General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Spanky99]

Only way this off season makes sense is if Atkins is planning to do what the Orioles did last season and just call up a bunch of prospects mid season once they start performing in AAA, and the vetrins brought in are just to maintain/raise the floor. Otherwise, yeah, this has been a very underwhelming winter.

 

There's also the deadline, I understood the route they took after missing out on Ohtani, Matsuyama and Soto, but the KK signing made no sense with Varsho on the club, IKF I get defensively(not the additional year), I'm assuming there's plenty of starts at the hot corner with youth and Turner sprinkled in. Meh, so it's looking like an off season of Turner, Green, KK and IKF... *shudders* I was really hoping for another thumper for LF. Still a playoff contender, but it's going to be tough. Let us pray.

[wamco]

Still risk in team not playing well enough to be in position to be buyers at the deadline though. Wouldn’t be the first time Atkins tried to play it too cute.

 

Maybe remaining too players are deemed to be too expensive or cost too much in a trade while the lower tiered remaining players are deemed to be marginal upgrades on our options.

In that case maybe the thought is to save 8m now and get a 16m dollar rental at the all star break and have more impact.

 

I don’t think it’s a situation where Atkins is in love with our aaa prospects and is willing to ride or die with them but I could be wrong.

[Terminator]

Still risk in team not playing well enough to be in position to be buyers at the deadline though.

 

That could be true but if we are playing that poorly then I'm not sure that overspending on mid FAs or trading good prospects to add a couple of wins would be the right play anyway. Might need to trade Vlad and/or Bo and then dip into a stronger 2025 FA class to quickly reload.

[Brownie19]

That could be true but if we are playing that poorly then I'm not sure that overspending on mid FAs or trading good prospects to add a couple of wins would be the right play anyway. Might need to trade Vlad and/or Bo and then dip into a stronger 2025 FA class to quickly reload.

 

Bingo. Massive spending on guys like Snell/Belly/Chapman would have pushed us into a bad luxury tax position and was likely never an option (Ohtani was a completely different story). If we're not in a position at the trade deadline, that probably means that we've run into a ton of injuries and/or our top core players simply haven't performed again this year and we're up shits creek anyway.

 

Now that said, I'd love to think we like our prospects enough to move Espinal and say Garcia (who could be replaced by Barger, Jimenez, Orelvis, Cooke, Pearson, Brock, Zulueta, Danner) to free up enough $$$ to sign one more impact bat (assuming one is available for like $12M). Perhaps we believe in Schneider, Horwitz, Barger, Orelvis, etc. a lot and don't see the remaining guys as upgrades. A lot of people complain about the FO's ability to develop players - hard to develop them if you never give them a shot at the ML level.

[wamco]

Which ones of Schneider and the aaa guys do you believe in to be starters on a good team, ones that will be good enough to be starters on a mediocre or bad team, which ones as one side of a platoon, or which ones will be bench or nothing

[Brownie19]

Which ones of Schneider and the aaa guys do you believe in to be starters on a good team, ones that will be good enough to be starters on a mediocre or bad team, which ones as one side of a platoon, or which ones will be bench or nothing

 

Are you asking me? I mean I can give you my guesses (as can others) but that's pretty irrelevant. I think the good news is that we are starting to get a glut of prospects who are producing well in AA/AAA - which drastically increases the likelihood that some of them become ML players. This team really does need some young, cheap, controllable talent to come in and contribute. This will reduce the risk that we "hit" on FA signings every offseason, which isn't a sustainable approach.

 

I mean - we just saw Texas win the World Series while doing this. They rolled with guys like Leody Taveras, Ezequiel Duran and were rewarded for bringing up Evan Carter super early, who went on a crazy hot streak. They handed Josh Jung the reigns (who was a good prospect - yet unproven - coming off a terrible debut and AAA season in 2022). They filled a few of their starting positions with younger fringy prospect guys - guys who wouldn't start on some/most teams in the majors.

 

Like every strategy - there is risk and a probability of failure. I think we're kind of out of money to spend on difference makers. I'm not sure signing fringy FA's like Kike Hernandez and Brian Anderson is worth blocking Barger though.

[wamco]

Are you asking me? I mean I can give you my guesses (as can others) but that's pretty irrelevant.

