GDT: SWEEP EDITION: Toronto Blue Jays @ Oakland Athletics (Game 3 of 3)

[BlueBaller]

Come on boys!

 

Clap clap clap!

[gruber92]

Ouch

[Jonn]

I don't think Trevor Richards is healthy. He hasn't been the same since hes been back.

[Casual Fan]

A triple-A team played a game against a double-A team and the triple-A team lost it.

[Spanky99]

Mookie Lynn Betts has a baseball iq off the charts. Vladdy is on the wrong side of the iq bell curve unfortunately.

 

Neat.

[Spanky99]

Lets Go Stros!!!

[THANOS]

No, it's Launch angle.

 

How is the launch angle compared to 2021?

[Casual Fan]

Forget about post-season, it's a waste of your time

[Omar]

Seems like everyone hates vladdy just when I've finally seen the light on his talents.

 

I like Vladdy. Always have. He probably has a great personality and is decent in the clubhouse no doubt. His underachievement just leaves a bad taste in everyones mouth. Pity.

[Masterbather]

Am I the only one losing interest in the team because it is so painful to watch how fat and lazy Vladdy is?

Vlad actually had a good game, was unlucky.

[Casual Fan]

Am I the only one losing interest in the team because it is so painful to watch how fat and lazy Vladdy is?

 

...and he is a clown

[Jonn]

Vlad actually had a good game, was unlucky.

 

It's September we don't have time for these excuses. He's consistently s***.

[Spanky99]

How is the launch angle compared to 2021?

 

That's my point? Hard hit% to high exit velo etc... it's a conundrum but a slight change. Chase rate seems to be the culprit.

[Spanky99]

I like Vladdy. Always have. He probably has a great personality and is decent in the clubhouse no doubt. His underachievement just leaves a bad taste in everyones mouth. Pity.

 

You were baited.

[Omar]

Vlad actually had a good game, was unlucky.

 

It's September we don't have time for these excuses. He's consistently s***.

 

[RobinThicc]

I wonder what caleb josephs barber thinks when he shows up

[Olerud363]

No, it's Launch angle.

 

Yeah launch angle and spray angle. In the 8th there Vladdy hit it at 103, 21 degrees just left of center 388 feet for an out.

 

Schneider hit it at 100, 27 degrees straight left, 393 for a homer

 

Vladdy must have the most hard hit outs to the warning track in center in baseball.

[THANOS]

That's my point? Hard hit% to high exit velo etc... it's a conundrum but a slight change. Chase rate seems to be the culprit.

 

Does that explain why similar exit velo flyballs are going shorter distances this season though? My guess is what he said, that it's stance/gather related.

[Omar]

You were baited.

 

Yep, and I bit hard.

[Masterbather]

They are who we thought they were. They don't sweep a lot of teams because they are consistently inconsistent.

They aren't going to suddenly go through some metamorphosis in September and become something else.

[bones10]

Desperately need Bo back round this lineup up

[wilko]

I wonder what caleb josephs barber thinks when he shows up

 

[Stangstag]

It's September we don't have time for these excuses. He's consistently s***.

 

Im firmly in the “its not just bad luck” camp. Something is off with Vlad

[Casual Fan]

They are who we thought they were. They don't sweep a lot of teams because they are consistently inconsistent.

They aren't going to suddenly go through some metamorphosis in September and become something else.

 

That's actually a good point. Jays are not under-performing, they are just over-rated, at least in the minds of many jay fans

[hanton]

Launch angle is only a part of it, when matched with the proper swing path / plane, then you get balls going over the fence.

[Stangstag]

Yeah launch angle and spray angle. In the 8th there Vladdy hit it at 103, 21 degrees just left of center 388 feet for an out.

 

Schneider hit it at 100, 27 degrees straight left, 393 for a homer

 

Vladdy must have the most hard hit outs to the warning track in center in baseball.

 

Him and Chapman are definitely top 10

[Jonn]

Im firmly in the “its not just bad luck” camp. Something is off with Vlad

 

Well he's not helping himself by hitting the ball on the ground metric f*** ton. It doesn't matter how hard you hit the ball if it isn't consistently in the air. He's on pace to set all time double play numbers.

 

He has the talent. He has the strength. He needs to alter his swing where he isn't hitting the ball on the ground as much. If that means striking out a little more fine. But getting himself into better counts. Not swinging at s***. And lifting the ball needs to be his priority.

[Jonn]

On the bright side NFL starts tomorrow!

 

NFL Sucks.

[Olerud363]

Does that explain why similar exit velo flyballs are going shorter distances this season though? My guess is what he said, that it's stance/gather related.

 

Is there evidence his fly balls at the same exit velocity are going less distance?

 

Seems like the issue is that he is not pulling the ball and the higher the launch angle the less the exit velocity.

 

He hit's the ball at 110+ mostly on the ground or low launch angle. It seems he hits a tonne of balls between 100 and 105, 20-25 degrees, to center.

 

My understanding is the hit probablities of batted balls still don't consider spray angle, thus Vladdy is over-rated by exit V. Would be be nice to see the expected results formulas evolve to consider spray angle.

[Omar]

Does that explain why similar exit velo flyballs are going shorter distances this season though? My guess is what he said, that it's stance/gather related.

