General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[max silver]

So much retrospect but if you could magically undo the Varsho trade and do that one instead you would LOL

 

Yeah I hear you for sure. I think it would have been really debatable to make that trade if it only meant two years of control for Ramirez, so we would still likely be arguing about how bad the trade was anyway if Moreno and/or Martinez ended up being stud players once reaching the majors. At any rate hopefully Varsho bounces back in 2024 and subsequent years so the acrimony can die down a little bit.

[Key22]

Generally true but, the Jays only need 1 ML arm, the depth they are looking for right now are guys that would sign minor league deals and come to ST to compete for the 5 spot. Trading Manoah doesn't really change that since Manoah is far from guaranteed to have the 5 spot locked down. Trading Manoah just means now you're still looking for a 4-5 and then multiple minor league deals.

 

It would make more sense to trade Kikuchi for a bat and then fill his spot with the free agent market given what's out there

 

I sort of look at free agency the way I look at the draft - sign the best player regardless of position. So to me, you push hard for Yamamoto if you think this guy could be a legit ace. Why? because we're losing Kikuchi next year - Manoah is no guarantee and possible injuries - Yes pitching is our strength but if Yamamoto is a generational talent (albeit big iff) then offence be damned - the Jays can be a playoff team with pitching and defence.

 

Then next offseason there may be more bats. Indeed, if you can land another ace now next offseason you become very enticing to free agent hitters. Even now - Toronto has to be enticing to Ohtani - none of that crappy rotation problem in LAA - the Jays have a legit front 4 and a very solid bullpen. If you're a hitter you have to like your chances to win with your bat in the line-up.

 

I don't know what the marketing of Ohtani would bring to the Jays - but it just seems to me that he would be "worth it" - the contract in terms of payroll might be huge but the gain from Jays memorabilia, tickets, TV coverage etc in Japan would seem to be big enough to counter that.

[Marew]

Pretty sure teams don’t make enough from merchandise as in profit to make overpaying for anyone worth it. The extra million or so people who may get into the team for a couple seasons and Japanese viewers maybe has more value.

 

Majority of the value will have to come from his play and if he gets injured or goes downhill after next 3 years its not good. Doesn’t matter if he makes his contract in WAR in 3 seasons if he sucks from 33-40.

[Stangstag]

Pretty sure teams don’t make enough from merchandise as in profit to make overpaying for anyone worth it. The extra million or so people who may get into the team for a couple seasons and Japanese viewers maybe has more value.

 

Majority of the value will have to come from his play and if he gets injured or goes downhill after next 3 years its not good. Doesn’t matter if he makes his contract in WAR in 3 seasons if he sucks from 33-40.

 

Merchandise is all revenue-shared between the 30 teams so yeah jersey sales and stuff isn’t really a factor when signing free agents.

[Key22]

Pretty sure teams don’t make enough from merchandise as in profit to make overpaying for anyone worth it. The extra million or so people who may get into the team for a couple seasons and Japanese viewers maybe has more value.

 

Majority of the value will have to come from his play and if he gets injured or goes downhill after next 3 years its not good. Doesn’t matter if he makes his contract in WAR in 3 seasons if he sucks from 33-40.

 

The problem with Ohtani for me is that if he gets hurt you lose, effectively two players. I would prefer to go get an ace pitcher and a big hitting DH. It probably costs less money. And it's less likely they both get hurt.

 

I would probably rather Yamamoto and even a guy like JD Martinez - you'll probably get your 35ish home runs and doubles etc and if Yamamoto is as good as they say - you have your ace. Guys like JD can be replaced in and out of that DH spot so you don't need any long-term commitment - 1 year 12 million - Yamamoto is probably $250/10 but you would still have a lot of money left over to fill another spot like 3B - so in reality 3 players for one Ohtani. And Ohtani isn't pitching next year.

 

So unless you can recoup the money somehow financially - I doubt we're in on him. You need a crazy rich owner to just go crazy and spend - suits from Rogers = fat chance.

