General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2024)

[Brownie19]

Has AA really improved though. He inherited a dynasty in the making, and has been showing the same strengths he showed with the Jays.

 

That's a fair point and we're going to find out over the next few years. He seemingly has a gift of being able to convince players to sign for a lot less than they are worth, but let's see if he can continue to draft/develop and manage the 40 man roster correctly. The reality is probably that no matter how good you really are, there's a f***ton of stuff that is outside of your control and you're inherently going to make a ton of moves that people look at in hindsight and claim it to be a poor decision. It's a tough gig.

[L54]

When should a GM be held responsible for a f***ton of stuff outside of his control?

[Laika]

All that matters is drafting and development and development of mlb players. All the good moves Atkins makes at mlb level are band aids.

 

He's really really good at those but you can see how we get passed by draft and develop orgs.

 

The bottom is about to fall out, how is that not insanely obvious? We're red lining our payroll and he's hitting on every 32 year old we sign.

 

In relation to 2010 team building, Atkins is basically god. But team building in 2024 is different.

 

Research scientists (ironically from U of T) are writing research papers on how having positional roster flexibility adds 1-2 war because baseball is actually like manufacturing.

 

All our 40 FV prospects are at LF/DH

 

Sounds like those U of T nerds would like the IKF and KK signings.

 

As far as the bolded goes, it's just not obvious yet. Prospecting is a media scam to sell clicks to fans and all of these lists are ill-informed snapshots. For all we know the next wave of core Toronto Blue Jays are already in the system.

 

I mean this front office literally did it once. Other than Vlad (who is only sometimes helpful), Mayza, and Jansen (who is only sometimes helpful) everybody from the current core was drafted/developed/acquired by Shatkins.

 

Davis Schneider in a couple of months goes from not even on the org top 30 prospect lists to 2 WAR in 141 PA and now a healthy 113 wRC+ projection. The naysayers just ignore him because his xBA was .200. Nevermind the solid xwOBA.

[BigCecil]

We could steel man the critical side. I imagine it would look something like this:

 

- Varsho trade looks poor

- Mitchy White trade looks poor

- Charlie Montoyo signing was abysmal

- The front office is responsible for fat players

- The front office is responsible for underperforming 2023 hitters

- Donaldson trade was mishandled

- Stroman trade was poor

- Even if they sold high on many prospects, they made a mistake drafting some of them in the first place

- Prospect development has been weak

- Atkins is annoying

- They pulled Berrios

 

One can play the Wall of Fame & Shame all day long given how long Shatkins has been here now. They have been a mid to good front office, but you would have to be on crack or some kind of twisted wanna be shill to say they have met their public pronouncements from 2017 on development of "waves" of impact MLB talent. Which is a hugely important success evaluation and determination factor. Personally I was excited for this FO because this is what they said and what I thought they would deliver. I don't care about us spending Rogers money, and lots of it, but I dont want us to be the org that HAS TO overpay for aging FA talent saddled with a bunch of aging players and s***** back ends of deals.

 

A few more fames and shames :

 

- Tanner Roark signing

- Morales signing jumping gun

- Grichuk extension

- LGJ cheap signing

- Berrios was a 1 WAR SP in '22. Kooch sucked in '22.

- Espy for Pearce who we had to dump anyway

- Bo

- Atkins and "42 years of control" for a bag of dogshit

- Pillow deal for Semien one of most unsuccessful ever. Shame our pen was ass and Hand. We missed playoffs by a game.

[Laika]

One can play the Wall of Fame & Shame all day long given how long Shatkins has been here now. They have been a mid to good front office, but you would have to be on crack or some kind of twisted wanna be shill to say they have met their public pronouncements from 2017 on development of "waves" of impact MLB talent. Which is a hugely important success evaluation and determination factor. Personally I was excited for this FO because this is what they said and what I thought they would deliver.

