General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Brownie19]

Seems about right. Shapiro faring a little better than Atkins which the majority of fans are getting tired of. Lots of people think the pitching is good but the offence is weak and there isn't as much optimism heading into the season as the last couple of years.

 

Ironically, fans thought the exact opposite last year. Everyone thought the offense and defense was good, but the pitching as suspect. There's probably a good chance that's what we see this year (despite the fact fans currently think the offense sucks, but the pitching is great).

[Spanky99]

The casual fans would love it I'm sure.

 

And then in Year 3 of a 6 or 7 year deal when he's an albatross and his contract has stopped us from making any moves that offseason they'll have diminished excitement and lowered confidence again.

 

Nothing more than 6/150.

[John_Havok]

Ironically, fans thought the exact opposite last year. Everyone thought the offense and defense was good, but the pitching as suspect. There's probably a good chance that's what we see this year (despite the fact fans currently think the offense sucks, but the pitching is great).

 

There's no doubt that pitching and defense is the floor that Atkins built. Everywhere on the field has above average defenders in place with the exception of Bo (who did improve a bit last year) and the cement shoed 1b. The pitching should be expected to be a top 5~ rotation

 

The Jays success or lack thereof this year will come down to what happens with the bats, or catastrophic pitching injury.

[Key22]

A lot of successful overweight pitchers: CC Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, David Wells, Babe Ruth, Jordan Montgomery... Manoah's problem seemed to be that he had no control on his slider and his fastball at 93 to 94 was not good enough to make up for that lack of command. And he doesn't seem to have an effective third pitch. Gausman's problem too is that he is basically a 2 pitch starter and if his splitter isn't great it won't be a good start.

[Laika]

A lot of successful overweight pitchers: CC Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, David Wells, Babe Ruth, Jordan Montgomery... Manoah's problem seemed to be that he had no control on his slider and his fastball at 93 to 94 was not good enough to make up for that lack of command. And he doesn't seem to have an effective third pitch. Gausman's problem too is that he is basically a 2 pitch starter and if his splitter isn't great it won't be a good start.

 

Yeah Manoah lost his stuff and his command.

 

He overperformed in 2021 and 2022 but he had almost exactly league average stuff and locations for an MLB pitcher, so he should have had a continuing floor of a decent SP3 or SP4.

 

But everything cratered in 2023 and the fancy stats say his stuff was much worse than most SP. His stuff was in line with guys like Tyler Anderson and Colin Rea and Paul Blackburn.

And his command was even worse, bottom 10 among pitchers who threw 80+ innings. Scattershot command but with no stuff.

 

Unless he gets some of it back the best case scenario might be something like Josiah Gray

[Brownie19]

Yeah Manoah lost his stuff and his command.

 

He overperformed in 2021 and 2022 but he had almost exactly league average stuff and locations for an MLB pitcher, so he should have had a continuing floor of a decent SP3 or SP4.

 

But everything cratered in 2023 and the fancy stats say his stuff was much worse than most SP. His stuff was in line with guys like Tyler Anderson and Colin Rea and Paul Blackburn.

And his command was even worse, bottom 10 among pitchers who threw 80+ innings. Scattershot command but with no stuff.

 

Unless he gets some of it back the best case scenario might be something like Josiah Gray

 

2023 all-star pitcher Josiah Gray?

[BTS]

A lot of successful overweight pitchers: CC Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, David Wells, Babe Ruth, Jordan Montgomery... Manoah's problem seemed to be that he had no control on his slider and his fastball at 93 to 94 was not good enough to make up for that lack of command. And he doesn't seem to have an effective third pitch. Gausman's problem too is that he is basically a 2 pitch starter and if his splitter isn't great it won't be a good start.

 

Manoah basically has Lance Lynn's body

[RobinThicc]

 

Nice little nepo hire lol

[Daniel Labude]

A lot of successful overweight pitchers: CC Sabathia, Bartolo Colon, David Wells, Babe Ruth, Jordan Montgomery... Manoah's problem seemed to be that he had no control on his slider and his fastball at 93 to 94 was not good enough to make up for that lack of command. And he doesn't seem to have an effective third pitch. Gausman's problem too is that he is basically a 2 pitch starter and if his splitter isn't great it won't be a good start.

 

Manoah's main problem....was the pitch clock and the added weight last season

[L54]

 

“CITY” connect should keeps us safe from red jerseys at least

[Jonn]

 

“CITY” connect should keeps us safe from red jerseys at least

 

Lets hope its connected to Toronto and not Canada.

 

As long as its not Red or Black I'm happy.

[z3r0s]

Turner probably fits us better, both in term and the occasional non-DH start. But there isn't a ton or risk with that Soler contract at only 14M yearly. He has better upside.

[L54]

Lets hope its connected to Toronto and not Canada.

 

As long as its not Red or Black I'm happy.

 

I’d take black if it guaranteed no red. Hopefully they’re good! Some of them are awesome, some are brutal

[Laika]

Turner probably fits us better, both in term and the occasional non-DH start. But there isn't a ton or risk with that Soler contract at only 14M yearly. He has better upside.

