General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[spats]

Would have been funnier if Raley went and got the HR ball Vlad hit off him, signed it, and gave it to Vlad saying "You got me."

 

Too bad Vladdy can't hit one of those HR'S when it means something, like today.

[BigCecil]

Too bad Vladdy can't hit one of those HR'S when it means something, like today.

 

For some time I think the league has known he will press and chase in big spots. They bust him in or away. He will roll over or top something often. When he did it yesterday you could see the Rays mouth “it worked” - it’s become an all too familiar refrain.

[jaysblue]

Hope the Blue Jays can sweep the Twins! Lets go!

[John_Havok]

Players had a closed door meeting yesterday after the loss. Schneider’s comment “they beat me to it”

 

“We got punched right in the face the last 10 days or so,” said manager John Schneider. “You have to understand that, make adjustments and have the right attitude. You have to have the right focus going forward and in talking to the guys and hearing them, it has to happen tomorrow. Yes, it’s a tough division. Yes, it’s a tough team. We’re a good team, too.”

 

Matt Chapman met with the media soon after Schneider spoke, and he chose to keep the details between he and his teammates, saying that he was not sure how the media knew the meeting had happened. Chapman is a professional, though, and he’s one of the most respected players in that clubhouse for a reason. Like Schneider, the third baseman believes in the importance of players holding one another accountable.

 

“We’re all grown men here,” Chapman said. “It’s up to us. We’re the ones on the field. Our coaches can’t hold our hands. We have to go out there and find ways to win games. We have to communicate with each other and help try to make each other better. We are a team and we want to win. If we want to win a division or play in the playoffs, it’s up to us to find ways to get back on track. It’s up to nobody else but us.”

 

Schneider, who was the first out of the clubhouse to meet with the media following the game, also took some of the responsibility upon himself and his fellow coaches.

 

“When it comes down to us as a staff -- Pete [Walker] as a pitching coach, Guillermo [Martinez] as a hitting coach, me as a manager -- the expectations are put right in front of you,” Schneider said. “There is an urgency that needs to be had in order to meet those expectations. Wins and losses out the window, the last 10 days haven’t been great, and I think the urgency with which those expectations are trying to be achieved is not right there.”

 

The expectations are, and should be, to win the division. These past 10 days have turned that into a mountain climb.

 

“Yes, that’s on me and the players, but ultimately on me,” Schneider continued. “The players are recognizing that, and when the players are calling attention to that, it’s going to hold a lot more weight than any one of our staff members trying to get mad or get in their face. When players recognize it and they see it needs to get better, it will get better.”

 

 

Doesn’t sound like leadership is a problem at all

[Spanky99]

I saw this last night, Chappy wasn't impressed that the media knew of the player only meeting.

[mphenhef]

I saw this last night, Chappy wasn't impressed that the media knew of the player only meeting.

 

Which is funny as it was probably a guess from the media based on the doors being shut longer than normal and then he confirmed it for them.

[John_Havok]

Which is funny as it was probably a guess from the media based on the doors being shut longer than normal and then he confirmed it for them.

 

Yeah that’s exactly what it was based on all the articles I’ve seen. Educated guess from the media

[MikeM3]

We're at the just try harder stage. You can't just try harder and hit 99 mph pitches with crazy induced vertical break and sinkers with seam shifted wake if you have a bat angle that is not optimized for these pitches. That's where the sport is right now.

 

You can maybe field better if you're in shape or have guys playing the right positions. But this sport has evolved so far past the just try harder thing. There are certain things players literally cannot do.

[Laika]

Yeah

 

Baseball has become a long-term tactical sport. You need to plan on a multi-year basis to be good in very specific ways.

 

Are you seeing pitching trends like high spin four seamers, sweeping sliders, seam shifted wake changeups, etc. emerging? Well, you need to start training your offensive pipeline so that your hitters can handle those emergent pitching tactics at an above average rate.

 

Are you seeing vulnerabilities in the league wide approach of hitters that you think you can train your pipeline of pitchers to expose? Well, you need a comprehensive three year plan to develop that pitching approach effectively. And you need to hope you are early enough for it to work.