[John_Havok]

I sort of look at free agency the way I look at the draft - sign the best player regardless of position. So to me, you push hard for Yamamoto if you think this guy could be a legit ace. Why? because we're losing Kikuchi next year - Manoah is no guarantee and possible injuries - Yes pitching is our strength but if Yamamoto is a generational talent (albeit big iff) then offence be damned - the Jays can be a playoff team with pitching and defence.

 

Then next offseason there may be more bats. Indeed, if you can land another ace now next offseason you become very enticing to free agent hitters. Even now - Toronto has to be enticing to Ohtani - none of that crappy rotation problem in LAA - the Jays have a legit front 4 and a very solid bullpen. If you're a hitter you have to like your chances to win with your bat in the line-up.

 

I don't know what the marketing of Ohtani would bring to the Jays - but it just seems to me that he would be "worth it" - the contract in terms of payroll might be huge but the gain from Jays memorabilia, tickets, TV coverage etc in Japan would seem to be big enough to counter that.

 

Yes, i had considered that the way it could work would be signing a great FA pitcher with Kikuchi then being the defacto 5...however that still leaves a problem with depth IF a trade of Manoah happens for a bat. Then you're still looking at scrap heap minor league deals where guys know they have virtually no shot at a major league job unless someone gets hurt. Not the worst situation to be in I guess, but when that's the case you don't get to pick and choose the signees, you get to pick the leftovers in January/Feb nobody else wanted.

 

I think in that kind of scenario it would make more sense to sign both a big name starter and another middling guy and trade Kikuchi for a bat while his value is higher, keeping Manoah to pitch at AAA alongside Tiedemann and whomever else they can scrounge up.

 

And yes Ohtani signing would be so huge. It's probably pipe dreaming, but the marketing he could be a part of for Rogers would be unparalleled

[Terminator]

The one thing I would like to know about Ohtani is how does Rogers owning its own sports channel affect the bottom line if we signed him.

 

If they signed Ohtani and doubled down on baseball coverage could they reap extra rewards compared to other teams? The guy is the biggest superstar the game has seen since Babe Ruth. Extra eyeballs on baseball also allows them to market their other coverage. It could raise the entire profile of the channel.

 

Or it could not, I don't know enough about TV marketing and ratings.

[Stangstag]

The one thing I would like to know about Ohtani is how does Rogers owning its own sports channel affect the bottom line if we signed him.

 

If they signed Ohtani and doubled down on baseball coverage could they reap extra rewards compared to other teams? The guy is the biggest superstar the game has seen since Babe Ruth. Extra eyeballs on baseball also allows them to market their other coverage. It could raise the entire profile of the channel.

 

Or it could not, I don't know enough about TV marketing and ratings.

 

Rogers constantly parrots the “we don’t make much money off TV revenue from the Jays” line, so who the f*** knows

[Spanky99]

With Toronto adding White and Macko to the 40 man by the deadline, that leaves us at 39, who do you guys think get non-tendered on Friday?

 

I'm going to roll with

 

Parsons

Heineman

Cimber

One of Clement/Espinal

Possibly Lopez.

 

Top 3 for sure.

Edited November 15, 2023 by Spanky99

[Terminator]

With Toronto adding White and Macko to the 40 man by the deadline, that leaves us at 39, who do you guys think get non-tendered on Friday?

 

I'm going to roll with

 

Parsons

Heineman

Cimber

One of Clement/Espinal

Possibly Lopez.

 

Top 3 for sure.

 

Is Friday the actual deadline for all of this stuff? Or is that just the deadline where you have to add guys to the roster to protect them from the Rule 5?

 

Macko is the only Rule 5 protection guy added so there might be no reason to dump anyone just yet.

 

Regardless, I think you are right on who is getting dumped (whether it happens Friday or later on):

-Top 3 are gone.

-Clement/Espinal is a tough call. Clement is cheap and has a lot of control left but he's out of options. Espinal is starting to make some actual money, but he does have options.

-Otto Lopez is probably a dead man walking since he's out of options.

-Brendon Little is probably on the radar of guys who could get dumped but he's safe for now.

