Gdt. Blue jays @ orioles 3/3

[Terminator]

Vlad put 3 balls into play today.

 

116.2 MPH exit velo with a 9 degree launch angle for a single.

 

112.1 MPH exit velo with a 9 degree launch angle for a single.

 

107.6 MPH exit velo with a -11 degree launch angle for a ground out.

 

These were the 1st, 2nd and 4th hardest hit balls of the game (Hays' homer was 109). Danny Jansen's homers were 105.3 and 102 but because he hit the ball in the air they went out.

[Ray]

They really need to RE-evaluate Guillermo Martinez

 

He has failed this team miserably as a Hitting Coach

 

They should fire him first before firing Schneider and Atkins stepping down

 

Jays offense is 5th in the MLB by wrC+, but they're 22nd in wRC+ with RISP.

 

Clearly Guillermo Martinez is telling them to suck with RISP, which is known to have variation and noise. Like yeah, they suck at hitting with RISP, but they also sucked last year until the last couple months and it ended up normalizing. It's frustrating, but unless you truly believe hitting with RISP is skill based (it's not), firing the hitting coach will do nothing. The issue with scoring runs are a combination of some of our hitters not performing as expected (Vlad, Springer, Kirk), and general randomness.

[jaysblue]

Birds have to stop going to Yimi after he sits down and Biggio was screwed right over in this game, a double with a man on and a HR, that flippin hurts.

 

Whoever picked Biggio today in the HR contest should still get the points.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Vlad put 3 balls into play today.

 

116.2 MPH exit velo with a 9 degree launch angle for a single.

 

112.1 MPH exit velo with a 9 degree launch angle for a single.

 

107.6 MPH exit velo with a -11 degree launch angle for a ground out.

 

These were the 1st, 2nd and 4th hardest hit balls of the game (Hays' homer was 109). Danny Jansen's homers were 105.3 and 102 but because he hit the ball in the air they went out.

 

Sadly it seems as though they'll never get Vladdy's launch angle fixed.

 

Guy should be winning home run titles.

[Terminator]

Today's game sucked. We had 8 hits, 2 homers and the exit velocity leaderboard was littered with Jays players but only 2 runs. I think we had 11 of the top 16 EVs today.

 

Need to labor through these next two series and then the schedule softens up where we can hopefully go on a big run.

[Ray]

Vlad put 3 balls into play today.

 

116.2 MPH exit velo with a 9 degree launch angle for a single.

 

112.1 MPH exit velo with a 9 degree launch angle for a single.

 

107.6 MPH exit velo with a -11 degree launch angle for a ground out.

 

These were the 1st, 2nd and 4th hardest hit balls of the game (Hays' homer was 109). Danny Jansen's homers were 105.3 and 102 but because he hit the ball in the air they went out.

 

Vlad's launch angle this year is the same as it was in his almost MVP season. Literally almost all his expected stats are close to what they were during 2021, except it's not translating into his actual stats.

 

His issues this year are around horrible pitch selection and recently more whiffs/K's. He's getting pitches to hit, but just not completely capitalizing on them. It's painful to watch him underperform right now (relatively speaking), but I would not be surprised if he turns it around in the 2nd half and is one of the best hitters in baseball.

[Jays333]

7-17 against the division. Just embarrassing. We blow. Bottom 10 in the whole MLB with RISP. Vladdy can f*** off. Garcia can f*** off not sure why he still gets leverage. Atkins needs to be punted into the sun immediately. Also the Angels could pass us in the wildcard race with a win tonight.

[JaysAllMighty]

Sadly it seems as though they'll never get Vladdy's launch angle fixed.

 

Guy should be winning home run titles.

 

very frustrating to watch

[Terminator]

Vlad's launch angle this year is the same as it was in his almost MVP season. Literally almost all his expected stats are close to what they were during 2021, except it's not translating into his actual stats.

 

His issues this year are around horrible pitch selection and recently more whiffs/K's. He's getting pitches to hit, but just not completely capitalizing on them. It's painful to watch him underperform right now (relatively speaking), but I would not be surprised if he turns it around in the 2nd half and is one of the best hitters in baseball.

 

Yeah I've been saying the same thing. Just getting frustrating to watch this continue for what feels like weeks now after his good start.

[Ray]

7-17 against the division. Just embarrassing. We blow. Bottom 10 in the whole MLB with RISP. Vladdy can f*** off. Garcia can f*** off not sure why he still gets leverage. Atkins needs to be punted into the sun immediately. Also the Angels could pass us in the wildcard race with a win tonight.