 

I was. Sorry if you feel it’s irrelevant though. Just trying to spur on conversation

[Terminator]

Which ones of Schneider and the aaa guys do you believe in to be starters on a good team, ones that will be good enough to be starters on a mediocre or bad team, which ones as one side of a platoon, or which ones will be bench or nothing

 

IMO something like this:

 

Starter on a good team: Tiedemann, Orelvis

Starter on a bad team: Schneider, Jimenez

Utility player: Barger

Platoon: Horwitz

Bench: Parmesani

 

Most of the other pitchers are single inning relievers except Francis who is a starter on a bad team and a multi-inning reliever on a good team.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

When do we hear about Vlad losing his arb case

[glory]

There's also the deadline, I understood the route they took after missing out on Ohtani, Matsuyama and Soto, but the KK signing made no sense with Varsho on the club, IKF I get defensively(not the additional year), I'm assuming there's plenty of starts at the hot corner with youth and Turner sprinkled in. Meh, so it's looking like an off season of Turner, Green, KK and IKF... *shudders* I was really hoping for another thumper for LF. Still a playoff contender, but it's going to be tough. Let us pray.

 

Yeah the plan made sense (go for elite talent and if that fails go for short term vets), but the execution was poor. KK is redundant with Varsho (and coming off a season he will likely not repeat), IKF's bat isn't good enough to be a starter, and Turner is 100 years old so a 'fall of a cliff' could happen at any moment. There had to be a better way to implement this strategy. The only real hope is for a prospect or two to come up mid season (or out of ST) and surprise. Not sure I'd want to bet on that, but that might be more reasonable than hoping for KK, IKF, and Turner to be difference makers.

[Jays24]

When do we hear about Vlad losing his arb case

 

Vlad will def win his case imo.

[Spanky99]

Yeah the plan made sense (go for elite talent and if that fails go for short term vets), but the execution was poor. KK is redundant with Varsho (and coming off a season he will likely not repeat), IKF's bat isn't good enough to be a starter, and Turner is 100 years old so a 'fall of a cliff' could happen at any moment. There had to be a better way to implement this strategy. The only real hope is for a prospect or two to come up mid season (or out of ST) and surprise. Not sure I'd want to bet on that, but that might be more reasonable than hoping for KK, IKF, and Turner to be difference makers.

 

It really comes to the Jays not being able to develop pitching so far, we've had to pay capital at FA cost, although that's been a strength with Atkins, these guys s***ing the bed offensively are the reason why we're in this conundrum, guys having a down year or not it's how we our structured. We need them to step up or it didn't matter, regardless.

[burlingtonbandit]

Sounds like people are finally realizing Atkins isn’t that good of a GM. The expectation right now seems to be 3rd wildcard team and even if a lot of stuff breaks right, the division still seems out of reach. They really need more power, as the playoffs it’s magnified even more.

 

For a 230M payroll the team doesn’t seem very good.

[Jays24]

Sounds like people are finally realizing Atkins isn’t that good of a GM. The expectation right now seems to be 3rd wildcard team and even if a lot of stuff breaks right, the division still seems out of reach. They really need more power, as the playoffs it’s magnified even more.

 

For a 230M payroll the team doesn’t seem very good.

 

It's crazy that our payroll is maxed out and THIS is the team we have. How the hell are we going to look in a year or so when we have to figure out Bo/Vlad. Either we're losing them for prospects or we bring them back and have to cut payroll from elsewhere. Now I won't say they have done a horrible job, I just had higher expectations considering where we were after 2020.

[Brownie19]

Are you asking me? I mean I can give you my guesses (as can others) but that's pretty irrelevant.

 

I was. Sorry if you feel it’s irrelevant though. Just trying to spur on conversation

 

I mean - I can give you my guess, but it's really a crap shoot. I think one of Horwitz, Orelvis, Schneider and Barger will be a starter for a good team, one will be a starter for a crappy team, one will be a good platoon/bench player and one will become a AAAA player. If I were to guess, I'd say Orelvis will be the starter on a good team, Schneider the starter on a crappy team, Barger will be the good platoon/bench player and Horwitz will bust.

[jaysblue]

Sounds like people are finally realizing Atkins isn’t that good of a GM. The expectation right now seems to be 3rd wildcard team and even if a lot of stuff breaks right, the division still seems out of reach. They really need more power, as the playoffs it’s magnified even more.

 

For a 230M payroll the team doesn’t seem very good.

 

The Jays pretty much have been a borderline WC team the past three seasons and it's looking like it will be another season as well. Atkins has really just been average. He's made some great moves and some questionable ones, but at the end of the day he hasn't taken this team to the next level.

 

A lot of posters bashed AA about a depleted farm system and ageing roster when he was here, but Atkins seems to get a free pass. For a $230M payroll like you said, you would expect it to be better. Jays farm system is also pretty average as well.