[max silver]

The problem with Ohtani for me is that if he gets hurt you lose, effectively two players. I would prefer to go get an ace pitcher and a big hitting DH. It probably costs less money. And it's less likely they both get hurt.

 

I would probably rather Yamamoto and even a guy like JD Martinez - you'll probably get your 35ish home runs and doubles etc and if Yamamoto is as good as they say - you have your ace. Guys like JD can be replaced in and out of that DH spot so you don't need any long-term commitment - 1 year 12 million - Yamamoto is probably $250/10 but you would still have a lot of money left over to fill another spot like 3B - so in reality 3 players for one Ohtani. And Ohtani isn't pitching next year.

 

So unless you can recoup the money somehow financially - I doubt we're in on him. You need a crazy rich owner to just go crazy and spend - suits from Rogers = fat chance.

 

Going with a combination of players such as you suggest would make a good backup plan, but adding Ohtani should definitely be the primary goal as this allows the team to add an elite bat+top of the rotation pitcher vs only adding a very good bat+potential top of the rotation pitcher.

[G-Snarls]

[Spanky99]

Is Friday the actual deadline for all of this stuff? Or is that just the deadline where you have to add guys to the roster to protect them from the Rule 5?

 

Macko is the only Rule 5 protection guy added so there might be no reason to dump anyone just yet.

 

Regardless, I think you are right on who is getting dumped (whether it happens Friday or later on):

-Top 3 are gone.

-Clement/Espinal is a tough call. Clement is cheap and has a lot of control left but he's out of options. Espinal is starting to make some actual money, but he does have options.

-Otto Lopez is probably a dead man walking since he's out of options.

-Brendon Little is probably on the radar of guys who could get dumped but he's safe for now.

 

The first question was yesterday... the Tender/Non-tender deadline is Friday

[The Cats Ass]

Rogers constantly parrots the “we don’t make much money off TV revenue from the Jays” line, so who the f*** knows

 

Possible accounting reasons why they'd want to state it like this?

[Spanky99]

Possible accounting reasons why they'd want to state it like this?

 

Rogers are full of s***, they own the rights and get everything below market, look at the tv deals being handed out, Toronto doesn't have to do that.

 

They make killer money through tv revenue, lol.

[The Cats Ass]

The one thing I would like to know about Ohtani is how does Rogers owning its own sports channel affect the bottom line if we signed him.

 

If they signed Ohtani and doubled down on baseball coverage could they reap extra rewards compared to other teams? The guy is the biggest superstar the game has seen since Babe Ruth. Extra eyeballs on baseball also allows them to market their other coverage. It could raise the entire profile of the channel.

 

Or it could not, I don't know enough about TV marketing and ratings.

 

I think it would effect the bottom line somewhere on some spreadsheet within the Rogers Company. Which is why I wonder if there'd be some extra funds available for Ohtani and only Ohtani. So if we didn't sign him Atkin's wouldn't be able to use that money for a different signing.

[Terminator]

The first question was yesterday... the Tender/Non-tender deadline is Friday

 

Ok that makes sense.

 

I remember that the contracts weren't fully guaranteed if the player was released in ST. But I think that has changed now under the new CBA.

 

So there should be a lot of action tomorrow. Hopefully some bats hit the market.

[John_Havok]

Rogers constantly parrots the “we don’t make much money off TV revenue from the Jays” line, so who the f*** knows

 

That's just one of those statements that is technically true, but the devil is in the details. a ton of the income Rogers takes is undoubtedly related to the Jays and the massive exposure the Rogers brand gets from owning them and the network

[connorp]

That's just one of those statements that is technically true, but the devil is in the details. a ton of the income Rogers takes is undoubtedly related to the Jays and the massive exposure the Rogers brand gets from owning them and the network

 

Yeah I think it’s true of most sports deals that you don’t actually make any profit at all, but it’s about getting the eyes to your network to promote and carry all the other stuff. So you kind of have to look at it like what the tv deal would be worth if they didn’t have a network

[InsideThePark]

With Toronto adding White and Macko to the 40 man by the deadline, that leaves us at 39, who do you guys think get non-tendered on Friday?

