General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Terminator]

Yes! Ideally you could buy some old crusty vet who has like two years remaining for some of those guys. They all just seem redundant

 

I think keeping the younger ones and trading a couple of the older ones would be wise. Redundancy for the younger ones will tend to work itself out as some exceed expectations and others falter. And if it doesn't then you've got a good problem on your hands and can trade them.

 

At this point, the IKF signing basically makes Espinal and Clement pointless. Biggio still has some value since he bats lefty and profiles a little better in the OF than IKF. But he could go as well and we wouldn't notice.

 

And you wouldn't think Espinal, Biggio and especially Clement would net you anything at all but the FA infield and trade options are so freaking grim right now that they should be able to net you something.

 

We've also got extra relievers in Yimi Garcia (7th inning type) Richards (middle inning guy) and Pearson (maybe someone still believes in his upside).

 

Surely there is some sort of package we could put together to trade to a cheap contender.

[MikeM3]

Yeah the biggest criticism is player development and that's a huge one. But I'm not sure that the book has been written yet. A couple of strong debuts from the group in AAA which includes Tiedemann (55 FV), Orelvis (50), Barger (45), Jimenez (45), Connor Cooke (40+) or Horwitz (40) and the narrative can change. There's also Zulueta (45), Palmegiani (35+) and Hayden Juenger (35+).

 

I also am not sure that the bolded part is accurate. For anyone 40 FV and up I see five 3B (most of them seem to be multi-positional as well), a SS, a CF and a RF. There's only one LF (Roden) and one DH type (Horwitz).

 

Schneider getting looks in LF now. Orelvis shaky at 2B and RF. He's probably a LF on a good team. Barger might be a RF bc of his arm. Horwitz is what, like an Adam Lind? Roden LF. I hope there's a 3B in that group but most seem bearish that there is.

 

Jimenez is a dime a dozen SS prospect. No one wants him to take over for Bo when he bolts. My eyes don't even make it to 35+ guys. Every org has 100 of them.

 

Best case IMO is Barger 3b, Orelvis RF, Schneider 2B. Horwitz DH. Jimenez Util. Roden LF. But this is like 90th percentile outcomes for every organizations 10-15 prospects.

[Terminator]

Best case IMO is Barger 3b, Orelvis RF, Schneider 2B. Horwitz DH. Jimenez Util. Roden LF. But this is like 90th percentile outcomes for every organizations 10-15 prospects.

 

Those aren't 90th percentile outcomes for our guys. Maybe like 50-70th percentile depending on the player.

 

90th percentile outcomes would be:

 

-Orelvis a perennial 30+ homer bat with average defense at either 3B or 2B. Probably makes the All-Star team a couple times?

-Schneider projects as a 2.8 WAR 2B already. A 90th percentile outcome would be something like a 4 WAR 2B lol.

-Barger becomes a 2 WAR UT guy with a lefty bat that can even handle SS for 10 games.

-Roden already projects for a 107 wRC+ this coming season. His 90th percentile is a poor man's Michael Brantley in a corner OF spot.

-Horwitz already projects for a 113 wRC+ bat. His 90th percentile would be prime Ty France?

-Leo Jimenez at 90th percentile would profile as a glove first 2+ WAR SS who bats #9 and has a .320+ OBP. Like JP Crawford prior to his power breakout.

[MikeM3]

Those aren't 90th percentile outcomes for our guys. Maybe like 50-70th percentile depending on the player.

 

90th percentile outcomes would be:

 

-Orelvis a perennial 30+ homer bat with average defense at either 3B or 2B. Probably makes the All-Star team a couple times?

-Schneider projects as a 2.8 WAR 2B already. A 90th percentile outcome would be something like a 4 WAR 2B lol.

-Barger becomes a 2 WAR UT guy with a lefty bat that can even handle SS for 10 games.

-Roden already projects for a 107 wRC+ this coming season. His 90th percentile is a poor man's Michael Brantley in a corner OF spot.

