General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[John_Havok]

Bellinger does t have s*** underlying numbers, there is a lot of red on his statcast

 

Sweet spot ... contact rate... xba, whiff rate and k rate. Sweet spot doesnt really mean much... and the other 4 are all basically interrealated. they also dont combine well with 33rd chase rate and 27th percentile walk rate.

 

WHat good is a great contact rate when your exit velo is 22nd percentile(1.2 mph ahead of Keirmaier) hard hit rate is 10th percentile, and barrel rate is 27th percentile?

 

Great you make a ton of s*** contact, but don't walk a lot, though you do hit for a nearly empty average with 57th percentile xSLG and 53rd percentile xwOBA.

 

COuple that with elite D and baserunning. THat's not a guy that you sign long term. That's a guy that could easily be KK in 2 years.

 

Would I sign him shorter term? yup. 20 million AAV, sure. But not much longer than 3-4 years.

[Rimar]

No just Tidermann for Trout:lol Will need add more prospects like Orelvis, and players like Varsho, Biggio

[Rimar]

Anyway, with Vlad, Bichette that have 99.99% chances test free agency after 2025, better jays keep their best prospects for rebuilding.

[Jimcanuck]

No just Tidermann for Trout:lol Will need add more prospects like Orelvis, and players like Varsho, Biggio

 

LOL, the Halos would be the one adding prospects, and a shitload of them

[Jimcanuck]

Sweet spot ... contact rate... xba, whiff rate and k rate. Sweet spot doesnt really mean much... and the other 4 are all basically interrealated. they also dont combine well with 33rd chase rate and 27th percentile walk rate.

 

WHat good is a great contact rate when your exit velo is 22nd percentile(1.2 mph ahead of Keirmaier) hard hit rate is 10th percentile, and barrel rate is 27th percentile?

 

Great you make a ton of s*** contact, but don't walk a lot, though you do hit for a nearly empty average with 57th percentile xSLG and 53rd percentile xwOBA.

 

COuple that with elite D and baserunning. THat's not a guy that you sign long term. That's a guy that could easily be KK in 2 years.

 

Would I sign him shorter term? yup. 20 million AAV, sure. But not much longer than 3-4 years.

 

You said he has s*** underlying numbers and you would also sign him for 20 million AAV for 4 years? Something doesn't compute.

[saskjayfan]

You said he has s*** underlying numbers and you would also sign him for 20 million AAV for 4 years? Something doesn't compute.

 

There's a lot of risk reward with Belli. He had a much better year last year. The walk rate and chase rate are still garbage when they were very good during his peak years. He's 28. If he makes incremental improvement with the approach the underlying number could actually catch up. Confidence plays into chase rate and approach. Belli's really a guy who should be in camp seeing pitches and getting ready for the season. Boras is doing him no favours chasing a deal that isn't there.

[Grant77]

I saw Don Mattingly wearing a shirt that says 'Foronto'. What does that mean?

[The Cats Ass]

LOL, the Halos would be the one adding prospects, and a shitload of them

 

I'm not sure the Angels ever trade Trout because of this reason. Can you imagine the backlash from the fan base? That degenerative spin condition torpedoed his value.

[The_DH]

Yeah, i gave up trying to really predict what a FO will or won't do since i have about 0.05% of the information they do. Trying to rationalize moves after the fact to understand their mindset is a bit easier.

 

It's obvious what the Jays need position-wise, but its also obvious they can't just cut a blank check to anyone we think might fit those needs. Sure, would be nice to have Chapman back, or Bellinger given the current alternatives in house, but knowing what you need is about the first 1% of the job and is so obvious even the comments section on Sportsnet could get it right about 25% of the time.

 

Chappy and Bellinger are interesting specifically because they have the same problem, as a result of totally opposite problems. Neither can get the long term contract they want, because people are skeptical their results won't sustain; Bellinger's because of s*** underlying numbers and Chapman because his s*** results haven't matched great underlying numbers. The great D from both isn't enough to hang the long term big money deal on.

 

that's kind of what I'm getting at: we need to stop making excuses for management and push them for results. The Habs did that a few years back: the fans stopped going to games and the team had to do something. We need to stop making excuses for poor management and send a message.

[max silver]

that's kind of what I'm getting at: we need to stop making excuses for management and push them for results. The Habs did that a few years back: the fans stopped going to games and the team had to do something. We need to stop making excuses for poor management and send a message.

 

You could maybe at least wait and see how this year's team performs before planning a full of revolt. Just because the team doesn't want to pay completely exorbitant asking prices from premiere ripoff artist Scott Boras doesn't mean the team doesn't want to win.

[John_Havok]

You said he has s*** underlying numbers and you would also sign him for 20 million AAV for 4 years? Something doesn't compute.

