General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[L54]

Very good base running is clearly one of the factors that allowed the Cubs and Cincy to score a lot more runs than their wRC+ would suggest. Even if we are middle of the pack on the bases this year, it could have a tangible impact on how many runs we score. We finally fired that stupid f*** who was standing at 3rd base, sending runners when he shouldn't have. He alone probably cost us 10+ runs last year.

 

Texas and Houston are also at the bottom of the league in base running and they scored the 3rd and 5th most runs

[Laika]

I understand all of the roster criticisms but most of you sound like dorks with sports PTSD

 

1. The offense is not putrid. There was a differential between wRC+ (talent) and runs scored last year that was almost certainly due to a lot of bad luck. The fact that some key pieces project for offensive improvement should matter a lot. The Jays also have better position player depth MLB ready than they have in recent years.

 

2. The pitching depth could be better, sure, but you have to give the organization actual credit for keeping SPs healthy and for signing SPs with track records of health. They got lucky last year but they kind of planned to get lucky. Also, the RP depth with upside approaching the MLB level is real and should help cushion some injuries.

[Laika]

# of hitters who project for 2 or more WAR:

 

Blue Jays - 7

Yankees - 5

Rangers - 8

Rays - 5 (ignoring Franco)

Dodgers - 7

Braves - 6

Red Sox - 3

Orioles - 5

[Spanky99]

Yeah not exactly fair to judge the offseason as a failure just yet. But its not looking great and I don’t like these comments we’re hearing from Ross. Like he’s already trying to temper expectations.

 

Well, I'm hoping that was him just posturing, we'll see. They need 2 power bats minimum.

[BigCecil]

# of hitters who project for 2 or more WAR:

 

Blue Jays - 7

Yankees - 5

Rangers - 8

Rays - 5 (ignoring Franco)

Dodgers - 7

Braves - 6

Red Sox - 3

Orioles - 5

 

Plan the parade for non PTSD sufferers.

[Brownie19]

There are a lot of people in the industry who have been throwing cautionary red flags on Tiedemann since the fall

 

Are there any SP prospects who don't have red flags? I mean, people in the industry write s*** about everyone - because they need to create content. IMO, it's not reasonable to suggest the Jays better go find another 7th starter because there's a chance that Ricky T is Pearson and won't be of any use to the team this year. You simply can't cover yourself for every "what if" situation. If Gausman has a major injury this year AND Ricky T is an injury prone flop - the Jays are probably going to suck. That's life. Most teams would LOVE to be in the position we're in, with one of the top pitching prospects in baseball ready to go as your #6 or #7 starting pitcher. This is an ideal position for the team to be in - yet here we are with the wet blanket crowd, complaining the FO hasn't done more to improve the SP depth.

[Olerud363]

Tiedemann is an opener until proven otherwise. He's alot more Pearsony than people realize.

 

Totally agree with you.

 

Really surprised teams have not tried to figure out a 100 inning schedule for Pearson/Tiedemann types.

 

50 games maybe 1/2 of them starts 2 innings each, no back to backs.

 

It's weird that non-ace starters wouldn't like this too. These days starters are getting pulled before 5 innings so not eligible for a win. What's not to like if say a Manoah, performing at a level halfway between 2022 and 23, could cherry pick wins by coming in for 4 innings after Pearson/Tiedemann.

[MikeM3]

Crazy times when guys are talking themselves into a KK/IKF offseason now.

 

Any reasoned criticism is met with reddit level copium

[L54]

Are there any SP prospects who don't have red flags? I mean, people in the industry write s*** about everyone - because they need to create content. IMO, it's not reasonable to suggest the Jays better go find another 7th starter because there's a chance that Ricky T is Pearson and won't be of any use to the team this year. You simply can't cover yourself for every "what if" situation. If Gausman has a major injury this year AND Ricky T is an injury prone flop - the Jays are probably going to suck. That's life. Most teams would LOVE to be in the position we're in, with one of the top pitching prospects in baseball ready to go as your #6 or #7 starting pitcher. This is an ideal position for the team to be in - yet here we are with the wet blanket crowd, complaining the FO hasn't done more to improve the SP depth.