-Horwitz already projects for a 113 wRC+ bat. His 90th percentile would be prime Ty France?

-Leo Jimenez at 90th percentile would profile as a glove first 2+ WAR SS who bats #9 and has a .320+ OBP. Like JP Crawford prior to his power breakout.

 

Ya they have to hit those to start at those specific defensive positions for a WS calibre team basically.

 

None of them are slam dunk defenders except maybe Jimenez so they all have to rake.

 

What's 50th percentile for these guys.. like 0.5 war? Not even usable

[Terminator]

Ya they have to hit those to start at those specific defensive positions for a WS calibre team basically.

 

None of them are slam dunk defenders except maybe Jimenez so they all have to rake.

 

What's 50th percentile for these guys.. like 0.5 war? Not even usable

 

No way. You undersell these guys way too much. 50th percentile is:

 

-Orelvis an average everyday 2B. Value comes more from the power side and less on the glove side. 2 WAR kind of guy.

-Schneider probably the same. Low average, high walk profile. Also a 2 WAR kind of guy but he already projects for a good amount more than that.

-Barger and Jimenez would be low end regulars or platoon/utility players.

-Roden and Horwitz would be platoon players or bench players. These guys are your 50th percentile 0.5 WAR types but they bat lefty so they can be useful. But then again they are ranked 18th and 19th in our system so whatever we get from them is gravy. Steamer loves them though for whatever that is worth. Your Orioles start guys at 1B and DH that barely project to be better than these two, for example.

[MikeM3]

No way. You undersell these guys way too much. 50th percentile is:

 

-Orelvis an average everyday 2B. Value comes more from the power side and less on the glove side. 2 WAR kind of guy.

-Schneider probably the same. Low average, high walk profile. Also a 2 WAR kind of guy but he already projects for a good amount more than that.

-Barger and Jimenez would be low end regulars or platoon/utility players.

-Roden and Horwitz would be platoon players or bench players. These guys are your 50th percentile 0.5 WAR types but they bat lefty so they can be useful. But then again they are ranked 18th and 19th in our system so whatever we get from them is gravy. Steamer loves them though for whatever that is worth. Your Orioles start guys at 1B and DH that barely project to be better than these two, for example.

 

Orioles are gonna start Mayo and Basallo there soon pal we're f***ed

[Laika]

No way. You undersell these guys way too much. 50th percentile is:

 

-Orelvis an average everyday 2B. Value comes more from the power side and less on the glove side. 2 WAR kind of guy.

-Schneider probably the same. Low average, high walk profile. Also a 2 WAR kind of guy but he already projects for a good amount more than that.

-Barger and Jimenez would be low end regulars or platoon/utility players.

-Roden and Horwitz would be platoon players or bench players. These guys are your 50th percentile 0.5 WAR types but they bat lefty so they can be useful. But then again they are ranked 18th and 19th in our system so whatever we get from them is gravy. Steamer loves them though for whatever that is worth. Your Orioles start guys at 1B and DH that barely project to be better than these two, for example.

 

You would lower these percentile outcomes but not because you expect specific players to bust or be riskier. It's just because history says at least half of them will never supply any MLB value whatsoever.

 

Another way to do it is keep your 50th percentile outcomes for the players you like the most but be brutally honest about some of the guys and admit that 80% of the time they are replacement level or worse.

[Terminator]

Orioles are gonna start Mayo and Basallo there soon pal we're f***ed

 

I'm not trying to pick on you but Mayo is only a 55 FV to Orelvis' 50. If you undersold Orioles prospects like you do Jays then we could describe those guys like this:

 

With 50th percentile projections go ahead and move Mayo down the defensive spectrum (I've seen more RF projections for him than I have Orelvis) and he's a 1.5-2 WAR RF. That doesn't scare me.

 

Basallo is already 6'3'' 250 at age 18. He's not catching at that size so move him down the defensive spectrum too to 1B. No defense and no base running. We'll see if the hit tool holds as he advances. Looks good now but sometimes the more physically advanced prospects dominate the lower levels. He's a 1B/DH type. Doesn't scare me either.

