General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[G-Snarls]

5 hits tonight

 

All he does is hit

[The_DH]

The leash is getting tighter for Belt. Such a shame. Wonder if Atkinson screwed up giving him a contract and nobody else would realizing he's toast.

[Stangstag]

The leash is getting tighter for Belt. Such a shame. Wonder if Atkinson screwed up giving him a contract and nobody else would realizing he's toast.

 

End of the day its a 1 year deal. It was a gamble. Looking like a lost gamble but it doesn’t hurt us going forward

[keggy]

The leash is getting tighter for Belt. Such a shame. Wonder if Atkinson screwed up giving him a contract and nobody else would realizing he's toast.

 

The problem with the Belt signing is that he doesn't provide any value to the team outside of his bat. If someone like Gallo or Bellinger or forgets how to hit, you can still stash them on the roster as a defensive replacement/pinch runner and hope they figure it out.

 

If this is a timing/injury recovery thing, Belt needs to face live pitching to get out of it. But I don't think we can give him too many more major league PAs to figure it out. These are the kinds of decisions that can cost you a pennant at the end of the year.

[The_DH]

That s***** play at first last night on the 3-6 where he didn't come out far enough makes me think his legs just aren't in it.

[Sorrow]

I think he'll get another month of leash and if he fails they bring up Horwitz who's having a nice season in AAA.

[BigCecil]

End of the day its a 1 year deal. It was a gamble. Looking like a lost gamble but it doesn’t hurt us going forward

 

It was worth the gamble and it ain’t over yet. I remember the season we released Frank Thomas after 65 ABs. He was pissed. We released Vogelbach after a cup of coffee and he is still going. Belt looks horrendous now have to admit.

[Olerud363]

It was worth the gamble and it ainÂ’t over yet. I remember the season we released Frank Thomas after 65 ABs. He was pissed. We released Vogelbach after a cup of coffee and he is still going. Belt looks horrendous now have to admit.

 

No front office is perfect, but this front office makes a number of moves that make you scratch your head. In late 2020 they for some reason had Vogelbach and Tellez, then by mid 2021 they had neither. Then they get Belt.

 

Not that the handedness is a super-important thing, like if they kept Teo and Gurriel and they hit 50 bombs together and played OK, we'd forget about it...

 

but...

 

Jays left handed homers, for and against must be something like 20-6 this year. In the last 2 games it's been 6-0.

[Olerud363]

It was worth the gamble and it ain’t over yet. I remember the season we released Frank Thomas after 65 ABs. He was pissed. We released Vogelbach after a cup of coffee and he is still going. Belt looks horrendous now have to admit.

 

Tricky thing is in 2008 Lind was ready, Travis Snider was almost ready *, and they had Matt Stairs and Brad Wilkerson, guys who they thought had more left than Thomas (though in retrospect they didn't).

 

Behind Belt is who? Horwitz? He probably is a .250 .340 .390 hitter or something... that is like replacement level for a DH, but an improvement on sub-replacement if that is what Belt is. I wonder when they'd pull the trigger on a Belt/Biggio Horwitz/Barger switch (though Barger started slow and seems to be injured now).

 

(* In retrospect Snider was never anything, but what I mean is in 2008 Jays had 2 young left handed hitters who were regarded as having potential, Howritz/Barger/Britton the current crop, are from what I understand a few rungs below where Lind and Snider were rated, so making a move with Belt is harder than with Thomas because he has only been with the team for a few weeks (Thomas was in his second year) and there isn't replacements knocking on the door).

[Laika]

No front office is perfect, but this front office makes a number of moves that make you scratch your head. In late 2020 they for some reason had Vogelbach and Tellez, then by mid 2021 they had neither. Then they get Belt.

 

Not that the handedness is a super-important thing, like if they kept Teo and Gurriel and they hit 50 bombs together and played OK, we'd forget about it...

 

but...

 

Jays left handed homers, for and against must be something like 20-6 this year. In the last 2 games it's been 6-0.

 

Well, Tellez is not a particularly good player despite being a good hitter. Still hunting his first 1 WAR season.

