Around Baseball 2023

[jaysblue]

Mets Designate Gary Sánchez For Assignment

 

Blue Jays should pick him up in case one of Kirk or Jansen hit the IL.

[jaysblue]

The guys from that vaunted CLE starting rotation from 2015-2017 sure aren't what they used to be

 

Carrasco

Bauer

Kluber

Clevinger

 

Pretty much all gone to s*** to various degrees

 

Yup. They do near the end of their tenure with the Tribe and get traded before they become worthless.

 

Even earlier, Fausto Carmona haha.

 

I think Shane Bieber gets traded either at the deadline or offseason. He doesn't seem as elite anymore but I'm sure they'll get an amazing package for him.

[John_Havok]

Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola on Wander Franco:

 

“He’s so good at contact, and he can touch everything, so let’s get a better pitch to hit," Mottola said. “Even though you can touch that ball, let’s wait for one that you can drive."

 

Sounds like a message some Jays might be in need of

[G-Snarls]

Randy Vasquez makes his major league debut for the Yanks tonight

[Orgfiller]

Rays hitting coach Chad Mottola on Wander Franco:

 

“He’s so good at contact, and he can touch everything, so let’s get a better pitch to hit," Mottola said. “Even though you can touch that ball, let’s wait for one that you can drive."

 

Sounds like a message some Jays might be in need of

 

This advice is Vlad in a nutshell.

[G-Snarls]

If only the Jays could have hitting coach like Mottola...

 

Why did they fire him again??

[G-Snarls]

Yup. They do near the end of their tenure with the Tribe and get traded before they become worthless.

 

Even earlier, Fausto Carmona haha.

 

I think Shane Bieber gets traded either at the deadline or offseason. He doesn't seem as elite anymore but I'm sure they'll get an amazing package for him.

 

Yeah

 

The pitching factories in Cleveland and Tampa seem to get max value from trading SP's who are starting to decline but who still have a "name" other teams really want, and are about to become expensive all at the same time.

Edited May 26, 2023 by G-Snarls

[John_Havok]

If only the Jays could have hitting coach like Mottola...

 

Why did they fire him again??

 

Wasnt fired, his contract ran out after 2013 and he was just not retained. he was only the hitting coach for 1 season.

[Pendleton]

[jaysblue]

Yeah

 

The pitching factories in Cleveland and Tampa seem to get max value from trading SP's who are starting to decline but who still have a "name" other teams really want, and are about to become expensive all at the same time.

 

Yeah same with Tampa like you said. A lot of their elite pitchers they develop and have under control never really continue to put up elite numbers long term with their new teams.

 

David Price - was great for just 2.5 years after he was traded. (2014-2016).

 

Blake Snell - hasn't been anything special with the Padres but he's been decent. Not looking good this season though.

 

Chris Archer - turned into a pumpkin after being traded.

 

I wouldn't want to be the team that trades a boatload for Shane McClanahan two-three years from now.

[John_Havok]

Okay, so recently in either this thread or another one, someone asked about how it is that Tampa has the most amazing offense in baseball, seemingly out of nowhere.

 

here is your answer:

 

***disclaimer***

This is high level thing, there's a shitload of nuance to this

**end disclaimer**

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/swing-take?year=2023&team=&group=Batter&type=All&sub_type=null&min=q&sort=9&sortDir=desc

 

go there and sort the run values from highest to lowest on the far right, the ALL category. This is the cumulative run values that hitters accumulate in the results of their swing decisions in 4 zones - the Heart, Shadow, Chase and Waste zones.

 

This is what the zones look like for reference along with a bunch of other awesome info for the current MLB leader - Yordan Alvarez:

 

 

Now, scroll down that list sorted from best to worst and you'll find 10 Rays in the top 100 in all of baseball. That, in itself really isn't all that shocking given that their offense is clicking, a sorted list doesn't explain the "why" they are hitting so well.

 

The "why" is answered by sorting the column for run values over the heart of the plate. Do that and you'll see 3 Rays in the top 7 in all of baseball, 6 in the top 20, 7 in the top 45 and in total all 10 are in the top 117

***Disclaimer, this list sorts with every game so these rankings will change slightly from game to game, but overall they've remained pretty steady for the past few weeks***

 

Long story short, The Rays are murdering baseballs in the heart of the plate. They aren't swinging at borderline pitches, they wait for the cookies - and they do damage.