 

It's pretty grim. At this point you basically have to win almost every series + get some sweeps against AL East teams to even reach .500 against the division (not impossible, but they've dug themselves a hole).

[Stangstag]

Yeah I've been saying the same thing. Just getting frustrating to watch this continue for what feels like weeks now after his good start.

 

Eerily similar to 2022 so far

 

April 2023: 149 wRC+ (5 homers)

May 2023: 95 wRC+ (3 homers)

 

April 2022: 148 wRC+ (6 homers)

May 2022: 97 wRC+ (3 homers)

 

Actually kinda remarkable how close it is. Seems like the people that were saying 2022 is more like the real Vlad might be correct

[jaysblue]

We need to send Joseph Gordan Levitt to watch every Jays games!

[Spanky99]

Jays offense is 5th in the MLB by wrC+, but they're 22nd in wRC+ with RISP.

 

Clearly Guillermo Martinez is telling them to suck with RISP, which is known to have variation and noise. Like yeah, they suck at hitting with RISP, but they also sucked last year until the last couple months and it ended up normalizing. It's frustrating, but unless you truly believe hitting with RISP is skill based (it's not), firing the hitting coach will do nothing. The issue with scoring runs are a combination of some of our hitters not performing as expected (Vlad, Springer, Kirk), and general randomness.

 

This.

[jaysblue]

Today's game sucked. We had 8 hits, 2 homers and the exit velocity leaderboard was littered with Jays players but only 2 runs. I think we had 11 of the top 16 EVs today.

 

Need to labor through these next two series and then the schedule softens up where we can hopefully go on a big run.

 

I'm not really sure the schedule softens up that much.

 

- Marlins have been playing great baseball as of late and sit at 38-31. If the Jays run into Alcantara, Perez or Luzardo, won't be easy.

 

- A's have played better but should walk over them hopefully at the Rogers Centre.

 

- Giants aren't a pushover. Lineup isn't that bad. Hope the Jays could avoid Webb and Cobb.

 

- Red Sox, White Sox and Tigers at the beginning of July should be all winnable series. Ideally you hope the Jays could sweep one of those series and win 2 of 3 for the other two.

[John_Havok]

Jays offense is 5th in the MLB by wrC+, but they're 22nd in wRC+ with RISP.

 

Clearly Guillermo Martinez is telling them to suck with RISP, which is known to have variation and noise. Like yeah, they suck at hitting with RISP, but they also sucked last year until the last couple months and it ended up normalizing. It's frustrating, but unless you truly believe hitting with RISP is skill based (it's not), firing the hitting coach will do nothing. The issue with scoring runs are a combination of some of our hitters not performing as expected (Vlad, Springer, Kirk), and general randomness.

 

Chances are this is 100% right. I'd fire him anways just for the shock value to the players that it might make them pull their heads out of their asses sooner. It would be completely unfair and likely unwarranted, but as any coach of any type in any sport will tell you, it's only a matter of time until they get fired.

[Terminator]

I'm not really sure the schedule softens up that much.

 

- Marlins have been playing great baseball as of late and sit at 38-31. If the Jays run into Alcantara, Perez or Luzardo, won't be easy.

 

- A's have played better but should walk over them hopefully at the Rogers Centre.

 

- Giants aren't a pushover. Lineup isn't that bad. Hope the Jays could avoid Webb and Cobb.

 

- Red Sox, White Sox and Tigers at the beginning of July should be all winnable series. Ideally you hope the Jays could sweep one of those series and win 2 of 3 for the other two.

 

From May 9th through June 19th we have been going through the gauntlet. Not a single game against a team that is currently under .500 for a 6 week stretch.

 

We close out the first half with home series against the A's, Giants and Red Sox and then road series with the White Sox and Tigers. Yeah the Sox and Giants aren't bad but that's two series against .500-ish teams and 3 series against dogshit teams. With the majority of the games at home. It definitely softens up.

 

Frankly from now until the end of the season the schedule softens up a ton. There are several sites out there that use varying SOS metrics but most of them have us playing one of the harder ones so far and one of the easier ones the rest of the way.

[Omar]

I missed this one but from the comments it seems Schneider worked his magic again.

 

In terms of the hitting coach, specifically relating to Vladdys approach; is it possible that Vladdy may not be a very coach-able player? Ie. maybe he doesn’t listen and thinks he knows better.