 

A few more fames and shames :

 

- Tanner Roark signing

- Morales signing jumping gun

- Grichuk extension

- LGJ cheap signing

- Berrios was a 1 WAR SP in '22

- Espy for Pearce who we had to dump anyway

- Bo

- Atkins and "42 years of control" for a bag of dogshit

- Pillow deal for Semien one of most unsuccessful ever

 

ah now we are back to negatively clinging onto a 6 year old soundbite

 

 

I can't disagree with the idea that the front office has underperformed expectations a bit. It mostly has to do with drafting and development. But, I just think people are blowing it out of proportion. There is a misapplication of the criticism. It should not rise to the magnitude you would think if you read some of these posts.

 

 

Mike seems to think the front office is geriatric, ten years behind the times, and they need to be replaced.

Dick Pole and his minions seem to think the front office is approaching the point of abject failure and Atkins should spill his own guts on the podium to save his family's honour.

[BigCecil]

ah now we are back to negatively clinging onto a 6 year old soundbite

 

 

I can't disagree with the idea that the front office has underperformed expectations a bit. It mostly has to do with drafting and development. But, I just think people are blowing it out of proportion. There is a misapplication of the criticism. It should not rise to the magnitude you would think if you read some of these posts.

 

 

Mike seems to think the front office is geriatric, ten years behind the times, and they need to be replaced.

Dick Pole and his minions seem to think the front office is approaching the point of abject failure and Atkins should spill his own guts on the podium to save his family's honour.

 

Thats ******** and you know it on the "6 year old" sound bite. Thats just trite. All the investments they made in the facilities and the pitching lab. for the first 2-3 years that was mostly what was discussed by this FO. That and coveting control of young players. That was their whole schtick. Its morphed because it didn't work out well and they pivoted to pillow deals, high payroll and signing players like Ryu and Springer.

 

That Shapiro news conference from Aug 31, 2017 will always stand out because it was also the opp Shapiro took to take shots at AA for not developing enough players and trading picks and prospects. So its fair game to assess their record too with the same critical eye.

[L54]

ah now we are back to negatively clinging onto a 6 year old soundbite

 

 

I can't disagree with the idea that the front office has underperformed expectations a bit. It mostly has to do with drafting and development. But, I just think people are blowing it out of proportion. There is a misapplication of the criticism. It should not rise to the magnitude you would think if you read some of these posts.

 

 

Mike seems to think the front office is geriatric, ten years behind the times, and they need to be replaced.

Dick Pole and his minions seem to think the front office is approaching the point of abject failure and Atkins should spill his own guts on the podium to save his family's honour.

 

It was more than a sound bite lol

 

He scolded AA for the way he operated and that he would be the guy to show us how it was done. Waves of talent, perpetual contention

 

Now here we are pretending Davis Schneider and a couple of RP prospects are the proof in the pudding

 

Go Atkins!

[Laika]

Thats ******** and you know it on the "6 year old" sound bite. Thats just trite. All the investments they made in the facilities and the pitching lab. for the first 2-3 years that was mostly what was discussed by this FO. That and coveting control of young players. That was their whole schtick. Its morphed because it didn't work out well and they pivoted to pillow deals, high payroll and signing players like Ryu and Springer.

 

That Shapiro news conference from Aug 31, 2017 will always stand out because it was also the opp Shapiro took to take shots at AA for not developing enough players and trading picks and prospects. So its fair game to assess their record too with the same critical eye.

 

Nothing changed or morphed. They expect the facilities to pay dividends over the next 20 years, probably. The new complex was unveiled in February 2021, so it hasn't even existed for three full years yet. It's not a miracle lab, it's just f***ing gym equipment and some iPads with high speed cameras... still lots of personnel and staffing and implementation stuff to figure out, none of that is easy, it's all trial and error.

 

The fact that payroll has gone up should be seen as just objectively good, not cynically as the if Rogers as begrudgingly letting Atkins bandaid over a failure to develop talent by raising payroll.

