO, TYLER ALEXANDER, AARON CIVALE, and ZACH EFLIN

 

NOT EXACTLY A LINE OF ACES

[burlingtonbandit]

Worst part about the lineup is they get down 3-0 early and it feels like its its a 7 run lead. Last year was the same thing, its like their approach just goes through the window and mentally they are weak and give up. I remember those 15/16 teams and you just had the confidence at any time those guys could put up a 5 spot in an inning. Even before the big trades in 15 that team was "in" almost every game. Donaldson, Bautista, Martin just had that swagger/confidence/Prescence at the plate that I feel this team lacks.

[Laika]

Worst part about the lineup is they get down 3-0 early and it feels like its its a 7 run lead. Last year was the same thing, its like their approach just goes through the window and mentally they are weak and give up. I remember those 15/16 teams and you just had the confidence at any time those guys could put up a 5 spot in an inning. Even before the big trades in 15 that team was "in" almost every game. Donaldson, Bautista, Martin just had that swagger/confidence/Prescence at the plate that I feel this team lacks.

 

At their peak, Bautista, EE, and Donaldson were elite, 150+ wRC+ hitters.

 

Jays under Atkins and Shapiro have had exactly one such season from a hitter, 2021 Vlad of course.

 

The feelings around the teams are almost entirely about that core. The rest of the playoff lineups were not as interesting. Tulo, Pillar, Goins, Smoak, Russell, Travis, Zeke, Barney, Saunders, Reyes, Revere... these guys were just along for the ride on offense.

[Spanky99]

New unofficial but official board rules:

 

1. polluting any thread with personal attacks = a ban, especially if they are barbed insults that relate to someone on a personal level (their income, race, etc.)

2. every time someone complains about Spanky, Spanky gets another get out of jail free card. and they stack.

3. rule #1 does not apply if you are making fun of connorp. he is fair game.

 

Reminder that the mods are under no obligation to be perfect or even impartial.

 

lol...

[Laika]

It just all comes back to your core players.

 

You can say what you want about the bottom of the lineup, or the IKF/KK signings, or Varsho not being a threat, but at the end of the day the offense is not scary when Bo and Vlad can be pitched to so easily most of the time when it matters.

[Stangstag]

Worst part about the lineup is they get down 3-0 early and it feels like its its a 7 run lead. Last year was the same thing, its like their approach just goes through the window and mentally they are weak and give up. I remember those 15/16 teams and you just had the confidence at any time those guys could put up a 5 spot in an inning. Even before the big trades in 15 that team was "in" almost every game. Donaldson, Bautista, Martin just had that swagger/confidence/Prescence at the plate that I feel this team lacks.

 

Even the 21/22 teams, you felt like they could come back. They DID come back, quite a bit. And even when they lost, they usually made it close.

 

These 10-0 blowouts are embarrassing.

[The_DH]

Keep in mind, this team as constructed, is a slightly more than .500 team. Last year we had excellent health for the pitchers that was statistically unbelievable. It should regress a bit this year and the offense should be about the same or slightly lower than last year. IKF will provide good defense but not hit. 2/3 of the outfield is getting too old.

[burlingtonbandit]

At their peak, Bautista, EE, and Donaldson were elite, 150+ wRC+ hitters.

 

Jays under Atkins and Shapiro have had exactly one such season from a hitter, 2021 Vlad of course.

 

The feelings around the teams are almost entirely about that core. The rest of the playoff lineups were not as interesting. Tulo, Pillar, Goins, Smoak, Russell, Travis, Zeke, Barney, Saunders, Reyes, Revere... these guys were just along for the ride on offense.

 

Well yeah of course those guys at the top of the lineup were the driver. But I feel like in general the team just had more confidence/swagger back then, more mentally strong. Martin leading the team behind the plate was also a big part of those teams.

 

The last 2 years it just seems like if the team gets down early, there are a lot of terrible PA where it looks like guys have no plan at the plate.

