Offense 2023: Better, same, or worse than 2022

[Ray]

You have Springer/Vladdy/Bo/Varsho who have aggressive approaches and will look to do damage at the top of the order. Then you have a higher OBP profiles in Kirk/Jansen/Belt/Chapman who still have really good pop. You've got legitimate speedy guys in Merrifield, Kiermaier, & Biggio and have enough options to play matchups with them if they're on the bench. The defense barring Bichette should be exceptional. We legitimately might have the best OF defense in the majors next year. Baserunning will be much improved.

 

I dunno, this might be the most versatile Jays lineup I've seen in my years of watching (started in 2005). Our overall team wRC+ might end up being slightly down, but I think we end up scoring the same amount of runs, if not more. We're gonna be aggressive taking the extra bases & stealing.

[Spanky99]

I'm not really sure that he does. As I mentioned in the above post, all of Belt's at-bats will come at the expense of players who were really good last year. It's not like you just take Bradley Jr's plate appearances and assign them to Belt.

 

I never said how much I expected the offense to drop off, as that wasn't asked in the poll. I do agree, however, that the overall team is better.

 

Well, you said you were confident that the wRC+ will below last year? I was of the impression you think it will easily be below last years number. I believe the bar is pretty close. A little regression either way. Meh...

[Spanky99]

You have Springer/Vladdy/Bo/Varsho who have aggressive approaches and will look to do damage at the top of the order. Then you have a higher OBP profiles in Kirk/Jansen/Belt/Chapman who still have really good pop. You've got legitimate speedy guys in Merrifield, Kiermaier, & Biggio and have enough options to play matchups with them if they're on the bench. The defense barring Bichette should be exceptional. We legitimately might have the best OF defense in the majors next year. Baserunning will be much improved.

 

I dunno, this might be the most versatile Jays lineup I've seen in my years of watching (started in 2005). Our overall team wRC+ might end up being slightly down, but I think we end up scoring the same amount of runs, if not more. We're gonna be aggressive taking the extra bases & stealing.

 

Also Varsho, Springer and Bo's speed as well. This team will be exciting to watch.

[Grant77]

Well, you said you were confident that the wRC+ will below last year? I was of the impression you think it will easily be below last years number. I believe the bar is pretty close. A little regression either way. Meh...

 

I'm confident enough to take an even money bet that it will be lower, but I wouldn't say it will be 'easily lower'.

[G-Snarls]

A little over 1/4 of the way through the season

 

It's down

[John_Havok]

Jays end of season wRC+ in 2022 - 117

Currently in 2023 - 105

 

Definitely worse so far. Yet the aspects of the offense that are dragging it down are just drastic and hopefully unsustained underperformance of several regulars and bench bats.

 

(2023 wrc+ / career wRC+ / ZIPS projected wRC+ ROS)

 

Kirk (93/120/124), Jansen (69/95/100), Biggio(13/100/92), Espinal (31/96/88), and Springer (69/132/118) are all way way off their career norms and projections.

 

Belt is slightly off, but coming off injury like his not sure his (108/124/122) would be considered drastic underperformance, but maybe just the sign that he won't be him anymore.

Varsho (86/98/116), slightly off but not drastically.

 

Overperformers are Bichette (150/126/124) Chappy (153/121/126) KK (153/99/96) Vlad (149/135/141)

 

Merrrifield (87/102/87) is about where you think he would be.

 

 

The biggest culprits are simply Springer, Jansen and Kirk combined (since they're getting way more PAs than the next two) and then the collossal black hole that has been Biggio and Espinal combined.

Edited May 19, 2023 by John_Havok

[G-Snarls]

[Stangstag]

Jays end of season wRC+ in 2022 - 117

Currently in 2023 - 105

 

Definitely worse so far. Yet the aspects of the offense that are dragging it down are just drastic and hopefully unsustained underperformance of several regulars and bench bats.

 

(2023 wrc+ / career wRC+ / ZIPS projected wRC+ ROS)

 

Kirk (93/120/124), Jansen (69/95/100), Biggio(13/100/92), Espinal (31/96/88), and Springer (69/132/118) are all way way off their career norms and projections.

 

Belt is slightly off, but coming off injury like his not sure his (108/124/122) would be considered drastic underperformance, but maybe just the sign that he won't be him anymore.

Varsho (86/98/116), slightly off but not drastically.

Overperformers are Bichette (150/126/124) Chappy (153/121/126) KK (153/99/96) Vlad (149/135/141)

 

Merrrifield (87/102/87) is about where you think he would be.

 

 

The biggest culprits are simply Springer, Jansen and Kirk combined (since they're getting way more PAs than the next two) and then the collossal black hole that has been Biggio and Espinal combined.

 

Uhhhh are you claiming 30 percentage points off on projections is "slightly off"?? Varsho is in the Jansen/Kirk territory rn

[Stangstag]

[img]https://i.imgur.com/S4Skk4p.png[/img]

 

Springer with negative WAR is upsetting to see

[John_Havok]

Uhhhh are you claiming 30 percentage points off on projections is "slightly off"?? Varsho is in the Jansen/Kirk territory rn

 

More like the projections with Varsho have a higher error bar - he's never hit higher than 106 wRC+... so comparing his actual vs his career seems more appropriate in his case since his ROS projections dont really add up to me.

 

Varsho is in a bit of a dip, the rest are in the grand f***ing canyon.

