General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Carlos Danger]

Which comments are you referring to and from when?

 

I think it was the first press conference after the playoff loss. I think he said Chapman and Whit.. ICR. I took note because normally this FO was/is very, very calculating in every word they say, to the point of boring, especially Ross.

 

Of course, it was shortly thereafter that Ross threw the manager under the bus... So.......

[Spanky99]

Door B and the relievers become a revolving door but the first two are Hagen Danner and Pearson

 

Yeah, Pearson/Pop/Danner/Cooke/Zulueta/Fluharty/Brock/Juenger/Eisert/Burnette and then another handful of SP options available, plenty of depth. I doubt they get Chappy, but it would be sweet if they can swing it. Looks to me as this is our team going into '24 though.

[Spanky99]

It wasn't what he said about the budget. He literally said - Para phrasing, we are losing Chapman as in not coming back.

 

Now the market could have changed and Atkin/Shapiro could change their minds.

 

However, I am pretty sure that comment was because the Jay's FO knew what they offered Chapman, they had an idea what Boras would want and they didn't see great results from Chapman to even contemplate a larger offer.

 

This is all false, CD, he was a pending FA and said they'd attempt to reacquire him. They offered the guy over a 100M, stop listening to press conferences, they don't mean squat.

[John_Havok]

I think it was the first press conference after the playoff loss. I think he said Chapman and Whit.. ICR. I took note because normally this FO was/is very, very calculating in every word they say, to the point of boring, especially Ross.

 

Of course, it was shortly thereafter that Ross threw the manager under the bus... So.......

 

Oh that one, yeah that was Oct 7th. He said initially “The bulk of our team [is] essentially returning,” Atkins said. “We’ll miss Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier. We’ll see opportunities to work to fill those holes from within and externally. The bulk of our pitching returning, minus Hyun-Jin Ryu. Maybe a couple of others, Alek Manoah coming back into the fold, thought Hyun-Jin Ryu could also be an alternative for us.”

 

Then he said a few minutes later he was open to bringing back all three guys, one of which happened.

 

Then Nov 7th - Atkins says “absolutely remain interested” on a multi-year deal for Chapman. Atkins has had dialogue with both Chapman and his agent, Scott Boras, and said, “our engagement has been great.”

 

For context, the Atkins quote was after they had extended the qualifying offer but before the deadline to accept or reflect so the rejection that was clearly a formality had not happened yet.

 

Chapman hasn’t made any comments post season as you’d expect but before the end of the season, Chapman said he was “definitely open to coming back” and praised the organization for how they take care of players.

 

“They really care about (the) players, and there’s nothing that they wouldn’t do for you. So I have a lot of respect for everybody in this organization,” Chapman said.

 

That last bit was from a story in the Athletic on Nov 8th

[Carlos Danger]

Oh that one…he said initially “The bulk of our team [is] essentially returning,” Atkins said. “We’ll miss Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier. We’ll see opportunities to work to fill those holes from within and externally. The bulk of our pitching returning, minus Hyun-Jin Ryu. Maybe a couple of others, Alek Manoah coming back into the fold, thought Hyun-Jin Ryu could also be an alternative for us.”

 

Then he said a few minutes later he was open to bringing back all three guys, one of which happened.

 

I think KK was the outlier and not apples and apples to Chapman, and it was a case of Ross being too honest in error.

 

I am not the only one who thought a deeper meaning to it.

 

Blue Jays GM Atkins says three key players won’t be back

Colton Pankiw

|

Oct 7 2023, 10:37 am

 

 

Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

It was expected that several of the Toronto Blue Jays free agents wouldn’t be returning, but few thought we would have answers on their futures this quickly.

 

 

In what was an already heavily criticized season-ending press conference this morning, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins seemingly admitted that Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, and Kevin Kiermaier will not be returning for the 2024 season.

 

“The bulk of our team [is] essentially returning,” Atkins said. “We’ll miss Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier. We’ll see opportunities to work to fill those holes from within and externally. The bulk of our pitching returning, minus Hyun-Jin Ryu. Maybe a couple of others, Alek Manoah coming back into the fold, though Hyun-Jin Ryu could also be an alternative for us.”

 

 

Atkins did later on clarify that the Jays are open to bringing back all three, but many are taking this as an accidental slip-up on what the plans are moving forward. Based on this press conference, it feels highly unlikely that any of the three will be back. The same could apply for Ryu, who Atkins also seemed to suggest would not return before backtracking seconds later.

 

Chapman will likely command a salary too big to match for the Jays on the open market, while Belt has been honest about the fact he may choose to retire. As for Kiermaier, he recently expressed his desire to play on grass rather than artificial turf, which made his return seem less than likely. That said, none of the three ruled out a return, which makes today’s press conference all the more baffling.

