Around Baseball 2023

[Laika]

I don't think we want less variance that's all. We need to push our ceiling UP.

 

You must love Chad Green then since he was the best RP in baseball a few years ago

[MikeM3]

5 WAR upside?? You think Belly has 7.8 WAR upside too?? Based on this logic, we might as well sign Syndergaard - he has big time upside too. And please stop quoting Green's WAR from last year like that matters. The guy has consistently been a 1.5+ WAR reliver. He might out WAR Giolito on his own in 1/2 the innings.

 

You think we're so good that we just need a 1.5 war reliever? I don't know what this board is smoking but we have to get alot better.

[BigCecil]

You think we're so good that we just need a 1.5 war reliever? I don't know what this board is smoking but we have to get alot better.

 

We saw what? 5 weeks of Green. Mostly promising results to be sure but he is coming off major surgery. There is still a lot of risk there. This Board is always talking about the extreme volatility of relievers. Not without some good rationale.

[Brownie19]

Sale + cash to the Braves for Grissom

[Brownie19]

You think we're so good that we just need a 1.5 war reliever? I don't know what this board is smoking but we have to get alot better.

 

I don't see your point. If Green is a 1.5 WAR RP - that makes the Jays a lot better. I think the probability that Giolito is a 3+ WAR SPer / difference maker is quite low. I'm shocked it took $19M aav to get him....although I'm shocked Montas got $16M...happy we aren't in dire need of a SPer this off-season.

[BTS]

Sale + cash to the Braves for Grissom

 

Oh that's interesting. I guess Grissom will be their 2B with Story at short?

[John_Havok]

We saw what? 5 weeks of Green. Mostly promising results to be sure but he is coming off major surgery. There is still a lot of risk there. This Board is always talking about the extreme volatility of relievers. Not without some good rationale.

 

12 innings. 0.3 fWAR. That's a damn fine pen arm. Take that up to 60 innings, which is reasonable, 1.5 fWAR. expecting 1.5-2 wins from a reliever is never a bad thing.

 

I suspect people are getting hung up on the order in which the signings are happening without taking into account where the Jays are on win curve.

 

Like, they're worried that signing IKF before signing a LF, 3B and DH must mean they are no longer looking for them or something. It's a pretty confusing rationale.

[Frenchsoup]

What a trade for AA, Sale is still a top 10 pitcher. He has a ton of confidence in David Fletcher though, which I really don't see why they'd take that contract on.

[L54]

12 innings. 0.3 fWAR. That's a damn fine pen arm. Take that up to 60 innings, which is reasonable, 1.5 fWAR. expecting 1.5-2 wins from a reliever is never a bad thing.

 

I suspect people are getting hung up on the order in which the signings are happening without taking into account where the Jays are on win curve.

 

Like, they're worried that signing IKF before signing a LF, 3B and DH must mean they are no longer looking for them or something. It's a pretty confusing rationale.

 

You don’t think everybody understands that the order doesn’t matter? I think people are seeing 7M to IKF and 10M to KK and whatever to Green and doing the math and wondering where a third baseman, DH or corner outfielder and SP depth are coming from

[L54]

We are turning into the Toronto Indians

[Frenchsoup]

Cash 2 lolllll who's Boston gm lol

[DonJays]

You don’t think everybody understands that the order doesn’t matter? I think people are seeing 7M to IKF and 10M to KK and whatever to Green and doing the math and wondering where a third baseman, DH or corner outfielder and SP depth are coming from

It’s not our $. Who cares? As long as they spend it and they have indicated they will

[L54]

It’s not our $. Who cares? As long as they spend it and they have indicated they will

 

There are still only so many to spend and they maybe have 30M left

 

Trust me I do not care about Rogers money. They could spend like the Dodgers if they decided they wanted to

[L54]

But that’s not even entirely fair, they are spending aggressively and ran their largest payroll ever last year

[Laika]

But that’s not even entirely fair, they are spending aggressively and ran their largest payroll ever last year

 

Also, infielder options are so limited

 

It's Chat Mappman or.... trading for Yoan Moncada? Perfectly reasonable to run some s***** platoon for a year

[L54]

Also, infielder options are so limited

 

It's Chat Mappman or.... trading for Yoan Moncada? Perfectly reasonable to run some s***** platoon for a year

 

Ya the 3B options are butt cheeks but as it currently stands with a Belt and Chapman replacement presumably at DH and corner outfielder they are essentially running it back so I understand why fans are feeling antsy

[max silver]

I don't see your point. If Green is a 1.5 WAR RP - that makes the Jays a lot better. I think the probability that Giolito is a 3+ WAR SPer / difference maker is quite low. I'm shocked it took $19M aav to get him....although I'm shocked Montas got $16M...happy we aren't in dire need of a SPer this off-season.

 

That's why I think it's complete folly to suggest that the team should trade Kikuchi and sign a free agent starter to take his place.

