General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[John_Havok]

He's likely been s***, but that's a good question, I've asked many times, no-one has the answer, is it UZR/DRS or OAA??? I mean we all know teams have their own internal analytics, but us plebs are left puzzled at it, all 3 fluctuate from year to year(just look at Vlad), do we merge them all together and come to that conclusion? I know I've been doing that.

 

Generally speaking, OAA will tell you why he sucks at UZR by telling you which plays they suck at. In Vlads case it's balls he has to charge and balls to his right. -4 and -6 OAA respectively. It's not perfect correlation, but it's a good place to start.

 

The question about OAA, is whether or not the balls he is missing is because of where he is being positioned or just because he misses them.

[Spanky99]

Because he really sucks at balls being hit to his non glove side this season and on ones he's had to charge in on. Glove side he's about average.

 

He's dead last at the moment, big man.

[John_Havok]

He's dead last at the moment, big man.

 

Yes, because of those two types of balls. OAA splits up where a guy makes his plays and misses his plays. Glove side he's at 0 outs above or below average. -4 on balls in, -6 on balls to his right, -1 on balls behind him.

[Spanky99]

Generally speaking, OAA will tell you why he sucks at UZR by telling you which plays they suck at. In Vlads case it's balls he has to charge and balls to his right. -4 and -6 OAA respectively. It's not perfect correlation, but it's a good place to start.

 

The question about OAA, is whether or not the balls he is missing is because of where he is being positioned or just because he misses them.

 

That's why if I feel like diving into it, I've come to just using the 3 as a PR ranking to give me a better idea on the season, at the very least.

[Spanky99]

Yes, because of those two types of balls. OAA splits up where a guy makes his plays and misses his plays. Glove side he's at 0 outs above or below average. -4 on balls in, -6 on balls to his right, -1 on balls behind him.

 

I know, but there's far too much noise going on, so you're telling me you rather use OAA specifically?

 

ETA: He's been very bad in all 3.

[harvey16]

I think the Jays need to seriously look at picking up a legit power bat at the deadline, even if it's just a rental for the rest of the year. Vladdy has no protection in the order right now and we don't have a legit #4 hitter. We've been cycling through Chapman, Belt, Varsho ect... in the number #4 spot and none of these guys are cutting it. Who is available at the deadline that could provide some protection for Vladdy?

[Spanky99]

I think the Jays need to seriously look at picking up a legit power bat at the deadline, even if it's just a rental for the rest of the year. Vladdy has no protection in the order right now and we don't have a legit #4 hitter. We've been cycling through Chapman, Belt, Varsho ect... in the number #4 spot and none of these guys are cutting it. Who is available at the deadline that could provide some protection for Vladdy?

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/07/top-50-deadline-trade-candidates-early-july-edition.html

[John_Havok]

I know, but there's far too much noise going on, so you're telling me you rather use OAA specifically?

 

No, when looking at defense I look at numerous things, but this year they all agree that Vlad has definitely not been good this year.

 

What the metrics cant really tell you is why. It's not like he's suddenly terrible at gloving balls, we can see he does just fine at picking balls in the dirt at 1b. The only thing I think might be different this year is how they have him positioned when there's a runner on 1st. I honestly cant remember if they had him play the same way last season or not. That, taken with perhaps an abnormally large number of balls hit in the areas his new positioning fails to cover could be the reason his numbers are low.

[Captain_Obvious]

Generally speaking, OAA will tell you why he sucks at UZR by telling you which plays they suck at. In Vlads case it's balls he has to charge and balls to his right. -4 and -6 OAA respectively. It's not perfect correlation, but it's a good place to start.

 

The question about OAA, is whether or not the balls he is missing is because of where he is being positioned or just because he misses them.

 

OAA accounts for player positioning for plays made. It uses play difficulty calculated by statcast which combines the batted ball data and the ground the player needed to cover in time.

[Spanky99]

No, when looking at defense I look at numerous things, but this year they all agree that Vlad has definitely not been good this year.

 

What the metrics cant really tell you is why. It's not like he's suddenly terrible at gloving balls, we can see he does just fine at picking balls in the dirt at 1b. The only thing I think might be different this year is how they have him positioned when there's a runner on 1st. I honestly cant remember if they had him play the same way last season or not. That, taken with perhaps an abnormally large number of balls hit in the areas his new positioning fails to cover could be the reason his numbers are low.