 

You say wet blanket I say blue coloured glasses

 

Don’t shoot the messenger, I listen to the opinions of people who evaluate for a living and am reiterating what the common theme seems to be

[max silver]

# of hitters who project for 2 or more WAR:

 

Blue Jays - 7

Yankees - 5

Rangers - 8

Rays - 5 (ignoring Franco)

Dodgers - 7

Braves - 6

Red Sox - 3

Orioles - 5

 

2 or more is fine and dandy but that's only an average major league regular. This comparison would be more useful if it were more granular with number of players projected above 3 WAR, 4 WAR etc.

[max silver]

Totally agree with you.

 

Really surprised teams have not tried to figure out a 100 inning schedule for Pearson/Tiedemann types.

 

50 games maybe 1/2 of them starts 2 innings each, no back to backs.

 

It's weird that non-ace starters wouldn't like this too. These days starters are getting pulled before 5 innings so not eligible for a win. What's not to like if say a Manoah, performing at a level halfway between 2022 and 23, could cherry pick wins by coming in for 4 innings after Pearson/Tiedemann.

 

I recall 100 innings as a multi inning reliever was the stated goal for Pearson in 2023 during last year's offseason. He eventually only reached about 60 innings total though.

[Brownie19]

Texas and Houston are also at the bottom of the league in base running and they scored the 3rd and 5th most runs

 

That's probably because their wRC+'s were 114 and 112, which was 4th and 5th in all of MLB, combined with better results with RISP? Maybe you're right - BsR doesn't make any difference? If that makes you feel good - then great. I think historically, you'll find that teams with the 7th highest wRC+ typically finish top 10 in runs scored. I think if you simulated last year 100 times, the 746 runs they scored would be right near the bottom in terms of actual results.

[MikeM3]

That's just incredibly pessimistic thinking. Tiedemann is going to continue being developed as a starter until he proves that he can't handle the position. Pearson has only avoided missing major time due to injury in only 2 of his 6 professional seasons up to this point. Perhaps Tiedemann eventually will prove to be injury prone in a similar fashion but it's far from a given at this point of his career.

 

It's very hard to go deep in games. Physically, mentally and stuff wise. You have to check all the boxes.

 

Until he does that, I don't see how someone can expect it. He can't even go 5 in AAA.

 

But I'm fine with him as a prospect. I do laugh when people are like, "oh but he's #8 behind a guy wr DFAd and a 1 inning RP Bowden Francis."

[Spanky99]

There are a lot of people in the industry who have been throwing cautionary red flags on Tiedemann since the fall

 

Why, after the end of season and AFL pitcher of the year leads me to believe this can't be right? His red flag have been injuries, kind of always has.

[max silver]

You say wet blanket I say blue coloured glasses

 

Don’t shoot the messenger, I listen to the opinions of people who evaluate for a living and am reiterating what the common theme seems to be

 

We shall see if Tiedemann proves to be an oft injured pitcher in the future or if the 2023 issues will be largely put behind him. It just seems a little premature to immediately conclude that he should be opening games moving forward based on a single season where he experienced some bicep/shoulder issues.

[Laika]

tinstaapp

[max silver]

It's very hard to go deep in games. Physically, mentally and stuff wise. You have to check all the boxes.

 

Until he does that, I don't see how someone can expect it. He can't even go 5 in AAA.

 

But I'm fine with him as a prospect. I do laugh when people are like, "oh but he's #8 behind a guy wr DFAd and a 1 inning RP Bowden Francis."

 

Is this a case where Tiedemann *can't* go 5 innings in AAA, or is this more of a case of the organization being ultra cautious with the build up of their prized pitching prospect to avoid reinjury?

[Laika]

Is this a case where Tiedemann *can't* go 5 innings in AAA, or is this more of a case of the organization being ultra cautious with the build up of their prized pitching prospect to avoid reinjury?

 

Mostly the latter

 

Their program for him did not ask him to go deep into games, then he got hurt anyway

[Brownie19]

Crazy times when guys are talking themselves into a KK/IKF offseason now.

 

Any reasoned criticism is met with reddit level copium

 

Dude - you're out here complaining about SP depth, suggesting Ricky T should be treated like an opener / Pearson. It's unrealistic to expect them to bring in better SP depth than Ricky T as your 6th or 7th starter. Not many teams in baseball have a stable of guys in the minors who are ML ready to go 6-7 innings a start. There have to be higher priorities than this.

