General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[jaysblue]

At worst he's Kole Calhoun plus 2 extra WAR every year for superior D and baserunning.

 

But, I think there is more potential. Could figure some s*** out and pull off a Curtis Granderson career or something like it. A random 40 hr season and then gets some old man hitting skills as he ages.

 

Yeah Kole Calhoun is a good comparison if we're talking worst case.

 

Granderson is a great comp as well. Might sneak in a random 40 HR season somewhere for sure.

[Dick_Pole]

Same. I really hope Varsho takes his meaty cock and shoves it right up that haters raw brown star, sans lube - on his way to another 4.5+ WAR season. That, combined with a WC birth that turns into winning multiple playoff rounds (maybe even the WS) would simply be sublime.

 

The Blue Jays need him to reach 5 WAR if they are going to be a 90 win team that makes the playoffs this year, all else being equal with the current roster.

[Brownie19]

The Blue Jays need him to reach 5 WAR if they are going to be a 90 win team that makes the playoffs this year, all else being equal with the current roster.

 

Offseason isn't over yet and I'm not sure that's true - but thanks for your opinion Dick.

[John_Havok]

The Blue Jays need him to reach 5 WAR if they are going to be a 90 win team that makes the playoffs this year, all else being equal with the current roster.

 

Maybe, but why would you assume all else is the same? Is there not the chance that other guys also get back to their projections?

[L54]

Ya DICK, don’t you know Brownie is the authority round these parts?

[Stangstag]

The Blue Jays need him to reach 5 WAR if they are going to be a 90 win team that makes the playoffs this year, all else being equal with the current roster.

 

No they don’t lol

[Frenchsoup]

Varsh is a sick bunter

[Frenchsoup]

Can't let the Yanks get Stro....that's a dynamic top 4 with Cole Nestor Stro Will Warren and Rodon is an expensive question mark. Haven't scouted Chase Hampton but I'm hearing good things...could be Yankee hype though.

[glory]

Jays and Jansen have settled at $5.2m according to Robert Murray.

[BigCecil]

Jays and Jansen have settled at $5.2m according to Robert Murray.

 

Saw that. Jansen seems to be a reasonable extension candidate this year. 4/45 ish?

 

He is a 2+ WAR C if he can stay on the field, all day long.

[Stangstag]

Saw that. Jansen seems to be a reasonable extension candidate this year. 4/45 ish?

 

He is a 2+ WAR C if he can stay on the field, all day long.

 

He’s a 2 WAR catcher even with the injuries. If he stays healthy he’s easily a 3+ WAR guy but that’s a huge IF. At this point he gets the glass/injury prone label. Something between 4/40 and 4/50 would still be fair IMO.

[BatFlip]

He’s a 2 WAR catcher even with the injuries. If he stays healthy he’s easily a 3+ WAR guy but that’s a huge IF. At this point he gets the glass/injury prone label. Something between 4/40 and 4/50 would still be fair IMO.

 

That seems about right. A fragile catcher heading into his age 29 season that has 3 WAR, 120 wRC+ upside but can't stay off the DL.

 

I really like Jansen and it seems like he's managed the pitching staff relationships quite well. That would give a few more seasons of the Kirk/Jansen tandem.

[BigCecil]

He’s a 2 WAR catcher even with the injuries. If he stays healthy he’s easily a 3+ WAR guy but that’s a huge IF. At this point he gets the glass/injury prone label. Something between 4/40 and 4/50 would still be fair IMO.

 

Not really fair is it the IL label for him? Some of his injuries have been HBP etc that can happen to any player although because he tries to get the head out front and yank pitches to LF, he is more prone to getting hit by inside stuff.

 

Guy had a 141 wRC+ in 250 PAs in 2022. Thats crazy good. Conteras 5/87.

[John_Havok]

Not really fair is it the IL label for him? Some of his injuries have been HBP etc that can happen to any player although because he tries to get the head out front and yank pitches to LF, he is more prone to getting hit by inside stuff.