[jaysblue]

From May 9th through June 19th we have been going through the gauntlet. Not a single game against a team that is currently under .500 for a 6 week stretch.

 

We close out the first half with home series against the A's, Giants and Red Sox and then road series with the White Sox and Tigers. Yeah the Sox and Giants aren't bad but that's two series against .500-ish teams and 3 series against dogshit teams. With the majority of the games at home. It definitely softens up.

 

Frankly from now until the end of the season the schedule softens up a ton. There are several sites out there that use varying SOS metrics but most of them have us playing one of the harder ones so far and one of the easier ones the rest of the way.

 

After the All-Star Break:

 

July:

- D'Backs

- Padres

- Mariners

- Dodgers

- Angels

 

August:

- Orioles

- Red Sox

- Guardians

- Cubs

- Phillies

- Reds

- Orioles

- Guardians

- Nationals

 

September:

- Rockies

- A's

- Royals

- Rangers

- Red Sox

- Yankees

- Rays

- Yankees

- Rays

 

Right after the All-Star Break, it doesn't seem like its that soft. D'Backs lead the NL West, Padres are decent, Dodgers won't be easy, Mariners can be a tossup, and Angels aren't a walkover.

 

The schedule at the end of August/early September has a nice stretch against the Nats, A's, Rockies and Royals. Hopefully they Jays could win 10 of 12 during that stretch. Though we've seen in the past how some teams can play spoilers and give teams a hard time.

 

End of September against the Yankees/Rays won't be easy.

 

Sure the schedule softens a bit but at the end of the day this team needs to start playing better or else it doesn't matter how soft the schedule gets.

[John_Havok]

I missed this one but from the comments it seems Schneider worked his magic again.

 

In terms of the hitting coach, specifically relating to Vladdys approach; is it possible that Vladdy may not be a very coach-able player? Ie. maybe he doesn’t listen and thinks he knows better.

 

Certainly possible. Its gotta be hard to coach players in any sport with such insanely good basic skills though, like, they've never really had to think about their approaches and just succeed based on raw talents alone. Now they're tasting failure and don't understand how it can possibly happen because it's never happened before. Plus, how many times have we head coaches say "just stick with it, dont get down on the process, the results will come as long as you're consistent...etc etc"

 

I hate it when i hear that BS cliche. That, and practice makes perfect. No, practice doesnt make perfect, practicing perfectly makes perfect. If you practice wrong, you dont get anywhere. If you don't adjust to what pitchers are doing to you, you don't get better or even maintain your results. Whatever the mental block is in Vlad's brain about swinging at garbage and not being ready to punish mistakes has to be overcome. He's too good to be hitting like this.

[Omar]

Certainly possible. Its gotta be hard to coach players in any sport with such insanely good basic skills though, like, they've never really had to think about their approaches and just succeed based on raw talents alone. Now they're tasting failure and don't understand how it can possibly happen because it's never happened before. Plus, how many times have we head coaches say "just stick with it, dont get down on the process, the results will come as long as you're consistent...etc etc"

 

I hate it when i hear that BS cliche. That, and practice makes perfect. No, practice doesnt make perfect, practicing perfectly makes perfect. If you practice wrong, you dont get anywhere. If you don't adjust to what pitchers are doing to you, you don't get better or even maintain your results. Whatever the mental block is in Vlad's brain about swinging at garbage and not being ready to punish mistakes has to be overcome. He's too good to be hitting like this.

 

This is exactly the scenario I'm referring to as it relates to Vladdy. He has been getting by on his natural talent alone up until a few years ago. MLB is a different kettle of fish. Perhaps his success in 2021 got to his head. He may have a million dollar bat, but he may also have a ten cent brain. Who knows?

[BigCecil]

I missed this one but from the comments it seems Schneider worked his magic again.

 

In terms of the hitting coach, specifically relating to Vladdys approach; is it possible that Vladdy may not be a very coach-able player? Ie. maybe he doesn’t listen and thinks he knows better.

 

His hitting is a bit like his base running. He always thinks he can make it and he cant. He thinks he can hit any pitch, and he can't.

 

Almost nobody on this planet hits the ball harder when he is locked in on good pitches to mash.

[Omar]

His hitting is a bit like his base running. He always thinks he can make it and he cant. He thinks he can hit any pitch, and he can't.

 

Almost nobody on this planet hits the ball harder when he is locked in on good pitches to mash.