 

ONe thing youll also notice though, is that up and down that list of Rays with all the sexy numbers in the Heart of the plate... their numbers in the Shadow zones are pretty rough with the exception of Arozarena. You'll also notice that Bo Bichette actually leads MLB in runs in the shadow zone - which is cool.

 

Now, this is a leader board of results, not anything that's been normalized to league average or that kind of thing, simply whether the result of the pitch is a ball, strike, foul, HR etc, but when you click on each player, you can see the league average run values in each zone and how each players total runs are split between swinging runs, and runs from taking pitches. THis is pretty intuitive since taking a pitch right down the middle is obviously not a good thing to do, but taking pitches in the chase and waste zones would obviously be a good thing to do.

 

Here's the highest rated Ray at the moment this is being posted... Yandy Diaz

 

 

Murdering the heart of the plate. Not so good in the shadow zone, where he actually takes pitches at a higher rate than league average.

 

Anyways, click on each one for the Rays and it tells a pretty compelling story. They aren't really seeing any more pitches in the heart of the zone than anyone else, but they do swing at the shadow zone generally less than league average. They simply waiting for a pitch over the heart, and doing damage when they get it. All of them.

 

Now, this doesn't really show if this will continue as this isn't a predictive thing, this is all results. But, you can flip back and forth between each hitter's previous seasons to see if anything has actually changed in their swing/take rates in each zone and make some educated guesses on approach changes, or just better results.

 

Then do the same for most Blue Jays and weep for everyone who isn't Bo or Vlad

[Spanky__99]

I don't think I've ever seen a team hit as well as the Rays for 2 months out of the gate, maybe the '01 Mariners, I guess? Crazy.

[Stangstag]

Okay, so recently in either this thread or another one, someone asked about how it is that Tampa has the most amazing offense in baseball, seemingly out of nowhere.

 

here is your answer:

 

***disclaimer***

This is high level thing, there's a shitload of nuance to this

**end disclaimer**

 

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/swing-take?year=2023&team=&group=Batter&type=All&sub_type=null&min=q&sort=9&sortDir=desc

 

go there and sort the run values from highest to lowest on the far right, the ALL category. This is the cumulative run values that hitters accumulate in the results of their swing decisions in 4 zones - the Heart, Shadow, Chase and Waste zones.

 

This is what the zones look like for reference along with a bunch of other awesome info for the current MLB leader - Yordan Alvarez:

 

 

Now, scroll down that list sorted from best to worst and you'll find 10 Rays in the top 100 in all of baseball. That, in itself really isn't all that shocking given that their offense is clicking, a sorted list doesn't explain the "why" they are hitting so well.

 

The "why" is answered by sorting the column for run values over the heart of the plate. Do that and you'll see 3 Rays in the top 7 in all of baseball, 6 in the top 20, 7 in the top 45 and in total all 10 are in the top 117

***Disclaimer, this list sorts with every game so these rankings will change slightly from game to game, but overall they've remained pretty steady for the past few weeks***

 

Long story short, The Rays are murdering baseballs in the heart of the plate. They aren't swinging at borderline pitches, they wait for the cookies - and they do damage.

 

ONe thing youll also notice though, is that up and down that list of Rays with all the sexy numbers in the Heart of the plate... their numbers in the Shadow zones are pretty rough with the exception of Arozarena. You'll also notice that Bo Bichette actually leads MLB in runs in the shadow zone - which is cool.

 

Now, this is a leader board of results, not anything that's been normalized to league average or that kind of thing, simply whether the result of the pitch is a ball, strike, foul, HR etc, but when you click on each player, you can see the league average run values in each zone and how each players total runs are split between swinging runs, and runs from taking pitches. THis is pretty intuitive since taking a pitch right down the middle is obviously not a good thing to do, but taking pitches in the chase and waste zones would obviously be a good thing to do.

 

Here's the highest rated Ray at the moment this is being posted... Yandy Diaz

 

 

Murdering the heart of the plate. Not so good in the shadow zone, where he actually takes pitches at a higher rate than league average.

 

Anyways, click on each one for the Rays and it tells a pretty compelling story. They aren't really seeing any more pitches in the heart of the zone than anyone else, but they do swing at the shadow zone generally less than league average. They simply waiting for a pitch over the heart, and doing damage when they get it. All of them.

