General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2023)

[Krylian]

2023 World Series Champion Toronto Blue Jays

 

Happy New Year!

[Deadpool]

I thought we didn't start THIS thread until opening day?

[Eat My Shatkins]

Seeing more rumblings out there about the Jays having interest in Alex Reyes.

 

I wouldn't mind the Jays taking a flyer on him. More gas for the BP.

 

Tons of walks, but tons of K's too.

[Ehjays]

Yes he would be a sweet add, I would take Reyes over Richards anyday.

[Eat My Shatkins]

Yes he would be a sweet add, I would take Reyes over Richards anyday.

 

I had completely forgotten that he was non tendered by the Cards and is a free agent.

[Jimcanuck]

I had completely forgotten that he was non tendered by the Cards and is a free agent.

 

If the Cards released him, best to stay away.

[THANOS]

Happy New Year!!!

 

Yeah, Alex Reyes would be nice. I wonder if he would accept a spring training invite with a guarantee whether he makes the team or not? It would be nice to add him the mix for the last couple spots.

[G-Snarls]

Welcome 2023

[JaysAllMighty]

2023 World Series Champion Toronto Blue Jays

 

Happy New Year!

 

We have a better team this year. It's going to be fun to watch!

[Jays24]

https://jaysjournal.com/posts/blue-jays-minor-leaguer-bowden-francis-breaking-out-in-puerto-rican-winter-league

 

Article about Bowden Francis doing well in the PR League.

[Eat My Shatkins]

It'd be nice if Bowden Francis suddenly turned into something, but I certainly won't be holding my breath.

[John_Havok]

It'd be nice if Bowden Francis suddenly turned into something, but I certainly won't be holding my breath.

 

4/5 at best which for this rotation right now would be just fine.

[Brownie19]

4/5 at best which for this rotation right now would be just fine.

 

I'd be happy if Francis was simply a solid #6 starter who provided some depth to the rotation.

[John_Havok]

Was just listening to the MLB Network over my lunch break and they were running down their predicted top 5 offensive teams for 2023. It was Lidge and some other guy I cant remember, but neither of them had the Jays in their projected top 5 offensive teams in baseball.

 

They had the same team #1 (would have been the Mets or Braves, but stopped listening as soon as they said it was an NL team), Houston #2, then each had a different 3-5 consisting of a mix of Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies, Padres.

 

Am I crazy for thinking the Jays are still easily a top 5 projected offensive team for 2023? LIke I get losing Teoscar is a blow, but the Jays were a top 2-5 team in virtually every offensive metric last season. Losing him and Gurriel and gaining Varsho isnt even close to dropping off a cliff.

 

Are they high or am I expecting too much from the Jays?

[Krylian]

Was just listening to the MLB Network over my lunch break and they were running down their predicted top 5 offensive teams for 2023. It was Lidge and some other guy I cant remember, but neither of them had the Jays in their projected top 5 offensive teams in baseball.

 

They had the same team #1 (would have been the Mets or Braves, but stopped listening as soon as they said it was an NL team), Houston #2, then each had a different 3-5 consisting of a mix of Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies, Padres.

 

Am I crazy for thinking the Jays are still easily a top 5 projected offensive team for 2023? LIke I get losing Teoscar is a blow, but the Jays were a top 2-5 team in virtually every offensive metric last season. Losing him and Gurriel and gaining Varsho isnt even close to dropping off a cliff.

 

Are they high or am I expecting too much from the Jays?

 

They certainly have the potential to be a top offense. I'm not expecting much from Kiermaier or our second basemen, but everywhere else we have the potential to be above average to elite.

[Eat My Shatkins]

That Jays had the 2nd best wRC+ in all of baseball last season.

 

Losing Teoscar and Lourdes shouldn't knock them out of the top 5 IMO, especially if Vladdy bounces back a bit.

 

I'm also expecting a big year from Chapman in a contract year, and I also expect Varsho to improve with no shift. Probably Biggio as well.