[Laika]

It was more than a sound bite lol

 

He scolded AA for the way he operated and that he would be the guy to show us how it was done. Waves of talent, perpetual contention

 

Now here we are pretending Davis Schneider and a couple of RP prospects are the proof in the pudding

 

Go Atkins!

 

Hey, when the Blue Jays win the World Series just remember - I get to be happy and you have to be disappointed.

 

 

There are various ways to view that press conference. One could view it as Shapiro just trying to justify a confusion/complicated decision to a confused fanbase.

[BigCecil]

It was more than a sound bite lol

 

He scolded AA for the way he operated and that he would be the guy to show us how it was done. Waves of talent, perpetual contention

 

Now here we are pretending Davis Schneider and a couple of RP prospects are the proof in the pudding

 

Go Atkins!

 

They went on to say the waves would ensure that we didn't need to be a "window" team. Perpetual contention would be our thang.

 

If you want to be generous to the FO you could argue since 2020 we have been in "contention". If you want to quibble with that you can argue its not happened they way they said it should. They deserve some credit either way.

 

This is a window team now any way you slice it, and the next 2 years will really test this FO.

[L54]

Hey, when the Blue Jays win the World Series just remember - I get to be happy and you have to be disappointed.

 

 

There are various ways to view that press conference. One could view it as Shapiro just trying to justify a confusion/complicated decision to a confused fanbase.

 

No I will be happy and surprised. You and Brown Town aren’t the arbiters of fandom 😂

[Laika]

No I will be happy and surprised. You and Brown Town aren’t the arbiters of fandom

 

Okay, you can be happy and surprised and apologetic.

 

I will be happy and arrogant.

[L54]

They went on to say the waves would ensure that we didn't need to be a "window" team. Perpetual contention would be our thang.

 

If you want to be generous to the FO you could argue since 2020 we have been in "contention". If you want to quibble with that you can argue its not happened they way they said it should. They deserve some credit either way.

 

This is a window team now any way you slice it, and the next 2 years will really test this FO.

 

You could technically say that you’re right, the problem is everyone who hears the word contention anticipates a playoff win is a part of that

 

If they get off to a slow start there will be some tough decisions to be made

[Laika]

I will defend Atkins to my grave, and his grave.

 

If he gets fired, I will defend him.

 

If he ends up on the Epstein list, I will...

[Brownie19]

Are people really still clinging to some promise the FO made about "waves of talent" and "sustainable winning" from 7 years ago? I've told you guys multiple times to stop listening to anything a GM, Manager or Player tells you during a press conference FFS. It's just scripted media talk - they literally train people on how to speak to the media.

 

I mean - perhaps they laid it on a bit too thick and should have known there are so many gullible fans out there who would hold onto those promises and throw it in their face 7 years later. Is there a GM out there who isn't trying to draft and develop waves of talent? Are there GM's who don't want to build a sustainable winner? I guess he could have told us the truth - that like every GM in baseball "We're going to try to draft and develop as best we can as draft picks provided the biggest opportunity for excess value, which will give us a chance for sustainable winning. But drafting and developing is a crapshoot - very few are able to do this consistently over a long period of time - and those that do often have a lot of factors simply go their way - so no promises we can deliver".

[BigCecil]

Nothing changed or morphed. They expect the facilities to pay dividends over the next 20 years, probably. The new complex was unveiled in February 2021, so it hasn't even existed for three full years yet. It's not a miracle lab, it's just f***ing gym equipment and some iPads with high speed cameras... still lots of personnel and staffing and implementation stuff to figure out, none of that is easy, it's all trial and error.

 

The fact that payroll has gone up should be seen as just objectively good, not cynically as the if Rogers as begrudgingly letting Atkins bandaid over a failure to develop talent by raising payroll.

 

I disagree that they didn't pivot. in 2017 they said we were 2-3 years away from waves of impact talent on the roster and not just 2-3 players. They didn't say 20 years. But i do agree the investment logically should pay off for decades.