 

You also need a cut-throat, search-and-destroy executive that combines advanced analytics and high operational acumen. You cannot just have a decent analytics department advising Ross Atkins and then have him mulling over the depth chart for months while trying to fine tune his MLB roster. Is there a reliever DFA'd with a repertoire that your nerd wing thinks could be tweaked into a backend reliever? Then he should be yours, immediately.

 

Do you have a young 1B player with amazing tools but a problematic body and sub-optimal approach at the plate? Then you need to publicly shaming the fatty and forcing him to spend every waking hour committed to your diet and exercise plan and your neuro-developmental batting simulation laboratory.

[Orgfiller]

We're at the just try harder stage. You can't just try harder and hit 99 mph pitches with crazy induced vertical break and sinkers with seam shifted wake if you have a bat angle that is not optimized for these pitches. That's where the sport is right now.

 

You can maybe field better if you're in shape or have guys playing the right positions. But this sport has evolved so far past the just try harder thing. There are certain things players literally cannot do.

 

I mean if there's one group of guys who you could just tell to get their heads out of their asses and hit better it's Springer, Bichette (already elite), Vlad, Chapman, Kirk, Jansen, Belt (actually looking competent these days). The only ones there currently with issues is Vlad who has every single hitting tool you could ask for, but bad habits, and Kirk who's become a groundball machine but could certainly snap out of it. It's not like this is the Yankees current lineup who is Judge, Rizzo, Torres and a bunch of literal scrubs to just be better. These guys are actually good and have been good. Biggio, Espinal, whatever, yeah good luck to them.

[Solaxys]

What does it achieve though, these closed door meetings...

 

Do they actually say "Hey Vlad, you need to hustle to 1B bud...", or do they put up videos of their last ABs and dissect them with 'you gotta stop swinging at those lifting fastballs Daulton, some of them are at your f***ing eye level man... and Alek, the pitch clock is owning you - can't drive your slider through as you used to before when you had rest in between pitches, any ideas on how we can fix this"?

 

If it is all fluff like 'we gotta do better', then f*** is that going to do lol

[Orgfiller]

If there's one thing that's truly unexplainable to me is why over half the lineup is underperforming their expected stats: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2023&position=&team=141&min=q&sort=13&sortDir=asc

 

These are pretty big gaps, for some of our better hitters. 5 of them with more than just a tiny difference. Varsho sure would look better with an actual wOBA of .324, Vlad with a .400+ wOBA, Springer with a .337. Do they just have unprecedented predictable hitting patterns that every team in the league is ahead of us in?

 

Meanwhile of course, the f***ing Rays. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2023&position=&team=139&min=q&sort=13&sortDir=desc

 

Basically their entire lineup is overperforming. You can't convince me that if you take a look at their hitting talent and ours and tell me that this is just something that's teachable and the Jays are way behind. Sure, Tampa is definitely doing something to make all of these guys straight up hit better, but not being lucky on purpose.

[John_Havok]

What does it achieve though, these closed door meetings...

 

Do they actually say "Hey Vlad, you need to hustle to 1B bud...", or do they put up videos of their last ABs and dissect them with 'you gotta stop swinging at those lifting fastballs Daulton, some of them are at your f***ing eye level man... and Alek, the pitch clock is owning you - can't drive your slider through as you used to before when you had rest in between pitches, any ideas on how we can fix this"?

 

If it is all fluff like 'we gotta do better', then f*** is that going to do lol

 

The fluff is for the reporters. Behind closed doors it's probably more like re-iterating what theyre doing right, but mostly what theyre doing wrong and what steps each player is going to do rectify their shortcomings. As to the exact form that takes, that's not something we'll ever know.

[Laika]

If there's one thing that's truly unexplainable to me is why over half the lineup is underperforming their expected stats: https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2023&position=&team=141&min=q&sort=13&sortDir=asc

 

These are pretty big gaps, for some of our better hitters. 5 of them with more than just a tiny difference. Varsho sure would look better with an actual wOBA of .324, Vlad with a .400+ wOBA, Springer with a .337. Do they just have unprecedented predictable hitting patterns that every team in the league is ahead of us in?