[Ehjays]

Was just listening to the MLB Network over my lunch break and they were running down their predicted top 5 offensive teams for 2023. It was Lidge and some other guy I cant remember, but neither of them had the Jays in their projected top 5 offensive teams in baseball.

 

They had the same team #1 (would have been the Mets or Braves, but stopped listening as soon as they said it was an NL team), Houston #2, then each had a different 3-5 consisting of a mix of Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies, Padres.

 

Am I crazy for thinking the Jays are still easily a top 5 projected offensive team for 2023? LIke I get losing Teoscar is a blow, but the Jays were a top 2-5 team in virtually every offensive metric last season. Losing him and Gurriel and gaining Varsho isnt even close to dropping off a cliff.

 

Are they high or am I expecting too much from the Jays?

 

I think the Dodgers would have as many question marks as us, they have a solid top 5 but starts to get shakey after that, and the Yankees, they are 1 more year older and high injury risk lineup. Im not sold on them being higher than us either.

[Ehjays]

Was just listening to the MLB Network over my lunch break and they were running down their predicted top 5 offensive teams for 2023. It was Lidge and some other guy I cant remember, but neither of them had the Jays in their projected top 5 offensive teams in baseball.

 

They had the same team #1 (would have been the Mets or Braves, but stopped listening as soon as they said it was an NL team), Houston #2, then each had a different 3-5 consisting of a mix of Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies, Padres.

 

Am I crazy for thinking the Jays are still easily a top 5 projected offensive team for 2023? LIke I get losing Teoscar is a blow, but the Jays were a top 2-5 team in virtually every offensive metric last season. Losing him and Gurriel and gaining Varsho isnt even close to dropping off a cliff.

 

Are they high or am I expecting too much from the Jays?

 

[Laika]

Was just listening to the MLB Network over my lunch break and they were running down their predicted top 5 offensive teams for 2023. It was Lidge and some other guy I cant remember, but neither of them had the Jays in their projected top 5 offensive teams in baseball.

 

They had the same team #1 (would have been the Mets or Braves, but stopped listening as soon as they said it was an NL team), Houston #2, then each had a different 3-5 consisting of a mix of Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies, Padres.

 

Am I crazy for thinking the Jays are still easily a top 5 projected offensive team for 2023? LIke I get losing Teoscar is a blow, but the Jays were a top 2-5 team in virtually every offensive metric last season. Losing him and Gurriel and gaining Varsho isnt even close to dropping off a cliff.

 

Are they high or am I expecting too much from the Jays?

 

Jays rank #3 in projected WAR from position players behind only the Mets and Padres. That includes defense of course, but still.

[connorp]

Jays rank #3 in projected WAR from position players behind only the Mets and Padres. That includes defense of course, but still.

 

Kind of stupid in the context. You would do projected OPS or something

[Laika]

Kind of stupid in the context. You would do projected OPS or something

 

not displayed anywhere on Fangraphs as far as I know

 

I can find runs per game

 

1. braves 4.66

2. padres 4.64

3. astros 4.64

4. blue jays 4.62

5. dodgers 4.61

[Carlos Danger]

Was just listening to the MLB Network over my lunch break and they were running down their predicted top 5 offensive teams for 2023. It was Lidge and some other guy I cant remember, but neither of them had the Jays in their projected top 5 offensive teams in baseball.

 

They had the same team #1 (would have been the Mets or Braves, but stopped listening as soon as they said it was an NL team), Houston #2, then each had a different 3-5 consisting of a mix of Dodgers, Yankees, Cardinals, Phillies, Padres.

 

Am I crazy for thinking the Jays are still easily a top 5 projected offensive team for 2023? LIke I get losing Teoscar is a blow, but the Jays were a top 2-5 team in virtually every offensive metric last season. Losing him and Gurriel and gaining Varsho isnt even close to dropping off a cliff.

 

Are they high or am I expecting too much from the Jays?

 

Are they factoring in CC which is not yet a sure thing??

