Around Baseball 2023

[Carlos Danger]

If he got better interest rates for investments vs the loan then yeah it just makes more sense to take a loan. Ez money. Doesn’t necessarily mean the team is hurting for cash.

 

In this case it was a desperation move since interest rates are so high. The TV deal got screwed and they only got 60% or something. The loan is a bridge between getting their TV money back in a new deal.

 

Padres insiders are saying Hader is gone in FA as is most likely Snell. Soto already rejected a $400 million dollar deal, don’t see an extension happening as much as the Padres would like to.

[Olerud363]

If he got better interest rates for investments vs the loan then yeah it just makes more sense to take a loan. Ez money. DoesnÂ’t necessarily mean the team is hurting for cash.

 

I'm not sure what the interest is on 50 million dollar business loans right now. However long term Mortgage rates are 8% (it was 2% like 2 years ag0). Seems like a crazy time to take out a loan unless you were desperate.

[Laika]

None of us know a lot about corporate finance and MLB franchise financials, but this definitely smells like trouble.

 

Have to assume SDP will be looking to chop significant payroll. In addition to Soto, trade possibilities are:

 

Machado - huge contract

Boogers - huge contract

Tatis Jr. - huge contract but he's only 25 years old in 2024

Musgrove - 4/$80M left.... probably a "fair" contract to take on

Darvish - 5/$83 left... he is 37. too scary based on age.

Cronenworth - bad contract based on 2023 and his age but it's not a huge AAV

Suarez - not a chance

Kim - $8M in 2024, lots of value

Scott Barlow - final arb 2024, will get like $9M

Grisham - two years left of arb, will get like $5M then $7.5M or whatever

 

I think they might trade Grisham, Barlow, and Musgrove. I think they do trade Soto. I think they might try to get out of the Cronenworth deal in some way.

 

They would need to work very hard to get out of the Machado or Boogers deals... need a special deal and willing buyer. Not likely.

 

Tatis Jr. there would be takers for that contract but ooof that's a bad PR move for SDP.

[deanmike]

None of us know a lot about corporate finance and MLB franchise financials, but this definitely smells like trouble.

 

Have to assume SDP will be looking to chop significant payroll. In addition to Soto, trade possibilities are:

 

Machado - huge contract

Boogers - huge contract

Tatis Jr. - huge contract but he's only 25 years old in 2024

Musgrove - 4/$80M left.... probably a "fair" contract to take on

Darvish - 5/$83 left... he is 37. too scary based on age.

Cronenworth - bad contract based on 2023 and his age but it's not a huge AAV

Suarez - not a chance

Kim - $8M in 2024, lots of value

Scott Barlow - final arb 2024, will get like $9M

Grisham - two years left of arb, will get like $5M then $7.5M or whatever

 

I think they might trade Grisham, Barlow, and Musgrove. I think they do trade Soto. I think they might try to get out of the Cronenworth deal in some way.

 

They would need to work very hard to get out of the Machado or Boogers deals... need a special deal and willing buyer. Not likely.

Tatis Jr. there would be takers for that contract but ooof that's a bad PR move for SDP.

 

Hold on lemme bump something.

[deanmike]

Hypothetical trade

 

Vlad Jr and Espinal to SD for Tatis Jr and Machado. Who says no? Value wise it grades out as a win for the Jays on BTV (2.8 median value out and 7 in). Most trades Atkins makes usually have the Jays gaining around 5-10 median value on BTV.

 

So now what are people's thoughts on this?

[Brownie19]

Silver Slugger nominees are out. Only 1 Blue Jays was nominated and it was Whit Merrifield as a utility player. That pretty much sums up the Blue Jays season right there.

[Laika]

Silver Slugger nominees are out. Only 1 Blue Jays was nominated and it was Whit Merrifield as a utility player. That pretty much sums up the Blue Jays season right there.

 

Vlad probably deserved a nomination over Lowe and Torkelson. I guess that's the only possible gripe.

 

Bo's injuries and him trailing off in Aug/Sep did leave him behind the SS nominees. JP Crawford's season is shocking, haha.

[Stangstag]

Vlad probably deserved a nomination over Lowe and Torkelson. I guess that's the only possible gripe.

 

Bo's injuries and him trailing off in Aug/Sep did leave him behind the SS nominees. JP Crawford's season is shocking, haha.

 

Seager gonna win anyways, so the SS nominees are moot. Yeah what a monster season by JP, good for him

[L54]

Seager gonna win anyways, so the SS nominees are moot. Yeah what a monster season by JP, good for him

 

Well the nominees still presumably rank offensive seasons by position. So yes Seager will win but that doesn’t mean they nominate Kiner-Falefa and Tim Anderson

[Olerud363]

So now what are people's thoughts on this?

 

When Tatis was signed to that contract he was like a SS who could hit 45 homers and a 1.000 OPS.

