General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Jays24]

There is no way anyone should be upset at getting Bellinger for 8/160. We all know that's not gonna happen.

 

My guess all along is that he gets 7/175 or 9/200.

[Jimcanuck]

I know this wasn't asked to me but I would rather be punted in the nuts everyday of 2024 than giving Cody Bellinger 8 f***ing years at that number.

 

Well you are dumn because half the teams in MLB would sign Bellinger for 8/$160

[max silver]

I don't think that's right. Punting or not punting is a binary thing. Going 1-year only might shave 0-2 projected wins off their 2024 total, but that's not a punt. And every team also 'punts' in that way anyway: nobody seeks to maximize 2024 wins at every position at all cost. Josh Hader is out there. Many good teams won't even offer him a deal. That will shave 1-2 wins off their 2024 projection, but nobody refers to that kind of decision as a punt of the season.

 

The A's are punting the season. The Jays preferring an 89-win projection with KK instead of a 90-win projection with Bellinger isn't a punt of 2024.

 

I think the Jays with Bellinger vs Kiermaier would receive more than a single win bump. Re-signing Kiermaier means that Varsho isn't spending full time in center field, and I think this alone costs the team another win at minimum, and potentially as many as 2 full wins given Varsho's relative value in center field defensively vs playing the bulk of his innings in left field again. It would be a tremendous waste of a guy who is potentially MLB's best outfield defender to have him spend another season in a corner outfield spot.

 

Kiermaier has a 1.1 win projection vs the 2.4 win projection for Bellinger, but unlike Kiermaier who's projection seems very reasonable I think Bellinger has a very good shot to beat his projection. He provided value commensurate to a 5 win player when you prorate his time to a full season of play. It seems unlikely he will be able to completely recreate the success on the field, but let's say he beats his projection to a very reasonable degree and produces a 3 win season compared to the single win season for Kiermaier. Now the split from Bellinger vs Kiermaier is suddenly 2 wins. Add that to the 1-2 wins from playing Varsho in center field for a full season and the team receives a 2 win increase in wins on the lower end, with a really easy path to enjoy a 4 win or more increase in wins between the two players if Varsho continues to be a 4 win center fielder as he has been in his career up to this point and if Bellinger maintains even a modest increase in his offensive gains as compared to the modest projection.

[Frenchsoup]

I'd pay Immanaga 6 years 110milliion

[Frenchsoup]

Spanky I'd like to hear your opinion on the Yamamoto signing....12 years!!!! Thats nutty for a high Velo pitcher with not perfect mechanics. Really stupid signing by the Dodgers. Not a Glasnow guy. Not really a fane of 700 million dollar DH. So ya, the dodgers hurt themselves quite a bit imo.

[Frenchsoup]

The reason i ask you Spanks is because you thought the Jung Ho Lee signing was ludricrious....He's an all-star if healthy.

[Jonn]

Well you are dumn because half the teams in MLB would sign Bellinger for 8/$160

 

Cool let them do it.

[Terminator]

I’m surprised that the Bellinger fanboys are out in full force after the shellacking I gave you all last offseason. (Kevin Kiermaier outproduced Bellinger on a dollar per WAR basis)

[max silver]

I’m surprised that the Bellinger fanboys are out in full force after the shellacking I gave you all last offseason. (Kevin Kiermaier outproduced Bellinger on a dollar per WAR basis)

 

Yeah the Blue Jays obviously had no room for Bellinger's bat on last year's squad and Bellinger out WAR'ing everyone else on the team would have made Bo and Chapman jealous so that would have been bad for team dynamics. The best way to measure a baseball player's relative performance is dollars per WAR only so the fact that Bellinger basically doubled Kiermaier's WAR output for a really similar dollar per WAR basis is completely irrelevant.

