General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Carlos Danger]

Chapman sucked the 2nd half of last year and his D started going down hill also.

 

How many more wins does Chapman give us then our current configuration? (Not that I am happy with the current configuration)

 

What does Chapman really bring to the table for that amount of $$/term and exceeding the luxury tax threshold...

 

*Assuming anything more than a 1 yr pillow contract.

[Laika]

Chapman sucked the 2nd half of last year and his D started going down hill also.

 

How many more wins does Chapman give us then our current configuration? (Not that I am happy with the current configuration)

 

What does Chapman really bring to the table for that amount of $$/term and exceeding the luxury tax threshold...

 

*Assuming anything more than a 1 yr pillow contract.

 

Him and IKF are actually easy to compare because the D is probably a wash

 

Just need to look at cost and batting / baserunning

 

IKF's best year he was -11 runs combined in batting + baserunning

Chapman's 2023 he was about +9

 

So that's a 20 run swing. Two wins.

And IKF could conceivably be worse (he has been). Chapman could be better (he has been). Or it could work the other way (possible, given their ages and certain other things). We never know.

Now subtract who you think Toronto needs to trade to fit him into the budget... trading Yimi + Espinal saves $8.5M but might be a 1.2 win downgrade or so.

[The_DH]

Don't know how his finger issue progressed. I'd say it's a huge issue. First half Chapman (before finger issue) YEAH. Second half (after injury) NO THANK YOU.

[Stangstag]

Where is the idea that Barger can't do 3b coming from

 

Multiple reports saying he can't really play the position, plus the jays seemingly moving him away from the position and playing him in the OF more even though we have a hole at 3B.

[Carlos Danger]

Him and IKF are actually easy to compare because the D is probably a wash

 

Just need to look at cost and batting / baserunning

 

IKF's best year he was -11 runs combined in batting + baserunning

Chapman's 2023 he was about +9

 

So that's a 20 run swing. Two wins.

And IKF could conceivably be worse (he has been). Chapman could be better (he has been). Or it could work the other way (possible, given their ages and certain other things). We never know.

Now subtract who you think Toronto needs to trade to fit him into the budget... trading Yimi + Espinal saves $8.5M but might be a 1.2 win downgrade or so.

 

What was Chapman's 2nd half? Because unless something I/we are not aware of occurred the 2nd half... That is the Chapman I would be afraid we receive... I would wager a large part of that plus 9 was from first half stats.

[Carlos Danger]

Don't know how his finger issue progressed. I'd say it's a huge issue. First half Chapman (before finger issue) YEAH. Second half (after injury) NO THANK YOU.

 

Maybe... Regardless, don't want 2nd half Chapman and need assurances that was an outlier due to injury...

 

I would say that based on the fact he is currently a FA, other teams have the same concerns..

[max silver]

What was Chapman's 2nd half? Because unless something I/we are not aware of occurred the 2nd half... That is the Chapman I would be afraid we receive... I would wager a large part of that plus 9 was from first half stats.

 

A key point to remember is that Matt Chapman was dealing with a mangled finger for much of the second half.

[Laika]

What was Chapman's 2nd half? Because unless something I/we are not aware of occurred the 2nd half... That is the Chapman I would be afraid we receive... I would wager a large part of that plus 9 was from first half stats.

 

I dunno why this matters so much to people. I understand the narrative, but Chapman has literally never been a below average hitter. Every season is 101 wRC+ or more.

 

There would be other reasons that teams don't want to give him Boras money.

 

Tough to think of a 31 year old's defense as money in the bank. That's probably the meat and potatoes of it.

 

I would guess, actually, that some teams have more confidence in his bat than his D over the next few seasons!

 

Exhibit A, his age. Exhibit B, his OAA and UZR/150 in Toronto were just good, and not actually elite. His DRS in 2023 was elite, but not in 2022.

[wamco]

Him and IKF are actually easy to compare because the D is probably a wash

 

Just need to look at cost and batting / baserunning

 

IKF's best year he was -11 runs combined in batting + baserunning

Chapman's 2023 he was about +9

 

So that's a 20 run swing. Two wins.

And IKF could conceivably be worse (he has been). Chapman could be better (he has been). Or it could work the other way (possible, given their ages and certain other things). We never know.