 

I'm going to roll with

 

Parsons

Heineman

Cimber

One of Clement/Espinal

Possibly Lopez.

 

Top 3 for sure.

 

I don't really see them getting rid of any pre-arb guys until they need the roster spot. So while I expect Parsons and Little to be gone for sure at some point. I don't think they really care if it's before Friday. Heineman going would be whatever. Given how injury prone Jansen is and Kirk's body type you'll certainly need a 3rd catcher at some point in the season. If they don't care if it's Heineman or whatever other random guy you sign to a minor league deal to be added once needed they'll likely DFA him to make room at some point. If they prefer Heineman they may not. The arb guys are at a decision point. Cimber is a pretty clear non tender. I think Espinal and Richards stay but could be trade candidates.

 

Cimber non-tendered, and eventually Parsons and Little being DFA would get them to 36. Depending on how many FA they sign that might be enough but Heineman, Lopez, Lukes, and Clement are probably your other 4 options for DFA if you need more space.

[Marew]

 

Last thing we need is more nepotism on this team. Would be nice to have some players who were drafted for skill and not just as favours ala Mike pizza

[Ehjays]

 

This is the first of many tweets by this guy, he examines all baserunning by each player ad really breaks it down. Its quite a lengthy tweet feed for anyone intersted but he hammers home a big problem that is quite obvious.

[Spanky99]

 

This is the first of many tweets by this guy, he examines all baserunning by each player ad really breaks it down. Its quite a lengthy tweet feed for anyone intersted but he hammers home a big problem that is quite obvious.

 

Read that a few hours back, I like Black's content.

[Ehjays]

Read that a few hours back, I like Black's content.

 

Yeah for sure.

[Stangstag]

 

This is the first of many tweets by this guy, he examines all baserunning by each player ad really breaks it down. Its quite a lengthy tweet feed for anyone intersted but he hammers home a big problem that is quite obvious.

 

Jesus Christ thats a lot of base running mistakes. Need to tighten this s*** up

[John_Havok]

Jesus Christ thats a lot of base running mistakes. Need to tighten this s*** up

 

With Rivera gone the "mistakes" from 3rd have already been cut by 80%

[glory]

From Rosenthal’s latest article:

 

At least one rival executive views the Blue Jays as a sleeper for Shohei Ohtani.

 

The exec’s rationale is this: Any plans the Jays had to sign Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette to massive extensions might now be on hold. George Springer’s six-year, $150 million contract expires after 2026. The team remains in need of left-handed power.

 

The Jays could sell Toronto as an international city with a growing Japanese population. But one problem for them, and for that matter the Red Sox and Yankees, is that if Ohtani’s priority is winning, he might prefer a club outside the highly competitive AL East. And though the Jays’ home is the Rogers Centre, a ballpark with a retractable roof, teams in the West play in more reliable conditions than teams that play large chunks of games in the East. Ohtani, as he recovers from his second major elbow surgery, might fear disruptions in his schedule because of inclement weather.

 

It’s all speculation, and it will continue all offseason until Ohtani picks his new team.

[mphenhef]

From Rosenthal’s latest article:

 

 

I am convinced there is some fire with this Ohtani smoke. There are a lot of very expensive seats about to be launched with the new lower bowl renovations and Ohtani would be the perfect get to ensure those seats get sold.

[Krylian]

I am convinced there is some fire with this Ohtani smoke. There are a lot of very expensive seats about to be launched with the new lower bowl renovations and Ohtani would be the perfect get to ensure those seats get sold.

 

The fire is that the Jays would love to sign Ohtani.

 

The Jays have a very healthy payroll. I acknowledge that. The reality is that the largest contract they've ever handed out is Springer's $150M deal. The Jays have never been one of the big boys. Do you really see Rogers tripling that $150M Springer contract for anyone? I'll believe it when I see that they're really serious about playing in the big kids sandbox.

[Sorrow]

I know people will harp on about the Jays not willing to go big but they did offer 9/300 to Gerritt Cole before he became a Yankee. I think the interest in Ohtani is genuine and I don't know if the front Office views signing Guerrero or Bichette long term as an ideal option anymore.