 

Mattingly has him doing that. I know the metrics aren't telling me why, that's why I'm asking and not 1 person on here has given a definitive answer, and it's obvious, no-one knows. Oh, what's the numerous things?

[bones10]

Jays are 6th and 8th in batting and pitching fWAR respectively, that is with some serious down years from Vlad, Manoah, Kirk and Varsho. Orioles are also outplaying their pythag record by 5 whole games, while the jays are only one game above where the should be. Could end up being a monster second half finish for the Jays kind of like 2021, but this time there is an extra wild card spot and they're far ahead of where that team was at this point in the year.

 

Look at the schedule end of August into September, Guardians, Nationals, Rockies, Athletics, and Royals. If they capitalize on that portion of the schedule like they should they'll be laughing.

[Olerud363]

I think the Jays need to seriously look at picking up a legit power bat at the deadline, even if it's just a rental for the rest of the year. Vladdy has no protection in the order right now and we don't have a legit #4 hitter. We've been cycling through Chapman, Belt, Varsho ect... in the number #4 spot and none of these guys are cutting it. Who is available at the deadline that could provide some protection for Vladdy?

 

Protection won't help Vladdy... maybe you could make that argument if he was walking a tonne that with someone to protect him they'd walk him less, however they have a pitching pattern that works for him and they'll keep it no matter what.

 

He hardly walks... and they aren't scared of him anyway. They know how to get him out and they will keep doing that no matter what.

 

Chapman is better than Vladdy right now anyway. Fine as your second big bat. If they thought 'protection' was important they could hit him 2nd then Bo, Belt, Chapman.

[John_Havok]

Mattingly has him doing that. I know the metrics aren't telling me why, that's why I'm asking and not 1 person on here has given a definitive answer, and it's obvious, no-one knows. Oh, what's the numerous things?

 

OAA, FRAA, DRS, UZR, my eyes. I typically find OAA to be the best single snapshot as it's based on statcast data and takes positioning, batted ball data, runner speed and other things into account.

[jaysblue]

I think the Jays need to seriously look at picking up a legit power bat at the deadline, even if it's just a rental for the rest of the year. Vladdy has no protection in the order right now and we don't have a legit #4 hitter. We've been cycling through Chapman, Belt, Varsho ect... in the number #4 spot and none of these guys are cutting it. Who is available at the deadline that could provide some protection for Vladdy?

 

Not many elite power bats available.

 

There are guys like Hunter Renfroe, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, or Tyler O’Neill who could be available. Not sure either would be a huge upgrade, but one of those bats would be a nice fit and add some pop from the right side.

 

I would love if Goldschmidt was available from the Cards. Under control in 2024 for $25M I believe. Obviously sucks that both him and Vlad play 1B, but his bat would be great for this lineup. Or if the Cards are willing to move Arenado, would solve the 3B position moving forward!

 

RF Spinger

SS Bichette

1B Guerrero

DH Goldschmidt or 3B Arenado

3B Chapman or DH Belt

LF Varsho

C Kirk/Jansen

CF Kiermier

2B Merrifield/Biggio

 

Adding Goldy or Arenado to the middle of the order would be sick!

[wamco]

Trump is a Jays fan??

 

What part do you disagree with?

[max silver]

Not many elite power bats available.

 

There are guys like Hunter Renfroe, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, or Tyler O’Neill who could be available. Not sure either would be a huge upgrade, but one of those bats would be a nice fit and add some pop from the right side.

 

I would love if Goldschmidt was available from the Cards. Under control in 2024 for $25M I believe. Obviously sucks that both him and Vlad play 1B, but his bat would be great for this lineup. Or if the Cards are willing to move Arenado, would solve the 3B position moving forward!

 

RF Spinger

SS Bichette

1B Guerrero

DH Goldschmidt or 3B Arenado

3B Chapman or DH Belt

LF Varsho

C Kirk/Jansen

CF Kiermier

2B Merrifield/Biggio

 

Adding Goldy or Arenado to the middle of the order would be sick!

 

It's hard to imagine the Cardinals would be particularly interested in moving either of Goldy or Arenado unless they decide a retooling is in order after this season's disappointment. Arenado is two years older than Chapman and under control for another 4 years, so it's debatable whether it would be more prudent to make a run at re-signing Chapman in free agency vs trading for Arenado who may be on the precipice of the declining phase of his career. If it takes a ludicrous 8 year deal for a Chapman deal then Arenado looks all the more appealing for sure though.