 

Now, this doesn't really show if this will continue as this isn't a predictive thing, this is all results. But, you can flip back and forth between each hitter's previous seasons to see if anything has actually changed in their swing/take rates in each zone and make some educated guesses on approach changes, or just better results.

 

Then do the same for most Blue Jays and weep for everyone who isn't Bo or Vlad

 

That’s great and all, but doesn’t really explain how or why they are murdering balls in the center of the plate. Still have to account for timing on the swing (fastball vs change vs curve etc.)

 

This makes more sense if they know what’s coming already…

[John_Havok]

That’s great and all, but doesn’t really explain how or why they are murdering balls in the center of the plate. Still have to account for timing on the swing (fastball vs change vs curve etc.)

 

This makes more sense if they know what’s coming already…

 

Yeah that’s part of the mystery, it could just mean they’re all getting “lucky” with the results all at the same time. Look at Diaz as an example comparing his current 2023 to 2022. Basically the same % of pitches in the heart, basically the same swing/take percentages, he’s just doing way more damage this season.

 

But it does probably speak to the approach to hitting being preached in Tampa by Mottola…wait for the meatballs and let the bat fly. Keeping it simple.

 

That’s not even to say that’s not what is being preached in Toronto either, but clearly not as many players are being successful at it.

[Stangstag]

Yeah that’s part of the mystery, it could just mean they’re all getting “lucky” with the results all at the same time. Look at Diaz as an example comparing his current 2023 to 2022. Basically the same % of pitches in the heart, basically the same swing/take percentages, he’s just doing way more damage this season.

 

But it does probably speak to the approach to hitting being preached in Tampa by Mottola…wait for the meatballs and let the bat fly. Keeping it simple.

 

That’s not even to say that’s not what is being preached in Toronto either, but clearly not as many players are being successful at it.

 

Yeah almost like he knows whats coming right??

 

Easier to do damage when you can time up the swing

[John_Havok]

Yeah almost like he knows whats coming right??

 

Easier to do damage when you can time up the swing

 

Could be very well versed in pitch tendencies …I dunno. I’m not hearing any trash cans being banged or hitters glancing to the dugouts or 3b coaches for signals. Electronic stealing of pitch comm could be done in theory but you still have to then relay that info to the batter somehow, unless every Tampa batting helmet has a pitch comm receiver in the earpiece thats preset to the opposing teams devices and they can hear every pitch call, but that would be blatantly obvious after a game or two.

[Spanky__99]

Yeah that’s part of the mystery, it could just mean they’re all getting “lucky” with the results all at the same time. Look at Diaz as an example comparing his current 2023 to 2022. Basically the same % of pitches in the heart, basically the same swing/take percentages, he’s just doing way more damage this season.

 

But it does probably speak to the approach to hitting being preached in Tampa by Mottola…wait for the meatballs and let the bat fly. Keeping it simple.

 

That’s not even to say that’s not what is being preached in Toronto either, but clearly not as many players are being successful at it.

 

The power peaks on these guys from last year is nuts, especially Diaz, he could always hit, but his ISO is insane.

[Stangstag]

Could be very well versed in pitch tendencies …I dunno. I’m not hearing any trash cans being banged or hitters glancing to the dugouts or 3b coaches for signals. Electronic stealing of pitch comm could be done in theory but you still have to then relay that info to the batter somehow, unless every Tampa batting helmet has a pitch comm receiver in the earpiece thats preset to the opposing teams devices and they can hear every pitch call, but that would be blatantly obvious after a game or two.

 

Im not sure man its just the easiest explanation. (Pitch com stealing) There’s no way guys like Taylor Walls and Luke Raley are better hitters than Vlad f***ing Guerrero. And its the entire Tampa lineup.

 

You’d think more people would be accusing them of cheating with their numbers still being this good 2 months into the season now…

[John_Havok]

Im not sure man its just the easiest explanation. (Pitch com stealing) There’s no way guys like Taylor Walls and Luke Raley are better hitters than Vlad f***ing Guerrero. And its the entire Tampa lineup.

 

You’d think more people would be accusing them of cheating with their numbers still being this good 2 months into the season now…

 

Well they’re already slowing down…wrc+ of 148 for April

May it’s only 129…

[Spanky__99]

Moniak basically dropped a can of corn in the 10th. Barria at least got out of it giving up only 1, picked him up I guess. Still that's fugly, lol. Oops, Thaiss was ruled off the plate, RIP.