[burlingtonbandit]

It's crazy that our payroll is maxed out and THIS is the team we have. How the hell are we going to look in a year or so when we have to figure out Bo/Vlad. Either we're losing them for prospects or we bring them back and have to cut payroll from elsewhere. Now I won't say they have done a horrible job, I just had higher expectations considering where we were after 2020.

 

Jansen also a free agent after this season which could be a big loss. Having 2 good catchers I think is really nice luxury to have given how demanding the position is.

 

I’d like to think you can replace a lot of the bullpen guys with the glut of prospects the jays have. Manoah and or Ricky T emerging as number 3 SP would be huge given kikuchi is also a FA. Outside those 2 arms the jays don’t really have much in impact young talent, more so a lot of platoon type guys or guys who look like they can hit but have defensive question marks.

 

It’s kind of sad to think how bad the lineup would look like without Vladdy and Bo. Signing a Soto/Tucker next offseason would help though.

[Brownie19]

The Jays pretty much have been a borderline WC team the past three seasons and it's looking like it will be another season as well. Atkins has really just been average. He's made some great moves and some questionable ones, but at the end of the day he hasn't taken this team to the next level.

 

A lot of posters bashed AA about a depleted farm system and ageing roster when he was here, but Atkins seems to get a free pass. For a $230M payroll like you said, you would expect it to be better. Jays farm system is also pretty average as well.

 

We've been through this. First, I don't think a lot of people hated AA. He was criticized by Shapiro and I think a lot of fans cringed at the 2013 Marlins trade. In the end, he created a 2 year window. The Jays are positioned for their 4th straight year of contending, while it's plausible to see a 5th (without squinting too much). No - there haven't been division titles, or a "big push" to try harder to win it all. Seems they believe your chances of winning the WS don't change dramatically whether you win 105 games and take the division, or finish with 91 and play in a wild card game (I believe the numbers support this). And yes - we've had no f***ing luck in the playoffs at all, which is all any hater will point to.

 

Ross isn't a HOF GM, but he's probably in the Top 10.

 

f*** - Imagine being the Mets, Padres or Angels.

[Jays24]

The Jays pretty much have been a borderline WC team the past three seasons and it's looking like it will be another season as well. Atkins has really just been average. He's made some great moves and some questionable ones, but at the end of the day he hasn't taken this team to the next level.

 

A lot of posters bashed AA about a depleted farm system and ageing roster when he was here, but Atkins seems to get a free pass. For a $230M payroll like you said, you would expect it to be better. Jays farm system is also pretty average as well.

 

We wish we had an average farm system. Baseball America has us ranked 24th, which is one of the worst farm systems in baseball.

 

Also imagine if baseball didn't expand their playoffs... not even sure if we would have had a single playoff appearance under Shatkins in that scenario lol.

[Brownie19]

We wish we had an average farm system. Baseball America has us ranked 24th, which is one of the worst farm systems in baseball.

 

Also imagine if baseball didn't expand their playoffs... not even sure if we would have had a single playoff appearance under Shatkins in that scenario lol.

 

But there are expanded playoffs. Ever consider they may take a different approach if only 4 teams in the AL made the playoffs?

[burlingtonbandit]

We've been through this. First, I don't think a lot of people hated AA. He was criticized by Shapiro and I think a lot of fans cringed at the 2013 Marlins trade. In the end, he created a 2 year window. The Jays are positioned for their 4th straight year of contending, while it's plausible to see a 5th (without squinting too much). No - there haven't been division titles, or a "big push" to try harder to win it all. Seems they believe your chances of winning the WS don't change dramatically whether you win 105 games and take the division, or finish with 91 and play in a wild card game (I believe the numbers support this). And yes - we've had no f***ing luck in the playoffs at all, which is all any hater will point to.

 

Ross isn't a HOF GM, but he's probably in the Top 10.

 

f*** - Imagine being the Mets, Padres or Angels.

 

I have to say it is kind of ironic Shapiro criticized AA about trading the prospects meanwhile the Jays have really struggled at drafting/developing young talent in the 8 years since.

 

I wouldn’t even call the 2020 season contending, they were 4 games above .500 in a shortened season with expanded playoffs. 2021 was the best team in the “window” they have had which is funny since they didn’t make the playoffs ironically.

 

Atkins certainly isn’t the worst GM but I think people also again don’t take into account the payroll when comparing what AA had to work with back then. Remember the ST when he basically had to go around to players asking for deferred money to try to get Ervin Santana since Roger’s didn’t want to spend.

[Stangstag]

We wish we had an average farm system. Baseball America has us ranked 24th, which is one of the worst farm systems in baseball.

 

Also imagine if baseball didn't expand their playoffs... not even sure if we would have had a single playoff appearance under Shatkins in that scenario lol.