 

Guy had a 141 wRC+ in 250 PAs in 2022. Thats crazy good.

 

I think it’s the hamstrings and obliques that pop up every year for Jansen that most worry about, in addition to the freak injuries that catchers are far more prone to. Catchers just get beat up, they get hit by more balls than (insert your own joke here), so to also have a guy who has the more “strain” type injuries, it’s hard for me to want to extend a guy for 4 years.

 

I’d be inclined to sign him for two or three max with a few options, and incentives for games played.

[Stangstag]

Not really fair is it the IL label for him? Some of his injuries have been HBP etc that can happen to any player although because he tries to get the head out front and yank pitches to LF, he is more prone to getting hit by inside stuff.

 

Guy had a 141 wRC+ in 250 PAs in 2022. Thats crazy good.

 

The way I see it, is some guys get hit by pitches in the same spot and they’re fine. Seems like every time Jansen gets hit in the hand its a broken bone.

 

Some guys have weaker bones, some guys have weaker muscles and are more prone to strains. Genetics. I’d say Jansen falls into both camps.

 

 

So yes, he firmly gets the injury-prone label and i’d be comfortable making a bet he doesn’t play 100 games next year.

[Brownie19]

Ya DICK, don’t you know Brownie is the authority round these parts?

 

It's about f***ing time you took notice. Rumor has it that Term is polishing up my Assistant Sheriff badge as we speak.

[BigCecil]

He’s a 2 WAR catcher even with the injuries. If he stays healthy he’s easily a 3+ WAR guy but that’s a huge IF. At this point he gets the glass/injury prone label. Something between 4/40 and 4/50 would still be fair IMO.

 

I think it would be wise to give him a incentive laden contract for GP. As others have mentioned. 3 plus team option on 4 maybe. He still has upside and when he has been healthy he has very steady.

[glory]

It’s wild that in 8 years on the job there hasn’t been one extension given to a homegrown or developed talent. I think the only ones were given to Grichuk and Berrios, both acquired via trade when they were in their arb years close to free agency. That strategy would be somewhat understandable if they were churning out prospects at a high level to fill any vacancies internally but the farm system is lagging behind as well. It is hard to see the direction here.

[Brownie19]

It’s wild that in 8 years on the job there hasn’t been one extension given to a homegrown or developed talent. I think the only ones were given to Grichuk and Berrios, both acquired via trade when they were in their arb years close to free agency. That strategy would be somewhat understandable if they were churning out prospects at a high level to fill any vacancies internally but the farm system is lagging behind as well. It is hard to see the direction here.

 

They did buyout Bo's last arb years, but that's not really an extension. I mean - who would have you have wanted them to have extended? I'm pretty happy they haven't extended Vlad, Kirk, Manoah or Espinal. The only one I think you'd consider it with would be Bo - and it seems very clear he has no interest in an extension. I guess you could extend Jansen and/or Romano, but both come with risk (depending on the duration/price).

 

I know this will shock most, but I actually think the FO deserves credit here for not extending players too early.

[glory]

They did buyout Bo's last arb years, but that's not really an extension. I mean - who would have you have wanted them to have extended? I'm pretty happy they haven't extended Vlad, Kirk, Manoah or Espinal. The only one I think you'd consider it with would be Bo - and it seems very clear he has no interest in an extension. I guess you could extend Jansen and/or Romano, but both come with risk (depending on the duration/price).

 

I know this will shock most, but I actually think the FO deserves credit here for not extending players too early.

 

Bichette doesn’t want one so he’s out. Vlad wants one but may or may not be worth giving one to, it really depends on the years/term. Jansen I think should have been done a year ago. Kirk and Manoah I would avoid for obvious reasons. Biggio is a clear no. Teoscar you could have argued between 2019-21 was a candidate.