[max silver]

Well they’re already slowing down…wrc+ of 148 for April

May it’s only 129…

 

"Only" 129 he says.

[Olerud363]

ONe thing youll also notice though, is that up and down that list of Rays with all the sexy numbers in the Heart of the plate... their numbers in the Shadow zones are pretty rough with the exception of Arozarena. You'll also notice that Bo Bichette actually leads MLB in runs in the shadow zone - which is cool.

 

Now, this is a leader board of results, not anything that's been normalized to league average or that kind of thing, simply whether the result of the pitch is a ball, strike, foul, HR etc, but when you click on each player, you can see the league average run values in each zone and how each players total runs are split between swinging runs, and runs from taking pitches. THis is pretty intuitive since taking a pitch right down the middle is obviously not a good thing to do, but taking pitches in the chase and waste zones would obviously be a good thing to do.

 

Here's the highest rated Ray at the moment this is being posted... Yandy Diaz

 

 

Murdering the heart of the plate. Not so good in the shadow zone, where he actually takes pitches at a higher rate than league average.

 

If I understand this correctly it sounds like they are committing to pitches at the heart of the plate and trying to hammer that pitch and not bothering to try and adjust if the pitch is on the edge of the zone, and willing to take strikes.

 

Instead of adjusting on a nasty pitch they'll take it, or swing as if it's down the middle, instead of adjusting and hitting a weak ground ball. Maybe optimizing swing mechanics for the pitch down the middle, and not worrying if it results in swing and miss at nasty stuff.

 

Probably using advances in pitching machines to train guys to swing down the middle, and take what they can't hit (even if in the zone).

[Olerud363]

Im not sure man its just the easiest explanation. (Pitch com stealing) There’s no way guys like Taylor Walls and Luke Raley are better hitters than Vlad f***ing Guerrero. And its the entire Tampa lineup.

 

You’d think more people would be accusing them of cheating with their numbers still being this good 2 months into the season now…

 

If sign stealing works though, wouldn't a legal system that accomplished the same thing work too? A combination of using pitch machines and mental techniques to get batters recognize pitches super early. Like put them in front of the pitch machine simulating different pitches regularly and do drills to simulate swing decisions, video, video, video, major human and and AI analysis to figure out when guys are tipping, modeling pitch sequences, and regularly updating it and adding predictive analytics, not just looking at what pitchers did last month, but predicting the adjustments.

 

And then presenting the information to players the right way. Like too much information might just have them confused. Perhaps instead of having them conciously look for 'fastball' on pitch 3, it might be more just drills, upon drills, upon drills in front of pitch machines to get them subconciously recognizing pitches early and anticipating.

[Krylian]

Elon Musk can't even get Twitter to run properly.

 

Twitter would work great if the general public weren't allowed to tweet.

[jaysblue]

It's crazy that everyone in the Rays lineup are having career years offensively at their ages. It's not like some of these guys are highly touted elite prospects who are 24 or 25. A lot of them are in their late 20's, early 30's and had no previous success at this kind of level.

 

It's not just Yandy Diaz or Randy Arozarena or Wander Franco. Sure one breakout from a player happens every so often, but its a majority of the lineup. Harold Ramiez, Issac Paredes, Taylor Walls, Jose Siri, Luke Raley etc. Josh Lowe's numbers even have been elite. One thing I notice is the power numbers of all these players have improved greatly from their previous years. The Rays are hitting more home runs.

 

Yandy Diaz in the ninth inning yesterday turned on a ball so hard he almost hit it out but just went foul. They definitely are hitting the ball harder or crushing pitches that are more in the middle of the plate. Do they know which pitch is coming? Not sure. But to have every bat in their lineup click all at the same time as they are two months into the season is something you rarely see in baseball.

[BTS]

[BTS]

I’m panicking watching the 2B, who knew exactly what was happening

[Stangstag]

 

f***ing embarrassing for that entire team

[Stangstag]

I’m panicking watching the 2B, who knew exactly what was happening

 

The only guy trying to stop a disaster haha. Feel bad for him

[BTS]

The only guy trying to stop a disaster haha. Feel bad for him

 

Dude is going to have nightmares about screaming helplessly to stop a disaster and nobody listening to him