General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Spanky99]

Well to clarify it did have some consequences. It lead to several failed marriages and I did a few short term stints in the clink. I was also disbarred as an attorney. I suppose my relationships with my children could have been better. And I guess I have had some ill health effects like a couple of heart attacks.

 

But other than that it wasn't that bad really. Much better than being hit and killed by a bus.

 

[Terminator]

 

So you'd choose the bus?

[Spanky99]

So you'd choose the bus?

 

Apparently, Biggio isn't getting you Houck. Full, stop.

[Spanky99]

Big tipper - won't pay for an uber. Classic guy in his early 50's.

 

Sadly you're right, it's getting better at their age. Save for the massive increase in car alcohol and drug related issues. Society suxxxx. It's young people, of course.

[Omar]

Big tipper - won't pay for an uber. Classic guy in his early 50's.

 

In Pete’s defence, he didn’t know how to download the app to his phone. You youngin’s should leave him alone.

[Ehjays]

BA's international prospects bonus board came out today. Emmanuel Bonilla is ranked 4th.

 

Born: Jan. 22, 2006. Ht.: 6-2. Wt.: 190. B-T: R-R.

 

The Blue Jays have hit on international signings at the top of the market (Vladimir Guerrero Jr.) down to the lower-dollar signings like Alejandro Kirk and Gabriel Moreno. For Jan. 15, 2023, Bonilla looks to be in line for a bonus in the $4 million area. Bonilla has high-end bat speed and the ability to drive the ball with impact, giving him a chance to be a 25-plus home run threat. Scouts highest on Bonilla thought he had one of the best combinations of hitting ability and power in the class, with a sound swing path and a good approach. Others thought he was a good fastball hitter who would have to make adjustments to get better against breaking stuff with a power-over-hit offensive profile. Bonilla is an above-average runner with a strong arm, so he could start off in center field, though with his physicality it's likely he ends up in right field long term.

 

OH Yeah!!!

 

Fangraphs had a write up a couple weeks ago,

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/board-update-2023-international-amateur-prospects/

Giving Bonilla a 40+ grade ....They say in the article" Players with a 40+ FV grade or above tend to be prospects who I think would go in the first two rounds of a draft, while the teenage 40 FV prospects are the sort I’d ballpark in the $700,000 to $1 million bonus range as draft prospects, basically the slot amounts just after the second round."

 

It also has the Jays in on 21 ranked Junior Arias RF 16.2 years of age Expected to sign with TOR 40 Grade Dominican Republic

 

So thats 2 high end players and they usually sign around 20 guys, but with Bonilla getting around 4 million it may impact the end result. We definately benefit from no International draft.

 

One more note, Vladdys younger brother is rated 10th Brailer Guerrero and is listed expected to sign with f***in Tampa.

[Pendleton]

 

Seems like another good depth move, strong AAA numbers in a small sample last year, has some big league experience.

[Brownie19]

 

Seems like another good depth move, strong AAA numbers in a small sample last year, has some big league experience.

 

Oh man - this guy is like Casey Lawrence. 35 and has pitched 57 innings in the bigs. Took 3 years off from 2016-2018. Respect.

[glory]

I don't know anything about Jay Jackson or his stuff/velocity, but looking at the numbers, I'm surprised he hasn't gotten more of a look on a MLB team in his career. He went to Japan from 2016-18, but since he's come back in 2019, his minor league numbers have been consistently great. At age 35 I'm not expecting anything from him, but definitely a guy to root for given how long he's been on the grind.

[BigCecil]

Happy with this FO work this off season FWIW. Things I'd like to have seen or see:

 

At least 1 swing and miss arm in pen. Less balls in play is a good thing.

More reliable 5th than White/Kooch

Wish we would have qualified Strip

Signing our young stars to reasonable deals long term (lotsa luck)

 

But almost every team has holes and weakness even before the 5th spot SP. Its going to be interesting how our pen shakes out with the shift elimination, as constructed.

 

Losing Moreno's control/potential and Teo's bat for '23 sting but the FO has done a good job clawing back that value. I'm pretty excited for the season now.

[Orgfiller]

Happy with this FO work this off season FWIW. Things I'd like to have seen or see:

 

At least 1 swing and miss arm in pen. Less balls in play is a good thing.

More reliable 5th than White/Kooch

Wish we would have qualified Strip

Signing our young stars to reasonable deals long term (lotsa luck)

 

But almost every team has holes and weakness even before the 5th spot SP. Its going to be interesting how our pen shakes out with the shift elimination, as constructed.

 

Losing Moreno's control/potential and Teo's bat for '23 sting but the FO has done a good job clawing back that value. I'm pretty excited for the season now.

 

I think given what Stripling ended up signing for, he would've taken the QO which would have been a massive overpay. The difference between the QO and the AAV he got is like 2/3s of one KK or Belt contract.

 

As for the pen, I really think it's entering the season in a very good state. Swanson's addition really shouldn't be understated, even if you regress his 2022 (which was elite) the projections still see some strong K numbers coming from him.

[Laika]

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-batting-practice-cow

 

Vlad is fat

 

#WeightWatchers

[Ray]

I was wondering why the Rays ranked so highly in total team projected WAR, so I decided to take a closer look:

 

Jose Siri - 2.9 WAR

Jonathan Aranda - 1.6 WAR

Christian Bethancourt - 2.1 WAR

 

That's uh...bullish to say the least on those 3. They were not a good offensive team last year and have basically made no moves to address it. They lost Ji-Man Choi who was one of their better hitters. I suppose Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe bouncing back will help, but it's still a pretty meh offense.