 

Not really. I can see you don't understand the current economics of the game. ~20 million per year is about his market value. I wouldn't want to go past 4 years given his age and the risk of his crap underlying numbers further reducing the bat value. The elite D and baserunning are a decent floor to rely on that even if he turns into KK with the bat, the length and AAV isn't an albatross.

 

the likely 8/200 he is asking for is just stupid.

[John_Havok]

that's kind of what I'm getting at: we need to stop making excuses for management and push them for results. The Habs did that a few years back: the fans stopped going to games and the team had to do something. We need to stop making excuses for poor management and send a message.

 

They haven't been poorly managed overall. They just haven't got over the hump, the hardest part to do.

[Jimcanuck]

Not really. I can see you don't understand the current economics of the game. ~20 million per year is about his market value. I wouldn't want to go past 4 years given his age and the risk of his crap underlying numbers further reducing the bat value. The elite D and baserunning are a decent floor to rely on that even if he turns into KK with the bat, the length and AAV isn't an albatross.

 

the likely 8/200 he is asking for is just stupid.

 

I understand the game economics very well.

[John_Havok]

I understand the game economics very well.

 

This isnt very evident based on your comments that you are surprised that I would sign Bellinger to a market value deal despite his crap underlying metrics.

[Jimcanuck]

This isnt very evident based on your comments that you are surprised that I would sign Bellinger to a market value deal despite his crap underlying metrics.

 

Again he doesn't have s*** (your original term) or crap (your current term) underlying metrics. If he did, then 75% of MLB position players are worse than s***.

[John_Havok]

Again he doesn't have s*** (your original term) or crap (your current term) underlying metrics. If he did, then 75% of MLB position players are worse than s***.

 

He does have crap underlying metrics in the ones that actually correlate well to continued offensive production. Please don't pretend to know more than you do just because you looked at his savant page and saw some red in some categories like contact rate and whiff rate.

[Jimcanuck]

He does have crap underlying metrics in the ones that actually correlate well to continued offensive production. Please don't pretend to know more than you do just because you looked at his savant page and saw some red in some categories like contact rate and whiff rate.

 

You are being awfully selective and disregarding the significant changes to his plate approach, which explain in part the lower underlying metrics you have concern with. There are articles out there by evaluators smarter than you that discuss it.

[John_Havok]

You are being awfully selective and disregarding the significant changes to his plate approach, which explain in part the lower underlying metrics you have concern with.

 

no, I'm not. You still don't even know what you're arguing with. I'll be glad to spell it out for you in single syllable words and really short sentences if you like.

[Jimcanuck]

no, I'm not. You still don't even know what you're arguing with. I'll be glad to spell it out for you in single syllable words and really short sentences if you like.

 

Go ahead.

[John_Havok]

Go ahead.

 

When you don't hit ball hard much you not worth the top money and long term.

 

4/80 is not top money nor long term and would be a fine market value deal given his ok floor and decent shot at 2.5-3 fWAR.

[Spanky99]

When you don't hit ball hard much you not worth the top money and long term.

 

4/80 is not top money nor long term and would be a fine market value deal given his ok floor and decent shot at 2.5-3 fWAR.

 

Should've went with cash, gave me a good chuckle. Jim's a Belly fan boi.

[Jimcanuck]

When you don't hit ball hard much you not worth the top money and long term.

 

4/80 is not top money, nor long term.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-interesting-free-agent-case

 

This is one of several analyses that look behind the numbers. You can statscout all you want, but it doesn't remotely tell the whole story, especially for unique hitting talents. Again, he made plate approach changes that explain in large part the reduction in exit velocity and hard hit from previous years. From the link:

 

“He’ll sacrifice some power to put the ball in play,” a scout told Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic recently. “I buy that that’s behind some of the average to lesser exit velocities.”

 

A key point not to be lost here is that Bellinger made far more contact in 2023 than in years past, cutting his strikeout rate from 27% to 16%. Only Ronald Acuña Jr. had a better improvement, and that carried with it some historical context. Since “hard-hit rate” is generally considered to be “of the balls you hit, how many were hit hard,” what if he’s just being penalized for that extra contact?

 

On softly hit balls, the quality of Bellinger’s contact was the second-best of his career, behind only 2019, and there was little to no overproduction or “good luck.”

 

On hard-hit balls, the quality of Bellinger’s contact was better than only his previous two down seasons, and there was considerable overproduction, which is likely where the hustle doubles and poor opposing defense comes in.

[Laika]

https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-interesting-free-agent-case

 

This is one of several analyses that look behind the numbers. You can statscout all you want, but it doesn't remotely tell the whole story, especially for unique hitting talents. Again, he made plate approach changes that explain in large part the reduction in exit velocity and hard hit from previous years. From the link:

 

“He’ll sacrifice some power to put the ball in play,” a scout told Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic recently. “I buy that that’s behind some of the average to lesser exit velocities.”