[Jimcanuck]

 

Reasonable ranking but I have trouble with Padres over Dodgers. Jays and Mariners could go either way, pretty evenly matched.

[Ehjays]

Analyzing The Blue Jays’ Second Base Possibilities

By Anthony Franco | January 2, 2023 at 8:03pm CDT

 

The Blue Jays have made a few drastic lineup changes this offseason, sending out Teoscar Hernández and top catching prospect Gabriel Moreno while bringing back Daulton Varsho and signing Kevin Kiermaier. Toronto general manager Ross Atkins recently told reporters he considers the club’s heavy lifting mostly finished, though he left the door open for another small-scale move or two.

 

One area of the roster that has thus far not changed is the infield. That’s not all that surprising, considering the Jays entered the offseason with a strong infield under club control for another year. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Matt Chapman will be back at the corners, with Bo Bichette manning shortstop. The one position that doesn’t seem entirely settled is second base, though that’s not for a lack of options. Toronto has a trio of players who could compete for reps at the keystone, with manager John Schneider presumably planning to divvy up playing time depending on how each performs early in 2023.

 

At the moment, Whit Merrifield looks like the favorite for early run. Toronto acquired him from the Royals at last summer’s trade deadline, buying low at a time when the two-time All-Star was sitting on a meager .240/.290/.352 line. The Jays seemed undeterred by those numbers, betting on Merrifield’s career track record and generally solid work following an atrocious April. He rewarded the front office’s faith, hitting .281/.323/.446 in 44 games in a Jays uniform.

 

That surely cemented Merrifield’s place somewhere in the regular lineup, with second base being the straightforward option. Merrifield is capable of covering all three outfield positions, but Varsho and Kiermaier are in line for regular playing time alongside George Springer on the grass. With Alejandro Kirk and Danny Jansen likely to split time between catcher and designated hitter, Merrifield will presumably man second base on Opening Day.

 

Doing so pushes a pair of players who looked like quality regulars for the Jays not too long ago — Santiago Espinal and Cavan Biggio — to the bench. Biggio has been in the Opening Day lineup in each of the past three seasons, twice at the keystone, but that seems unlikely to be the case this year. The left-handed hitter is coming off a second straight pedestrian year, hitting .202/.318/.350 with six home runs through 303 plate appearances. Biggio still draws plenty of walks but he’s seen his power production dip the past couple seasons. He struggled enough he was briefly optioned to Triple-A Buffalo last season, though he was recalled within two weeks. He spent most of the year in a utility capacity, playing all four corner spots in addition to second base.

 

After Biggio was demoted, the primary second base job fell to Espinal. The 28-year-old had worked primarily as a versatile bench piece from 2020-21. He played his way into more consistent reps with a strong first few months in 2022, hitting .271/.323/.425 through the end of June. He even secured an All-Star appearance for that excellent early work, but he couldn’t carry that production for a full season. Espinal hit .261/.321/.317 from July onwards, ceding some more playing time to Biggio and (after the deadline) Merrifield for the stretch run.

 

With Merrifield in the fold, Espinal and Biggio each entered the offseason as at least somewhat realistic potential trade candidates. Espinal’s ability to cover shortstop if Bichette were injured and/or needed a rest day made him seem more entrenched than Biggio in Toronto, although it seemed reasonable teams could call on either player. There’s been no indication thus far that Toronto has discussed either with other clubs.

 

Considering the scant remaining middle infield options available via free agency, it’s possible teams like the White Sox, Angels, Giants or Brewers could still be in touch with Atkins and his staff in the coming months. The Jays don’t figure to be urgent to move either player, particularly considering the health uncertainty present with Kiermaier and Springer. An injury to either could press Merrifield more frequently back into outfield duty, leaving Espinal and/or Biggio to handle the keystone on a more regular basis.

 

Espinal and Biggio each qualified for arbitration for the first time this winter. They’re both projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a salary in the $2-3MM range. That’s hardly onerous, although there’s a case to be made for considering trade possibilities. As MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald noted last week, the Blue Jays presently project to enter the season right around the $233MM base luxury tax line. There are enough error bars in arbitration projections they could conceivably head into the year either above or below that threshold.