 

Stuff like signing Brandon Belt just falls into the annual roster tinkering category. You don't need to control a long-term platoon DH; you just need to assess your depth chart once a year and add the appropriate final pieces during the offseason to make it all work.

[The_DH]

Well, Tellez is not a particularly good player despite being a good hitter. Still hunting his first 1 WAR season.

 

Stuff like signing Brandon Belt just falls into the annual roster tinkering category. You don't need to control a long-term platoon DH; you just need to assess your depth chart once a year and add the appropriate final pieces during the offseason to make it all work.

 

$9+ million isn't really tinkering now is it? I just don't get the feeling that anyone else was after Belt. I figured he would be worth it if fully recovered, but he sure doesn't appear to be.

[Laika]

The problem with the Belt signing is that he doesn't provide any value to the team outside of his bat. If someone like Gallo or Bellinger or forgets how to hit, you can still stash them on the roster as a defensive replacement/pinch runner and hope they figure it out.

 

If this is a timing/injury recovery thing, Belt needs to face live pitching to get out of it. But I don't think we can give him too many more major league PAs to figure it out. These are the kinds of decisions that can cost you a pennant at the end of the year.

 

Bellinger and Gallo would not have signed here though, given the current roster construction, because they would not have full time jobs.

 

Belt signed as a platoon DH and occasional 1B...

 

If Toronto was bringing in Gallo or Bellinger, it would have been instead of the Kiermaier signing or Varsho trade.

 

At the time Belt was signed people were a bit surprised because the thought had been that Jansen and Kirk would occupying DH most of the time. I think the alternative to Belt would have just been signing a much lower cost DH/1B option to backup the position and maybe pinch hit. Someone like Mike Moustakas. Someone you would feel fine cutting if Barger or Horwitz are killing AAA.

[Olerud363]

Well, Tellez is not a particularly good player despite being a good hitter. Still hunting his first 1 WAR season.

 

Stuff like signing Brandon Belt just falls into the annual roster tinkering category. You don't need to control a long-term platoon DH; you just need to assess your depth chart once a year and add the appropriate final pieces during the offseason to make it all work.

 

Totally get that. Just saying it was weird that they briefly thought that platoon DH was important enough to have Vogelbech and Tellez rostered for 1 week, then traded them both.

 

That being said, if Belt doesn't turn it around, and his replacement is sub replacement, Tellez vs Jays current left handed DHs could be a 2 WAR difference even if Tellez is only 0.5 WAR.

[Laika]

$9+ million isn't really tinkering now is it? I just don't get the feeling that anyone else was after Belt. I figured he would be worth it if fully recovered, but he sure doesn't appear to be.

 

It's 2023. Inflation is 69% a year. $9M is tinkering for most teams.

 

I dunno, I don't think the front office is incompetent. I doubt they bid against themselves. Wil Myers got $7.5M, Carlos Santana got $7M, Jean Segura got $8.5M, Adam Duvall got $7M, David Peralta got $6.5M....

 

Toronto might have thrown an extra $1M or $1.5M at Belt to get him to sign.

[Laika]

If Toronto did anything wrong WRT Belt their mistake was falling for the "I was injured" narrative for a mid 30s player.

 

It's easy to look at track record and projections and gobble up that narrative. He was a fantastic hitter for years, and his projections remained strong, but he was bad in 300 PA last year with documented leg injuries.

 

So they assume he was bad because of those injuries AND assume he will not be bad going forward because of those injuries. Why make those assumptions?

 

It's not a big deal of course but at this point in time you'd rather they just gave some random guy the job and reserved the $9M for a deadline acquisition.

[The_DH]

I think Belt was injured and still is. He may be finished because of it. I also don't see who else was going to offer Belt $9.3 mm because of the health situation.

[Pendleton]

If Toronto did anything wrong WRT Belt their mistake was falling for the "I was injured" narrative for a mid 30s player.

 

It's easy to look at track record and projections and gobble up that narrative. He was a fantastic hitter for years, and his projections remained strong, but he was bad in 300 PA last year with documented leg injuries.

