GDT: Washington Nationals @ Toronto Blue Jays (2/3)

[Stangstag]

I love the eternal optimism. I mean that's what sports is all about. Schneider should have pinch ran for Kirk. in the 8th though. They should have found a way to win in the 9th. I've always felt like they were going to make the playoffs all year. After last night, I felt like maybe they weren't. I'm still hanging in there though. What else am I going to do every night at from 5 to 8 local time? Talk to my wife?

 

It really does feel like its just not gonna happen this year. Especially when you see situations like last night in the 9th. Bases loaded no out with our best guys up and we only manage 1 run.

[Stangstag]

And its been the same story all year. It HASN’T turned around

[jaysblue]

Hope is what we have, that's it.

 

[jaysblue]

And its been the same story all year. It HASN’T turned around

 

Yeah this has been going on for the entire year with this group. Hopefully Atkins can shake things up this offseason. Not sure what he'll be able to do, but hopefully he could be creative.

[BigCecil]

Yeah this has been going on for the entire year with this group. Hopefully Atkins can shake things up this offseason. Not sure what he'll be able to do, but hopefully he could be creative.

 

There is a reasonable chance he is not around if no playoffs. Ross fired Charlie last year. Using that card on John now again not likely. What’s that Daniel Day Lewis movie? There Will Be Blood. At an absolute minimum I expect some of the coaches would be done.

[Brownie19]

Yeah this has been going on for the entire year with this group. Hopefully Atkins can shake things up this offseason. Not sure what he'll be able to do, but hopefully he could be creative.

 

Don't you hope he's fired?

[Brownie19]

And its been the same story all year. It HASN’T turned around

 

What really sucks is that there's a good probability that if you had the exact same lineup in 2024, there's a good chance that most return back to their career norms and this is a top 5-10 offense. Of course the likelihood this pitching staff repeats is probably really low. That's baseball unfortunately.

[glory]

There is a reasonable chance he is not around if no playoffs. Ross fired Charlie last year. Using that card on John now again not likely. What’s that Daniel Day Lewis movie? There Will Be Blood. At an absolute minimum I expect some of the coaches would be done.

 

My guess is they'll replace the hitting coaches and keep everyone else. I don't see Shapiro getting rid of Atkins after likely finishing with around 85-87 wins this season (although Bo's injury might drop that number) and winning 90+ games the prior 2 years, and I can't see Atkins firing his 2nd manager in 18 months, so Schneider is probably safe.

[jaysblue]

Don't you hope he's fired?

 

I've actually said I don't think Atkins deserves to be fired in other posts/threads if the Jays miss the Postseason in 2023, though he should definitely be on a short leash in 2024. I place more blame on the players this year than Atkins and the FO. If the Jays struggle in the early going or look mediocre again in 2024, it's probably time to cut ties with him though.

[jaysblue]

What really sucks is that there's a good probability that if you had the exact same lineup in 2024, there's a good chance that most return back to their career norms and this is a top 5-10 offense. Of course the likelihood this pitching staff repeats is probably really low. That's baseball unfortunately.

 

It's not that easy to just assume that.

 

- Springer will be a year older and looks like he's regressing.

 

- Vlad is the X factor really. If he bounces back and comes close to his 2021 form, this lineup looks a lot more different. Jays are kind of stuck in limbo with him. You either trade him for another hyped up player who has disappointed thus far (sometimes a change of scenery does a player or pitcher good) or you keep riding with him in hopes he gets motivated before he becomes a FA and has another monster season or two. Regardless, not an easy decision for Atkins or any GM for that matter.

 

- Kirk needs to get into better shape and find his power stroke again. I don't think he'll improve on his 2022 season, but hope he could be a .250/.370/.400 guy with 10-15 HR's.

 

Some question marks still remain but Vladdy and Kirk are still young enough to make some changes and improve. More worried about Springer due to his age.