Now subtract who you think Toronto needs to trade to fit him into the budget... trading Yimi + Espinal saves $8.5M but might be a 1.2 win downgrade or so.

 

- don’t forget to add in the WAR of the players replacing espinal and Garcia

 

I’d also move Richards and biggio if needed

[deanmike]

Him and IKF are actually easy to compare because the D is probably a wash

 

Just need to look at cost and batting / baserunning

 

IKF's best year he was -11 runs combined in batting + baserunning

Chapman's 2023 he was about +9

 

So that's a 20 run swing. Two wins.

And IKF could conceivably be worse (he has been). Chapman could be better (he has been). Or it could work the other way (possible, given their ages and certain other things). We never know.

Now subtract who you think Toronto needs to trade to fit him into the budget... trading Yimi + Espinal saves $8.5M but might be a 1.2 win downgrade or so.

 

The AAV figures for Yimi+Espinal seem to be taken from Fangraphs (Spotrac slightly differs). Here's the problem. According to Fangraphs the Jays didn't even spend into the 2nd threshold last season (and therefore have never been a 2nd threshold spender in franchise history). Final lux tax payroll last season according to Fangraphs was 246M compared to Spotrac which said roughly 258M (2nd threshold last season was 253M).

 

If you choose to trust Fangraphs payroll figures, then IMO the most optimistic assumption to be made that is also realistic, is an internal budget of 257M for the team's 2024 final lux tax payroll. Assuming otherwise would be extremely unrealistic, because it would just be an Hail Mary optimistic assumption of "yeah I think the Jays will do 2nd threshold for the first time ever in franchise history because I personally still want them to add players as a fan."

 

Opening day budget would probably be roughly 5M below that (252M) to leave in season wiggle room (Fangraphs had their opening day payroll as 5M lower than their final payroll last season, meaning they spent roughly 5M in season if you trust their payroll figures). Alternatively you could choose to assume Atkins uses his in season wiggle room now to bring Chapman back if the cost makes way too much sense from the team's perspective.

 

Fangraphs also has their lux tax commitments for 2024 at roughly 248.7M right now, 8.3M below the 2nd threshold. Even clearing Yimi+Richards+Espinal AAVs would only leave roughly 19.2M for Chapman's AAV. Trusting Fangraphs payroll reality instead of Spotrac's means the 3rd AAV cleared has to be Biggio instead of Richards to leave them with at least 20M AAV for Chapman.

 

The problem with that is, the organization is unrealistically high on Biggio as a LH utility guy on a team that in Atkins' own words would have preferred LH hitter additions if the players are equal in value due to the team lacking LH bats. I wouldn't be surprised if in Atkins' mind 4.2M is a steal for Biggio. What I'm basically getting at is, if you choose to trust Fangraphs payroll reality, there is basically no way Chapman is coming back lol.

[deanmike]

- don’t forget to add in the WAR of the players replacing espinal and Garcia

 

I’d also move Richards and biggio if needed

 

For the record, I agree with the take that mid roster players like Biggio, Espinal, Garcia and Richards should all be expendable to bring back a 3 fWAR everyday 3B like Chapman if the cost makes sense.

 

I just don't think the team would actually be willing to move 3/4 of these guys (especially Biggio) to bring back someone like Chapman, even if it's a reasonable AAV contract.

Edited February 26, 2024 by deanmike

[Jimcanuck]

Multiple reports saying he can't really play the position, plus the jays seemingly moving him away from the position and playing him in the OF more even though we have a hole at 3B.

 

I scan a lot of baseball material, and this is the first I have heard of it.

[Laika]

The AAV figures for Yimi+Espinal seem to be taken from Fangraphs (Spotrac slightly differs). Here's the problem. According to Fangraphs the Jays didn't even spend into the 2nd threshold last season (and therefore have never been a 2nd threshold spender in franchise history). Final lux tax payroll last season according to Fangraphs was 246M compared to Spotrac which said roughly 258M (2nd threshold last season was 253M).

 

If you choose to trust Fangraphs payroll figures, then IMO the most optimistic assumption to be made that is also realistic, is an internal budget of 257M for the team's 2024 final lux tax payroll. Assuming otherwise would be extremely unrealistic, because it would just be an Hail Mary optimistic assumption of "yeah I think the Jays will do 2nd threshold for the first time ever in franchise history because I personally still want them to add players as a fan."