 

Now post steroid thing Tatis is like a Daulton Varsho if Daulton Varsho could hit .250.

 

Really. Like everything about 2023 Tatis and Varsho is the same except Tatis hit .250 instead of .225.

 

And Machado took a step back last year and was actually exactly the same as Chapman in terms of fWAR (but had better counting stats).

 

So... which way did they hate the trade again? I seem to recall they thought San Diego would say NO. But maybe it's Toronto who would say no. Who knows what Machado and Tatis are going forward and they are owed like 3/4 of a billion.

[Laika]

When Tatis was signed to that contract he was like a SS who could hit 45 homers and a 1.000 OPS.

 

Now post steroid thing Tatis is like a Daulton Varsho if Daulton Varsho could hit .250.

 

Really. Like everything about 2023 Tatis and Varsho is the same except Tatis hit .250 instead of .225.

 

And Machado took a step back last year and was actually exactly the same as Chapman in terms of fWAR (but had better counting stats).

 

So... which way did they hate the trade again? I seem to recall they thought San Diego would say NO. But maybe it's Toronto who would say no. Who knows what Machado and Tatis are going forward and they are owed like 3/4 of a billion.

 

Toronto definitely says no

 

SDP might even say no if they think trading Tatis is PR suicide

[Carlos Danger]

So now what are people's thoughts on this?

 

Still hell no due to the Espinal and Tatis part.

 

We knew the Padres were cutting payroll, hence the Vlad for Soto trade even before the loan info came out.

 

The Padres are cutting payroll, not trying to tank and the GM get himself fired.

[Terminator]

So now what are people's thoughts on this?

 

Sure let's do it, it's not my money

 

I'd want to see the medicals on these guys though. Tatis seems like he could be a disaster waiting to happen and Machado doesn't seem to be the healthiest these days either.

Edited November 2, 2023 by Terminator

[glory]

I think the Padres would keep Tatis, both for optics and because he doesn't make big money in 2024. Soto and Kim both make sense to move. Kim has a mutual option for 2025 which he would likely decline, so I'm assuming he'll be a FA rather than arb eligible (not sure though). He's probably a good target for the Jays who need a 2B and he'll likely cost way less to extend than Bichette, so he can be a Bo replacement for 2026 onwards. Machado and Xander both have contracts that end in like 2045 so I doubt any team is touching those deals.

 

Preller extending Machado, Cronenworth, and Darvish when he didn't have to, and then signing Xander when he had both Kim and Tatis already on the roster is absolutely a fireable offense. Not sure how he's survived, especially now with the financial issues.

[Carlos Danger]

I think the Padres would keep Tatis, both for optics and because he doesn't make big money in 2024. Soto and Kim both make sense to move. Kim has a mutual option for 2025 which he would likely decline, so I'm assuming he'll be a FA rather than arb eligible (not sure though). He's probably a good target for the Jays who need a 2B and he'll likely cost way less to extend than Bichette, so he can be a Bo replacement for 2026 onwards. Machado and Xander both have contracts that end in like 2045 so I doubt any team is touching those deals.

 

Preller extending Machado, Cronenworth, and Darvish when he didn't have to, and then signing Xander when he had both Kim and Tatis already on the roster is absolutely a fireable offense. Not sure how he's survived, especially now with the financial issues.

 

It’s not Preller’s fault the team has financial issues. The Regional TV Network fell apart costing the Padres TV money, a lot.

[connorp]

It’s not Preller’s fault the team has financial issues. The Regional TV Network fell apart costing the Padres TV money, a lot.

 

Yeah, I read about that. Seemed they had to plan in place to overspend beyond their means to attract a better tv deal, then they go bankrupt (tv people)

 

Still, as I pointed out, their stars are getting $15-20 million dollars a year.. it’s not a payroll out of control for any decent market. SD happens to be a small market in bb though.

 

If they move Soto, they can get a nice return and probably pick up some decent FA on good deals. They do have living in SD as a perk

[glory]

It’s not Preller’s fault the team has financial issues. The Regional TV Network fell apart costing the Padres TV money, a lot.

 

I didn't say it was his fault, but those contracts were bad deals when they were signed, and now the team has financial issues that are only going to get exacerbated by the fact that the Padres have at least 2 of the top 10 worst contracts in the sport (if not more). It's one thing if the Yankees or Red Sox are making those financial mistakes, but when it's San Diego, it's hard to justify how Preller is still employed.

[connorp]

I didn't say it was his fault, but those contracts were bad deals when they were signed, and now the team has financial issues that are only going to get exacerbated by the fact that the Padres have at least 2 of the top 10 worst contracts in the sport (if not more). It's one thing if the Yankees or Red Sox are making those financial mistakes, but when it's San Diego, it's hard to justify how Preller is still employed.

