General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[wamco]

Anyone else think Atkins isnt committing long term salary this winter so he can go all out for Soto next year?

 

I see us having 29m to spend next year if we keep same payroll as we currently have. (This number reflects the free agents being replaced internally as well as factoring in arby raises)

 

Best I see is Alex bregman.

 

Following offseason 103m to spend but need to replace vlad, Bo, bassitt and romano mainly with rest being replaced internally

[Brownie19]

I'm hoping that's it. Soto's a game changer.

 

Seems doubtful. Great hitter, but $400M+ for a DH isn't a great idea IMO.

[wamco]

Dean, we can discuss this separately to be in sync.

[Jimcanuck]

Contracts can be back loaded. Any Soto deal will likely be backloaded + deferred salary. He'll be in range for the Jays.

[Jimcanuck]

Got to wonder about the O's and their new owners though. They are in an ideal position to sign Soto to a FRONT loaded deal.

[Laika]

Got to wonder about the O's and their new owners though. They are in an ideal position to sign Soto to a FRONT loaded deal.

 

They shouldn't really need to sign... any hitters at all, for the foreseeable future. Maybe just a pure CF type if Mullins leaves after 2025.

[wamco]

Contracts can be back loaded. Any Soto deal will likely be backloaded + deferred salary. He'll be in range for the Jays.

 

Sure. Which provides some hope IF the player is amenable to that .

 

AAV for luxury tax remains the same though.

[burlingtonbandit]

Yes I can, because far too many fans understand the randomness and luck of it all. The Dodgers have "won the offseason" this year - all while increasing the likelihood of winning a playoff series by 2%.

 

As for hitting home runs - that's just the new narrative. in 2015/2016, the Jays were s*** on for "relying on the long ball too much" and "you can't wait for the HR in the playoffs - the pitching is too good - you need to manufacture runs". Teams started looking for high contact rates and few K%'s as you needed to put the ball in play in the playoffs to win. Arizona was 22nd in HR's last year and they went to the world series. Did they benefit from a few hitters (like Moreno) hitting home runs WELL above their typical rate, in key games? Of course they did - but that's all random s***. The Twins were 3rd in the majors in HR's last year - did that make them a serious WS contender in your mind? Me neither. They weren't even favored v. the Jays, who couldn't hit s***.

 

This talk that you need to hit HRs to win in the playoffs is just another copycat situation. A few teams have success with it and then everyone thinks that's answer. You see this s*** all the time. KC started the "you can't wait for the HR in the playoffs - the pitching is too good - you need to manufacture runs" narrative in 2015/2016 - when they really just ran into a f***ton of BABIP luck.

 

KC also started the "lockdown bullpens win championships" - until Washington won in 2019 when it became "great starting pitching is what it takes to win in the playoffs". This s*** changes regularly because there is no formula to win in the playoffs - just as there's no formula to win at the casino regularly. So much randomness in both.

 

Kc won with that approach but there has always been a strong correlation to home runs and playoff success… I mean those jays teams did pretty well if you ask me..

 

Also pitching, more specifically bullpens have gotten way better with higher strikeout numbers since then so home runs are more important than ever. It’s not just some fad, but in today’s game home run correlate more with playoff success.

 

Also are we sure the jays were favoured in the series? Pretty sure the Twins were favoured -130 to -140 to win the series.

[Brownie19]

Kc won with that approach but there has always been a strong correlation to home runs and playoff success… I mean those jays teams did pretty well if you ask me..

 

Also pitching, more specifically bullpens have gotten way better with higher strikeout numbers since then so home runs are more important than ever. It’s not just some fad, but in today’s game home run correlate more with playoff success.

 

Also are we sure the jays were favoured in the series? Pretty sure the Twins were favoured -130 to -140 to win the series.

 

I was going off this - https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds/postseason-zips?enddate=2023-10-01&series=ALWCS2

 

Probability of winning may be different than the betting lines. I'm also sure there are other probability predictors.

[G-Snarls]

Seems doubtful. Great hitter, but $400M+ for a DH isn't a great idea IMO.

 

Is he even usable as an outfielder anymore? Seems like he's probably not.

 

Trading Vladdy and his massive arb salary and signing Soto as a 1B could work if you really want to make it happen.

 

After he gets his 350M-400M contract he might not give a s*** about the weak illusion that he can play an outfield spot anymore.

 

Then you still have the DH spot for a 1 year veteran and partial rest days.

 

But if course you don't get Vladdy and Soto back to back in the lineup.

[glory]

Anyone else think Atkins isnt committing long term salary this winter so he can go all out for Soto next year?

 

Not necessarily Soto, but impact free agents in general. Between KK, Turner, Jansen, Kikuchi, Garcia, and Richards, the Jays will have ~$47m coming off the books after this season, and then between guaranteed 2025 salaries and expected arbitration increases, probably around $100m coming off the books after 2025 between Vlad, Bo, IKF, Biggio, Bassitt, Romano, Green, Swanson, and Mayza. They can go after the Soto's, Tucker's, Burnes', etc, over the next two off seasons. Of course the only way for that plan to work effectively is to have some inexpensive 2-4 WAR players starting elsewhere, so prospect development over the next two seasons will be huge, especially this season.