 

Kirk could probably be given some slack there too given he hasnt even hit 1000 PAs, but his major league track record is much much better than Varsho's with the bat that his current mark being where it is is far more surprising

[max silver]

Jays end of season wRC+ in 2022 - 117

Currently in 2023 - 105

 

Definitely worse so far. Yet the aspects of the offense that are dragging it down are just drastic and hopefully unsustained underperformance of several regulars and bench bats.

 

(2023 wrc+ / career wRC+ / ZIPS projected wRC+ ROS)

 

Kirk (93/120/124), Jansen (69/95/100), Biggio(13/100/92), Espinal (31/96/88), and Springer (69/132/118) are all way way off their career norms and projections.

 

Belt is slightly off, but coming off injury like his not sure his (108/124/122) would be considered drastic underperformance, but maybe just the sign that he won't be him anymore.

Varsho (86/98/116), slightly off but not drastically.

 

Overperformers are Bichette (150/126/124) Chappy (153/121/126) KK (153/99/96) Vlad (149/135/141)

 

Merrrifield (87/102/87) is about where you think he would be.

 

 

The biggest culprits are simply Springer, Jansen and Kirk combined (since they're getting way more PAs than the next two) and then the collossal black hole that has been Biggio and Espinal combined.

 

The team had an even worse offensive start last season, and I recall it was during the Cardinals series in May where the team's offensive output changed dramatically. Up to May 22 the team had an abysmal 92 WRC+ which ranked 18th overall. It's weird to think about but arguably this year's team is actually off to a much better overall start given the solid start of top of the lineup aside from Springer.

[G-Snarls]

The team had an even worse offensive start last season, and I recall it was during the Cardinals series in May where the team's offensive output changed dramatically. Up to May 22 the team had an abysmal 92 WRC+ which ranked 18th overall. It's weird to think about but arguably this year's team is actually off to a much better overall start given the solid start of top of the lineup aside from Springer.

 

This year, Chapman Bo and Vladdy carried the team for 6 weeks to start

 

Need to spread it around more cause Chapman has cooled off and our 25M leadoff hitter continues to get on base less than 30% of the time

 

FTR I think Springer will be fine at some point but hopefully sooner than later cause it's killing us

[John_Havok]

The team had an even worse offensive start last season, and I recall it was during the Cardinals series in May where the team's offensive output changed dramatically. Up to May 22 the team had an abysmal 92 WRC+ which ranked 18th overall. It's weird to think about but arguably this year's team is actually off to a much better overall start given the solid start of top of the lineup aside from Springer.

 

Yeah true. Even with basic expected regressions to the mean both up and down from where everyone is now, the offense should be fine.

[Spanky99]

5th in MLB, 3rd in the AL... wRC+ at 111 to last season's 117... it'll end up about the same.

[Krylian]

Similar offence

 

Sound about right.

[Spanky99]

[Eat My Shatkins]

Vladdy with 0.7 fWAR 60+ games into the season.

 

Come on dude, be better.

 

He needs a Bo-level hot streak this summer.

[bluejaysinternNo5]

Vladdy with 0.7 fWAR 60+ games into the season.

 

Come on dude, be better.

 

He needs a Bo-level hot streak this summer.

 

Definitely not what you want to see. He needs to be more selective and wait for his pitch, a pitch he knows he can do damage on (and then not miss it). Easier said than done of course but yeah he needs to get it going.

[BTS]

 

Kevin Kiermaier is such a stud

[Jonn]

 

Why is Espinal even being rostered.

[jaysblue]

Kevin Kiermaier is such a stud

 

I wouldn't oppose to bringing him back if the term and AAV is fair.

[jaysblue]

Why is Espinal even being rostered.

 

Haven't you realized over the past 2-3 seasons under this FO, they like to ignore the bench and bullpen.

[max silver]

Why is Espinal even being rostered.

 

He's basically the only available backup shortstop on the roster.

[jaysblue]

Vladdy pretty much has turned into a Lyle Overbay first baseman. A .280/.350/450 line is pretty disappointing when he's capable of being a .300/.400/.550 type of bat.

[Spanky99]

Kevin Kiermaier is such a stud

 

The regression is coming, lol... fantastic season thus far.

[Solaxys]

Vladdy pretty much has turned into a Lyle Overbay first baseman. A .280/.350/450 line is pretty disappointing when he's capable of being a .300/.400/.550 type of bat.

 

[Spanky99]

Haven't you realized over the past 2-3 seasons under this FO, they like to ignore the bench and bullpen.

 

Once upon a time you were happy,

 

I voted better.

 

The lineup is way more balanced now than it was last season. A solid mix of guys who can make contact, have power, take a walk and some speed. Like Havok said above, the lineup will be more consistent and won't go in a huge slump and then get red hot for 2-3 series. So I don't think they'll be prone to long funks as they were last season/ Their roster depth is greatly improved so even if an injury or two simultaneously, they will be able to get by and be competitive.

[Brownie19]

Haven't you realized over the past 2-3 seasons under this FO, they like to ignore the bench and bullpen.

 

2023 is the deepest bench and bullpen this team has had in 20+ years.

[jaysblue]

The regression is coming, lol... fantastic season thus far.

 

Offensively for sure, but he still holds great value because of his defensive abilities.

[jaysblue]

Once upon a time you were happy,

 

Yeah unfortunately a lot of guys on this roster have turned into pumpkins.