 

They don’t have any bad contracts at this years salary. Tons of surplus value actually. If they spent more than they have coming in and they have bargains for contracts, there’s an issue this early on.

[BTS]

[L54]

Max Muncy is one of my favourite players. He’s turning into Kyle Schwarber but he’s been an integral piece of the current Dodgers success

[connorp]

Max Muncy is one of my favourite players. He’s turning into Kyle Schwarber but he’s been an integral piece of the current Dodgers success

 

I don’t think they had anything to lose just picking up the option. Hit age and skill set isn’t going to be north of $15m in 2025, and there’s always the risk he falls off cliff.

[deanmike]

Still hell no due to the Espinal and Tatis part.

 

We knew the Padres were cutting payroll, hence the Vlad for Soto trade even before the loan info came out.

 

The Padres are cutting payroll, not trying to tank and the GM get himself fired.

 

Vlad for Soto straight up is very far apart value wise, it would be a massive fleece for Atkins if it happened. Vlad's BTV median value is 0.3, while Soto's is 22.9.

 

Here's a couple of hypotheticals that are closer in value:

 

1) Vlad Jr and Espinal (3 total BTV median value) for Soto and Robert Suarez (6.1 total value)

2) Vlad Jr and Manoah (14.7 total value) for Soto (22.9 total value)

 

Thoughts on these?

[L54]

I don’t think they had anything to lose just picking up the option. Hit age and skill set isn’t going to be north of $15m in 2025, and there’s always the risk he falls off cliff.

 

No there was nothing to lose but if he has another 3 WAR season and hits 30 tanks next year wouldn’t you love to have him in 2025 for 14M?

 

Hard to see him eroding so fast that he couldn’t be Brandon Belt in 2025

[connorp]

No there was nothing to lose but if he has another 3 WAR season and hits 30 tanks next year wouldn’t you love to have him in 2025 for 14M?

 

Hard to see him eroding so fast that he couldn’t be Brandon Belt in 2025

 

I just think the deal is still there in 2025. No need to guarantee it. Not a huge thing really though for LAD

[L54]

I just think the deal is still there in 2025. No need to guarantee it. Not a huge thing really though for LAD

 

That’s fair you’re probably right. Might just be a good faith gesture

[Carlos Danger]

I didn't say it was his fault, but those contracts were bad deals when they were signed, and now the team has financial issues that are only going to get exacerbated by the fact that the Padres have at least 2 of the top 10 worst contracts in the sport (if not more). It's one thing if the Yankees or Red Sox are making those financial mistakes, but when it's San Diego, it's hard to justify how Preller is still employed.

 

Yes, but the Padres drew a large gate, I think over 3 million due to those names. They are not drawing those numbers with guys like Espinal and Pillar.

[Carlos Danger]

Vlad for Soto straight up is very far apart value wise, it would be a massive fleece for Atkins if it happened. Vlad's BTV median value is 0.3, while Soto's is 22.9.

 

Here's a couple of hypotheticals that are closer in value:

 

1) Vlad Jr and Espinal (3 total BTV median value) for Soto and Robert Suarez (6.1 total value)

2) Vlad Jr and Manoah (14.7 total value) for Soto (22.9 total value)

 

Thoughts on these?

 

IMO the Padres might take a flyer on Manoah, as would many other teams. Not sure if I can see the Padres doing that as part of a Soto deal. A big part of a Soto deal will be PR.. The Padres getting Vlad back is something they can justify, I think they also would want a decent spec or someone with future upside for the fanbase. Manoah might be seen as damaged goods, plus hoping for 2021 Vlad would be too much risk.

 

As to Espinal, I hope we improve our team so much in the off season there is not a roster spot for him. I have no idea why the Padres would have any interest in him. He has bench player/27th man value only.

[connorp]

Yes, but the Padres drew a large gate, I think over 3 million due to those names. They are not drawing those numbers with guys like Espinal and Pillar.

 

Yeah, you could almost look at it as a startup. Pumping more money into the business than your revenue would otherwise justify, with the goal of boosting your top line revenue to where the big payroll made sense.

 

They’ve made some huge gains, doubling revenue, and coming close to having a lucrative tv deal, so hard to call it dumb. They still have a decent core and have a chance to remain good why they retool a bit.

 

As I said, I give the owner an A for what he’s done to this point. His prospects outside of Tatis the last few years wouldn’t have been game changers/gate draws.

 

If you want to analyze Preller strictly from X and O’s in his baseball moves, it may be a different story, but I’m not sure that’s being completely fair. He’s the GM of a business. Success isn’t always W-L.

[connorp]

One could look at TB almost as a failure in the same way SD succeeded. Both had uninterested fans bases. Instead of prospects/analytics, SD bought a team/traded for big names and built interest in their business much better than TB

[connorp]

TB almost at very bottom 1.19b

SD 1.87b

 

Would be interested to know what it was 5 years ago