[jaysblue]

It's hard to imagine the Cardinals would be particularly interested in moving either of Goldy or Arenado unless they decide a retooling is in order after this season's disappointment. Arenado is two years older than Chapman and under control for another 4 years, so it's debatable whether it would be more prudent to make a run at re-signing Chapman in free agency vs trading for Arenado who may be on the precipice of the declining phase of his career. If it takes a ludicrous 8 year deal for a Chapman deal then Arenado looks all the more appealing for sure though.

 

Yeah I doubt the Cards would be retooling completely for 2024. Arenado and Goldy are both their core players they've built that lineup around.

 

Arenado still having a solid year hitting .283/.332/.518 with 19 HR and 62 RBI, 128 wRC+ and 2 WAR. Not sure if he'll come close to his 7.3 WAR season again from 2022. Would have him under control until 2028, so that kind of fits into the Jays timeline if they extend both Vladdy and Bo past 2025, but yeah Arenado in the last year or two of that contract might turn into a dud. But he would help during the 2024 and 2025 seasons for sure I think.

 

Goldy would be the perfect bat - only one year at 25M, so not much risk at all. But doubt he wants to just be a DH fulltime.

[Jays333]

Not many elite power bats available.

 

There are guys like Hunter Renfroe, Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, or Tyler O’Neill who could be available. Not sure either would be a huge upgrade, but one of those bats would be a nice fit and add some pop from the right side.

 

I would love if Goldschmidt was available from the Cards. Under control in 2024 for $25M I believe. Obviously sucks that both him and Vlad play 1B, but his bat would be great for this lineup. Or if the Cards are willing to move Arenado, would solve the 3B position moving forward!

 

RF Spinger

SS Bichette

1B Guerrero

DH Goldschmidt or 3B Arenado

3B Chapman or DH Belt

LF Varsho

C Kirk/Jansen

CF Kiermier

2B Merrifield/Biggio

 

Adding Goldy or Arenado to the middle of the order would be sick!

 

Everyone in the league wants both those players. Problem is the Jays farm system is not in the same galaxy as some other teams and wouldn't be able to match offers. If the Cards were selling those players.

[Spanky99]

Whit Merrifield just dropped the *I don't know if this guy's a prick* on live tv, lol.

[max silver]

Yeah I doubt the Cards would be retooling completely for 2024. Arenado and Goldy are both their core players they've built that lineup around.

 

Arenado still having a solid year hitting .283/.332/.518 with 19 HR and 62 RBI, 128 wRC+ and 2 WAR. Not sure if he'll come close to his 7.3 WAR season again from 2022. Would have him under control until 2028, so that kind of fits into the Jays timeline if they extend both Vladdy and Bo past 2025, but yeah Arenado in the last year or two of that contract might turn into a dud. But he would help during the 2024 and 2025 seasons for sure I think.

 

Goldy would be the perfect bat - only one year at 25M, so not much risk at all. But doubt he wants to just be a DH fulltime.

 

Goldschmidt definitely wouldn't be the guy primarily manning the DH position given he's a great defender at first. It would likely be harder convincing Vlad that he should be spending a very big chunk of his playing time at DH. That's certainty not the position on the team with the biggest need for an upgrade given how there are already two key 1B/Dh types on the team in Vlad and Belt.

[M.E.]

Whit Merrifield just dropped the *I don't know if this guy's a prick* on live tv, lol.

 

In relation to who/what?

[connorp]

Cards situation is interesting. Is Jordan Walker really that bad in the OF? I knew he didn’t pass the eye test from what I’ve read, but it’s pretty atrocious on FG

[keggy]

This won't be a popular opinion, but Guerrero should be hitting leadoff.

 

Vlad is near the league lead in GIDP every year and his negative baserunning value reflects that. And Vlad's foot speed is actually fringe average despite his body shape.

 

Reducing his GIDPs and boneheaded baserunning decisions and I honestly think he could add 0.5 WAR alone. And he's not so slow that he'll clog the basepaths for the run producers.

 

Guerrero R

Bichette R

Belt L

Springer R

Chapman R

Varsho L

Kirk/Jansen R

Merrifield R

Kiermaier L

 

Vlad loses less baserunning value and he gets protection from Bichette so he swings at less garbage. Your best hitters are still getting the most ABs. Belt, Varsho, and Kiermaier are less exposed to lefty relievers. Management loves making weird batting orders so you know they'll be on board.

[Spanky99]

In relation to who/what?