[Terminator]

You would lower these percentile outcomes but not because you expect specific players to bust or be riskier. It's just because history says at least half of them will never supply any MLB value whatsoever.

 

Another way to do it is keep your 50th percentile outcomes for the players you like the most but be brutally honest about some of the guys and admit that 80% of the time they are replacement level or worse.

 

Well that's fine but do it for other systems too and it's the same thing. Can't act like Westburg and his 45 FV is some future stud with a 50th percentile projection while Orelvis and his 50 FV is destined to be a below average RF if he hits his 50th percentile.

[John_Havok]

Well that's fine but do it for other systems too and it's the same thing. Can't act like Westburg and his 45 FV is some future stud while Orelvis and his 50 FV is destined to be a below average RF.

 

It’s really just the baseball version of “the grass is greener…” syndrome.

 

Even though the RC doesn’t actually have grass…

[TheHurl]

It’s really just the baseball version of “the grass is greener…” syndrome.

 

Even though the RC doesn’t actually have grass…

 

and Camden has Blue Grass. Haven't really paid attention to the discussion but the O's are an interesting perception vs. projection team.

[John_Havok]

and Camden has Blue Grass. Haven't really paid attention to the discussion but the O's are an interesting perception vs. projection team.

 

Yeah. I think the only team that would be a total surprise at winning the AL East is Boston.

 

Baltimore will have tons of hype and expectations based on last years 101 wins, and mindless mouth breathers will definitely just say they’re the team to beat because they don’t think past last years win totals when it comes to projecting the upcoming season.

 

I’d guess they’d project somewhere around 87-92 wins, just like Tampa, the Jays and the Yanks likely will.

[Laika]

Well that's fine but do it for other systems too and it's the same thing. Can't act like Westburg and his 45 FV is some future stud with a 50th percentile projection while Orelvis and his 50 FV is destined to be a below average RF if he hits his 50th percentile.

 

I agree, mostly. Sort of.

 

Holliday is a stud. I think Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Mayo are all solid.

 

But guys like Kjerstad and Cowser and Beavers are perhaps worse or no better than all of Roden, Horwitz, even Clement, Jimenez, Barger...

 

They are way better than Toronto but it's Holliday the star and a few extra guys who could be league average, being the difference. It's not like they have ten bats that all project better man for man that Toronto's ten best.

 

And prospects are so volatile. Roden could be better than most of their bats for all we know. Orelvis could reasonably be better than Mayo. Leo Jimenez could be a 60 defender and better than a lot of their dudes. Who knows.

[Raezor19]

This... all this. Team at this point is worse.

[Spanky99]

They should definitely make a tool on Fangraphs to apply the different projection systems to your own playing time / depth chart assumptions. Would be useful.

 

Or just a little "WAR Estimator" tool where you plug in a few parameters (wRC+, position, PA, BsR, and UZR/150) and it spits out a WAR estimate.

 

Because as it stands I think most people think in a weird mashup of rate stats like wOBA and absolutely value stats like UZR and BsR and it's hard to do napkin math on it all without trying to look up comparables.

 

A lot of the time I do things like... just bucket a player as "average defensive SS with a 110 wRC+" and then look up comparables from last year close to that.

 

I remember North I believe used Steamer600 and extrapolated from there, he even had the math formula posted, but all his posts have been washed away.

[Terminator]

I agree, mostly. Sort of.

 

Holliday is a stud. I think Westburg, Ortiz, Norby, Mayo are all solid.

 

But guys like Kjerstad and Cowser and Beavers are perhaps worse or no better than all of Roden, Horwitz, even Clement, Jimenez, Barger...

 

They are way better than Toronto but it's Holliday the star and a few extra guys who could be league average, being the difference. It's not like they have ten bats that all project better man for man that Toronto's ten best.

