General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Marew]

Who gives a s***?

 

Team does need players who might be able to hit well. If you are good with maybe making a wildcard just leave things as is, or take a risk.

[BatFlip]

Hmmm.

 

FG projections:

 

Varsho - 3.1 fWAR ($5.5m Arb)

Springer - 2.8 fWAR ($25m AAV)

Soler - 2.0 fWAR ($16m AAV)

Kiermaier - 1.1 fWAR ($10m AAV)

 

Oh yeah, and...

 

Bellinger - 2.4 fWAR ($24m AAV)

 

And we want to fire Varsho into the sun? Why?

 

 

Yeah, that's some real tomfoolery. Varsho has a lot of value in centerfield.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Team does need players who might be able to hit well. If you are good with maybe making a wildcard just leave things as is, or take a risk.

 

Ok?

 

But that doesn't have a f***ing thing to do with what I was refuting, and that is the ridiculous notion to "fire Varsho into the sun"

 

He still provides tons of value, and a solid bang for the buck even if he doesn't hit. Cutting him loose would be borderline retarded.

[Marew]

Ok?

 

But that doesn't have a f***ing thing to do with what I was refuting, and that is the ridiculous notion to "fire Varsho into the sun"

 

He still provides tons of value, and a solid bang for the buck even if he doesn't hit. Cutting him loose would be borderline retarded.

 

Nobody said that. I still would be happy to pay for the risk of having bellinger though. I haven’t noticed any anti varsho talk unless you’re referring to most game threads during the season.

[Frenchsoup]

Josh Flemming wouldn't be a bad add. Add a multi inning Lefty to the pen on the cheap.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Nobody said that. I still would be happy to pay for the risk of having bellinger though. I haven’t noticed any anti varsho talk unless you’re referring to most game threads during the season.

 

The poster I quoted literally said "Fire Varsho into the sun" word for word dude.

[Jays24]

The poster I quoted literally said "Fire Varsho into the sun" word for word dude.

 

Sign KK and trade Varsho for a top prospect and an allstar. We should be able to get that for Varsho since that's what we gave up right

[Marew]

Fine, don’t fire varsho into sun. But still get bellinger.

[Terminator]

I'll take KK and Duvall.

 

Then one of Hoskins, JDM, and Brantley to DH.

 

All 1-year deals to maintain flexibility for next offseason.

 

I like that plan. Just because the offense sucked last year doesn't mean we should go all in on offense and forsake defense. The offense is going to rebound basically with regression alone. Maintaining the defense in the OF makes sense to me. There is way more value there than in signing an offensive guy. And a guy like Duval can add some homers as a 4th OF without sacrificing defense too.

 

Use the DH spot to add a bat. I would add Joc Pederson to your list and I think he might be available on a 1 year deal.

 

Still no idea what to do at 3B.

 

But I think maintaining payroll flexibility would be wise. We can add a salary at the trade deadline or throw some money around next year. Kim or Bregman would be great targets for us.

[TheHurl]

Josh Flemming wouldn't be a bad add. Add a multi inning Lefty to the pen on the cheap.

 

Roster spots are at a premium. Losing a player from the 40 for a guy that projects for just barely above replacement just doesn't make sense. If he's coming in on a minor league deal (a likely possibility for Fleming) then fine. But chances are pitchers are not seeing Toronto as a good destination for a minor league deal as there isn't a clear path for a roster spot

[Frenchsoup]

That leftyness though, would be nice to get that 3rd lefty out of the pen. I also thought Fleming had a nice sinker and good command. Not sure the path his career has taken. But yeah he's fairly young, and I could easily take him over a guy like Jay Jackson who just depends on that slider and doesn't command his fastball well enough.

[Abomination]

Pick your preferred OF addition with these assumptions (Laika's assumptions):

 

The "jewel"...

 

Bellinger - projected 2.5 WAR - 7/$175M contract

 

The good bats with bad defense...

 

Soler - 2 WAR - 3/$66M

Hernandez - 1.7 WAR - 3/$60M

 

The old farts and fringe defenders...

 

Pham - 1 WAR - 1/$10M

Hicks - 0.9 WAR - 1/$9M

Pederson - 1.5 WAR - 2/$24M

Brantley - 1.2 WAR - 1/$12M

Duvall - 0.7 WAR - 1/$8M

Grichuk, Peralta, Grossman - 0.4 WAR - 1/$3M

 

Defensive specialists...

 

Kiermaier - 1.5 WAR - 1/$11M

Taylor - 1 WAR - 2/$15M

Bader - 1.5 WAR - 2/$22M

 

The reclamation projects...

 

Meadows - 0.7 WAR - 1/$5M

Gallo - 0.5 WAR - 1/$5M

 

IMO even though they are all boring additions the three defense-first guys are probably the most likely to actually help the team. I could see a lot of the other options, the old guys and bat first guys, being bad deals.... at least with KK, Bader, and Taylor, health permitting, you know they are going to put up positive production and help on D and the bases.