[Laika]

I was wondering why the Rays ranked so highly in total team projected WAR, so I decided to take a closer look:

 

Jose Siri - 2.9 WAR

Jonathan Aranda - 1.6 WAR

Christian Bethancourt - 2.1 WAR

 

They were not a good offensive team last year and have basically made no moves to address it. They lost Ji-Man Choi who was one of their better hitters. I suppose Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe bouncing back will help, but it's still a pretty meh offense.

 

yeah they are getting some pretty optimistic projections from Steamer

 

other systems disagree

 

(Steamer - The Bat)

Siri: 2.7 - 1.5

Bethancourt: 2.1 - 0.6

Aranda: 1.6 - 0.5

Franco: 5.6 - 4.8

Diaz: 4.1 - 3.2

Paredes: 2.9 - 2.3

 

The Bat must be a bit more conservative. I see some 0.5 WAR discrepancies for the Toronto hitters, but there aren't any gaps as big as some of these Rays projection gaps.

[Ray]

According to Fangraphs:

 

Yankees - 52.9 WAR (1st in MLB)

Rays - 50.0 WAR (5th in MLB)

Blue Jays - 49.5 WAR (6th in MLB)

Red Sox - 39.4 WAR (18th in MLB)

Orioles - 35.9 WAR (21st in MLB)

 

I like our offseason, and a couple WAR between the Yankees/Jays is not enough of a difference to say they're definitely better since there is generally variance when translating WAR to wins. I'd like another RHH bench bat and decently impactful SP in an ideal world though. We're already over the luxury tax and almost hitting the 2nd tier. Might as well go all in lol.

[Brownie19]

I was wondering why the Rays ranked so highly in total team projected WAR, so I decided to take a closer look:

 

Jose Siri - 2.9 WAR

Jonathan Aranda - 1.6 WAR

Christian Bethancourt - 2.1 WAR

 

That's uh...bullish to say the least on those 3. They were not a good offensive team last year and have basically made no moves to address it. They lost Ji-Man Choi who was one of their better hitters. I suppose Wander Franco and Brandon Lowe bouncing back will help, but it's still a pretty meh offense.

 

Good catch. I could see Aranda playing that well - maybe Siri if everything went right. But Bethancourt? c'mon. Seems very likely that Lowe and Franco both hit better - Franco could be MUCH better.

 

Looking at the Rays team page, I'm reminded of Francisco Mejia and it comforts me a bit that Moreno was the catcher we chose to trade.

[Jays24]

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-batting-practice-cow

 

Vlad is fat

 

#WeightWatchers

 

Seriously though... there is no way he maintains his weight once he gets that 10+ year extension.

[Brownie19]

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-batting-practice-cow

 

Vlad is fat

 

#WeightWatchers

 

And I thought I had a Dad Bod. Disappointing to see he hasn't really taken any further steps to get in better shape.

[Laika]

And I thought I had a Dad Bod. Disappointing to see he hasn't really taken any further steps to get in better shape.

 

I am now past the point of hoping that he ever gets in shape

 

But if he is a groundball machine again this year the pattern will be glaringly obvious as his one elite season will have come after his one offseason of trimming weight

[Jimcanuck]

Trade him before his value drops more.

[Laika]

complete agree, Jimcanuck, in fact perhaps the Belt signing is a precursor

[Captain_Obvious]

complete agree, Jimcanuck, in fact perhaps the Belt signing is a precursor

 

Maybe people thought I was joking/trolling in the Belt signing thread. Trade Vladdy to the Marlins for a couple of their young pitchers.

[L54]

Completely abolish the barrio

[G-Snarls]

Not sure who if anyone is being sarcastic vs serious here

 

Belt turns 35 in April, is on a 1 year deal, with no guarantee that he'll actually hit well

 

Vladdy has had good and bad years, but is 23 and has proven he has the potential of MVP level batting skills

Edited January 12, 2023 by G-Snarls

[Stangstag]

Completely abolish the barrio

 

Its already nuked lol. Who is Vlad’s go-to bench buddy now?? Espinal I guess? Kirk?

[WryNGinger]

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-batting-practice-cow

 

Vlad is fat

 

#WeightWatchers

 

Well s***, that is disappointing to see. He is mourning his friends getting traded and is putting on 5lbs per friend in their honor.

[Captain_Obvious]

Not sure who if anyone is being sarcastic here

 

Belt turns 35 in April, is on a 1 year deal, with no guarantee that he'll actually hit well

 

Vladdy has had good and bad years, but is 23 and has proven he has the potential of MVP level batting skills

 

I am being very serious. It is much easier to find an above average 1B with 3 years of control than it is to find two #3 pitchers with potential to be #2 pitchers with 4+ years of control.

[Terminator]

https://www.mlb.com/news/vladimir-guerrero-jr-batting-practice-cow

 

Vlad is fat

 

#WeightWatchers

 

Is he actually fatter? I can't tell for sure. He just always looks pretty fat to me whether he's supposedly lost or put on weight.

[Laika]

Is he actually fatter? I can't tell for sure. He just always looks pretty fat to me whether he's supposedly lost or put on weight.

 

I don't think he's any BIGGER he's just not any SMALLER.

[L54]

Its already nuked lol. Who is Vlad’s go-to bench buddy now?? Espinal I guess? Kirk?

 

Well not really because Vlad is still here.

 

No idea but hopefully he likes the new guys