[MikeM3]

Ya the 3B options are butt cheeks but as it currently stands with a Belt and Chapman replacement presumably at DH and corner outfielder they are essentially running it back so I understand why fans are feeling antsy

 

Gio Urshela. 20th percentile outcome 1.1 war and 99th percentile outcome 1.2 war

 

Jays championship

[John_Havok]

You don’t think everybody understands that the order doesn’t matter? I think people are seeing 7M to IKF and 10M to KK and whatever to Green and doing the math and wondering where a third baseman, DH or corner outfielder and SP depth are coming from

 

Where the 3b, DH and corner outfielders are coming from is the exact same questions as before the signings,so...again I wonder why people are worried about the signings that happened first.

 

Hypothetically, had the Jays already signed Soler, JDM and Chapman(sake of argument) would the same problems with the IKF and KK signings be had?

[Laika]

Where the 3b, DH and corner outfielders are coming from is the exact same questions as before the signings,so...again I wonder why people are worried about the signings that happened first.

 

Hypothetically, had the Jays already signed Soler, JDM and Chapman(sake of argument) would the same problems with the IKF and KK signings be had?

 

No but IKF and KK are pseudo starters so it's a distinct possibility that they are both in the starting 9 this spring

 

That's the fear

 

What if they just sign a DH, a left handed utility bat, and call it an off-season? Woof.

[L54]

No but IKF and KK are pseudo starters so it's a distinct possibility that they are both in the starting 9 this spring

 

That's the fear

 

What if they just sign a DH, a left handed utility bat, and call it an off-season? Woof.

 

Exactly

 

There is no guarantee they add one of these big bats. KK and IKF are guaranteed to be on the team

[L54]

Where the 3b, DH and corner outfielders are coming from is the exact same questions as before the signings,so...again I wonder why people are worried about the signings that happened first.

 

Hypothetically, had the Jays already signed Soler, JDM and Chapman(sake of argument) would the same problems with the IKF and KK signings be had?

 

They can’t afford to add all those players, and committed almost 17M of 40M available to IKF and KK

[Laika]

The KK signing is at least objectively good value

 

The Falaffle one is trickier. Not as clearly worth it

[glory]

They can’t afford to add all those players, and committed almost 17M of 40M available to IKF and KK

 

Ideally both IKF and KK would be bench players, but that would mean they'd still need to add an OF, 3B, and DH while already using $18M on those two. Maybe they have more money to spend than people think but more likely at least one of them will be starting next season.

[Stangstag]

Ideally both IKF and KK would be bench players, but that would mean they'd still need to add an OF, 3B, and DH while already using $18M on those two. Maybe they have more money to spend than people think but more likely at least one of them will be starting next season.

 

Yeah I really can’t wrap my head around sinking 18 million into 2 bench players in December with plenty of time and players still available. Reminds me of the Kendrys signing

[John_Havok]

They can’t afford to add all those players, and committed almost 17M of 40M available to IKF and KK

 

You’re assuming 40 million is the number, not necessarily true. But what you said speaks exactly to what I said, that you’re worried about the order of the signings before the off-season is over.

 

People thought the market would pick up after Yamamoto and Ohtani were off the board, yet…here we are. Same big names still available more than a week after Yamamoto signs. Plus there’s still trades.

 

If the roster is in the same shape on Feb 1st, then there’s a problem. It’s not a problem yet

[glory]

Yeah I really can’t wrap my head around sinking 18 million into 2 bench players in December with plenty of time and players still available. Reminds me of the Kendrys signing

 

Definitely feels like a bird in the hand type of scenario where they'd rather have KK and IKF than wait for something better and be left scrambling if it didn't happen. If the Jays happen to find a way to fill 3B, LF, and DH within their budget and have KK/IKF on the bench, then that would be the ideal scenario. I just don't see it happening.

[Chappy]

Definitely feels like a bird in the hand type of scenario where they'd rather have KK and IKF than wait for something better and be left scrambling if it didn't happen. If the Jays happen to find a way to fill 3B, LF, and DH within their budget and have KK/IKF on the bench, then that would be the ideal scenario. I just don't see it happening.

 

Kk isn’t going to be on the bench. He won’t play everyday but he will be the primary CF once again.

[Terminator]

Atkins will probably make at least one impactful trade. It's hard to see what that trade will be, especially if you are trying to figure out what 3B might be available, but I'm pretty sure we'll see something.

[L54]

You’re assuming 40 million is the number, not necessarily true. But what you said speaks exactly to what I said, that you’re worried about the order of the signings before the off-season is over.

 

People thought the market would pick up after Yamamoto and Ohtani were off the board, yet…here we are. Same big names still available more than a week after Yamamoto signs. Plus there’s still trades.

 

If the roster is in the same shape on Feb 1st, then there’s a problem. It’s not a problem yet

 

I am assuming because that’s basically what’s been reported plus or minus 10M. Even with 33M left to spend not sure where 3B, COF and DH are coming from and that’s all I’m saying. But you might be content with Randall Grichuk, Rhys Hoskins and Andres Gimenez so our expectations might just be different