 

Bellinger for the outfield. Kyle Lewis could make a potentially interesting 4th outfielder to take a shot on.

[Rimar]

Yes, signing Soler, Turner and Taylor , short terms, instead of Bellinger, and Chapman and adding Hader, Hicks, can be smart moves. Jays will have really strong bullpen, so with Hicks, Mayza, Hader, Swanson, Green, Romano, if Jays are leading at 6 inning the chance win the game will be very high. A bit like Kansas City when they had strong defense players and elite bullpen. And if Bo and Vlad refuse sign long term, we can trade them next year. If want rebuild, we will have many pitching assets to trade for good prospects, and only Springer as bad contract.

[Masterbather]

I would put this offseason firmly in the "s*****" category at the moment.

[Jimcanuck]

Pick your preferred OF addition with these assumptions (Laika's assumptions):

 

The "jewel"...

 

Bellinger - projected 2.5 WAR - 7/$175M contract

 

The good bats with bad defense...

 

Soler - 2 WAR - 3/$66M

Hernandez - 1.7 WAR - 3/$60M

 

The old farts and fringe defenders...

 

Pham - 1 WAR - 1/$10M

Hicks - 0.9 WAR - 1/$9M

Pederson - 1.5 WAR - 2/$24M

Brantley - 1.2 WAR - 1/$12M

Duvall - 0.7 WAR - 1/$8M

Grichuk, Peralta, Grossman - 0.4 WAR - 1/$3M

 

Defensive specialists...

 

Kiermaier - 1.5 WAR - 1/$11M

Taylor - 1 WAR - 2/$15M

Bader - 1.5 WAR - 2/$22M

 

The reclamation projects...

 

Meadows - 0.7 WAR - 1/$5M

Gallo - 0.5 WAR - 1/$5M

 

IMO even though they are all boring additions the three defense-first guys are probably the most likely to actually help the team. I could see a lot of the other options, the old guys and bat first guys, being bad deals.... at least with KK, Bader, and Taylor, health permitting, you know they are going to put up positive production and help on D and the bases.

 

Jays have the cash, take the best of the bunch. No one should be surprised if Bellinger delivers between 4-5 WAR.

[jaysblue]

Payroll flexibility heading into next offseason would be my main focus so I would definitely target players to one-year deals which likely could be done. Blue Jays could still roll out a really solid team if they went that route, especially since we have to expect some of their main bats like Vladdy, Springer, Varsho, and Kirk to bounce back somewhat.

 

I would sign one of Hoskins or JDM to DH to a one-year contract. Give them between $18-22M.

 

I would sign two outfielders with one of them being a defensive specialist who could play CF whether it's KK, Bader or Taylor. Like Term said, can't just forget about defense and I agree. Sign someone to pair with one of them like Duvall, Pederson, Pham or Hicks.

 

Would take a look at a reclamation project like Meadows or Gallo if the Jays have the roster space.

 

As for 3B, I think the trade market is probably the best bet. Would either target someone like Polanco or Adames or Moncada. If the Jays decided to go with someone risky like Moncada or one of the other weaker FA's or someone in-house, wouldn't mind signing a vet bat at 3B like Evan Longoria who you could give 200-300 PA's as some depth.

 

If the Jays had to trade Kikuchi or Manoah for a 3B or for something else, would sign someone like Montas, Paxton, Alex Wood or Lauer to a one-year deal.

 

Would sign an arm like Jake Junis for rotation depth and as a BP arm if there is roster space. Would have to trade an arm like Richards most likely or just wouldn't bring in another bench bat like Longoria or someone so would carry 13 bats and 13 pitchers if Richards is kept.

 

______________________________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Lineup:

 

RF Springer

SS Bichette

1B Guerrero Jr.

DH Hoskins or Martinez

LF (Pederson or Hicks or Kiermaier or Meadows or Gallo with Duvall or Pham or Taylor or Bader)

C Jansen / Kirk

CF Varsho

3B Polanco or Moncada

2B Biggio / Schneider

 

*Lineup changes/flexibility depending on which bats are playing*

 

Bench:

 

C Kirk/Jansen

2B Biggio/Schneider

OF second half of the platoon who isn't starting

2B/SS Espinal

3B Longoria

 

=14 bats

 

Rotation:

 

Guasman

Berrios

Bassitt

Kikuchi or one FA SP

Manoah or one FA SP

 

Romano

Swanson

Mayza

Green

Garcia

Cabrera

Junis

 

=12 pitchers

Edited December 25, 2023 by jaysblue

[Jimcanuck]

Payroll flexibility heading into next offseason would be my main focus

 

i.e., punt 2024

[BTS]

i.e., punt 2024

 

Doesn't have to be. A lot of the 1-year options project the same as guys like Teo, Soler, and Bellinger who are going to get multiple years.

