General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Laika]

Alek Manoah can be replaced for a couple million bucks in free agency, haha

 

His projections = Rich Hill and Noah Syndergaard

 

Of course you trade him for Kim

[jaysblue]

I'll have to agree with Jonn and Term here.

 

If you can land Kim for Manoah, you have to do it. Manoah comes with way more risk moving forward and Kim has just posted seasons of 3.7 and 4.4 WAR.

[saskjayfan]

I'll have to agree with Jonn and Term here.

 

If you can land Kim for Manoah, you have to do it. Manoah comes with way more risk moving forward and Kim has just posted seasons of 3.7 and 4.4 WAR.

 

I thought Kim was a free agent after this year. If he's not a free agent until 27 it's probably going to cost you more than Manoah.

[jaysblue]

I thought Kim was a free agent after this year. If he's not a free agent until 27 it's probably going to cost you more than Manoah.

 

Kim can be a FA after 2024 because of the 2025 mutual option. Hope is you could extend him. Even if you can't I would still consider it. Kim could post a 4-5 WAR season and provides depth in case the Jays decide to trade Bo.

[L54]

Jonn is right on this one and the Manoah fanboys are wrong.

 

You’re like Kim Ng who looks to acquire middle infielders who slug under .400

[Stangstag]

Kim will be a FA after 2024 because of the 2025 mutual option. Hope is you could extend him. Even if you can't I would still consider it. Kim could post a 4-5 WAR season and provides depth in case the Jays decide to trade Bo.

 

Fixed for you.

 

IDK, just not really sure I believe in Kim. If he dips back down to 100ish wRC+ then I wouldn’t feel great that we gave up Manoah 4yrs for that. Manoah was awful in 2023 but Berrios was awful in 2022. Guys can bounce back.

 

If we had a need at SS then my opinion might be different. As-is, we have guys like Schneider etc that can produce enough at 2B

[Jimcanuck]

Fixed for you.

 

IDK, just not really sure I believe in Kim. If he dips back down to 100ish wRC+ then I wouldn’t feel great that we gave up Manoah 4yrs for that. Manoah was awful in 2023 but Berrios was awful in 2022. Guys can bounce back.

 

If we had a need at SS then my opinion might be different. As-is, we have guys like Schneider etc that can produce enough at 2B

 

Lazy comparison, Manoah 2023 FIP was 6.01, Berrios in 2022 was 4.55.

 

Manoah was a whole other level of bad.

 

Manoah WILL make a comeback, but it's rather hazy what he will be.

[z3r0s]

I think you basically just need to pray for a Manoah rebound. You can still trade him if the attitude continues, but he probably isn't worth s*** right now, so the chance he returns to some kind of form is probably worth more than whatever return is out there.

 

4 years of control is a lot.

[max silver]

I'll have to agree with Jonn and Term here.

 

If you can land Kim for Manoah, you have to do it. Manoah comes with way more risk moving forward and Kim has just posted seasons of 3.7 and 4.4 WAR.

 

It appears as though the team is nearing the end of their budgetary room, and as such may not have room to add another starter on top of the likely DH addition that's yet to come. I can't say I'd be on board with trading Manoah at this point as it basically forces one of White or Francis into the rotation instead of serving as swing man or depth types. Alek is like a box of chocolates right now in that there's no way to know what you're going to get. Is he baseball's worst starter, does he bounce back to something like mid rotation level, can he gain a few ticks on his fastball and return to being a top of the rotation starter? Something I wonder is whether a partial bounceback to mid rotation level of performance would improve his trade value relative to what it is now. There's always the danger of waiting too long to cut bait for sure but I think it's imperative the club finds out what they actually have before trading him away.

[Stangstag]

Kim projects for 3 WAR.

Schneider projects for 2 WAR.

 

Manoah for 0.8 WAR.

 

I just don’t see why you’d give up 4 years of Manoah for 1 year of Kim when it barely moves the needle. Plenty of time for Manoah to rebound. If Manoah has 1 year where he puts up 2.5 WAR then the trade isn’t worth it.

 

More important to keep Manoah as rotation depth for the next few years than to make a slight upgrade to 2B for 1 season.

[Stangstag]

And FWIW, the guy 50% of regulars here despise (Daulton Varsho) projects for the same WAR as Kim.

 

I don’t understand this infatuation with Kim as a rental.

[wilko]

It's basically trade fat man to the Padres to get Kim or bust.

[Laika]

Kim projects for 3 WAR.

Schneider projects for 2 WAR.

 

Manoah for 0.8 WAR.

 

I just don’t see why you’d give up 4 years of Manoah for 1 year of Kim when it barely moves the needle. Plenty of time for Manoah to rebound. If Manoah has 1 year where he puts up 2.5 WAR then the trade isn’t worth it.