 

As for the pitching, does Gausman keep pitching at this high level or does he regress/slip a bit? Gotta hope Gausman can still be a 5-6 WAR pitcher. Berrios looks consistent and is what he is. Who knows what Kikuchi you get. I would make Manoah fight for a rotation spot, wouldn't just hand him one. As for the bullpen, likely will be some turnover as there always is.

[jaysblue]

There is a reasonable chance he is not around if no playoffs. Ross fired Charlie last year. Using that card on John now again not likely. What’s that Daniel Day Lewis movie? There Will Be Blood. At an absolute minimum I expect some of the coaches would be done.

 

Yeah unfortunately Atkins will take a lot of blame from the higher ups in Rogers and the media if the team does fail to make the Postseason. Don't think he deserves it, but like you said he's already used the fire manager card once and likely can't use it again. Hopefully there are changes in the coaching staff (hitting) which I think are warranted.

[BigCecil]

What really sucks is that there's a good probability that if you had the exact same lineup in 2024, there's a good chance that most return back to their career norms and this is a top 5-10 offense. Of course the likelihood this pitching staff repeats is probably really low. That's baseball unfortunately.

 

What’s so weird about this year is that the FO made a huge shake up in the teams make up breaking up the barrio last off season. Focussed on OF D. That was a big deal. The OF D clearly got better as did the rotation and pen. But the O has never clicked. Could they have been less optimistic on the projections? Could they have been more aggressive at the deadline given the O struggles they saw all season? Fair discussions. Do they have to do another major shake up or do they feel like they can roll with this basic group sans Chappy, backfill the roster and go again. Will be interesting. Tough to assume pitching will repeat 2023.

[Brownie19]

Springer is an interesting case. The guy has been a f***ing stud with the bat his entire career and even while battling through multiple injuries in 2022 was still great. This year he's seemingly been as healthy as ever. Legs seem fresh with a career high in SBs, but his power disappeared. His max EV is as good as ever, but the average EV is down. Most of his other metrics like chase rate, whiff%, etc. are very good (better than 2021, 2022). He could very well be declining, but I don't expect him to fall off a cliff. I expect the projection systems will peg him as a 120-125 wRC+ hitter and a 3-4 WAR corner OFer in 2024.

[Laika]

Springer is an interesting case. The guy has been a f***ing stud with the bat his entire career and even while battling through multiple injuries in 2022 was still great. This year he's seemingly been as healthy as ever. Legs seem fresh with a career high in SBs, but his power disappeared. His max EV is as good as ever, but the average EV is down. Most of his other metrics like chase rate, whiff%, etc. are very good (better than 2021, 2022). He could very well be declining, but I don't expect him to fall off a cliff. I expect the projection systems will peg him as a 120-125 wRC+ hitter and a 3-4 WAR corner OFer in 2024.

 

career high contact%

 

power production has collapsed

 

lowest pull% he has had since 2019

 

I don't know what exactly is going on but one clear trend is the dreaded f***ing CF flyout. It's a disease for the Blue Jays. A f***ing disease.

 

Springer hasn't ALWAYS been a huge pull hitter, but he was from 2020-2022. This year he is kind of back to his younger batted ball profile where he is only pulling it 40% of the time. From 2020-2022 he was more of a 49% pull hitter.

 

There is something rotten in the water, man. I dunno if it's coaching or if it has to do with the ballpark changes. But so many of these guys are like... f***ing trying to hit CF warning track flyouts.

[Masterbather]

career high contact%

 

power production has collapsed

 

lowest pull% he has had since 2019

 

I don't know what exactly is going on but one clear trend is the dreaded f***ing CF flyout. It's a disease for the Blue Jays. A f***ing disease.

 

Springer hasn't ALWAYS been a huge pull hitter, but he was from 2020-2022. This year he is kind of back to his younger batted ball profile where he is only pulling it 40% of the time. From 2020-2022 he was more of a 49% pull hitter.