 

I don't view the increase in payroll cynically. In fact they deserve some credit for the pivot. We have been essentially in contention since 2020. That didnt happen by accident. Thats why i think, despite criticisms, they have mid to good. I can even appreciate the argument that they have been top tier, even if I dont agree.

[L54]

Okay, you can be happy and surprised and apologetic.

 

I will be happy and arrogant.

 

I will be happy for you

[L54]

I will defend Atkins to my grave, and his grave.

 

If he gets fired, I will defend him.

 

If he ends up on the Epstein list, I will...

 

That’s Jim’s job

[L54]

Are people really still clinging to some promise the FO made about "waves of talent" and "sustainable winning" from 7 years ago? I've told you guys multiple times to stop listening to anything a GM, Manager or Player tells you during a press conference FFS. It's just scripted media talk - they literally train people on how to speak to the media.

 

I mean - perhaps they laid it on a bit too thick and should have known there are so many gullible fans out there who would hold onto those promises and throw it in their face 7 years later. Is there a GM out there who isn't trying to draft and develop waves of talent? Are there GM's who don't want to build a sustainable winner? I guess he could have told us the truth - that like every GM in baseball "We're going to try to draft and develop as best we can as draft picks provided the biggest opportunity for excess value, which will give us a chance for sustainable winning. But drafting and developing is a crapshoot - very few are able to do this consistently over a long period of time - and those that do often have a lot of factors simply go their way - so no promises we can deliver".

 

“I’ve told you guys”

 

Lmao okay that’s too much

 

I didn’t read any further. Sorry Brownie but you’re not that important

[max silver]

They went on to say the waves would ensure that we didn't need to be a "window" team. Perpetual contention would be our thang.

 

If you want to be generous to the FO you could argue since 2020 we have been in "contention". If you want to quibble with that you can argue its not happened they way they said it should. They deserve some credit either way.

 

This is a window team now any way you slice it, and the next 2 years will really test this FO.

 

There is definitely a greatly increased possibility that this is a window team but this if far from determined. To avoid this a lot of things will need to go right in the next few years though. Manoah, Kirk and Vlad will all need to show that 2023 were speed bump years for them and not a regular occurrence. A few of the minor league players from the pool of Tiedemann, Orelvis, Barger and Roden will need to morph into above average regulars at cost controlled league minimum salary levels, and they will possibly need to add an impact player in next year's offseason to offset the impending free agency of Vlad and/or Bo should neither of them be retained. There is a ton of money coming off of the books in the next 3 seasons and Rogers has given the club the possibility of spending to luxury tax levels to purchase free agent reinforcements as needed so there is ample opportunity to add more talent as needed from free agency to supplement the team.

[BigCecil]

No I will be happy and surprised. You and Brown Town aren’t the arbiters of fandom 😂

 

Ya man, for all my fandom imperfections, I've been a fan of the Expos and then Jays since the 70's. Thats never ever going to change. I am always happy to be wrong if something good happens to the Jays that I criticized and I'll never hope for something bad to happen so i can be "right".

[MikeM3]

Hey, when the Blue Jays win the World Series just remember - I get to be happy and you have to be disappointed.

 

 

There are various ways to view that press conference. One could view it as Shapiro just trying to justify a confusion/complicated decision to a confused fanbase.

 

We all want the Jays to win. I hope Ross bangs my mom and Arjun Niwhatshisface turns into Corey Seager.

 

I also give him tons of credit for the things he does well. The guy hit on like 9/10 of our 30 year old signings. And I have a sneaky feeling Varsho > Moreno. I just don't think those skills are as valuable as others.

[Brownie19]

They went on to say the waves would ensure that we didn't need to be a "window" team. Perpetual contention would be our thang.

 

If you want to be generous to the FO you could argue since 2020 we have been in "contention". If you want to quibble with that you can argue its not happened they way they said it should. They deserve some credit either way.

 

This is a window team now any way you slice it, and the next 2 years will really test this FO.