 

So they assume he was bad because of those injuries AND assume he will not be bad going forward because of those injuries. Why make those assumptions?

 

It's not a big deal of course but at this point in time you'd rather they just gave some random guy the job and reserved the $9M for a deadline acquisition.

 

It's only been a bad gamble in hindsight but made perfect sense at the time. Basically paying him like a roughly 1 win player and he's been over 2 WAR in eight seasons. Up until now, he's only had one season where he played at least 100 games and failed to produce over 2 WAR. There was reason to think he could have brought significant surplus value at 9M

[Laika]

I think Belt was injured and still is. He may be finished because of it. I also don't see who else was going to offer Belt $9.3 mm because of the health situation.

 

Every free agent Toronto signs, no other team was matching the money. That's just how it works. Basically without exception.

[Olerud363]

I think Belt was injured and still is. He may be finished because of it. I also don't see who else was going to offer Belt $9.3 mm because of the health situation.

 

Wasn't a horrible gamble. So no reason to totally slam the FO for it.

 

The more interesting question is about the future not the past.

 

How do they make sure the DH position isn't a disaster going forward? They are almost 20% of the way through the season.

 

In terms of offense

 

2 positions are MVP Level (SS and 3b)

1 position is all star level (1B)

1 position is mediocre (catcher)

4 positions are sucky (lf, cf, rf, dh)

1 position is f*** off brutal (2b)

 

Kind of weird that DH is just sucky and not f***-off brutal, I guess Kirk or Springer or someone must have done something as DH.

 

Anyway the problem children are really Belt, Biggio, and Espinal. Well Varsho and Springer are problem children but not really going to do much with them except let them work out of it.

[Brownie19]

I think Belt was injured and still is. He may be finished because of it. I also don't see who else was going to offer Belt $9.3 mm because of the health situation.

 

How quickly we forget that Belt was an absolute BEAST in 2020, 2021 - like Top 5 hitter in baseball both seasons (albeit with a SSS). I have no idea what the FO or other FO's knew about his healthy or how sure they could be that he was back healthy, but it's pretty f***ing easy to see why we'd take the risk of signing Belt in a season where we:

 

a) Are WS contenders who don't have anyone locked in as our DH; and

Need LH impact bats.

 

This isn't difficult. Teams REGULARLY swing and miss on FA signings for reasons that are beyond their control (and reasons that are within their control). It's a 1 year deal guys and DH is the easiest position in all of baseball to fill. We can acquire another DH type bat in a heartbeat for next to nothing if the FO determines that Belt is done.

 

I'd be a heck of a lot more worried about someone like Berrios or Springer - guys signed for another 5-6 years (not that I am). If those guys become black holes, it will have a major impact. Brandon Belt will not.

[mphenhef]

Every free agent Toronto signs, no other team was matching the money. That's just how it works. Basically without exception.

 

Weren't there reports that someone recently turned down equal or more money from the Mets to sign with the Jays. I feel like it might have been Gausman.

[jaysblue]

I had no problem with the Belt signing at the time as a part-time 1B/DH. So far it hasn't worked out, but let's just hope that $9M is available if need be at the trade deadline if the Jays need to make an acquisition.

 

You weren't going to sign Bellinger or Gallo like Laika said unless they were guaranteed playing time as a full-time player. Also, means Varsho trade or Kiermier signing doesn't happen. Plus, Bellinger was going to cost almost double and probably came with more risk based on how bad he was the previous couple of seasons.

 

The going rate for veteran platoon 1B/DH type bats last offseason does show the Blue Jays paid fair value for Belt. Maybe an extra $1-2 million more to lure him to sign with Toronto, which is what sometimes needs to happen. So someone like Bellinger might have cost $20M instead of $17.5M.

 

I still give Belt some leash but not much more. Jays can't afford to waste a lot of ABs on him if he shows no signs of turning it around. Hopefully the FO does try to resolve the issue sooner than later because in the past I found they went with guys for too long.

[Brownie19]

Wasn't a horrible gamble. So no reason to totally slam the FO for it.

 

The more interesting question is about the future not the past.