[Terminator]

Jays offense is off to a worst case scenario start.

 

- Springer, hitting .167

- Vlad, looks confused all the time

- Varsho, sucks

- Biggio, 33% k rate and one lucky homer

- Kirk, zero pop

- KK, sucks

- IKF, nothing bat and offers the least intimidating at bats imagineable. oh noooo he might hit a 85 mph soft liner oh noooo

- Bichette, hurt, sucked in his limited chances

- Clement and Schendier, not even starting

- Votto, has now missed like 3 weeks with a rolled ankle?

 

78 wRC+ as a team

And they have faced ZACH LITTELL, RONEL BLANCO, TYLER ALEXANDER, AARON CIVALE, and ZACH EFLIN

 

NOT EXACTLY A LINE OF ACES

 

Well the good news is that it's 5 games lol

 

It's such a small sample size that it doesn't change the projections at all

 

One good game and you could basically throw all of this out

[Laika]

Well the good news is that it's 5 games lol

 

It's such a small sample size that it doesn't change the projections at all

 

One good game and you could basically throw all of this out

 

One good game

Then one bad game against Clarke Schmidt or something

Then no hit by Erick Fedde?

[burlingtonbandit]

Well the good news is that it's 5 games lol

 

It's such a small sample size that it doesn't change the projections at all

 

One good game and you could basically throw all of this out

 

The Jays only project to be like an 83 win team from FG though with less than 50% playoff odds. So I guess the question is are our expectations too high for this team?

[Terminator]

One good game

Then one bad game against Clarke Schmidt or something

Then no hit by Erick Fedde?

 

I was thinking more along the lines of 5 games not swaying anyone's thinking.

 

The Atkins haters can keep on hating and the qualified defenders (I don't think anyone is a full-throated supporter on here) can hold the line as well.

 

This is by far the most difficult portion of our schedule all season.

 

Go 4-6 or better and then come home and hopefully the park changes even things out and we see these guys hit their projections.

[Terminator]

The Jays only project to be like an 83 win team from FG though with less than 50% playoff odds. So I guess the question is are our expectations too high for this team?

 

Yeah but that's more of a product of the AL East being a beast. The Orioles barely project any better.

 

Even so, I do think it's a mark against Atkins that he has this big payroll but we only have a coin flip chance at the playoffs.

 

But still, this isn't some dreaded start like people would have you believe. We split a 4 game set at the Trop. Last year I think we went 3-11 versus the Rays.

[burlingtonbandit]

Yeah but that's more of a product of the AL East being a beast. The Orioles barely project any better.

 

Even so, I do think it's a mark against Atkins that he has this big payroll but we only have a coin flip chance at the playoffs.

 

But still, this isn't some dreaded start like people would have you believe. We split a 4 game set at the Trop. Last year I think we went 3-11 versus the Rays.

 

Well anytime you get no-hit its going to create a lot of negative attention, especially getting blown out 10-0. If the team had lost 6-3 last night the blowback wouldn't be anywhere close. People just want to see positive/encouraging signs and there hasn't been much on the offensive side of the ball.

[G-Snarls]

Jays offense is off to a worst case scenario start.

 

- Springer, hitting .167

- Vlad, looks confused all the time

- Varsho, sucks

- Biggio, 33% k rate and one lucky homer

- Kirk, zero pop

- KK, sucks

- IKF, nothing bat and offers the least intimidating at bats imagineable. oh noooo he might hit a 85 mph soft liner oh noooo

- Bichette, hurt, sucked in his limited chances

- Clement and Schendier, not even starting

- Votto, has now missed like 3 weeks with a rolled ankle?

 

78 wRC+ as a team

And they have faced ZACH LITTELL, RONEL BLANCO, TYLER ALEXANDER, AARON CIVALE, and ZACH EFLIN

 

NOT EXACTLY A LINE OF ACES

 

So how do they do against Framber Valdez tonight and Cristian Javier tomorrow?

[Laika]

So how do they do against Framber Valdez tonight?