 

Just don’t forget that AAs highest win total with the Jays was 93, once. Never over 90 besides that one season

[Stangstag]

This division is tough af, and it seems like nothing ever clicks all at once for the Jays. f***ing cursed. Watch the bullpen implode next season while the offense is electric.

[Jays24]

But there are expanded playoffs. Ever consider they may take a different approach if only 4 teams in the AL made the playoffs?

 

So you're saying they're holding back from building the best possible team because of expanded playoffs? Maybe that's why we have 0 playoff wins in this era loll.

[Jays24]

Just don’t forget that AAs highest win total with the Jays was 93, once. Never over 90 besides that one season

 

In our hearts, 2015 was all we needed. I still believe that we had the best team in baseball that year. Never once have I felt that way during the Shatkins era.

 

It's crazy because the best team during the Shatkins era in my eyes was the year we didn't even make the playoffs in 2021. That was our best chance to win it all but Shatkins took too long to bolster to bullpen that year.

[burlingtonbandit]

But there are expanded playoffs. Ever consider they may take a different approach if only 4 teams in the AL made the playoffs?

 

That would be really dumb if true given Roger’s owns SN and tv ratings would be a lot higher if they were in a division race, not to mention attendance.

 

While the attendance numbers the last 2 years were pretty good there just was never that same excitement/energy that was in the ballpark during those 15/16 years. I don’t think the casual fan cares as much about making it in as a wildcard team.

[burlingtonbandit]

This division is tough af, and it seems like nothing ever clicks all at once for the Jays. f***ing cursed. Watch the bullpen implode next season while the offense is electric.

 

lol I was having this same convo with my buddy the other day. It’s like one year the offence is amazing and the pitching is terrible, and then the next year it’s the complete opposite. And then the defense is bad so they address that, meanwhile the offence falters and then the team forgets how to run the bases.. one thing after another lol. Just once I wish everything would click.

[Spanky99]

The Jays pretty much have been a borderline WC team the past three seasons and it's looking like it will be another season as well. Atkins has really just been average. He's made some great moves and some questionable ones, but at the end of the day he hasn't taken this team to the next level.

 

A lot of posters bashed AA about a depleted farm system and ageing roster when he was here, but Atkins seems to get a free pass. For a $230M payroll like you said, you would expect it to be better. Jays farm system is also pretty average as well.

 

AA brought up unsolicited, by the one and ONLY you... well done.

 

At least Atkins hadn't sold the farm for contention, could've been done, but RA didn't panic.

[Spanky99]

lol I was having this same convo with my buddy the other day. It’s like one year the offence is amazing and the pitching is terrible, and then the next year it’s the complete opposite. And then the defense is bad so they address that, meanwhile the offence falters and then the team forgets how to run the bases.. one thing after another lol. Just once I wish everything would click.

 

Welcome to baseball, lmao

[jaysblue]

In our hearts, 2015 was all we needed. I still believe that we had the best team in baseball that year. Never once have I felt that way during the Shatkins era.

 

It's crazy because the best team during the Shatkins era in my eyes was the year we didn't even make the playoffs in 2021. That was our best chance to win it all but Shatkins took too long to bolster to bullpen that year.

 

Yeah I also felt that the 2015 team on paper and the way they were playing down the stretch, the Jays had a World Series caliber team. It definitely did feel that way. They had an epic comeback, coming back down 0-2 from the Rangers in the DS. The Royals were a tough matchup and everything was clicking for them. f***, even Alcides Escobar was the ALCS MVP lol. Who knows if they were able to pull out a Game 6 win, what could have happened in Game 7. Even in that Game 6, a lot of calls went more the Royals way. Kinda felt like MLB was pushing for KC, but who knows.

 

Even the 2016 season, despite them winning a WC, you had that feeling that squad could have went on a deep run and they did. Beat the Orioles in a one-game WC at the Rogers Centre, demolished the Rangers, though again ran into a Cleveland team playing great baseball and that had great pitching in the ALCS. Nightmares of Andrew Miller haha. Disappointing series, because Cleveland really walked all over the Jays.

 

I never felt good about the Jays team in 2022 and 2023 heading into the Postseason. It was more "what if" scenarios and if they got hot at the right time, they could go on a run. The lineup struggled over 162 games in 2023, yet if the bats woke up all of a sudden in Game 163 and 164, the Jays had a chance. Didn't feel that confident with this group heading into the Postseason at all.

 

Like you said, ironically the 2021 team felt like the best team Atkins assembled on paper and the way they were playing in the final half of the season, but they missed the Postseason. Atkins could have used that "big push" mentality in 2021.