 

Tensions are quite high among Blue Jays fans after what was another disappointing playoff exit, and what was said today only seems to be adding to that. Safe to say, there will be a ton of pressure on everyone in the organization heading into the 2024 season.

[John_Havok]

I think KK was the outlier and not apples and apples to Chapman, and it was a case of Ross being too honest in error.

 

I am not the only one who thought a deeper meaning to it.

 

Blue Jays GM Atkins says three key players won’t be back

Colton Pankiw

|

Oct 7 2023, 10:37 am

 

 

Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

It was expected that several of the Toronto Blue Jays free agents wouldn’t be returning, but few thought we would have answers on their futures this quickly.

 

 

In what was an already heavily criticized season-ending press conference this morning, Blue Jays general manager Ross Atkins seemingly admitted that Matt Chapman, Brandon Belt, and Kevin Kiermaier will not be returning for the 2024 season.

 

“The bulk of our team [is] essentially returning,” Atkins said. “We’ll miss Matt Chapman and Brandon Belt and Kevin Kiermaier. We’ll see opportunities to work to fill those holes from within and externally. The bulk of our pitching returning, minus Hyun-Jin Ryu. Maybe a couple of others, Alek Manoah coming back into the fold, though Hyun-Jin Ryu could also be an alternative for us.”

 

 

Atkins did later on clarify that the Jays are open to bringing back all three, but many are taking this as an accidental slip-up on what the plans are moving forward. Based on this press conference, it feels highly unlikely that any of the three will be back. The same could apply for Ryu, who Atkins also seemed to suggest would not return before backtracking seconds later.

 

Chapman will likely command a salary too big to match for the Jays on the open market, while Belt has been honest about the fact he may choose to retire. As for Kiermaier, he recently expressed his desire to play on grass rather than artificial turf, which made his return seem less than likely. That said, none of the three ruled out a return, which makes today’s press conference all the more baffling.

 

Tensions are quite high among Blue Jays fans after what was another disappointing playoff exit, and what was said today only seems to be adding to that. Safe to say, there will be a ton of pressure on everyone in the organization heading into the 2024 season.

 

What people infer from a statement is just that…an inference.

 

I concede the possibility exists that Atkins had and continues to have no intention of bringing back Chapman, because I’m not in his head. But either way he can’t state he’s not interested in any specific player since it’s against the CBA to do so.

[Carlos Danger]

What people infer from a statement is just that…an inference.

 

I concede the possibility exists that Atkins had and continues to have no intention of bringing back Chapman, because I’m not in his head. But either way he can’t state he’s not interested in any specific player since it’s against the CBA to do so.

 

I agree with the above. Hence, I believe he realized he made a slip and back tracked.

 

Atkins also said that in the context that they offered Chapman a $100M plus multi year deal and he rejected it, which would give the Jays a pretty good idea where their market vs Boras is /was already.

 

The caveat as other have said is if Chapman accepts a pillow contract. Other than that, I don't think Chapman is back on a multi year deal, unless Team opt outs in year 2, which is the same essentially as a one year deal.

[John_Havok]

I agree with the above. Hence, I believe he realized he made a slip and back tracked.

 

Atkins also said that in the context that they offered Chapman a $100M plus multi year deal and he rejected it, which would give the Jays a pretty good idea where their market vs Boras is /was already.

 

The caveat as other have said is if Chapman accepts a pillow contract. Other than that, I don't think Chapman is back on a multi year deal, unless Team opt outs in year 2, which is the same essentially as a one year deal.

 

Yeah, I think he’s looking at the same framework as Bellinger got, just with lower AAV. Me and Spanky hashed that out either in this thread or a different one yesterday.

[Spanky99]

I agree with the above. Hence, I believe he realized he made a slip and back tracked.

 

Atkins also said that in the context that they offered Chapman a $100M plus multi year deal and he rejected it, which would give the Jays a pretty good idea where their market vs Boras is /was already.

 

The caveat as other have said is if Chapman accepts a pillow contract. Other than that, I don't think Chapman is back on a multi year deal, unless Team opt outs in year 2, which is the same essentially as a one year deal.

 

No he didn't, that was reported by Heyman and co... Ross can't comment on negotiations, it's against the CBA. Also, I'm glad that Boras turned it down the fool. Hahaha! The latter remains to be seen, bro.

[Carlos Danger]

No he didn't, that was reported by Heyman and co... Ross can't comment on negotiations, it's against the CBA. Also, I'm glad that Boras turned it down the fool. Hahaha! The latter remains to be seen, bro.