 

There is something rotten in the water, man. I dunno if it's coaching or if it has to do with the ballpark changes. But so many of these guys are like... f***ing trying to hit CF warning track flyouts.

 

Springer had surgery on his elbow. I understand it wasn't a major surgery but surgery is surgery, I don't care how minor they make it seem and I fully expected it to affect his bat in the first half and for him to come on strong in the second half. That's pretty much what we're seeing.

[Stangstag]

What really sucks is that there's a good probability that if you had the exact same lineup in 2024, there's a good chance that most return back to their career norms and this is a top 5-10 offense. Of course the likelihood this pitching staff repeats is probably really low. That's baseball unfortunately.

 

Im not convinced its just luck anymore. Its a conscious effort by the coaching staff, players, etc. to hit the ball the CF more, shorten up with 2 strikes, hit to contact, and none of it is working because it’s costing us homeruns and doubles.

[Spanky99]

It really does feel like its just not gonna happen this year. Especially when you see situations like last night in the 9th. Bases loaded no out with our best guys up and we only manage 1 run.

 

I haven't gone there yet, and likely won't as long as their in it, but these losses lately have been hard. Gut wrenching s***.

[Stangstag]

Springer is an interesting case. The guy has been a f***ing stud with the bat his entire career and even while battling through multiple injuries in 2022 was still great. This year he's seemingly been as healthy as ever. Legs seem fresh with a career high in SBs, but his power disappeared. His max EV is as good as ever, but the average EV is down. Most of his other metrics like chase rate, whiff%, etc. are very good (better than 2021, 2022). He could very well be declining, but I don't expect him to fall off a cliff. I expect the projection systems will peg him as a 120-125 wRC+ hitter and a 3-4 WAR corner OFer in 2024.

 

EVERYONE on the team had their power disappear this year. We might not have a single guy hit more than 25 homers when we should have like 4-5 guys above that number.

 

Im not convinced its “bad luck”. Its an approach issue or possibly to new RC dimensions have suppressed flyballs more than we realize. And this is a major flyball offense.

[Stangstag]

career high contact%

 

power production has collapsed

 

lowest pull% he has had since 2019

 

I don't know what exactly is going on but one clear trend is the dreaded f***ing CF flyout. It's a disease for the Blue Jays. A f***ing disease.

 

Springer hasn't ALWAYS been a huge pull hitter, but he was from 2020-2022. This year he is kind of back to his younger batted ball profile where he is only pulling it 40% of the time. From 2020-2022 he was more of a 49% pull hitter.

 

There is something rotten in the water, man. I dunno if it's coaching or if it has to do with the ballpark changes. But so many of these guys are like... f***ing trying to hit CF warning track flyouts.

 

I’ll yell it to the mountaintops, its not bad luck. Its clear as day when you see the entire team hitting to CF more and the power numbers down across the board.

 

The coaching staff (whether their instructions came from the front office or not) completely f***ed with the offense this season

[Spanky99]

EVERYONE on the team had their power disappear this year. We might not have a single guy hit more than 25 homers when we should have like 4-5 guys above that number.

 

Im not convinced its “bad luck”. Its an approach issue or possibly to new RC dimensions have suppressed flyballs more than we realize. And this is a major flyball offense.

 

I'm pretty sure that's updated, not sure though. We've seemingly been a mid-league park from what I remember.

[DigitalRock]

EVERYONE on the team had their power disappear this year. We might not have a single guy hit more than 25 homers when we should have like 4-5 guys above that number.

 

Im not convinced its “bad luck”. Its an approach issue or possibly to new RC dimensions have suppressed flyballs more than we realize. And this is a major flyball offense.

The team wide power drop is bizarre and frustrating

[Brownie19]

I’ll yell it to the mountaintops, its not bad luck. Its clear as day when you see the entire team hitting to CF more and the power numbers down across the board.