 

A team’s tax payor status isn’t finalized until season’s end, and the organization could well determine they’re comfortable exceeding that mark to maximize their chances in what should be a competitive AL East. Yet if the club is content with its infield strength — especially if they’re confident prospect Addison Barger will be ready for MLB action fairly early in the season — fielding offers on Espinal or Biggio could make sense. They’re not under pressure to do so but would presumably be open to the possibility, particularly if they could net immediate rotation depth or bullpen help.

[John_Havok]

Are they factoring in CC which is not yet a sure thing??

 

Like I said I stopped listening when they both had their #1 picks as an NL team. The ajays never even came up as a team they considered as top 5 and just thought other teams were better.

 

I don’t get it, Teo is a loss, but Gurriel isn’t. Varsho’s projection offsets a bunch of Teo’s loss, so I just struggle with the complete lack of consideration for the Jays being a top 5 offense when there’s no real reason to think they’re suddenly going to take a giant step backwards.

 

It’s possible these guys were not factoring in gains from baserunning that should occur this season with the pitch clock and limited throw overs to 1b. I see the Jays benefitting quite a bit from that while some other teams won’t see large differences.

[John_Havok]

Reasonable ranking but I have trouble with Padres over Dodgers. Jays and Mariners could go either way, pretty evenly matched.

 

Yankees are the biggest wildcard in there. No way you can project Judge to repeat his seasons and if he doesn’t, where’s all the offense going to come from? Stanton will be hurt half the season, Rizzo is good but not great, Donaldson is cooked, LeMahieux is more of a contact guy and will probably be hurt again at some point…Trevino, IKF and Hicks are all limp dicks to average. Unless Pereza and Oswaldo come up and shoot out of the gate like the second comings of Jeter and Bernie Williams I don’t see where they’re going to score all these runs.

 

Pitching they are pretty good up front in the rotation though.

[connorp]

Like I said I stopped listening when they both had their #1 picks as an NL team. The ajays never even came up as a team they considered as top 5 and just thought other teams were better.

 

I don’t get it, Teo is a loss, but Gurriel isn’t. Varsho’s projection offsets a bunch of Teo’s loss, so I just struggle with the complete lack of consideration for the Jays being a top 5 offense when there’s no real reason to think they’re suddenly going to take a giant step backwards.

 

It’s possible these guys were not factoring in gains from baserunning that should occur this season with the pitch clock and limited throw overs to 1b. I see the Jays benefitting quite a bit from that while some other teams won’t see large differences.

 

Doing some gymnastics there. Varsho doesn’t equal Lourdes with bat projection, that’s the better comparison. So there’s nobody to take any of Teo loss away. I still think it’s a good offense, don’t get me wrong, but you weren’t doing a fair take there

[Stangstag]

 

Phillies are not better than any of the teams on this list, major recency bias here IMO.

 

So i’d bump the Phills down to 10th and say its a fair list

 

Also not sure the Astros are #1 considering they lost Verlander and haven’t replaced him

[connorp]

Phillies are not better than any of the teams on this list, major recency bias here IMO.

 

So i’d bump the Phills down to 10th and say its a fair list

 

Also not sure the Astros are #1 considering they lost Verlander and haven’t replaced him

 

Apparently Painter has a legit shot to break camp as the #5 SP for Philly. Should give them a really good rotation if he’s at least solid in his rookie year. Suarez is probably a little better than last year too. With Turner it’s a better team for sure

[Stangstag]

Apparently Painter has a legit shot to break camp as the #5 SP for Philly. Should give them a really good rotation if he’s at least solid in his rookie year. Suarez is probably a little better than last year too. With Turner it’s a better team for sure

 

Meh. Bullpen is still ass, their defense still sucks, Harper is gone until July and Schwarber is their only OF that doesn’t suck complete s***. Turner was a nice add for the next few years, but they definitely aren’t close to being a top 6 team