[Spanky99]

It's very hard to go deep in games. Physically, mentally and stuff wise. You have to check all the boxes.

 

Until he does that, I don't see how someone can expect it. He can't even go 5 in AAA.

 

But I'm fine with him as a prospect. I do laugh when people are like, "oh but he's #8 behind a guy wr DFAd and a 1 inning RP Bowden Francis."

 

Tiedemann pitched 5 innings in 3 of his 4 starts in the AFL and was named the pitcher of the year, not bad.

[L54]

Why, after the end of season and AFL pitcher of the year leads me to believe this can't be right? His red flag have been injuries, kind of always has.

 

Release point, command +, velocity

[L54]

We shall see if Tiedemann proves to be an oft injured pitcher in the future or if the 2023 issues will be largely put behind him. It just seems a little premature to immediately conclude that he should be opening games moving forward based on a single season where he experienced some bicep/shoulder issues.

 

Nobody immediately concluded anything stop

[L54]

That's probably because their wRC+'s were 114 and 112, which was 4th and 5th in all of MLB, combined with better results with RISP? Maybe you're right - BsR doesn't make any difference? If that makes you feel good - then great. I think historically, you'll find that teams with the 7th highest wRC+ typically finish top 10 in runs scored. I think if you simulated last year 100 times, the 746 runs they scored would be right near the bottom in terms of actual results.

 

Brownie I never said it doesn’t make a difference but you’re the one projecting rounding bases better leading to a top 10 offense

[L54]

Crazy times when guys are talking themselves into a KK/IKF offseason now.

 

Any reasoned criticism is met with reddit level copium

 

From Ohtani to IKKKF

[Spanky99]

Release point, command +, velocity

 

Eno Sarris?

[L54]

Eno Sarris?

 

Ya Eno is the command + guy but he’s not the only person who I’ve heard have questions

[Laika]

Crazy times when guys are talking themselves into a KK/IKF offseason now.

 

Any reasoned criticism is met with reddit level copium

 

Because it's not really "reasoned criticism"

 

It's wilfull ignorance about the expected positive regressions, and a lot of swimming uphill against the realities of the free agent class

 

 

It's fair enough to say that going from almost signing Ohtani to signing IKF and KK is a huge letdown, and it is, but that's sort of just because the free agency class this offseason was Ohtani and then a bunch of garbage.

 

As far as regression goes... to tread water, Toronto offensively needs to replace like 7 batting runs above average from Chapman and 18 from Belt. So, 25 runs above average.

 

Vladdy alone would add 12 by simply regressing to his 2022 numbers. And his projections are better than that.

Kirk's projections remain close to his 2022 numbers, which would add about 20 runs in the same volume of playing time. We are already in the green here....

 

Varsho projects to improve (+15 runs)

Springer projects to improve (small amount probably).

There is no projected/expected decline from Bo or Jansen.

Even if KK is worse, it's not a huge needle mover. Minus 5 batting runs or whatever.

 

Does Toronto need to desperately give Cody Bellinger 8 years, or assume Yoan Moncada's entire contract, or whatever, to fix the offense???? Probably not unless you just don't believe in Steamer at all.

 

So I just don't know why you guys think you are wise wizards for complaining about them not bringing in a stud on offense, or pointing out that they don't have 10 viable SP options. Can't really make a time machine to address to latter and personally I don't want them to force the issue and do anything stupid to try to fix what may not be broke offensively.

 

Being said, I am sure they are still trying to add 1-2 pieces with pop from the FA pile and working the phones for a big trade.

[Spanky99]

Ya Eno is the command + guy but he’s not the only person who I’ve heard have questions

 

I've only heard health and durability questions, his command was do likely because of injury is what BA mentions. Ceiling is top of the rotation, I'm not worried, especially after that AFL showing. All spects have risks, meh...

[max silver]

Tiedemann is an opener until proven otherwise. He's alot more Pearsony than people realize.

 

Nobody immediately concluded anything stop

 

Could have fooled me.

[Marew]

Tired of the arguing. If we believe, we can win. Simple as that. Throw away all projections and believe. Jays fly together.

 

Also, welcome back Mr French soup from your ban