 

The coaching staff (whether their instructions came from the front office or not) completely f***ed with the offense this season

 

I find it hard to believe that after multiple seasons as a top 5 offense in baseball, that the same coaching staff went into the season and asked the entire team to change their hitting philosophy AFTER the league implemented rules to reduce the impact of shifts. That makes zero sense IMO.

 

The only explanation would be some believe or stats that indicate the "pull da ball" philosophy doesn't work in the playoffs when you are facing elite pitching almost every night - where sacrificing some power and use an 'all fields' approach with fewer K's will yield better results. I'm just not sure that's true at all, so I can't imagine that's the direction they are giving the players.

 

Perhaps it is the diamond? Our SLG% at home is only .404, while it's .426 on the road this year. ISO is .164 on the road and only .152 at home. I have no idea if those types of splits are significant or common though.

[JFD]

If it's the diamond causing the power outage, how do we explain Babe's 75 HR pace? Is this guy a future hall of famer?

[DonJays]

I’ll yell it to the mountaintops, its not bad luck. Its clear as day when you see the entire team hitting to CF more and the power numbers down across the board.

 

The coaching staff (whether their instructions came from the front office or not) completely f***ed with the offense this season

And I’ll also yell it to the mountaintops, you are wrong, wrong, wrong!

[Laika]

I find it hard to believe that after multiple seasons as a top 5 offense in baseball, that the same coaching staff went into the season and asked the entire team to change their hitting philosophy AFTER the league implemented rules to reduce the impact of shifts. That makes zero sense IMO.

 

The only explanation would be some believe or stats that indicate the "pull da ball" philosophy doesn't work in the playoffs when you are facing elite pitching almost every night - where sacrificing some power and use an 'all fields' approach with fewer K's will yield better results. I'm just not sure that's true at all, so I can't imagine that's the direction they are giving the players.

 

Perhaps it is the diamond? Our SLG% at home is only .404, while it's .426 on the road this year. ISO is .164 on the road and only .152 at home. I have no idea if those types of splits are significant or common though.

 

That sounds like a small difference, but when you consider that most teams would be noticably better AT HOME then even minor differences in the other direction might be very significant.

 

I do lean towards the idea that they somehow turned the park into a pitcher's paradise. It's not the dimensions though. Maybe something to do with how the error flows now.

[Spanky99]

That sounds like a small difference, but when you consider that most teams would be noticably better AT HOME then even minor differences in the other direction might be very significant.

 

I do lean towards the idea that they somehow turned the park into a pitcher's paradise. It's not the dimensions though. Maybe something to do with how the error flows now.

 

No more tunnel to CF maybe.

[Terminator]

I’ll yell it to the mountaintops, its not bad luck. Its clear as day when you see the entire team hitting to CF more and the power numbers down across the board.

 

The coaching staff (whether their instructions came from the front office or not) completely f***ed with the offense this season

 

The flyouts to CF seem to be a thing but how do you explain the hitting with RISP?

 

They are 12th overall by various batting metrics but drop to 25th or so with RISP. I can't figure out how to find the numbers without runners in scoring position but I bet it's Top 8 or better.

 

How does a Top 10 hitting team suddenly turn into one of the worst when there are runners on base?

 

That has to be luck?

[John_Havok]

The flyouts to CF seem to be a thing but how do you explain the hitting with RISP?

 

They are 12th overall by various batting metrics but drop to 25th or so with RISP. I can't figure out how to find the numbers without runners in scoring position but I bet it's Top 8 or better.

 

How does a Top 10 hitting team suddenly turn into one of the worst when there are runners on base?

 

That has to be luck?

Didn’t Buck say they’re hitting over .300 with RISP in august?

[Terminator]

Didn’t Buck say they’re hitting over .300 with RISP in august?

 

Yeah we went from 28th down near the A's and Royals and are up to 25th now.

[John_Havok]

Yeah we went from 28th down near the A's and Royals and are up to 25th now.

 

Yeah. Point is, hitting with RISP isn’t something that is consistent. Look at the Rangers for the flip side of the RISP fluctuations right now.