 

More important to keep Manoah as rotation depth for the next few years than to make a slight upgrade to 2B for 1 season.

 

But Kim doesn't take any playing time from Schneider IMO, as DS is a 2B/LF.

Kim slides in at 3B and is the upgrade on IKF.

IKF bumps Espinal into absolute trade bait and maybe turns him into a B prospect or something.

[connorp]

And FWIW, the guy 50% of regulars here despise (Daulton Varsho) projects for the same WAR as Kim.

 

I don’t understand this infatuation with Kim as a rental.

 

Throwing out unproven theories again, but if you did a big study comparing offensive and defensive WAR, I’d wager you see a blatant discrepancy in market value

[max silver]

Throwing out unproven theories again, but if you did a big study comparing offensive and defensive WAR, I’d wager you see a blatant discrepancy in market value

 

Kim is very similar to Varsho in that the bulk of his value is derived from his glove. Both project in pretty similar fashions as a result as players with great gloves and about league average bats.

[Spanky99]

lol

[Stangstag]

Throwing out unproven theories again, but if you did a big study comparing offensive and defensive WAR, I’d wager you see a blatant discrepancy in market value

 

Varsho projects to be a better bat than Kim next year lol

[connorp]

Varsho projects to be a better bat than Kim next year lol

 

Yeah, I’m onky doing a drive by today, didn’t see any context. More about you guys jerking off over 4 WAR Varsho. If he was a FA this year, it wouldn’t go how you’d think

[Stangstag]

Kim is very similar to Varsho in that the bulk of his value is derived from his glove. Both project in pretty similar fashions as a result as players with great gloves and about league average bats.

 

Yeah they’re actually extremely similar players value-wise, only differences being that Kim has more contact/less power and plays a different position.

 

Would anyone here be trading Manoah for Varsho if he was a 1-yr rental?

 

Major recency bias from all you guys

[Stangstag]

Yeah, I’m onky doing a drive by today, didn’t see any context. More about you guys jerking off over 4 WAR Varsho. If he was a FA this year, it wouldn’t go how you’d think

 

I agree. I probably wouldn’t trade 4 yrs Manoah for 1 yr of Varsho either.

[Stangstag]

And for the record I do really like Varsho, and I like Kim, and don’t really like Manoah.

 

If Kim was a free agent i’d be all for it. Or if he had more control.

[connorp]

I agree. I probably wouldn’t trade 4 yrs Manoah for 1 yr of Varsho either.

 

I wouldn’t either actually. I’ve seen Manoah pitch a few times when he was still good and so I could have heavy bias but I wouldn’t trade him for a meh rental. I also don’t oppose someone taking the view he’s Ricky Romero. Wide variety of outcomes

[Terminator]

Kim projects for 3 WAR.

Schneider projects for 2 WAR.

 

Manoah for 0.8 WAR.

 

I just don’t see why you’d give up 4 years of Manoah for 1 year of Kim when it barely moves the needle.

 

The bolded part is why.

 

If Manoah is cooked like the projections suggest we'd all be laughing our asses off that the idiot Padres gave us a 3 WAR player.

[M.E.]

The bolded part is why.

 

If Manoah is cooked like the projections suggest we'd all be laughing our asses off that the idiot Padres gave us a 3 WAR player.

 

I just find it hard to believe he is cooked. We just experienced Berrios and Kikuchi having good seasons after coming off s***. I am hopeful that he has taken the off season serious and will bounce back to be an upper rotation arm.

[Terminator]

I just find it hard to believe he is cooked. We just experienced Berrios and Kikuchi having good seasons after coming off s***. I am hopeful that he has taken the off season serious and will bounce back to be an upper rotation arm.

 

It's possible but Berrios and Kikuchi seemed like different scenarios. Berrios wasn't THIS bad and Kikuchi was just wild and needed to correct that.

 

Manoah lost velo, his stuff all flattened out and he was wild on top of it. They seem to be blaming a shoulder injury? Not sure if that makes it better or worse.

[max silver]

You post that and and can't see why? lol

 

Projections aren't concrete and it's simply impossible to know what to expect from Manoah in the 2024 season. He could easily be better than the 2024 projections just as he could easily be worse. Something caused the dramatic loss in command and stuff compared to prior seasons, and whether or not Alek and the team can correct these issues to allow the stuff and command to return to prior levels will directly factor into his future potential.