 

And prospects are so volatile. Roden could be better than most of their bats for all we know. Orelvis could reasonably be better than Mayo. Leo Jimenez could be a 60 defender and better than a lot of their dudes. Who knows.

 

Yeah the Orioles system is a lot better than ours. But my whole point is that it's not fair to say that all of our 50s and 45s are destined to move down the defensive spectrum and more or less suck if they hit their 50th percentile and that when the Orioles' similarly ranked guys make it to the bigs they are destined to excel.

 

I'm not talking about their 60s and comparing them to our 45s. I'm talking about our 45s compared to theirs. Apples to apples it's not fair to assume that theirs will all excel and that ours will all stink.

[saskjayfan]

It feels like it's time to sign Josh Donaldson to a minor league contract with a solid 5+ mil if he makes the major league roster. What's the hold up?

[jaysblue]

It feels like it's time to sign Josh Donaldson to a minor league contract with a solid 5+ mil if he makes the major league roster. What's the hold up?

 

Yeah or Evan Longoria if the team decided to bring in a vet with some pop to maybe get 300 or so AB's. I don't want to see IKF starting 150+ games at 3B and his bat penciled in the lineup every single day.

[Frenchsoup]

Ikf will be on the field a lot with the d on the left side.Plus he's always gunna make contact and be such a threat in the baserunning game. He could shoot a really high babip and pop 15hrs with 30 steals.

[Jimcanuck]

It feels like it's time to sign Josh Donaldson to a minor league contract with a solid 5+ mil if he makes the major league roster. What's the hold up?

 

No one wants JD so the Jays can safely wait several weeks yet

[Spanky99]

JD's finished, lost his bat speed and cheats now to get to his power. Barf! Longo would be preferred if they go that route.

[Frenchsoup]

Lol

[BigCecil]

JD's finished, lost his bat speed and cheats now to get to his power. Barf! Longo would be preferred if they go that route.

 

Very hard with that huge leg kick to maintain elite chase and whiff rates as you age and have to cheat. JD chase rate was 90th percentile in 2015 and below 30th in ’23. Jose’s decline was similar.

 

Big Papi had that huge leg kick but somehow broke the aging curve with a 163 wRC+ at 40 in 2016. Then retired.

 

Looking at Harper and his stats gives you some hope with Vlad. They both had elite offensive seasons mixed with some anomalous stinker seasons, for them.

[wamco]

That season always seemed suspect

[Dick_Pole]

You guys need to give up this talk on Donaldson. 0% chance Atkins exposes himself to potential noogies and swirlies in the washroom like that.

[BTS]

You guys need to give up this talk on Donaldson. 0% chance Atkins exposes himself to potential noogies and swirlies in the washroom like that.

 

You're not thinking enough like a nerd. Donaldson is a win-win for Atkins. 5% chance he plays well and helps the team. 95% chance he's terrible and Atkins gets to call him into his office and personally tell him his MLB career is over. The ultimate nerd victory over the alpha athlete.

[Brownie19]

You're not thinking enough like a nerd. Donaldson is a win-win for Atkins. 5% chance he plays well and helps the team. 95% chance he's terrible and Atkins gets to call him into his office and personally tell him his MLB career is over. The ultimate nerd victory over the alpha athlete.

 

Billy Beane to David Justice conversation maybe?

[wilko]

Billy Beane to David Justice conversation maybe?

 

Justice was still decent with Oakland.

[Brownie19]

Justice was still decent with Oakland.

 

Yeah - after Billy told him to off his pedestal and Jonah Hill showed him how much better he is when he doesn't swing

[Dick_Pole]

You're not thinking enough like a nerd. Donaldson is a win-win for Atkins. 5% chance he plays well and helps the team. 95% chance he's terrible and Atkins gets to call him into his office and personally tell him his MLB career is over. The ultimate nerd victory over the alpha athlete.

 

Yeah but then he'll have about 10 minutes of Nelson Muntz-like "stop hitting yourself" action to deal with before security comes in to escort Donaldson out.