 

Meanwhile of course, the f***ing Rays. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/expected_statistics?type=batter&year=2023&position=&team=139&min=q&sort=13&sortDir=desc

 

Basically their entire lineup is overperforming. You can't convince me that if you take a look at their hitting talent and ours and tell me that this is just something that's teachable and the Jays are way behind. Sure, Tampa is definitely doing something to make all of these guys straight up hit better, but not being lucky on purpose.

 

Toronto is 29th in baseball at Pull%

 

The wOBA on pulled flyballs is much better than centre or oppo flyballs. I am not sure but I don't think xwOBA necessarily adjusts for horizontal angle. Isn't it just based on velocity and vertical angle?

[Laika]

But at the team level Toronto's wOBA vs xwOBA is pretty neutral.

 

.329 wOBA .336 xwOBA

 

middle of the pack for luck

 

There is a league wide differential of -0.005

[Orgfiller]

Toronto is 29th in baseball at Pull%

 

The wOBA on pulled flyballs is much better than centre or oppo flyballs. I am not sure but I don't think xwOBA necessarily adjusts for horizontal angle. Isn't it just based on velocity and vertical angle?

 

Yeah I'm pretty sure it's just EV and LA. A counterpoint to that though, the Braves have the highest pull rate in the league (and highest xWOBA to go along with it as well) and as a team are underperforming by even more than the Jays. So I feel like it's really just luck all things considered.

[Orgfiller]

But at the team level Toronto's wOBA vs xwOBA is pretty neutral.

 

.329 wOBA .336 xwOBA

 

middle of the pack for luck

 

There is a league wide differential of -0.005

 

I guess it's just more frustrating that the share of the bad luck is all coming against the good bats - Vlad, Chapman, Springer, even Varsho is vastly underperforming. Like nobody would care as much if Merrifield and his bloops got a few more outs in return for some of the rockets the aforementioned players hit not being caught.

[John_Havok]

I guess it's just more frustrating that the share of the bad luck is all coming against the good bats - Vlad, Chapman, Springer, even Varsho is vastly underperforming. Like nobody would care as much if Merrifield and his bloops got a few more outs in return for some of the rockets the aforementioned players hit not being caught.

 

Yesterdays game was a perfect example. at least 6 line drives in the 300+ feet range that were right at outfielders. if even 2 of those 6 fall in...

[Laika]

I guess it's just more frustrating that the share of the bad luck is all coming against the good bats - Vlad, Chapman, Springer, even Varsho is vastly underperforming. Like nobody would care as much if Merrifield and his bloops got a few more outs in return for some of the rockets the aforementioned players hit not being caught.

 

I, too, am extremely frustrated. Mostly at:

 

- Vlad's lack of development

- Varsho underperforming expectations

- Jansen and Kirk's mediocre starts, following the big "vote of confidence" that was trading Moreno

- Manoah pumpkin

- Reliever mediocrity

- The depressing state of the farm system

[Omar]

Toronto is 29th in baseball at Pull%

 

The wOBA on pulled flyballs is much better than centre or oppo flyballs. I am not sure but I don't think xwOBA necessarily adjusts for horizontal angle. Isn't it just based on velocity and vertical angle?

 

The wOBA on pulled fly balls shouldn’t have an impact on guys with power who can swing it like Springer, Vladdy, Bo, Chapman, Varsho, etc. Right?

[Laika]

The wOBA on pulled fly balls shouldn’t have an impact on guys with power who can swing it like Springer, Vladdy, Bo, Chapman, Varsho, etc. Right?

 

It definitely has an impact

 

It's not just about cheap homers for guys like Espinal. Think about how many nukes Vladdy has to CF that are hard/far enough to be home runs if he pulls them

[Spanky99]

Cito - "Pull Dat Ball"

[Laika]

I don't know WTF Springer is trying to do but his Pull% has gone from 48% over the last few seasons to like 35%. Not surprising that his ISO sucks.