[RustyTrombone]

Not necessarily Soto, but impact free agents in general. Between KK, Turner, Jansen, Kikuchi, Garcia, and Richards, the Jays will have ~$47m coming off the books after this season, and then between guaranteed 2025 salaries and expected arbitration increases, probably around $100m coming off the books after 2025 between Vlad, Bo, IKF, Biggio, Bassitt, Romano, Green, Swanson, and Mayza. They can go after the Soto's, Tucker's, Burnes', etc, over the next two off seasons. Of course the only way for that plan to work effectively is to have some inexpensive 2-4 WAR players starting elsewhere, so prospect development over the next two seasons will be huge, especially this season.

 

Ya we desperately need a couple guys out of the Orelvis/Roden/Schneider/Barger/Palmegiani/Jiminez group to become everyday players so we can save some salary and get that sweet sweet surplus value nectar.

[Jimcanuck]

Sure. Which provides some hope IF the player is amenable to that .

 

AAV for luxury tax remains the same though.

 

No it's not AAV for luxury tax. It's NPV for luxury tax.

[Jimcanuck]

Is he even usable as an outfielder anymore? Seems like he's probably not.

 

Trading Vladdy and his massive arb salary and signing Soto as a 1B could work if you really want to make it happen.

 

After he gets his 350M-400M contract he might not give a s*** about the weak illusion that he can play an outfield spot anymore.

 

Then you still have the DH spot for a 1 year veteran and partial rest days.

 

But if course you don't get Vladdy and Soto back to back in the lineup.

 

LF or DH for a while yet. I don't think he can even handle 1B, his footwork and hands are clumsy

[G-Snarls]

No matter what else, Vladdy needs to prove this year that he's worth keeping around

[Brownie19]

Ya we desperately need a couple guys out of the Orelvis/Roden/Schneider/Barger/Palmegiani/Jiminez group to become everyday players so we can save some salary and get that sweet sweet surplus value nectar.

 

Which may be exactly why Atkins isn't adding guys on multi-year deals and/or signing more vets. We probably need to see what the farm system can give us this year.

[G-Snarls]

Ya we desperately need a couple guys out of the Orelvis/Roden/Schneider/Barger/Palmegiani/Jiminez group to become everyday players so we can save some salary and get that sweet sweet surplus value nectar.

 

Heck yeah we do!

 

Without that there's no long term success with this roster

Edited February 8, 2024 by G-Snarls

[wamco]

I agree but the majority of these guys are more guys that you don’t really set aside positions for. More like guys you keep hungry and they force their way into starting roles. For the aaa guys, at least they just keep hitting and provides hope that it can continue but most have significant warts hence not being top prospects.

For 8 years we just haven’t really been accustomed to have possible, realistic options for mlb in aaa.

[Brownie19]

I agree but the majority of these guys are more guys that you don’t really set aside positions for. More like guys you keep hungry and they force their way into starting roles. For the aaa guys, at least they just keep hitting and provides hope that it can continue but most have significant warts hence not being top prospects.

For 8 years we just haven’t really been accustomed to have possible, realistic options for mlb in aaa.

 

Huh?

 

Kirk

Jansen

Teo

Biggio

Espinal

Tellez

Smoak

Travis

 

Those are all guys who weren't really top prospects who forced there way onto the team and into a start role for the Jays over the last 8 years. Then of course you add Vlad and Bo to the list.

 

Also - the Jays aren't projecting any of our AA/AAA guys to be "starters" this year - but there does certainly look to be room for them to force their way into a starting role. It's a pretty nice little setup actually.

[Jays24]

[Laika]

 

Yeah, not a chance.

[Jays24]

Yeah, not a chance.

 

Just hope that the Boras clients start to get desperate and his price comes down to where the Jays feel happy to take the risk. Obviously that's the only way this happens.

[Spanky99]

 

Term, I would love to hear your Kool Aid spin on this specifically as you are the biggest fan of Cody Bellinger on the planet.

 

 

...

[Jays24]

...

 

I apologize for not reading every page of this thread lol

[Stangstag]

I apologize for not reading every page of this thread lol

 

Rookie mistake

[Eat My Shatkins]

I wonder what kind of offers Bellinger is even getting at this point.

 

Jays have about $6 million left before they hit the next luxury threshold, and $26 million to the one after that.

 

Something like 5/$150 would be very palatable right now for Bellinger.

 

Pretty unlikely? Impossible?

[Jays24]

I wonder what kind of offers Bellinger is even getting at this point.

 

Jays have about $6 million left before they hit the next luxury threshold, and $26 million to the one after that.

 

Something like 5/$150 would be very palatable right now for Bellinger.

 

Pretty unlikely? Impossible?

 

Even that I think is too much. I thought he should have gotten the Springer 6/150 deal but probably got overpaid by someone for 7/175.

[G-Snarls]

I wonder what kind of offers Bellinger is even getting at this point.

 

Jays have about $6 million left before they hit the next luxury threshold, and $26 million to the one after that.

 

Something like 5/$150 would be very palatable right now for Bellinger.

 

Pretty unlikely? Impossible?

 

Spring training starts NEXT WEEK and Scott Boras still hasn't found a landing spot for Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell

[Jays24]

Spring training starts NEXT WEEK and Scott Boras still hasn't found a landing spot for Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman, Jordan Montgomery and Blake Snell

 

Don't forgot J.D. Martinez. Pretty much all the guys who were near the top of their position in free agency need homes. Hope Boras falls flat on his face because I've always hated his ego as an agent lol.

[G-Snarls]

Don't forgot J.D. Martinez. Pretty much all the guys who were near the top of their position in free agency need homes. Hope Boras falls flat on his face because I've always hated his ego as an agent lol.

 

Someone might hold out but it must be about to the point with most of them that you just ask interested teams to send their "best and final" offers and let them know you'll make a decision within 24 hours or something