 

Yeah, not a Braves situation by any means in terms of talent, so it’s likely not a bad thing overall. But the main point stands, with no extensions to young players and a bottom half of the league farm system, I’m not really sure what the direction is.

[Brownie19]

Bichette doesn’t want one so he’s out. Vlad wants one but may or may not be worth giving one to, it really depends on the years/term. Jansen I think should have been done a year ago. Kirk and Manoah I would avoid for obvious reasons. Biggio is a clear no. Teoscar you could have argued between 2019-21 was a candidate.

 

Yeah, not a Braves situation by any means in terms of talent, so it’s likely not a bad thing overall. But the main point stands, with no extensions to young players and a bottom half of the league farm system, I’m not really sure what the direction is.

 

I'm pretty sure the direction was to complete for and/or make the playoffs from 2020-2025. To compete beyond that, we're probably going to need to 'hit' on more prospects who are ready to contribute by 2026-2028. Ricky, Orelvis, Nimmala, Barger, Barriera, Watts-Brown, Bonilla, Roden. There are some high upside players in there and while the margin for error is getting tighter for sure, it's not completely hopeless. If we move Vlad or Bo before they hit free agency, we might be able to increase our chances (although that may also decrease our ability to win in 2025).

Edited January 11, 2024 by Brownie19

[Frenchsoup]

Yeah I would be trying to extend Biggio, Varsho and Jansen

[Krylian]

Yeah I would be trying to extend Biggio, Varsho and Jansen

 

Is that your core?

[Frenchsoup]

Yeah but I'd make a s*** ton of trades and signings if I had the shohei money

[Frenchsoup]

Adames comes to a deal with the brewers for 12.25million for this season...I think he puts up 6 War on that team

[Brownie19]

Here's a snippet from a recent Fangraph's article.

 

• Kevin Kiermaier wants to hit for more power.

 

One thing to watch for? Kiermaier wants to hit for more power, flipping the script after he joked one year ago that his goal was to hit zero home runs and be the best No. 9 hitter in baseball. He believes — and you can see the belief is earnest — that he has another level to unlock.

 

“I’m as motivated as I’ve ever been right now,” Kiermaier said, leaning in to the camera. “I can never sit still. I’ve got this fire in me.”

 

I also found these interesting:

 

• The Dodgers will go with a six-man (or six-day) rotation next year …

 

Whether the Dodgers call it a six-man rotation will depend, most likely, on whether they add another starting pitcher this winter. But it will likely function as a six-man rotation, in terms of affording pitchers extra rest between starts.

…

 

I suspect that will continue in 2024, given:

 

1. Yamamoto’s transition.

 

2. Tyler Glasnow’s injury history.

 

3. Walker Buehler’s return from elbow surgery

 

4. Miller’s youth.

 

So even if the Dodgers don’t officially name six starters, they’ll likely shuttle players like Emmet Sheehan, Michael Grove, Gavin Stone and Landon Knack through the rotation, with some bullpen games and Ryan Yarbrough usage thrown in for good measure.

 

Apparently the Dodgers may hold Buehler out of the rotation to start the year. They want him in October, not April/May.

[Krylian]

I love Kiermaier's confidence, but why in your mid-30's do you still have a level to unlock? Shouldn't you be unlocking your levels ASAP and not saving them?

[wilko]

I love Kiermaier's confidence, but why in your mid-30's do you still have a level to unlock? Shouldn't you be unlocking your levels ASAP and not saving them?

 

It doesn't make much sense. Just be the best #9 hitter like last year. That's all we can hope for.

[Marew]

If he was decent when he wasn’t trying, excited to see how get he is if he tries. Could be that piece that puts us over the top. Discount ohtani.

[Brownie19]

It doesn't make much sense. Just be the best #9 hitter like last year. That's all we can hope for.

 

Just stay healthy! He's quite possibly the best defensive CF of all-time. We just need him on the field rocking a 95-105 wRC+ bat.