 

Toronto as a team has gone from 19th to 29th in Pull% from 2022 to 2023. Their three big incumbent Pull% guys were Jansen, Springer, and Chapman. The latter two have decided to not be pull hitters anymore. It destroyed Springer and resulted in one good month for Chapman but he has sucked in May. I really don't like those guys trying to be all field hitters.

 

The downside of being a big pull hitter is a depressed batting average, because you end up wasting a lot of "good" swings on foul balls. But the tradeoff for power tends to worth it for most players. I think...

 

On the team level it's nice to have both kinds. Toronto has guys like Bo, who I would not change at all, and Merrifield and Kirk to spray it around. They don't need Vladdy and Chapman and Springer to also try to be spray hitters.

 

I'm not sure about Varsho. He has extremely high Pull% this year and in his career.

[Spanky99]

I don't know WTF Springer is trying to do but his Pull% has gone from 48% over the last few seasons to like 35%. Not surprising that his ISO sucks.

 

Toronto as a team has gone from 19th to 29th in Pull% from 2022 to 2023. Their three big incumbent Pull% guys were Jansen, Springer, and Chapman. The latter two have decided to not be pull hitters anymore. It destroyed Springer and resulted in one good month for Chapman but he has sucked in May. I really don't like those guys trying to be all field hitters.

 

The downside of being a big pull hitter is a depressed batting average, because you end up wasting a lot of "good" swings on foul balls. But the tradeoff for power tends to worth it for most players. I think...

 

Didn't you do a breakdown last season on this, IIRC?

[BigCecil]

The media hype around a players meeting is just ridiculous. All is does is create unrealistic outcome expectations.

[G-Snarls]

I, too, am extremely frustrated. Mostly at:

 

- Vlad's lack of development

- Varsho underperforming expectations

- Jansen and Kirk's mediocre starts, following the big "vote of confidence" that was trading Moreno

- Manoah pumpkin

- Reliever mediocrity

- The depressing state of the farm system

 

Yes on call counts

 

Very frustrating season so far

[BigCecil]

 

The downside of being a big pull hitter is a depressed batting average, because you end up wasting a lot of "good" swings on foul balls. But the tradeoff for power tends to worth it for most players. I think...

 

 

Not sure how statistically it would/could be measured but isnt another down side that as your pull% rises pitchers game plan and stay away. So you swing at a lot of pitches you roll over on being the pull hitter that you are. You just get less pitches you should/can actually pull to pull.

[Laika]

Not sure how statistically it would/could be measured but isnt another down side that as your pull% rises pitchers game plan and stay away. So you swing at a lot of pitches you roll over on being the pull hitter that you are. You just get less pitches you should/can actually pull to pull.

 

Well yeah, but like everything there is a good and bad way to do it. Good pull hitters don't swing at pitches they can't pull in the air

 

There are similar follies for hitters who always try to go up the middle. Like, they will hit a meek grounder to 2B trying to inside out everything when they were swinging at a cookie middle in. See Brett Lawrie's entire career

[BigCecil]

Well yeah, but like everything there is a good and bad way to do it. Good pull hitters don't swing at pitches they can't pull in the air

 

There are similar follies for hitters who always try to go up the middle. Like, they will hit a meek grounder to 2B trying to inside out everything when they were swinging at a cookie middle in. See Brett Lawrie's entire career

 

Lawrie was such a disappointment. A Cdn who came up had a 157 wRC+ over 200 PAs. 2.6 WAR. I remember arguing endlessly with "DJBLUERAY" on the old Board that he might have a better career than Machado. Man was I wrong on that one.

 

In the end he couldn't even make any contact.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Can someone explain to me how, in 8 years now, the only starting pitcher this current Jays management team has developed is Alek Manoah? And he sucks now too.

 

Not a single homegrown starter ready in AAA either.

 

The rotation is made up of expensive FAs and one guy they traded for, who also kind of sucks now too.

 

In 8 years??

 

They didn't even come close with enough failed starters to build a good bullpen in those 8 years either lol

 

f*** me gently, that's terrible.