 

Opening day budget would probably be roughly 5M below that (252M) to leave in season wiggle room (Fangraphs had their opening day payroll as 5M lower than their final payroll last season, meaning they spent roughly 5M in season if you trust their payroll figures). Alternatively you could choose to assume Atkins uses his in season wiggle room now to bring Chapman back if the cost makes way too much sense from the team's perspective.

 

Fangraphs also has their lux tax commitments for 2024 at roughly 248.7M right now, 8.3M below the 2nd threshold. Even clearing Yimi+Richards+Espinal AAVs would only leave roughly 19.2M for Chapman's AAV. Trusting Fangraphs payroll reality instead of Spotrac's means the 3rd AAV cleared has to be Biggio instead of Richards to leave them with at least 20M AAV for Chapman.

 

The problem with that is, the organization is unrealistically high on Biggio as a LH utility guy on a team that in Atkins' own words would have preferred LH hitter additions if the players are equal in value due to the team lacking LH bats. I wouldn't be surprised if in Atkins' mind 4.2M is a steal for Biggio. What I'm basically getting at is, if you choose to trust Fangraphs payroll reality, there is basically no way Chapman is coming back lol.

 

Yeah I was not trying to imply that Yimi + Espinal would be enough payroll to clear

 

It was just an illustration that clearing just those two would already be a loss of 1+ wins for only $8M in savings, so it would be hard at this point to clear payroll space for Chapman in a way that would make the team obviously better all things considered

 

The only way to do it is clean out 3 or 4 roster players to save a bunch of money, as you said, and then be able to replace them with league minimum guys who are almost as productive as Garcia, Espinal, Biggio, Richards. That is a tall task!

 

Whatever you or anyone thinks of those guys, they all have their MLB merits. They are all proven talents (in some ways). Garcia should be good for 0.5 wins, Richards for above replacement level value, Espinal and Biggio for positive war from the bench spots

[deanmike]

Yeah I was not trying to imply that Yimi + Espinal would be enough payroll to clear

 

It was just an illustration that clearing just those two would already be a loss of 1+ wins for only $8M in savings, so it would be hard at this point to clear payroll space for Chapman in a way that would make the team obviously better all things considered

 

The only way to do it is clean out 3 or 4 roster players to save a bunch of money, as you said, and then be able to replace them with league minimum guys who are almost as productive as Garcia, Espinal, Biggio, Richards. That is a tall task!

 

Whatever you or anyone thinks of those guys, they all have their MLB merits. They are all proven talents (in some ways). Garcia should be good for 0.5 wins, Richards for above replacement level value, Espinal and Biggio for positive war from the bench spots

 

I think Espinal is easily replaceable by Clement (only a 0.4 fWAR difference in Steamer600 projections and ZiPS is straight up higher on Clement for the next 3 years). You also avoid losing the asset for nothing, being out of options. Biggio's LH bat is easily replaceable by Horwitz, although that doesn't replace his "positional utility." Oh wait, he has a dogshit track record defensively in any position except 2B/1B, and DS with his projected bat will likely end up being an effective everyday 2B anyways! With Biggio it's more about, I think the team is way too high on him and think he has way more utility than just 2B/1B (they also see 3B/RF).

 

Losing bullpen depth just to clear AAV for Chapman would be tough however. It's not about not having quality arms in the system who can probably step up (as others have mentioned numerous names previously), it's more about the quantity of losing 2 major league bullpen arms. Always nice to have quantity and quality when it comes to pitching depth.

[wamco]

Do we end up with Chapman?

 

Yes or no

[Laika]

I think Espinal is easily replaceable by Clement (only a 0.4 fWAR difference in Steamer600 projections and ZiPS is straight up higher on Clement for the next 3 years). You also avoid losing the asset for nothing, being out of options. Biggio's LH bat is easily replaceable by Horwitz, although that doesn't replace his "positional utility." Oh wait, he has a dogshit track record defensively in any position except 2B/1B, and DS with his projected bat will likely end up being an effective everyday 2B anyways! With Biggio it's more about, I think the team is way too high on him and think he has way more utility than just 2B/1B (they also see 3B/RF).

