General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[deanmike]

Holy s*** man give the authoritative budget statements a rest already. Unless you are sitting in the team's budgetary meetings you simply don't know what kind of available payroll the team has at their disposal. You are taking a couple of completely non committal statements from Shapiro and Atkins where they left a lot of room for interpretation, misconstruing these into being definitive declarations with no room for change and then posting a constant stream of decisive statements indicating an exact payroll range that the team is going to spend within. Shapiro himself stated that the market will essentially dictate what level they spend to, Atkins has indicated that the team will potentially add only 1 player at current market values, and each of these statements leave an opening for the team to make more moves if the market shrinks to the point where the remaining mid tier free agents eventually sign for mid tier free agent dollars.

 

Then give the unrealistic offseason ideas a rest, including the belief that the Jays will spend every dollar available to them under the 3rd threshold in order to bankroll these unrealistic offseason ideas.

[deanmike]

What if you trade Garcia and espinal, sign bellinger/chapman and win the World Series? Is that a bad move?

 

What if you don’t win the World Series but it increases ticket sales as well as secures playoff games netting more money, is it still an overpay?

 

Trading Garcia and Espinal would only free up roughly 8.7M in 2024 AAV. I doubt 26.7M will be enough to settle Vlad's arb case before the hearing, sign either Chapman/Bellinger, and sign either Soler/JDM.

[max silver]

Then give the unrealistic offseason ideas a rest, including the belief that the Jays will spend every dollar available to them under the 3rd threshold in order to bankroll these unrealistic offseason ideas.

 

Where did I make unrealistic offseason suggestions? Feel free to point that out. I don't know how much of the team's payroll budget remains at this point and neither do you.

[wamco]

Maybe they get solar for 15 and Chapman for 20 going into the next tax bracket by 9m which at the 30pct fee on overage is a total of around 3m tax hit on it?

 

Or, as I thought u meant it, make a bellinger signing for like 23aav (under your 26.7 figure) and don’t sign a dh as now you have 4 outfielders. Vlad could dh a bit more instead of sucking at 1b for example.

[Cbert]

I’d like to know what the windows of contention are for yanks, sox, rays and orioles. Or is it only us that have a defined one that keeps being used as gospel?

 

I’m not saying it’s 2-3 years and then that’s it, it’s over and time to rebuild. But you do have a core that on average will reach FA in about two years and a GM that might only get one more shot at this before he gets canned. If our next move is Soler and then that’s it, offseason done, then I think this is the season that dictates whether we extend our guys and the window or if it’s another early exit, then a GM likely comes in and starts moving assets. End of that window

 

It’s not gospel. It’s just business.

 

The other side of that business that makes me want to believe ownership wants to continue fielding a contender is that they’ve sunk massive amounts of money into a stadium reno and rumours are saying they want to generate more baseball content once their NHL broadcast contract is done. They need to continue to invest in the on-field product to keep people paying for tickets and Sportsnet packages.

[Cbert]

Maybe they get solar for 15 and Chapman for 20 going into the next tax bracket by 9m which at the 30pct fee on overage is a total of around 3m tax hit on it?

 

Or, as I thought u meant it, make a bellinger signing for like 23aav (under your 26.7 figure) and don’t sign a dh as now you have 4 outfielders. Vlad could dh a bit more instead of sucking at 1b for example.

 

I still like Bellinger as a target for the reasons you listed. Elite defense still and gives Vlads break. The other DH options out there kinda kill all that flexibility.

[wamco]

I wasn’t referring to just you, sorry to make it seem that way. I think if vlad and Bo walk as free agents,

The world will keep on spinning. We’ll be ok. Vlad and his 25m salary especially

[Jays24]

I still like Bellinger as a target for the reasons you listed. Elite defense still and gives Vlads break. The other DH options out there kinda kill all that flexibility.

 

Bellinger is really ideal for the reasons you stated PLUS he's a left handed bat that you can put in your top 4. Clearly no one wants to pay him at his first ask so hopefully the price comes down to the point where we can make it happen. This lineup still needs TWO impact bats at minimum if they want to be serious next year.

 

I don't see it happening though because signing him makes the KK move totally irrelevant. A big hitting DH would make more sense on the team than him if we get Bellinger.

[Brownie19]

I still like Bellinger as a target for the reasons you listed. Elite defense still and gives Vlads break. The other DH options out there kinda kill all that flexibility.

 

We have other options on the team who can give Vlad a break at 1st base. Biggio being the obvious one.

[Cbert]

We have other options on the team who can give Vlad a break at 1st base. Biggio being the obvious one.

 

Yeah I know. I just think this team also desperately needs a LHB in the middle of that order and aside from Joc it seems like everyone else is RH and can’t play the field. For a team that loves its flexibility to move guys around, you’d think they’d be okay spending 20-25mill a year on a guy that can play multiple positions well and actually hit. Springer and Vlad will need DH days and if Kirk starts hitting again, you might want to slide him in there once or twice a week.