[Terminator]

Yeah the Blue Jays obviously had no room for Bellinger's bat on last year's squad and Bellinger out WAR'ing everyone else on the team would have made Bo and Chapman jealous so that would have been bad for team dynamics. The best way to measure a baseball player's relative performance is dollars per WAR only so the fact that Bellinger basically doubled Kiermaier's WAR output for a really similar dollar per WAR basis is completely irrelevant.

 

Well in bWAR it wasn’t even close, Max. Plus we also got Belt with that money and then it was really a blow out in my favor.

 

The second the ink dries on a 8/160 deal for Bellinger it becomes an albatross contract. I’m pretty sure he doesn’t even like baseball.

 

Meanwhile, KK (the greatest fielder of this century) is just sitting there waiting for a 1 year deal (he’s also the best looking player this century).

[BTS]

he’s also the best looking player this century

 

I feel like this is something the haters and losers who want Bellinger don't account for. Having the most handsome player in professional sports has to be great for clubhouse morale.

[Jimcanuck]

So many guys here willing to settle for mediocrity.

[Abomination]

I feel like this is something the haters and losers who want Bellinger don't account for. Having the most handsome player in professional sports has to be great for clubhouse morale.

 

Dunno, seems like it caused Springer, Vladdy, and Varsho to lose their mojo.

[max silver]

Well in bWAR it wasn’t even close, Max. Plus we also got Belt with that money and then it was really a blow out in my favor.

 

The second the ink dries on a 8/160 deal for Bellinger it becomes an albatross contract. I’m pretty sure he doesn’t even like baseball.

 

Meanwhile, KK (the greatest fielder of this century) is just sitting there waiting for a 1 year deal (he’s also the best looking player this century).

 

Ah I see you are utilizing Baseball Reference which is basically the annoying little sister of baseball statistical sites. The Blue Jays were able to sign a pair of two win players so obviously there's no need to acquire 4 win players.

 

I don't know if there is a team in baseball that is willing to sign Bellinger for that kind of money. Unless Boras can convince the Angels or Rockies owners to foolishly waste their money on costly free agent additions for their lousy teams.

 

I'm far from an expert on the topic but I think Bellinger is a pretty good looking dude too so the female fans needn't be too upset if he were signed instead of Kiermaier.

[Jays24]

We can always sign Bellinger and KK and then go trade Varsho for a 3B. I'd just really hate losing KK, he was one of my favourite Jays in such a depressing season.

[L54]

Blue Jays should’ve signed Bellinger last offseason

 

Blue Jays shouldn’t give Bellinger 200M this offseason

 

Both answers are correct

[max silver]

We can always sign Bellinger and KK and then go trade Varsho for a 3B. I'd just really hate losing KK, he was one of my favourite Jays in such a depressing season.

 

I think the smart move would be to allow Kiermaier to sign with a different team. He had a season which largely mirrored that of Matt Chapman in that he produced a hot streak early on in the season where he produced the bulk of his value and cooled off dramatically the rest of the way. The early season hot streak saw him sitting at a 149 wRC+ after his first 129 plate appearances. This was built on a house of cards as it included a .389 BABIP despite producing nearly 55% ground balls and only a 16.5% line drive rate. His numbers for the rest of year predictably cratered after his BABIP normalized to .289 with a 84 wRC+ the rest of the way over his final 270 plate appearances.

[Terminator]

Does Fangraphs still use UZR to calculate the defense for WAR? And BR uses DRS?

 

We all know KK is the greatest fielder since Ozzie Smith. And that’s backed up by both DRS and OAA. But UZR thinks he’s merely good

 

Using UZR wouldn’t be the first time that Fangraphs engaged in questionable judgement. They did employ Sheryl Ring after all.

[Jays24]

I think the smart move would be to allow Kiermaier to sign with a different team. He had a season which largely mirrored that of Matt Chapman in that he produced a hot streak early on in the season where he produced the bulk of his value and cooled off dramatically the rest of the way. The early season hot streak saw him sitting at a 149 wRC+ after his first 129 plate appearances. This was built on a house of cards as it included a .389 BABIP despite producing nearly 55% ground balls and only a 16.5% line drive rate. His numbers for the rest of year predictably cratered after his BABIP normalized to .289 with a 84 wRC+ the rest of the way over his final 270 plate appearances.