 

A key point not to be lost here is that Bellinger made far more contact in 2023 than in years past, cutting his strikeout rate from 27% to 16%. Only Ronald Acuña Jr. had a better improvement, and that carried with it some historical context. Since “hard-hit rate” is generally considered to be “of the balls you hit, how many were hit hard,” what if he’s just being penalized for that extra contact?

 

On softly hit balls, the quality of Bellinger’s contact was the second-best of his career, behind only 2019, and there was little to no overproduction or “good luck.”

 

On hard-hit balls, the quality of Bellinger’s contact was better than only his previous two down seasons, and there was considerable overproduction, which is likely where the hustle doubles and poor opposing defense comes in.

 

MaxEV, dude

[Jimcanuck]

MaxEV, dude

 

The 109.7 MPH in 2023 is 2 MPH better than 2021 and 2022. 1 MPH less than 2019 and 2020.

 

No reason why, with the injuries behind him, the MaxEV will increase by 1 MPH to get back to the 110-111 MPH level.

[Laika]

The 109.7 MPH in 2023 is 2 MPH better than 2021 and 2022. 1 MPH less than 2019 and 2020.

 

No reason why, with the injuries behind him, the MaxEV will increase by 1 MPH to get back to the 110-111 MPH level.

 

Jim, he used to hit it almost 113 mph and hard over 40% of the time

 

He has IKF maxEV and hard hit rates now

 

Cody Bellinger is not redefining wOBA or xwOBA

[John_Havok]

https://www.mlb.com/news/cody-bellinger-interesting-free-agent-case

 

This is one of several analyses that look behind the numbers. You can statscout all you want, but it doesn't remotely tell the whole story, especially for unique hitting talents. Again, he made plate approach changes that explain in large part the reduction in exit velocity and hard hit from previous years. From the link:

 

“He’ll sacrifice some power to put the ball in play,” a scout told Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic recently. “I buy that that’s behind some of the average to lesser exit velocities.”

 

A key point not to be lost here is that Bellinger made far more contact in 2023 than in years past, cutting his strikeout rate from 27% to 16%. Only Ronald Acuña Jr. had a better improvement, and that carried with it some historical context. Since “hard-hit rate” is generally considered to be “of the balls you hit, how many were hit hard,” what if he’s just being penalized for that extra contact?

 

On softly hit balls, the quality of Bellinger’s contact was the second-best of his career, behind only 2019, and there was little to no overproduction or “good luck.”

 

On hard-hit balls, the quality of Bellinger’s contact was better than only his previous two down seasons, and there was considerable overproduction, which is likely where the hustle doubles and poor opposing defense comes in.

 

Its not a "penalty" for extra contact. It's assigning limited value to the extra contact that doesn't get hit hard... meaning it's not all that useful and doesn't translate to a lot of actual runs on the board.

 

If you think he;s worth more than ~20 million per year, that means you think he will at least somewhat revert back to his pre-injury numbers when he literally murdered baseballs. He would also have to be counted on for 630+ PA per season. That's a really big gamble given his lack of hard contact.

 

Improvement in K rate isn't a big deal when all you're doing is slapping singles all over the place instead of hitting dingers. his K rate was better in 2023 than his monster 2019. But there are massive differences in walk rate(its exactly half) and ISO (.218 vs .324)

 

All he did in 2023 was repeat his 2020 season but with a better babip.

[Jimcanuck]

Jim, he used to hit it almost 113 mph and hard over 40% of the time

 

He has IKF maxEV and hard hit rates now

 

Cody Bellinger is not redefining wOBA or xwOBA

 

His EV data is close to the values for Altuve, Semien, Bregman, Bogaerts. These are all guys with low K rates that sacrifice power for contact, but are good hitters that they can punish mistakes.

 

Again, he has made approach changes, he is not the same hitter he was pre-injury.

[John_Havok]

His EV data is close to the values for Altuve, Semien, Bregman, Bogaerts

 

Again, he has made approach changes, he is not the same hitter he was pre-injury

 

Which is exactly why he shouldn't expect to be paid like he's the hitter he was pre-injury.

[Jimcanuck]

Which is exactly why he shouldn't expect to be paid like he's the hitter he was pre-injury.

 

I have said nothing about salary.

 

Jose Altuve, 5 percentile EV, 10 percentile hard hit%. s*** underlying data.

[John_Havok]

I have said nothing about salary.

 

Jose Altuve, 5 percentile EV, 10 percentile hard hit%

 

and is 5 years older and massacred by injuries in 2023. How is that in any way some kind of a defense of Bellinger?