[jaysblue]

i.e., punt 2024

 

Haha nope.

 

What I meant by payroll flexibility heading into next offseason was in regards to not signing any long term deals that could hinder their spending on next years FA class and focus on one-year contracts instead.

 

I stated the Jays should sign Hoskins or JDM and give them $20M or w/e they want for one-year. I also said it would be nice if the Jays could trade for Polanco or Adames to play 3B as well. That's not punting the 2024 season.

[Krylian]

i.e., punt 2024

 

That can't be a serious option.

[Krylian]

Haha nope.

 

What I meant by payroll flexibility heading into next offseason was in regards to not signing any long term deals that could hinder their spending on next years FA class and focus on one-year contracts instead.

 

I stated the Jays should sign Hoskins or JDM and give them $20M or w/e they want for one-year. I also said it would be nice if the Jays could trade for Polanco or Adames to play 3B as well. That's not punting the 2024 season.

 

Payroll flexibility is what small market teams worry about. The big boys look to outspend their mistakes and issues...until there's a hard cap (if that ever comes to pass).

[jaysblue]

Doesn't have to be. A lot of the 1-year options project the same as guys like Teo, Soler, and Bellinger who are going to get multiple years.

 

Exactly. The Jays could likely sign one or two outfielders mentioned above on one-year deals and they provide the same value as one of Teo, Soler or Bellinger would.

[jaysblue]

Payroll flexibility is what small market teams worry about. The big boys look to outspend their mistakes and issues...until there's a hard cap (if that ever comes to pass).

 

If the Jays sign Bellinger for over $200M, Chapman for over $100M and Teo or Soler for $60M, do you think they'll have the financial flexibility next offseason or the offseason after to sign an elite player or arm?

[Jimcanuck]

Unlikely that players that can be had for a 1 year deal are on par with players that command multi year.

[Jimcanuck]

If the Jays sign Bellinger for over $200M, Chapman for over $100M and Teo or Soler for $60M, do you think they'll have the financial flexibility next offseason or the offseason after to sign an elite player or arm?

 

Yes

 

Were they in on Ohtani or not?

[jaysblue]

Unlikely that players that can be had for a 1 year deal are on par with players that command multi year.

 

Last season:

 

Bellinger: 4.1 WAR

Soler: 1.9 WAR

Hernandez: 1.8 WAR

 

Just one example:

Kiermaier 2.2 WAR + Adam Duvall 1.9 WAR = 4.1 WAR

[BTS]

Payroll flexibility is what small market teams worry about. The big boys look to outspend their mistakes and issues...until there's a hard cap (if that ever comes to pass).

 

Not really in a lot of cases though

 

Mets - operated like this for an offseason, failed miserably, sold and haven't added anything of note this offseason

Padres - operated like this for a year or two, failed, and are now poor as f*** and slashing payroll

Dodgers - up until this season they've actually been pretty careful about how they spend, not committing long term to pitchers, and even letting Seager walk

Braves and Cards clearly operate under payroll constraints

 

If there's a lesson to be learned from the best teams, it isn't to throw whatever it takes at Cody Bellinger because he's the best guy available. It's to be willing to spend, but only on the right player. If their analysis tells them that he's the guy then they should make the investment, but if they see the same red flags we do, there's nothing wrong with going short term and making sure that their 200M or whatever is going to the right player.

[Jimcanuck]

Not really in a lot of cases though

 

Mets - operated like this for an offseason, failed miserably, sold and haven't added anything of note this offseason

Padres - operated like this for a year or two, failed, and are now poor as f*** and slashing payroll

Dodgers - up until this season they've actually been pretty careful about how they spend, not committing long term to pitchers, and even letting Seager walk

Braves and Cards clearly operate under payroll constraints

 

If there's a lesson to be learned from the best teams, it isn't to throw whatever it takes at Cody Bellinger because he's the best guy available. It's to be willing to spend, but only on the right player. If their analysis tells them that he's the guy then they should make the investment, but if they see the same red flags we do, there's nothing wrong with going short term and making sure that their 200M or whatever is going to the right player.

 

Well exactly right, but this is not what Jaysblue is saying.

 

Also, you didn't mention the Rangers.

[BTS]

Last season:

 

Bellinger: 4.1 WAR

Soler: 1.9 WAR

Hernandez: 1.8 WAR

 

Just one example:

Kiermaier 2.2 WAR + Adam Duvall 1.9 WAR = 4.1 WAR

 

To further illustrate the point: Bellinger was a 1-year deal last offseason. Go find this year's version of that instead of paying sticker price for 2023's production.

[BTS]

Well exactly right, but this is not what Jaysblue is saying.

 

Also, you didn't mention the Rangers.

 

Not really sure what to make of the Rangers. I think they'll have a payroll within 5-10% of Toronto's next year because they haven't really shown an interest in FA's this offseason and will likely lose Garver (already gone) and Montgomery. They don't seem to be operating without constraints.