[Cbert]

I wasn’t referring to just you, sorry to make it seem that way. I think if vlad and Bo walk as free agents,

The world will keep on spinning. We’ll be ok. Vlad and his 25m salary especially

 

No worries! After I posted I kinda realized it’s more like one year and then the FO assess where we’re at. As long as Rogers doesn’t roll back payroll if they replace Atkins, I’m sure all would be fine too. I think this years s***** FA class got me a bit jaded. No clue what the next couple of crops look like

[John_Havok]

Yeah I know. I just think this team also desperately needs a LHB in the middle of that order and aside from Joc it seems like everyone else is RH and can’t play the field. For a team that loves its flexibility to move guys around, you’d think they’d be okay spending 20-25mill a year on a guy that can play multiple positions well and actually hit. Springer and Vlad will need DH days and if Kirk starts hitting again, you might want to slide him in there once or twice a week.

 

The caution with a guy like Bellinger is very real though. In order to be cool with his rumoured 200+ million price tag for however many years…you have to be damn sure his 2023 is more likely going forward than the previous 3 seasons where he was a dumpster fire offensively.

 

Looking at the peripherals that are publicly available, I think the hesitancy is completely warranted. It’s entirely possible he has found a way to work within his limitations going forward but I think I’d be far more comfortable grabbing him in a front loaded deal with an opt out after 2 years or something rather than the lengthy 8 year 200+ thing.

[G-Snarls]

I just want to know who our DH is going to be and start the season already

[Cbert]

The caution with a guy like Bellinger is very real though. In order to be cool with his rumoured 200+ million price tag for however many years…you have to be damn sure his 2023 is more likely going forward than the previous 3 seasons where he was a dumpster fire offensively.

 

Looking at the peripherals that are publicly available, I think the hesitancy is completely warranted. It’s entirely possible he has found a way to work within his limitations going forward but I think I’d be far more comfortable grabbing him in a front loaded deal with an opt out after 2 years or something rather than the lengthy 8 year 200+ thing.

 

Agree he’s a huge risk. I’d be fine with offering an opt out after the first couple of years. The overall term of his contract would suck if his hitting declines again but if the AAV is around 20M, it’s at least not a crippling contract since he’s still a strong defensive player. The DH bats on the market are only appealing because they’re short term. If you’re asking me which guy to take a risk on, Belly for 8-10/200, or Soler for 3/45, I’m leaning towards Belly for the lefty bat and the fact that DH stays open on a team that could really use that flexibility for load management.

 

Unless the Jays do some sort of franchise altering trade like acquiring Kim and Tatis, I don’t know that the right bat is even out there in the trade market for this team. Maybe Yelich if the Brewers decide to throw in the towel in the next couple of weeks?

[Eat My Shatkins]

If the Jays were to sign Bellinger I would expect him to play the bulk of his time at 1B with Vlad being the primary DH.

[G-Snarls]

If the Jays were to sign Bellinger I would expect him to play the bulk of his time at 1B with Vlad being the primary DH.

 

Either way you're wasting some defensive talent

[Brownie19]

If the Jays were to sign Bellinger I would expect him to play the bulk of his time at 1B with Vlad being the primary DH.

 

Barf.

[Rimar]

Bellinger at 200-220 millions it's a bit expensive, but soon we will lose Bichette and in 2 years Springer contract will end. We already cut payroll with Ryu, Chapman, Belt, Merrifield and Hicks gone. We can easily afford Bellinger and a DH like JDM , Soler or JP

[Rimar]

To go in arbitrary with Vlad for 1 million differential is a stupid move, if the plan is to convince him sign long term,

unless if he refused contact extension and wish test FA.

[G-Snarls]

Bellinger at 200-220 millions it's a bit expensive, but soon we will lose Bichette and in 2 years Springer contract will end. We already cut payroll with Ryu, Chapman, Belt, Merrifield and Hicks gone. We can easily afford Bellinger and a DH like JDM , Soler or JP

 

Thanks Frenchsoup

[Spanky99]

Sooooo this pic was taken yesterday and posted today on Walkoff Podcast, if this is indeed real, I want to puke...

 

 

Dude looks bigger than ever... *sighs*

[Krylian]

Sooooo this pic was taken yesterday and posted today on Walkoff Podcast, if this is indeed real, I want to puke...

 

 

Dude looks bigger than ever... *sighs*

 

Buddy got married. He's enjoying life.

[John_Havok]

Agree he’s a huge risk. I’d be fine with offering an opt out after the first couple of years. The overall term of his contract would suck if his hitting declines again but if the AAV is around 20M, it’s at least not a crippling contract since he’s still a strong defensive player. The DH bats on the market are only appealing because they’re short term. If you’re asking me which guy to take a risk on, Belly for 8-10/200, or Soler for 3/45, I’m leaning towards Belly for the lefty bat and the fact that DH stays open on a team that could really use that flexibility for load management.