 

His ZiPS projection calls for a 4.63 FIP/1.3 FWAR in 121 innings

His 20th percentile projection is 0.4 WAR

His 80th percentile projection is 2.2 WAR

 

He could easily be worse than even the 20th percentile projection if his arm/shoulder are cooked, just as he could handily beat the 80th percentile projection if the stuff and command return to previous levels. It's not like the projection systems have been particularly accurate for Alek in the past either.

 

2022 Projection 3.87 FIP 2.6 FWAR

2022 Actual 3.35 FIP 4.1 FWAR

 

Quite a bit of the WAR difference is due to the larger number of innings Alek provided compared to the projections, but this doesn't change the fact that he beat his FIP projection by a rather sizable amount.

 

2023 Projection 3.83 FIP 3.9 FWAR

2023 Actual 6.01 FIP -0.4 FWAR

 

The preseason projection called for Alek to continue providing top of the rotation quality innings, but something went sideways in the offseason and he featured dramatically worse command and stuff compared to his previous seasons. He made some really poor decisions as the season carried on with regards to fighting his demotion to the minor leagues and I can't help but feel this is overwhelmingly behind the opinions on the board that the team should just trade Alek for whatever instead of waiting to see if he can regain his form moving forward.

[Terminator]

Projections aren't concrete and it's simply impossible to know what to expect from Manoah in the 2024 season. He could easily be better than the 2024 projections just as he could easily be worse. Something caused the dramatic loss in command and stuff compared to prior seasons, and whether or not Alek and the team can correct these issues to allow the stuff and command to return to prior levels will directly factor into his future potential.

 

His ZiPS projection calls for a 4.63 FIP/1.3 FWAR in 121 innings

His 20th percentile projection is 0.4 WAR

His 80th percentile projection is 2.2 WAR

 

He could easily be worse than even the 20th percentile projection if his arm/shoulder are cooked, just as he could handily beat the 80th percentile projection if the stuff and command return to previous levels. It's not like the projection systems have been particularly accurate for Alek in the past either.

 

2022 Projection 3.87 FIP 2.6 FWAR

2022 Actual 3.35 FIP 4.1 FWAR

 

Quite a bit of the WAR difference is due to the larger number of innings Alek provided compared to the projections, but this doesn't change the fact that he beat his FIP projection by a rather sizable amount.

 

2023 Projection 3.83 FIP 3.9 FWAR

2023 Actual 6.01 FIP -0.4 FWAR

 

The preseason projection called for Alek to continue providing top of the rotation quality innings, but something went sideways in the offseason and he featured dramatically worse command and stuff compared to his previous seasons. He made some really poor decisions as the season carried on with regards to fighting his demotion to the minor leagues and I can't help but feel this is overwhelmingly behind the opinions on the board that the team should just trade Alek for whatever instead of waiting to see if he can regain his form moving forward.

 

Yeah that all makes sense but I didn't post the projections.

 

I was replying to the guy who was using the projections to say that he can't fathom how anyone would want to trade the 0.8 WAR projected guy for a 3+ WAR guy is the one who posted them.

[wamco]

Kim projects for 3 WAR.

Schneider projects for 2 WAR.

 

Manoah for 0.8 WAR.

 

I just don’t see why you’d give up 4 years of Manoah for 1 year of Kim when it barely moves the needle. Plenty of time for Manoah to rebound. If Manoah has 1 year where he puts up 2.5 WAR then the trade isn’t worth it.

 

More important to keep Manoah as rotation depth for the next few years than to make a slight upgrade to 2B for 1 season.

 

Bassitt put up a 2.6 WAR last year , it would be shocking to me to get a year like that out of manoah.

Bassitt only projected 2.4 this year, berrios 2.3

 

I’d def do Kim and Cronenworth for a nothing sandwhich if they are willing. (Adds 19m to budget this year)

[wamco]

There is no way BetAtkins keeps his attitude around for four years. First decent offer he gets, I think manoah is moved. Either a good season and sells at a higher value or he stinks and is banished to AAA waiting on injuries to get another chance. I’d think he’d be on a short leash next year.

[max silver]

Yeah that all makes sense but I didn't post the projections.

 

I was replying to the guy who was using the projections to say that he can't fathom how anyone would want to trade the 0.8 WAR projected guy for a 3+ WAR guy is the one who posted them.

 

Kim projects for 3 WAR.

Schneider projects for 2 WAR.

 

Manoah for 0.8 WAR.

 

I just don’t see why you’d give up 4 years of Manoah for 1 year of Kim when it barely moves the needle. Plenty of time for Manoah to rebound. If Manoah has 1 year where he puts up 2.5 WAR then the trade isn’t worth it.

 

More important to keep Manoah as rotation depth for the next few years than to make a slight upgrade to 2B for 1 season.

 

The entire quote provides a lot more context vs the snippet that you replied to.