 

no hitter

[wilko]

Just wait till Turner starts to heat up. That guy's an RBI machine!

[Krylian]

Just wait till Turner starts to heat up. That guy's an RBI machine!

 

How's his avridge?

[mphenhef]

How's his avridge?

 

Who cares? He has veteran presents.

[G-Snarls]

Who cares? He has veteran presents.

 

We don't need it anyway! Not when we have studly IKF leading the team in batting average@!

 

[Jays333]

Varsho is coming out strong HAHA

[wilko]

We don't need it anyway! Not when we have studly IKF leading the team in batting average@!

 

 

 

His D has been great at 3B though. How about that one and only K!

[G-Snarls]

His D has been great at 3B though. How about that one and only K!

 

The good D will continue

 

The low K rate will not...

[Brownie19]

Well anytime you get no-hit its going to create a lot of negative attention, especially getting blown out 10-0. If the team had lost 6-3 last night the blowback wouldn't be anywhere close. People just want to see positive/encouraging signs and there hasn't been much on the offensive side of the ball.

 

This is true. The average fan/poster has the emotional intelligence of a tampon.

[Olerud363]

Juan Soto in 5 games has almost as much fWAR as Vlad Guerrero Jr. did in 155 games last year.

 

The hilarious thing is because of the broken arb system Vlad Guerrero Jr. (0.5 WAR probably in 2024) will get the same arb salary that Soto (12 WAR probably) gets.

 

Vladdy .267 22 101 - 0.5 WAR - 30 million in arb

Soto .355 47 99 rbi - 11.2 WAR 30 million in arb (but 560 million in free agency)

 

My bet is the free market now way smarter than arb, Vlad to Soto arb ratio will be like 1 to 1... Soto to Vlad free agency ratio more like 10 to 1, Soto 560 10 year, Vlad 45 million 2 year.

[Olerud363]

This is true. The average fan/poster has the emotional intelligence of a tampon.

 

 

Average fan, especially myself has the political skill and perhaps emotional intelligence far below tampon. Poor losers and childish stupid rants that accomplish nothing while the elite posters post calmly and make millions on their day trades.

 

However, while the rants useless and childish I think they often do correlate with big swings in playoff probabilities and such. Like team has 70% chance of making playoffs, but have nightmare week and playoff chances reduced to 45% or something and fans go nuts.

 

Probably not yet, but by like April 20th, chances of winning division could be dramatically reduced. Like from 20% or whatever it was at beginning to 5%.

 

I think the last 2 years, because of average Jays starts, and historic NY Yankee/TBR starts, Jays like lost the chance of winning the division real quick... so that's probably what fans are sensing is happening again and ranting at.

[Spanky99]

This is true. The average fan/poster has the emotional intelligence of a tampon.

 

lol... good chuckle from that.

[wamco]

Juan Soto in 5 games has almost as much fWAR as Vlad Guerrero Jr. did in 155 games last year.

 

The hilarious thing is because of the broken arb system Vlad Guerrero Jr. (0.5 WAR probably in 2024) will get the same arb salary that Soto (12 WAR probably) gets.

 

Vladdy .267 22 101 - 0.5 WAR - 30 million in arb

Soto .355 47 99 rbi - 11.2 WAR 30 million in arb (but 560 million in free agency)

 

My bet is the free market now way smarter than arb, Vlad to Soto arb ratio will be like 1 to 1... Soto to Vlad free agency ratio more like 10 to 1, Soto 560 10 year, Vlad 45 million 2 year.

 

I’d hope if vlad has a .5 war this year and healthy, we would move on from the 25m or so projected arby price.

If it’s closer to 30, I’d want to see a 3war minimum this year

[Terminator]

This is true. The average fan/poster has the emotional intelligence of a tampon.

 

I'd say about half of the board's activity comes from childish rants from posters venting after a loss.

 

That never did it for me. In order to let off steam I always recommend getting s*** canned and starting a bar fight.