 

I didn't say that Ross said they offered an extension. I said he made his slip that Chapman wasn't coming back in the context that the FO knew what they had already offered or discussed.

[BigCecil]

I may not agree with all of Atkins decisions but it was wise to not publicly state that he has money left whether true or not.

 

Ya, agree.

 

I just scratch my head sometimes. How did we end up with this size of payroll and the oldest line up & rotation in the AL East? Its not what I expected. Lets hope it works out.

[Laika]

Door B and the relievers become a revolving door but the first two are Hagen Danner and Pearson

 

The problem with trading all the depth guys

 

Is they probably have no value now that the FA context has shifted

 

Vets are signing for $1M... why would anybody want Biggio or Garcia or Richards at their salaries?

 

Dunno boys

[wamco]

You could be right there.

 

In that case you hold tight and hope aaa guys make an impact and save bullets for the deadline.

[G-Snarls]

As currently constructed this feels like the 3rd best team in the division, behind the Orioles and Yankees

 

...unless the Yankees get horrendous injuries again

or if multiple Jays bats outperform

[Spanky99]

As currently constructed this feels like the 3rd best team in the division, behind the Orioles and Yankees

 

...unless the Yankees get horrendous injuries again

or if multiple Jays bats outperform

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

[deanmike]

https://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=Standings

 

That projection has them missing the playoffs lol (best AL team to miss to be exact). Seems projected record on there is just based on projected run differential and Jays projected for the 6th best RD in the AL, but the AL Central winner projects for the 7th best RD in the AL so basically Fangraphs thinks Jays are missing the playoffs.

 

West: Astros +97

East: Yankees +79

Central: Twins +34

WC1: Rays +53

WC2: Mariners +43

WC3: Orioles +40

 

Jays +35

 

More optimistically, Fangraphs projected team WAR totals has the Jays as 2nd best in the division, 3rd best in the AL. So maybe that's the Fangraphs projection you optimists should cling to.

[Spanky99]

That projection has them missing the playoffs lol (best AL team to miss to be exact). Seems projected record on there is just based on projected run differential and Jays projected for the 6th best RD in the AL, but the AL Central winner projects for the 7th best RD in the AL so basically Fangraphs thinks Jays are missing the playoffs.

 

West: Astros +97

East: Yankees +79

Central: Twins +34

WC1: Rays +53

WC2: Mariners +43

WC3: Orioles +40

 

Jays +35

 

More optimistically, Fangraphs projected team WAR totals has the Jays as 2nd best in the division, 3rd best in the AL.

 

Thanks, tips.

[Stangstag]

That projection has them missing the playoffs lol (best AL team to miss to be exact). Seems projected record on there is just based on projected run differential and Jays projected for the 6th best RD in the AL, but the AL Central winner projects for the 7th best RD in the AL so basically Fangraphs thinks Jays are missing the playoffs.

 

West: Astros +97

East: Yankees +79

Central: Twins +34

WC1: Rays +53

WC2: Mariners +43

WC3: Orioles +40

 

Jays +35

 

More optimistically, Fangraphs projected team WAR totals has the Jays as 2nd best in the division, 3rd best in the AL. So maybe that's the Fangraphs projection you optimists should cling to.

 

Honestly, i’d rather be the underdog at this point than projected to win 100. This team doesn’t need the added pressure of being projected to win the division or be better than they are. They haven’t lived up to expectations in any given year.

 

Just play good ball, win enough games to make a WC spot.

[glory]

I doubt Atkins would trade Garcia/Richards given how obsessed he is with depth. It's more likely he lets Chapman sign elsewhere and he'll just stick with what they have.

 

Much like last season, they need a RHH 4th OF who can hit LHP. I can't imagine Robbie Grossman is turning down starting gigs elsewhere. He mashes lefties and will probably come cheap. If you sign him and trade Espinal for anything that breathes, then that's instantly an upgrade plus a more logical roster construction.

[Stangstag]

I doubt Atkins would trade Garcia/Richards given how obsessed he is with depth. It's more likely he lets Chapman sign elsewhere and he'll just stick with what they have.

 

Much like last season, they need a RHH 4th OF who can hit LHP. I can't imagine Robbie Grossman is turning down starting gigs elsewhere. He mashes lefties and will probably come cheap. If you sign him and trade Espinal for anything that breathes, then that's instantly an upgrade plus a more logical roster construction.

 

Yup. I don’t see us making any big moves or signings. Small/fringe moves and possibly an Espinal trade, that’s all.

[burlingtonbandit]

Man did Atkins ever misread the market this winter...

[Terminator]

Man did Atkins ever misread the market this winter...

 

He did but the beauty of signing short term deals on modest AAVs is that it doesn’t really matter that much.

