General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Laika]

They are good but it's a bit of a stars and scrubs situation. As usual.

 

Painter is the same prospect as Tiedemann, basically, so I would be hesitant to adjust the Phillies rankings at all just because he exists. Too young, too little experience.

[z3r0s]

They are good but it's a bit of a stars and scrubs situation. As usual.

 

Painter is the same prospect as Tiedemann, basically, so I would be hesitant to adjust the Phillies rankings at all just because he exists. Too young, too little experience.

 

By the same you mean two no-doubt, can't miss, immediate aces I assume?

*scuttles back to DDL team*

[Laika]

By the same you mean two no-doubt, can't miss, immediate aces I assume?

*scuttles back to DDL team*

 

yesssss precisely

[Brownie19]

Doing some gymnastics there. Varsho doesn’t equal Lourdes with bat projection, that’s the better comparison. So there’s nobody to take any of Teo loss away. I still think it’s a good offense, don’t get me wrong, but you weren’t doing a fair take there

 

It turns out that baserunning is a component of offense as well.

 

2022 Off Rankings

 

Teo - 15.0

Varsho - 7.7

Gurriel - 3.8

KK - 0.7

Tapia - Negative 2.6

 

We got a combined 1.2 Off between Gurriel and Tapia last year.

 

 

2023 Projected Off Ranking

 

Teo - 13.1

Varsho - 9.8

Gurriel - 7.2

KK - Negative 5.5

4th OFer

 

Varsho is projected to replace about 2/3's of Teo's offensive production. Obviously that projection for KK is very pessimistic, while it's very optimistic for Gurriel - and we'll need to see who's used or add as the 4th OFer. However, this team was 2nd in MLB in both wRC+ and Off last year (7.4 Off ahead of #3 and a staggering 25.7 Off ahead of 6th place). Vlad alone is projected to produce 24.5 Off more than he did in 2022. The offensive downgrades of Teo/Gurriel/Tapia to Varsho/KK/4th OF isn't significant enough to tank this offense IMO.

[Laika]

It turns out that baserunning is a component of offense as well.

 

boom, common sense

[Eat My Shatkins]

It turns out that baserunning is a component of offense as well.

 

2022 Off Rankings

 

Teo - 15.0

Varsho - 7.7

Gurriel - 3.8

KK - 0.7

Tapia - Negative 2.6

 

We got a combined 1.2 Off between Gurriel and Tapia last year.

 

 

2023 Projected Off Ranking

 

Teo - 13.1

Varsho - 9.8

Gurriel - 7.2

KK - Negative 5.5

4th OFer

 

Varsho is projected to replace about 2/3's of Teo's offensive production. Obviously that projection for KK is very pessimistic, while it's very optimistic for Gurriel - and we'll need to see who's used or add as the 4th OFer. However, this team was 2nd in MLB in both wRC+ and Off last year (7.4 Off ahead of #3 and a staggering 25.7 Off ahead of 6th place). Vlad alone is projected to produce 24.5 Off more than he did in 2022. The offensive downgrades of Teo/Gurriel/Tapia to Varsho/KK/4th OF isn't significant enough to tank this offense IMO.

 

I'm pretty excited about this season.

 

1. I don't think the offense has taken as big of a hit as people like to think

2. The OF defense should be vastly improved, and the overall defense is above average to elite at every position but SS

3. They (more than?) adequately replaced Stripling's 2022 production by bringing in Bassitt, plus I don't think Berrios or Kikuchi will be as bad as they were in '22

4. IMO the bullpen is well ahead of last years to start the season with Bass/Pop/Swanson/White and hopefully Pearson playing a role as well

[Laika]

I'm pretty excited about this season.

 

1. I don't think the offense has taken as big of a hit as people like to think

2. The OF defense should be vastly improved, and the overall defense is above average to elite at every position but SS

3. They (more than?) adequately replaced Stripling's 2022 production by bringing in Bassitt, plus I don't think Berrios or Kikuchi will be as bad as they were in '22

4. IMO the bullpen is well ahead of last years to start the season with Bass/Pop/Swanson/White and hopefully Pearson playing a role as well

 

We should also reasonably expect some positive defensive regression from Bo. I really don't think he's as bad as UZR/DRS said he was in 2022.

[The Cats Ass]

At the moment Steamer projections has us as the #2 offense. And the 2nd highest WAR total for batters.

[John_Havok]

It turns out that baserunning is a component of offense as well.

 

2022 Off Rankings

 

Teo - 15.0

Varsho - 7.7

Gurriel - 3.8

KK - 0.7

Tapia - Negative 2.6

 

We got a combined 1.2 Off between Gurriel and Tapia last year.

 

 

2023 Projected Off Ranking

 

Teo - 13.1

Varsho - 9.8

Gurriel - 7.2

KK - Negative 5.5

4th OFer

 

Varsho is projected to replace about 2/3's of Teo's offensive production. Obviously that projection for KK is very pessimistic, while it's very optimistic for Gurriel - and we'll need to see who's used or add as the 4th OFer. However, this team was 2nd in MLB in both wRC+ and Off last year (7.4 Off ahead of #3 and a staggering 25.7 Off ahead of 6th place). Vlad alone is projected to produce 24.5 Off more than he did in 2022. The offensive downgrades of Teo/Gurriel/Tapia to Varsho/KK/4th OF isn't significant enough to tank this offense IMO.