 

Losing bullpen depth just to clear AAV for Chapman would be tough however. It's not about not having quality arms in the system who can probably step up (as others have mentioned numerous names previously), it's more about the quantity of losing 2 major league bullpen arms. Always nice to have quantity and quality when it comes to pitching depth.

 

They should be trading guys like Biggio and Espinal ANYWAY in my opinion and relying on Clement and (insert name here).

 

The current situation is kind of awkward.

 

I really dislike Espinal as a player now. That he fumbled a ball in his first spring training chance at 2B was poetic.

[deanmike]

Door A (Status Quo)

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Schneider

3B IKF

SS Bichette

LF Varsho

CF Kiermaier

RF Springer

DH Turner

Bench: Biggio, Espinal, Vogelbach

 

8 bullpen arms are Romano, Swanson, Green, Mayza, Cabrera, Garcia, Richards, and probably White as the long man (being out of options and his velo is up).

 

Door B (Clear Biggio+Espinal+Garcia+Richards AAVs and not give Vogelbach 2M if he makes the team, to be able to offer Chapman up to 23.4M AAV and remain under the 2nd threshold per Fangraphs)

 

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Schneider

3B Chapman

SS Bichette

LF Varsho

CF Kiermaier

RF Springer

DH Turner

Bench: Horwitz, Clement, IKF

 

8 bullpen arms are Romano, Swanson, Green, Mayza, Cabrera, ???, ???, and White

 

Which door would you choose, and if Door B, who are the 2 arms in the system who you think would take the spots of Garcia+Richards?

[Carlos Danger]

Do we end up with Chapman?

 

Yes or no

 

No. Atkins basically said it in the end of season press conference and by signing IKF.

[wamco]

Door A (Status Quo)

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Schneider

3B IKF

SS Bichette

LF Varsho

CF Kiermaier

RF Springer

DH Turner

Bench: Biggio, Espinal, Vogelbach

 

8 bullpen arms are Romano, Swanson, Green, Mayza, Cabrera, Garcia, Richards, and probably White as the long man (being out of options and his velo is up).

 

Door B (Clear Biggio+Espinal+Garcia+Richards AAVs and not give Vogelbach 2M if he makes the team, to be able to offer Chapman up to 23.4M AAV and remain under the 2nd threshold per Fangraphs)

 

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Schneider

3B Chapman

SS Bichette

LF Varsho

CF Kiermaier

RF Springer

DH Turner

Bench: Horwitz, Clement, IKF

 

8 bullpen arms are Romano, Swanson, Green, Mayza, Cabrera, ???, ???, and White

 

Which door would you choose, and if Door B, who are the 2 arms in the system who you think would take the spots of Garcia+Richards?

 

Door B. However I’d like to know if still room at deadline to add payroll. Obviously, could simply be the difference between chapmans salary and biggio/espinal/richards/garcia. In regard to who would be in the 2 BP spots, it would be a carousel of fresh/best arms. Bp in aaa/aa is an absolute advantage we should lean into. Maybe even the 4 trades players results in something for the future. None of the 4 will be here next year imo.

[wamco]

I say yes we will get Chapman as a flurry of trades take place league wide between now and opening day

[Spanky99]

I scan a lot of baseball material, and this is the first I have heard of it.

 

That's because it isn't true.

[L54]

Do we end up with Chapman?

 

Yes or no

 

I doubt it

[itaos]

No. Atkins basically said it in the end of season press conference and by signing IKF.

 

I may not agree with all of Atkins decisions but it was wise to not publicly state that he has money left whether true or not.

[L54]

Door A (Status Quo)

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Schneider

3B IKF

SS Bichette

LF Varsho

CF Kiermaier

RF Springer

DH Turner

Bench: Biggio, Espinal, Vogelbach

 

8 bullpen arms are Romano, Swanson, Green, Mayza, Cabrera, Garcia, Richards, and probably White as the long man (being out of options and his velo is up).

 

Door B (Clear Biggio+Espinal+Garcia+Richards AAVs and not give Vogelbach 2M if he makes the team, to be able to offer Chapman up to 23.4M AAV and remain under the 2nd threshold per Fangraphs)

 

C Jansen/Kirk

1B Vlad

2B Schneider

3B Chapman

SS Bichette

LF Varsho

CF Kiermaier

RF Springer

DH Turner

Bench: Horwitz, Clement, IKF

 

8 bullpen arms are Romano, Swanson, Green, Mayza, Cabrera, ???, ???, and White

 

Which door would you choose, and if Door B, who are the 2 arms in the system who you think would take the spots of Garcia+Richards?