 

What’s the scenario where Atkins reads the market perfectly? And how much better is the team than what we have now?

 

Seems like that scenario involves bringing back Chapman and/or signing Pham. We could probably still do that stuff still if we dumped a couple of guys.

[Jays24]

He did but the beauty of signing short term deals on modest AAVs is that it doesn’t really matter that much.

 

What’s the scenario where Atkins reads the market perfectly? And how much better is the team than what we have now?

 

Seems like that scenario involves bringing back Chapman and/or signing Pham. We could probably still do that stuff still if we dumped a couple of guys.

 

That sounds like a great alternative lol

[Terminator]

The problem with trading all the depth guys

 

Is they probably have no value now that the FA context has shifted

 

Vets are signing for $1M... why would anybody want Biggio or Garcia or Richards at their salaries?

 

Dunno boys

 

Yeah in a market where Rosario and Urshela are signing for peanuts Espinal isn’t worth jack s***. But maybe he shouldn’t be worth anything. The right move is to maybe option him to try and keep Clement.

 

And if it allows you to upgrade with moves like signing Chapman then it might be worth it anyway.

Edited February 27, 2024 by Terminator

[Terminator]

That sounds like a great alternative lol

 

What do you mean

[Jays24]

What do you mean

 

I meant having Chapman/Pham on this roster instead.

[Terminator]

I meant having Chapman/Pham on this roster instead.

 

I don’t think it’s a slam dunk compared to what we ended up with.

 

IKF/KK/Yariel are about 25 mil AAV and Chapman and Pham are probably going to sign for similar? We’ll see. I’m not even factoring in Turner but he signed late as is.

 

Chapman is about a win better than IKF but KK is a little better than Pham according to Steamer and about a win better according to Zips. We’ll see what Yariel ends up being but if he can stick in the rotation that would help.

 

In the ultimate dream scenario, Atkins pounces on the best offers he gets for Espinal/Biggio/Yimi etc. early in the offseason. He waits on IKF, KK and Yariel until their prices come down and then and we end up signing all of the above at the lower rates in addition to a couple of other guys. Would have loved to have seen the fan reaction to waiting until February to do anything though.

[Laika]

He did but the beauty of signing short term deals on modest AAVs is that it doesn’t really matter that much.

 

What’s the scenario where Atkins reads the market perfectly? And how much better is the team than what we have now?

 

Seems like that scenario involves bringing back Chapman and/or signing Pham. We could probably still do that stuff still if we dumped a couple of guys.

 

Atkins hit absolute home runs with Belt and KK last year, so he does deserve the benefit of the doubt.

 

It is possible that the majority of these cheap veteran FAs will be replacement level players anyway. It's not helpful to save money if the player sucks!

 

What if the Jays internal projections say this:

 

KK, 2 WAR

IKF, 1.5 WAR

Turner, 1.7 WAR

 

Chapman, 2.5 WAR

Pham, 1 WAR

Rosario, 1 WAR

Urshela, 1 WAR

Grichuk, 0.5 WAR

Kike, 0.5 WAR

 

I mean, it's safe to assume that Toronto wanted KK, IKF, Turner because they like them more than the alternatives i.e. they project better.

 

Having KK+DV in the OF also provides important resiliency as the team can afford to lose a CF. It's easy to plug someone into LF, it's very hard to just find a CF on your depth chart though. A team without KK in the fold, and some platoon with Pham+ in LF, is one DV injury away from.... IKF in CF? Springer in CF? Cam Eden? Nathan Lukes?

Edited February 27, 2024 by Laika

[deanmike]

Yeah in a market where Rosario and Urshela are signing for peanuts Espinal isn’t worth jack s***. But maybe he shouldn’t be worth anything. The right move is to maybe option him to try and keep Clement.

 

And if it allows you to upgrade with moves like signing Chapman then it might be worth it anyway.

 

Correct me if I'm wrong or misread, but I'm pretty sure Espinal would make the same salary even if the Jays option him because he's an arb player

 

Could end up being like BNS favourite trade proposal he loved to throw around this offseason: Espinal to any team for cash considerations

[Laika]

Correct me if I'm wrong or misread, but I'm pretty sure Espinal would make the same salary even if the Jays option him because he's an arb player

 

Could end up being like BNS favourite trade proposal he loved to throw around this offseason: Espinal to any team for cash considerations

 

Yeah I think so

 

If the player settled (didn't actually go to arb) I think the new CBA says that is a guaranteed contract, even if they are released.

 

But IIRC a player on salary arbitration contract (you went to arb) can be released during ST and be given a pro-rated portion of their salary. It used to be 30 days?

 

My understanding if they are not released, but optioned, they still get the money. So they could maybe cut him and save most of the money...