 

I'm perfectly fine with getting his offensive production from the number 9 spot because he provides other elite attributes (defense and base running). I have an issue with giving up what we did to get Varsho to produce similar results. So if we can take him and move him for another position of need at 3B then that'd be my preference. All depends on what type of offers we can get here.

[max silver]

Does Fangraphs still use UZR to calculate the defense for WAR? And BR uses DRS?

 

We all know KK is the greatest fielder since Ozzie Smith. And that’s backed up by both DRS and OAA. But UZR thinks he’s merely good

 

Using UZR wouldn’t be the first time that Fangraphs engaged in questionable judgement. They did employ Sheryl Ring after all.

 

Fangraphs uses a mixture of UZR components and Statcast OAA converted to fielding runs for the range component for their defensive ratings.

[max silver]

I'm perfectly fine with getting his offensive production from the number 9 spot because he provides other elite attributes (defense and base running). I have an issue with giving up what we did to get Varsho to produce similar results. So if we can take him and move him for another position of need at 3B then that'd be my preference. All depends on what type of offers we can get here.

 

I suspect this would be a sizeable backwards move for the team swapping Varsho for Kiermaier as Varsho, and this would open up a long term hole in center field given Kiermaier's advancing age and the lack of good center field prospects in the minor league system.

[BatFlip]

I'm perfectly fine with getting his offensive production from the number 9 spot because he provides other elite attributes (defense and base running). I have an issue with giving up what we did to get Varsho to produce similar results. So if we can take him and move him for another position of need at 3B then that'd be my preference. All depends on what type of offers we can get here.

 

 

KK had a great bounce back season and really enjoyed watching him last year.... But he's turning 34 in April.

 

Varsho is highly likely to be a superior defensive center fielder over the next year or two and almost certain to be a vastly superior center fielder beyond that. I'm not sure people appreciate just how good Varsho is in the field... and he's 27.

[deanmike]

I think the smart move would be to allow Kiermaier to sign with a different team. He had a season which largely mirrored that of Matt Chapman in that he produced a hot streak early on in the season where he produced the bulk of his value and cooled off dramatically the rest of the way. The early season hot streak saw him sitting at a 149 wRC+ after his first 129 plate appearances. This was built on a house of cards as it included a .389 BABIP despite producing nearly 55% ground balls and only a 16.5% line drive rate. His numbers for the rest of year predictably cratered after his BABIP normalized to .289 with a 84 wRC+ the rest of the way over his final 270 plate appearances.

 

 

 

Sorry Max

[Spanky99]

The K man is back. Hmmm... meh...

[RobinThicc]

Springer probably DH's more next year, allowing Varsho to be in RF more often.

[Krylian]

So many guys here willing to settle for mediocrity.

 

As long as it's value mediocrity.

[Jays24]

KK had a great bounce back season and really enjoyed watching him last year.... But he's turning 34 in April.

 

Varsho is highly likely to be a superior defensive center fielder over the next year or two and almost certain to be a vastly superior center fielder beyond that. I'm not sure people appreciate just how good Varsho is in the field... and he's 27.

 

I suspect this would be a sizeable backwards move for the team swapping Varsho for Kiermaier as Varsho, and this would open up a long term hole in center field given Kiermaier's advancing age and the lack of good center field prospects in the minor league system.

 

So how do you guys feel about KK coming back now? Loll

[Spanky99]

The Belli Boys about to get bad news

 

Good call...

[Krylian]

The first domino of running it back has fallen.

[Jimcanuck]

As long as it's value mediocrity.

 

Save $20M to hopefully barely squeak into the playoffs.