 

Door B and the relievers become a revolving door but the first two are Hagen Danner and Pearson

[Carlos Danger]

I may not agree with all of Atkins decisions but it was wise to not publicly state that he has money left whether true or not.

 

It wasn't what he said about the budget. He literally said - Para phrasing, we are losing Chapman as in not coming back.

 

Now the market could have changed and Atkin/Shapiro could change their minds.

 

However, I am pretty sure that comment was because the Jay's FO knew what they offered Chapman, they had an idea what Boras would want and they didn't see great results from Chapman to even contemplate a larger offer.

[deanmike]

Door B and the relievers become a revolving door but the first two are Hagen Danner and Pearson

 

Funnily enough I was going to say exactly this as my (realistic) choice. Weird phenomenon I've noticed across the league for a while is arb guys getting psuedo-vet treatment even if they have options. If roster room opens up by moving Garcia+Richards AAVs, Pearson as an arb player may get pseudo-vet treatment and start the season with the team (and optioned if/when he sucks). Danner is interesting if he can stay healthy, already on the 40-man and projects for K rates and FIP above average relative to total team bullpen projections.

 

A couple of non-40 guys that are interesting to me in a similar sense to Danner are Connor Cooke and TJ Brock

 

Guys like Francis and Yariel are honorable mentions, because realistically if neither of them make the team as the 5th starter or long man out of the pen they probably start in AAA as starter depth.

Edited February 27, 2024 by deanmike

[John_Havok]

I may not agree with all of Atkins decisions but it was wise to not publicly state that he has money left whether true or not.

 

Twins GM the other day said something about free agency on a radio show "We're not going to go out and spend $30 million on a player right now," he said. "The players that are out there right now that probably a bunch of fans are talking about, we are not in the market for those players."

 

Dangerously close to a violation. He stopped short of naming specific players, but it’s not exactly rocket science to connect the dots.

 

Per the CBA “none of the Covered Parties may make comments to the media about the value of an unsigned free agent, or about possible or contemplated terms for an unsigned free agent, regardless of whether discussions have occurred. The prohibitions apply equally to comments that are on and off the record, as well as to comments that are provided on the condition of anonymity or published without identifying the source (e.g., "an industry source").

 

Making comments about the general budget is fine

[max silver]

It wasn't what he said about the budget. He literally said - Para phrasing, we are losing Chapman as in not coming back.

 

Now the market could have changed and Atkin/Shapiro could change their minds.

 

However, I am pretty sure that comment was because the Jay's FO knew what they offered Chapman, they had an idea what Boras would want and they didn't see great results from Chapman to even contemplate a larger offer.

 

I quickly looked into this and according to various articles Atkins said that the team would miss all of Chapman, Merrifield and Kiermaier but he later clarified that the team was interested in potentially bringing these guys back. He left the door open for all of these guys to return and Kiermaier came back despite this so called concrete statement that he would be missed. It seems to be a bit of a long shot at this point that Chapman is brought back but he still makes a lot of sense for the team to push IKF into more of a utility role.

[John_Havok]

It wasn't what he said about the budget. He literally said - Para phrasing, we are losing Chapman as in not coming back.

 

Now the market could have changed and Atkin/Shapiro could change their minds.

 

However, I am pretty sure that comment was because the Jay's FO knew what they offered Chapman, they had an idea what Boras would want and they didn't see great results from Chapman to even contemplate a larger offer.

 

From recent stuff out there from a wide variety of sources, nobody can even confirm a team having even made offers on Chapman, Montgomery or Snell since the season ended. They called Boras, got the asking price, probably laughed, hung up and just never called back.

[John_Havok]

It wasn't what he said about the budget. He literally said - Para phrasing, we are losing Chapman as in not coming back.

 

Now the market could have changed and Atkin/Shapiro could change their minds.

 

However, I am pretty sure that comment was because the Jay's FO knew what they offered Chapman, they had an idea what Boras would want and they didn't see great results from Chapman to even contemplate a larger offer.

 

Which comments are you referring to and from when?