 

Unless the Jays do some sort of franchise altering trade like acquiring Kim and Tatis, I don’t know that the right bat is even out there in the trade market for this team. Maybe Yelich if the Brewers decide to throw in the towel in the next couple of weeks?

 

I think Pederson is the better sign if the team wants a Lefty DH that only plays the field sparingly.

 

VS RHP

 

C - Jansen/Kirk

1b - Vlad

2b - Biggio

SS - Bo

3B - IKF

OF - Varsho, KK, Springer

DH - Pederson

 

Pinch hit for whatever lefty you need to late in the game with the backup catcher, Schneider, Clement or Espinal and if you're not pinch hitting for one of KK or Varsho, you get slightly better D at 2b late in the game. Pinch hitting for the OF and your OF takes a hit defensively for sure unless they manage to keep around a guy like Lukes, which I doubt.

 

VS LHP

 

C - Jansen/Kirk

1b - Vlad

2b - Clement/Espinal

SS - Bo

3B - IKF

OF - Schneider, Varsho/KK, Springer

DH - the catcher who isnt starting or whomever of Clement/Espinal isnt at 2b.

 

Gives max flexibility to PH later in the game for either the DH, or Clement/Espinal with one of Biggio, Varsho/KK, Pederson and get better defensively for the late innings.

 

Can throw Pederson in LF in Fenway or some other stadiums where the D doesnt matter so much anyway and give whatever OF that needs it a day off.

[Spanky99]

Buddy got married. He's enjoying life.

 

I'm just hoping this is fake news, lol.

[Krylian]

I'm just hoping this is fake news, lol.

 

We can always hope. But what does your gut tell you...

[Cbert]

I think Pederson is the better sign if the team wants a Lefty DH that only plays the field sparingly.

 

VS RHP

 

C - Jansen/Kirk

1b - Vlad

2b - Biggio

SS - Bo

3B - IKF

OF - Varsho, KK, Springer

DH - Pederson

 

Pinch hit for whatever lefty you need to late in the game with the backup catcher, Schneider, Clement or Espinal and if you're not pinch hitting for one of KK or Varsho, you get slightly better D at 2b late in the game. Pinch hitting for the OF and your OF takes a hit defensively for sure unless they manage to keep around a guy like Lukes, which I doubt.

 

VS LHP

 

C - Jansen/Kirk

1b - Vlad

2b - Clement/Espinal

SS - Bo

3B - IKF

OF - Schneider, Varsho/KK, Springer

DH - the catcher who isnt starting or whomever of Clement/Espinal isnt at 2b.

 

Gives max flexibility to PH later in the game for either the DH, or Clement/Espinal with one of Biggio, Varsho/KK, Pederson and get better defensively for the late innings.

 

Can throw Pederson in LF in Fenway or some other stadiums where the D doesnt matter so much anyway and give whatever OF that needs it a day off.

 

Pederson would be an alright add depending on cost. I just don’t love committing so many ABs to one guy at DH if he’s gonna cost $15m or more, so hopefully his cost is closer to what we gave Belt, but on a 2-3 year deal.

 

I get Belly isn’t a perfect fit either. Jumping on KK early kinda took away the need for a LHB in the OF, but the potential of getting last year’s bat with solid defense in the OF and 1B is still pretty enticing.

[deanmike]

Maybe they get solar for 15 and Chapman for 20 going into the next tax bracket by 9m which at the 30pct fee on overage is a total of around 3m tax hit on it?

Or, as I thought u meant it, make a bellinger signing for like 23aav (under your 26.7 figure) and don’t sign a dh as now you have 4 outfielders. Vlad could dh a bit more instead of sucking at 1b for example.

 

Jays won't go into the 2nd threshold until they make in season additions. 30% tax for all overages already as a 2nd year tax team. For going into the 2nd threshold there is a 12% surcharge on overages within the 2nd threshold on top of the 30% tax.

 

Example, last season they were taxed 20% on all overages as a 1st year tax team. Then the 5M they spent in season crossing into the 2nd threshold was taxed 20% plus a 12% surcharge.

[Spanky99]

Jays won't go into the 2nd threshold until they make in season additions. 30% tax for all overages already as a 2nd year tax team. For going into the 2nd threshold there is a 12% surcharge on overages within the 2nd threshold on top of the 30% tax.

 

Example, last season they were taxed 20% on all overages as a 1st year tax team. Then the 5M they spent in season crossing into the 2nd threshold was taxed 20% plus a 12% surcharge.

 

[deanmike]

 

You should put yourself to better use and instead go play in highway traffic.

[Spanky99]

You should put yourself to better use and instead go play in highway traffic.