 

How many years of "contention" is required to no longer be considered a "window" team, but instead a perpetual contender? If we remain a contender until the end of 2026, that will be 7 straight years. I think that's close, if not past the tipping point is it not? When I think of "window" teams - I think they dart in for a 2-3 year window and then fall back into the abyss.....like, you know, the 2015-2016 Blue Jays.

 

The reality may be that it's very difficult to build a true contender like the 2015-2016 Jays were and sustain that for 6-7 years. Very few teams ever achieve this and most (like the Dodgers or Yankees) have extremely deep pockets. If you want a better chance of remaining "in contention" for 6-7 years in a row, you may not be able to be that Top 3 contender on paper.

[L54]

Ya man, for all my fandom imperfections, I've been a fan of the Expos and then Jays since the 70's. Thats never ever going to change. I am always happy to be wrong if something good happens to the Jays that I criticized and I'll never hope for something bad to happen so i can be "right".

 

Me either. My issue is I don’t think the team is good enough! Because they’re running it back with the same roster that wasn’t good enough last year. I would like to see a playoff W in my 30’s

[L54]

We all want the Jays to win. I hope Ross bangs my mom and Arjun Niwhatshisface turns into Corey Seager.

 

Hahahah

[BigCecil]

“I’ve told you guys”

 

Lmao okay that’s too much

 

I didn’t read any further. Sorry Brownie but you’re not that important

 

Brownie is just so worldly and all seeing. Really quite impressive what he can accomplish from a message board about the business of baseball. Pure wisdom.

[Laika]

Varsho > Moreno.

 

bookmarked

[BigCecil]

bookmarked

 

lol. thats enough skirmishing for me. Have a good day fellow Jays fans.

[max silver]

I disagree that they didn't pivot. in 2017 they said we were 2-3 years away from waves of impact talent on the roster and not just 2-3 players. They didn't say 20 years. But i do agree the investment logically should pay off for decades.

 

I don't view the increase in payroll cynically. In fact they deserve some credit for the pivot. We have been essentially in contention since 2020. That didnt happen by accident. Thats why i think, despite criticisms, they have mid to good. I can even appreciate the argument that they have been top tier, even if I dont agree.

 

It doesn't really seem as though Shapiro stated that the team was going to have waves of impact talent specifically, just a steady stream of prospects available in the minor league system. After the initial wave in 2019 this has largely slowed to more of a trickle, but the system is actually back to the point where there is actually a wave of talent nearly ready to be infused into the major league roster. With continued development the next few seasons could potentially see the graduation of 3 above average position players, a top of the rotation type of arm, and a lot of high octane relief options to allow the team to build an inexpensive bullpen aside from a fewer expensive options at the back of the pen.

 

The Jays’ brass truly believes the franchise has built a sustainable farm system through shrewd drafting and trades that will allow them to rebuild on a short-term schedule — going with youngsters from within, supplemented by short-term free agents for two years and then, in 2021, filling holes around the diamond and rejoining the ranks of contenders.

 

“Some of these (prospects) are going to be a lot better than we think, and some are going to not be the players that we think they’re going to be,” Jays president Mark Shapiro said recently. “Someone’s going to come out of nowhere one year and shock us and surprise us, and be a far better player than we ever dreamed he could be. That’s the nature.

 

“So you need to have waves of talent coming and you need to have dozens of prospects — not two, three, five prospects. I wish I could give fans a front-row seat to what I get to see and what I’m reading every day, and the reports I’m hearing from (player development execs) Gil (Kim) and from Ben (Cherington) and from (Eric Wedge) and from Jeff Ware. But there are some really good things happening.”

 

https://www.thestar.com/sports/blue-jays/shapiro-s-blue-jays-rebuild-starts-with-deep-farm-and-strong-stomach/article_b99c8ef2-c66d-584b-acaa-81b336021128.html

[L54]

lol. thats enough skirmishing for me. Have a good day fellow Jays fans.

 

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