 

He may think he can hit balls out of the zone like his old man. He can't. He isn't as good but I think he thinks he is.

[max silver]

He may think he can hit balls out of the zone like his old man. He can't. He isn't as good but I think he thinks he is.

 

Vlad Jr. very well may end up being better than his old man was, it's far too early to be making any proclamations one way or the other.

[Terminator]

After the All-Star Break:

 

July:

- D'Backs

- Padres

- Mariners

- Dodgers

- Angels

 

August:

- Orioles

- Red Sox

- Guardians

- Cubs

- Phillies

- Reds

- Orioles

- Guardians

- Nationals

 

September:

- Rockies

- A's

- Royals

- Rangers

- Red Sox

- Yankees

- Rays

- Yankees

- Rays

 

Right after the All-Star Break, it doesn't seem like its that soft. D'Backs lead the NL West, Padres are decent, Dodgers won't be easy, Mariners can be a tossup, and Angels aren't a walkover.

 

The schedule at the end of August/early September has a nice stretch against the Nats, A's, Rockies and Royals. Hopefully they Jays could win 10 of 12 during that stretch. Though we've seen in the past how some teams can play spoilers and give teams a hard time.

 

End of September against the Yankees/Rays won't be easy.

 

Sure the schedule softens a bit but at the end of the day this team needs to start playing better or else it doesn't matter how soft the schedule gets.

 

okay

[Spanky99]

I missed this one but from the comments it seems Schneider worked his magic again.

 

In terms of the hitting coach, specifically relating to Vladdys approach; is it possible that Vladdy may not be a very coach-able player? Ie. maybe he doesn’t listen and thinks he knows better.

 

Well, he calls in his uncle, lol. He's certainly not listening to Gabby Martinez and it's certainly between the ears, far too many poor swing decisions... all you guys are right, but he's that one tweak away from taking off, frustrating, no doubt.

Edited June 15, 2023 by Spanky99

[BigCecil]

Vlad Jr. very well may end up being better than his old man was, it's far too early to be making any proclamations one way or the other.

 

True. Impossible to know with Jr's hit tool where he ends up comparatively, but most of "better" has to come from that.

 

Sr. early on had more BsR and D value than Jr. Crazy that he ended up with a career .380 OBP and a 10% K rate with all that he swung at.

 

Vlad Sr. broke down health wise and after age 31 was downhill fast. Vlad Jr. has a challenging body type to keep weight off as he ages.

 

Vlad Sr WAR from age 23-27 seasons:

 

6.7

4.5

6.2

4.8

7.1

[Spanky99]

True. Impossible to know with Jr's hit tool where he ends up comparatively, but most of "better" has to come from that.

 

Sr. early on had more BsR and D value than Jr. Crazy that he ended up with a career .380 OBP and a 10% K rate with all that he swung at.

 

Vlad Sr. broke down health wise and after age 31 was downhill fast. Vlad Jr. has a challenging body type to keep weight off as he ages.

 

Vlad Sr WAR from age 23-27 seasons:

 

6.7

4.5

6.2

4.8

7.1

 

Only '21 he's looked in comparison to his dad. Going to be tough to do as a 1B, he does have it in him. Now, let us pray he figures this s*** out between his ears.

[max silver]

True. Impossible to know with Jr's hit tool where he ends up comparatively, but most of "better" has to come from that.

 

Sr. early on had more BsR and D value than Jr. Crazy that he ended up with a career .380 OBP and a 10% K rate with all that he swung at.

 

Vlad Sr. broke down health wise and after age 31 was downhill fast. Vlad Jr. has a challenging body type to keep weight off as he ages.

 

Vlad Sr WAR from age 23-27 seasons:

 

6.7

4.5

6.2

4.8

7.1

 

Vlad Jr. will have a hard time matching his father's WAR totals given the fact that he plays first base but he has a shot to put up even better offensive numbers over his career.

[jaysblue]

okay

 

So tell me how this schedule softens up a ton? Yes they play some more sub .500 teams that have been awful, but there are still decent teams that could give the Jays a tough time and it's not going to be easy. Overall, this team has to play better at the end of the day.

[max silver]

So tell me how this schedule softens up a ton? Yes they play some more sub .500 teams that have been awful, but there are still decent teams that could give the Jays a tough time and it's not going to be easy. Overall, this team has to play better at the end of the day.

 

The Jays have played really good baseball outside of their own division, so I see no reason they can't continue to do so. They'll need to clean up the divisional play at some point for sure.