 

Yeah he probably capitulated on the AAV and just took a stink bid from the Giants

 

would guess that at the outset of the offseason we was trying to get more like 3/$60M

[Jimcanuck]

Solar to the Giants ramps up the chances Bellinger to the Jays.

[MikeM3]

I'm still in on Chapman if we got money left.

[Laika]

Solar to the Giants ramps up the chances Bellinger to the Jays.

 

I'm still in on Chapman if we got money left.

 

Cubs and Jays might just rock paper scissors for them and each get one pillow contract?

[Laika]

I think, ignoring a 1 year pillow contract possibility, capitulation for these guys would be something like

 

3/$60 for Chapman

5/$100 for Bellinger

 

With a bunch of lofty MVP type incentives to make them feel good

[deanmike]

I think, ignoring a 1 year pillow contract possibility, capitulation for these guys would be something like

 

3/$60 for Chapman

5/$100 for Bellinger

 

With a bunch of lofty MVP type incentives to make them feel good

 

You think ownership would authorize an opening day 2024 luxury tax payroll that is anywhere from 7 to 22M higher (depending on whether you trust Spotrac or Fangraphs more for payroll stuff) than last season's final luxury tax payroll by giving either one of these guys 20M AAV, pushing them into the 2nd threshold before the season even starts?

[L54]

You think ownership would authorize an opening day 2024 luxury tax payroll that is anywhere from 7 to 22M higher (depending on whether you trust Spotrac or Fangraphs more for payroll stuff) than last season's final luxury tax payroll by giving either one of these guys 20M AAV, pushing them into the 2nd threshold before the season even starts?

 

If the dollars stay the same but the years are slashed, then maybe

 

I mean you have to try and win at this point. If these two knuckleheads come crawling back with their hands in the supine position begging for a contract they should consider it

[Stangstag]

Lets hope its connected to Toronto and not Canada.

 

As long as its not Red or Black I'm happy.

 

Its 100% gonna be some kinda indigenous homage jersey

[Stangstag]

Solar to the Giants ramps up the chances Bellinger to the Jays.

 

Its kinda just the Cubs in the conversation for Bellinger now no? Jays would be 2nd probably. Maybe the Yanks or Mets swoop in and nab him who knows.

[Stangstag]

You think ownership would authorize an opening day 2024 luxury tax payroll that is anywhere from 7 to 22M higher (depending on whether you trust Spotrac or Fangraphs more for payroll stuff) than last season's final luxury tax payroll by giving either one of these guys 20M AAV, pushing them into the 2nd threshold before the season even starts?

 

No, i think there would have to be moves to cut payroll elsewhere. Garcia, Espinal and Kikuchi would top that list. Possibly Springer.

 

Too bad we decided to sink 17 million into Keirmaier and IKF…

[deanmike]

 

Someone replied to the 2nd post asking him about Chapman and he re-affirmed what he said around the time he was early on the KK and IKF adds, he's not coming back either.

 

Espinal outgoing for Slater would not be a surprising trade at all.

[glory]

I'm still in on Chapman if we got money left.

 

Yeah he wouldn’t cost the team any picks/international money, and fills a massive hole on the roster. Bellinger would cost two picks, $1m in international money, and probably a longer term for a more volatile player.

 

I expect the Jays to end up neither one but if I had to guess, I think Chapman is more realistic. He’s not a former MVP coming off a bounce back season so Boras might be less delusional with his contract ask as well.

[deanmike]

If the dollars stay the same but the years are slashed, then maybe

 

I mean you have to try and win at this point. If these two knuckleheads come crawling back with their hands in the supine position begging for a contract they should consider it

 

I don't disagree with this, but I would be pleasantly shocked if ownership authorized that kind of a tax bill increase after how last season went relative to their higher internal expectations.

[Jimcanuck]

Its kinda just the Cubs in the conversation for Bellinger now no? Jays would be 2nd probably. Maybe the Yanks or Mets swoop in and nab him who knows.

 

Cubs have come out and committed to Busch at 1B, and are very high on PCA. They have the dollars, but in their minds, possibly less of a need than the Jays.

[Laika]

You think ownership would authorize an opening day 2024 luxury tax payroll that is anywhere from 7 to 22M higher (depending on whether you trust Spotrac or Fangraphs more for payroll stuff) than last season's final luxury tax payroll by giving either one of these guys 20M AAV, pushing them into the 2nd threshold before the season even starts?

 

I think it's possible

 

They might also approve it if Ross says he thinks he can clear a few million before the season begins, by dumping a couple bench or BP guys in trades.

 

I dunno

[MikeM3]

I think, ignoring a 1 year pillow contract possibility, capitulation for these guys would be something like

 

3/$60 for Chapman

5/$100 for Bellinger

 

With a bunch of lofty MVP type incentives to make them feel good

 

I'd give Chapman that deal in 0.1 seconds.

[connorp]

I think, ignoring a 1 year pillow contract possibility, capitulation for these guys would be something like

 

3/$60 for Chapman

5/$100 for Bellinger

 

With a bunch of lofty MVP type incentives to make them feel good

 

I think if you give Bellinger outs, maybe year 2?, you could get something like that.

I’m betting on Boras. We’ll see