 

How do they make sure the DH position isn't a disaster going forward? They are almost 20% of the way through the season.

 

In terms of offense

 

2 positions are MVP Level (SS and 3b)

1 position is all star level (1B)

1 position is mediocre (catcher)

4 positions are sucky (lf, cf, rf, dh)

1 position is f*** off brutal (2b)

 

Kind of weird that DH is just sucky and not f***-off brutal, I guess Kirk or Springer or someone must have done something as DH.

 

Anyway the problem children are really Belt, Biggio, and Espinal. Well Varsho and Springer are problem children but not really going to do much with them except let them work out of it.

 

Merrifield at 2nd has been great and KK in CF have been very good - about as good as expected. Perhaps your factoring in days when Varsho covers CF and Espy/Biggio play 2nd - but I still don't see how you lock those 2 positions into the 'sucky' category.

[The_DH]

It's only been a bad gamble in hindsight but made perfect sense at the time. Basically paying him like a roughly 1 win player and he's been over 2 WAR in eight seasons. Up until now, he's only had one season where he played at least 100 games and failed to produce over 2 WAR. There was reason to think he could have brought significant surplus value at 9M

 

I'm not so sure about that: I remember at the time that I thought going $9.3 was high as I don't remember anyone else going for him. My best comparison was Bellinger. There was a lot of competition for him so obviously a lot of people felt strong about his ability. I don't remember anyone interested in Belt. It was only the lack of interest that had me thinking it was a mistake.

[jaysblue]

I'm not so sure about that: I remember at the time that I thought going $9.3 was high as I don't remember anyone else going for him. My best comparison was Bellinger. There was a lot of competition for him so obviously a lot of people felt strong about his ability. I don't remember anyone interested in Belt. It was only the lack of interest that had me thinking it was a mistake.

 

Bellinger was also 27-years-old versus Belt who is 35. Also, Bellinger at least could provide some value in CF with his glove, whereas Belt pretty much just offers a bat. So I could understand why there was a lot more competition for Bellinger amongst teams, especially since he was an NL MVP in 2019.

 

As much as I liked Bellinger as a FA on a one-year contract, he likely would have cost the Blue Jays $20M. Right now, it's looking like he'll be worth it, but at the same time it could have went the other way. Also, no Varsho long term and Kiermier if Bellinger is brought in.

[Brownie19]

I'm not so sure about that: I remember at the time that I thought going $9.3 was high as I don't remember anyone else going for him. My best comparison was Bellinger. There was a lot of competition for him so obviously a lot of people felt strong about his ability. I don't remember anyone interested in Belt. It was only the lack of interest that had me thinking it was a mistake.

 

Did you expect every FO that was interested in Belt to personally call you? or report it to ESPN or something? Just because rumours didn't leak out, doesn't mean there was no interest in Belt.

[Stangstag]

Merrifield at 2nd has been great and KK in CF have been very good - about as good as expected. Perhaps your factoring in days when Varsho covers CF and Espy/Biggio play 2nd - but I still don't see how you lock those 2 positions into the 'sucky' category.

 

He just pulled it out of his ass like everything else

[jaysblue]

An American team likely signs Belt for $6-7 million. Toronto had to pay $9.3M.

[Jonn]

I’m going to be honest. When the Jays signed Belt I had no idea he was even a Free Agent. I just assumed he was still under contract with the Giants. I didn’t hear any buzz about Free Agency. And most of us were shocked they signed 1B/DH type.

 

Unfortunately it doesn’t look like they it’s going to work out. The unfortunate part isn’t the 9m it’s already being right up against the luxury tax so it’s really s*****.

[jaysblue]

I’m going to be honest. When the Jays signed Belt I had no idea he was even a Free Agent. I just assumed he was still under contract with the Giants. I didn’t hear any buzz about Free Agency. And most of us were shocked they signed 1B/DH type.

 

Unfortunately it doesn’t look like they it’s going to work out. The unfortunate part isn’t the 9m it’s already being right up against the luxury tax so it’s really s*****.

 

Yeah the 9M against the luxury tax does hurt if it prevents the Jays from adding a key piece or two at the trade deadline.