 

Sorry the context was who was the big surprise as a personality he was surprised about(among the players), it was Bautista in Baltimore. He loves the man now.

[John_Havok]

Everyone in the league wants both those players. Problem is the Jays farm system is not in the same galaxy as some other teams and wouldn't be able to match offers. If the Cards were selling those players.

 

I think there's a misconception about how trades work in general. It's not like GMs are all on the phone at the same time trying to one-up each other for trade candidates. Each GM will essentially have an idea of their top offers, start with something lower than that, offer that, and if declined, they may circle back later if the player is still available and offer something slightly higher if they really want the player. But they'll always have an idea of their absolute top offer and not go beyond that even if it's demanded by the other team.

 

Unless of course that GM is AJ Preller.

[Stangstag]

This won't be a popular opinion, but Guerrero should be hitting leadoff.

 

Vlad is near the league lead in GIDP every year and his negative baserunning value reflects that. And Vlad's foot speed is actually fringe average despite his body shape.

 

Reducing his GIDPs and boneheaded baserunning decisions and I honestly think he could add 0.5 WAR alone. And he's not so slow that he'll clog the basepaths for the run producers.

 

Guerrero R

Bichette R

Belt L

Springer R

Chapman R

Varsho L

Kirk/Jansen R

Merrifield R

Kiermaier L

 

Vlad loses less baserunning value and he gets protection from Bichette so he swings at less garbage. Your best hitters are still getting the most ABs. Belt, Varsho, and Kiermaier are less exposed to lefty relievers. Management loves making weird batting orders so you know they'll be on board.

 

Honestly not a terrible choice, but I feel Springer would just take his place as GIDP king

[L54]

I think there's a misconception about how trades work in general. It's not like GMs are all on the phone at the same time trying to one-up each other for trade candidates. Each GM will essentially have an idea of their top offers, start with something lower than that, offer that, and if declined, they may circle back later if the player is still available and offer something slightly higher if they really want the player. But they'll always have an idea of their absolute top offer and not go beyond that even if it's demanded by the other team.

 

Unless of course that GM is AJ Preller.

 

What exactly are you arguing here? That just because they Jays have a weak system doesn’t mean that other teams will outbid them?

[L54]

This won't be a popular opinion, but Guerrero should be hitting leadoff.

 

Vlad is near the league lead in GIDP every year and his negative baserunning value reflects that. And Vlad's foot speed is actually fringe average despite his body shape.

 

Reducing his GIDPs and boneheaded baserunning decisions and I honestly think he could add 0.5 WAR alone. And he's not so slow that he'll clog the basepaths for the run producers.

 

Guerrero R

Bichette R

Belt L

Springer R

Chapman R

Varsho L

Kirk/Jansen R

Merrifield R

Kiermaier L

 

Vlad loses less baserunning value and he gets protection from Bichette so he swings at less garbage. Your best hitters are still getting the most ABs. Belt, Varsho, and Kiermaier are less exposed to lefty relievers. Management loves making weird batting orders so you know they'll be on board.

 

Might as well try it!

[Jonn]

This won't be a popular opinion, but Guerrero should be hitting leadoff.

 

Vlad is near the league lead in GIDP every year and his negative baserunning value reflects that. And Vlad's foot speed is actually fringe average despite his body shape.

 

Reducing his GIDPs and boneheaded baserunning decisions and I honestly think he could add 0.5 WAR alone. And he's not so slow that he'll clog the basepaths for the run producers.

 

Guerrero R

Bichette R

Belt L

Springer R

Chapman R

Varsho L

Kirk/Jansen R

Merrifield R

Kiermaier L

 

Vlad loses less baserunning value and he gets protection from Bichette so he swings at less garbage. Your best hitters are still getting the most ABs. Belt, Varsho, and Kiermaier are less exposed to lefty relievers. Management loves making weird batting orders so you know they'll be on board.

 

Hey Buck! Nice to see you stop by the board!

[John_Havok]

What exactly are you arguing here? That just because they Jays have a weak system doesn’t mean that other teams will outbid them?

 

Not at all, just that the Jays might have a "Weak system" in the eyes of prospect ranking sites, but teams with assets make deals based on who they like, not who someone else likes. We've seen plenty of deals as evidence in the past few seasons where people think teams took a weaker deal vs other offers. Strenth of system at trade deadline time is all in the eyes of the team with the asset being dangled. Teams don't generally engage in bidding wars for trades the way people think