 

It is not launch angle. 2022 you could point to launch angle. He corrected that this season and his launch angle is back to his 2021 norm.

 

As for his batted ball frequency profile, he’s the same guy he’s always been. His average launch angle was 9.4 degrees in 2021, it’s 9.5 degrees now.

 

Rest of the article here, (interesting read) one of the best I've read on the mystery that is Vladdy G. It is behind a paywall so I will post here. Formatting might be a bit wonky.

 

It was just two years ago that the only thing that separated the Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. from the AL MVP award was a historic breakthrough season from the incomparable Shohei Ohtani. I prepare my own batted ball-based analysis of the MVP and Cy Young Award races in this space, and it concurred with the voters - Ohtani deserved the hardware, with Guerrero a tough-luck 2nd with a body of work that would typically easily be enough for the top spot.

 

 

Since then, the Ohtani train has gathered even more steam. Last year, it was his turn to finish 2nd behind a truly historic season, this one turned in by the Yankees’ Aaron Judge. Again, my analysis concurred with the verdict. Just last week, I took my first crack at handicapping the 2023 MVP races, with Ohtani again the clear AL choice.

 

On the other hand, Vladdy Jr. received only deep, down-ballot support in the 2022 race, finishing 16th. He’s nowhere to be found in the 2023 sweepstakes. From 2021 to 2022, he lost 62 points of OBP and 101 points of SLG, and the downhill trend has continued this season, with Guerrero hitting only .265-.343-.432 through Sunday’s games.

 

So what gives? Has Vladimir Guerrero Jr. lost his way, or are other factors at play? Delving into his batted ball data will help provide some answers.

 

First, let’s take stock of his incredible 2021 season. His overall 95.1 mph average exit speed was tied for 2nd behind only Aaron Judge’s 95.8 mph among AL batting title qualifiers. Only five hitters exceeded his 95.8 mph average fly ball exit speed, only three his 100.3 mph average line drive exit speed, and his 93.9 mph average grounder exit speed tied Giancarlo Stanton for 1st. He was one of only 7 AL qualifiers whose fly ball, liner and grounder exit speeds all exceeded 90 mph. All of these numbers played way up, as his 15.8% K rate was far below all of his competition in the batted ball authority department.

 

Bottom line - Guerrero was even better than his gaudy actual statistics in 2021. He hit .311-.401-.601, but “should have” hit .331-.414-.617.

What’s happened since then? Decline, to be sure, but nothing that would suggest the precipitous dropoff in his actual numbers. His average liner exit speed thus far in 2023 is 98.9 mph, 6th among AL qualifiers. His 92.9 mph average grounder exit speed is over two standard deviations above league average and ranks 2nd. The decline in his fly ball average exit speed has been more significant, down to 92.3 mph, at the top end of the league average range. He’s again one of only seven AL regulars above a 90 mph average on all batted ball types. Only Guerrero and Rafael Devers did so in both 2021 and 2023.

 

So, sure, Vladdy is not the same cat as he was in 2021. That’s ok - just about no hitter that’s ever played the game is that same cat. We get a much better picture of his current true talent level by measuring the numbers he should be producing given the exit speed/launch angle of his batted ball population.

On fly balls, Guerrero is hitting just .269 AVG-.808 SLG, far below league average, for a 79 Adjusted Fly Ball Contact Score. He “should be” hitting .409 AVG-1.165 SLG, a 171 adjusted mark. He’s been even unluckier in the air than teammate Matt Chapman. He’s the 2nd unluckiest AL regular on the ground, behind the recently traded Josh Bell, with a 108 Unadjusted versus 171 Adjusted Grounder Contact Score. It’s not quite as extreme on liners (108 Unadjusted vs. 121 Adjusted Liner Contact Score), but it’s still way up there.

 

Put it all together, and Guerrero’s Unadjusted Contact Score of 92 is way below his adjusted 144 mark, by far the largest current difference in the majors. At present, he “should be” hitting .322-.387-.548, in a galaxy far beyond his current numbers.

 

As for his batted ball frequency profile, he’s the same guy he’s always been. His average launch angle was 9.4 degrees in 2021, it’s 9.5 degrees now. His fly ball rate peaked at 33.6% in 2021, it’s a more typical 29.6% now. His current 19.6% liner rate actually represents a career high. His fly ball rate actually has room to grow, so his upside is almost incalculable. He hits the ball (hard) to all fields on the ground, which along with his K rate (a career low 15.4%) gives him a high batting average floor. Remember, he’s only 24.

 

However, it also must be remembered that he brings virtually nothing to the table besides his bat, his hilarious 2022 Gold Glove Award notwithstanding. Despite his massive adjusted offensive numbers, he didn’t make my top ten AL MVP contenders through the end of July. A total of -22.7 baserunning/defense runs (per Fangraphs) will do that to you.

The 2023 version of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is not an MVP candidate. But he honestly isn’t terribly far off. And his upside remains nearly limitless. He could stand to get in a little better shape, and obviously a bit more traffic in the fly ball department is the key. But there are prospects just being called up to the big leagues that are younger than this guy. He’s accomplished an awful lot already, and remains capable of a whole lot more. Do not give up on him.

 

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Tony Blengino

 

 

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I have been active in the baseball industry for about a quarter century (after beginning my career as a CPA), mostly as an Area

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