 

Exaclty. Yes, the offense may be slightly worse than last season but its not like the Jays will fall off a cliff. They'll be fine

[Brownie19]

Jays re-sign Casey Lawrence to a minor league contract. Eric Hinske also hired as an assistant coach for the Mets.

[Grant77]

Jays re-sign Casey Lawrence to a minor league contract. Eric Hinske also hired as an assistant coach for the Mets.

 

Casey Larence was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2010 and has mostly been here since. He's a real Jays lifer.

 

Fun trivia for longtime fans. Who did we trade for Eric Hinske?

[Jonn]

Casey Larence was signed as an undrafted free agent in 2010 and has mostly been here since. He's a real Jays lifer.

 

Fun trivia for longtime fans. Who did we trade for Eric Hinske?

 

I will never forget it. Billy Koch lol.

[The_DH]

I had such high expectations for JP as a Billy Beane protege. And then he drafted Russ Adams.

[The Cats Ass]

Eric Hinske had 4.8 WAR as a rookie. Which was tops for our batters that year. I always forget how good he was that year. He was just a huge disappointment after that.

[jaysblue]

Eric Hinske had 4.8 WAR as a rookie. Which was tops for our batters that year. I always forget how good he was that year. He was just a huge disappointment after that.

 

Things looked so promising regarding their position players after 2002. Hinske, Josh Phelps looked like he was going to be a stud, Orlando Hudson, Vernon Wells all having breakouts in 2002.

 

Phelps fell off the map completely.

[Deadpool]

I had such high expectations for JP as a Billy Beane protege. And then he drafted Russ Adams.

 

A few years back I came across some forum posts from before Adams debuted in the MLB, and there was a fair bit of hype or him from the community... Just trippy to see it after the fact.

[The_DH]

A few years back I came across some forum posts from before Adams debuted in the MLB, and there was a fair bit of hype or him from the community... Just trippy to see it after the fact.

 

This is true, I know I had faith in JP at the time and that his comments on Adams were realistic. No scout should have listed him as a shortstop. He was probably a reasonable utility infielder, nothing more. I honestly feel JP's crew was full of shi$ at the time.

[Terminator]

Riccardi was ok. He was held back a lot by not understanding the correct lessons of Moneyball.

 

OBP, college draftees closer to the majors, etc. were important finds of the early Moneyball era but they were only important because they were market inefficiencies. Once other teams caught on those things were no longer the gems that they once were.

 

But instead of finding the new market inefficiencies Riccardi just continued to try and hammer that stuff when it was no longer shrewd to do so.

[Terminator]

What are the best Blue Jays podcasts?

 

Artificial Turf Wars and At the Letters aren't bad and what I currently listen to. Are there any others?

[L54]

What are the best Blue Jays podcasts?

 

Artificial Turf Wars and At the Letters aren't bad and what I currently listen to. Are there any others?

 

Never listened to Artificial Turf Wars. I’ll have to check it out. The only Jays pod I listen to is At the Letters - they do a great job. I mostly listen to industry pods like Baseball America, Prospects Live, or some fantasy ones.

[Terminator]

Artifical Turf Wars is pretty good. I would say At The Letters is a little more exciting but Artificial Turf Wars is probably more sound on the advanced stats.

 

ATW posts less frequently than ATL, and both post barely at all in the offseason. Hence me looking for another Jays pod.

 

I suppose I could look for other baseball or fantasy pods but I just don't have as much interest in the rest of the league as I do the Jays.

[Carlos Danger]

What are the best Blue Jays podcasts?

 

Artificial Turf Wars and At the Letters aren't bad and what I currently listen to. Are there any others?

 

The Gibby Show!

[L54]

I don’t know if there’s any Jays pods worth listening to honestly. Like I would feel as if I was listening to a pod from guys on the RealGM Blue Jays message board compared to some of the discussion here.

[Laika]

All the Jays podcasts suck

 

I only listen to Rates and Barrels and the other one Eno goes on sometimes

[L54]

All the Jays podcasts suck

 

I only listen to Rates and Barrels and the other one Eno goes on sometimes

 

Rates and barrels is good. Eno is a really smart and interesting guy.

[Spanky99]

Things looked so promising regarding their position players after 2002. Hinske, Josh Phelps looked like he was going to be a stud, Orlando Hudson, Vernon Wells all having breakouts in 2002.

 

Phelps fell off the map completely.

 

That was the offseason I signed up to the forum...

[Eat My Shatkins]

How did Ken Giles look after his return last season with Seattle? Obviously he sucked because they DFA'ed him but did he still bring the heat or is his arm cooked?

 

I wouldn't mind seeing him and/or Trevor Rosenthal brought in on training camp invites or MiLB deals.

 

Two filthy bat missers before their injuries.

[John_Havok]

How did Ken Giles look after his return last season with Seattle? Obviously he sucked because they DFA'ed him but did he still bring the heat or is his arm cooked?

 

I wouldn't mind seeing him and/or Trevor Rosenthal brought in on training camp invites or MiLB deals.

 

Two filthy bat missers before their injuries.

 

Really hard to say on Giles, he only faced 18 batters. Fastball averaged 94.8 (career avg 97.1) slider was 84.1 (86.4). Struck out 6, walked 4.

[The Cats Ass]

All the Jays podcasts suck

 

I only listen to Rates and Barrels and the other one Eno goes on sometimes

 

What ever happened to the one this board had?

[Deadpool]

What ever happened to the one this board had?

 

Radio Scouts flew too close to the sun...