Before the 2026 season, Jesús Sánchez generated a .181 ISO in his six-year MLB career. That ISO ranks in the 66th percentile among the 382 hitters with at least 1,000 plate appearances during that period. Accordingly, it is easy to understand why the Blue Jays would be interested in Sánchez’s power.

Despite his history, Sánchez has not delivered the expected power so far this season. After the May 10 game against the Angels, his ISO was .157, above the .148 MLB average. However, that .157 includes his home run when he faced second baseman, Adam Frazier, who entered the May 9 game in the eighth inning as a fill-in pitcher for the Angels with Toronto holding a 10-1 lead. Before May 9, Sánchez's ISO was .140, which was below expectations.

Overall, his 2026 wRC+ is 87, but his .318 xwOBA corresponds with a 100 wRC+. Therefore, it appears that Lady Luck has not looked favourably upon Sánchez thus far this season. Could luck be a factor that explains the ISO drop from the pre-2026 version of Sánchez? No, there are other aspects to consider, which are as follows:

• Chasing Contact
• Sprint Speed
• Bat Tracking

The best way to address Sánchez’s power loss is to lay out the data all at once. Yes, table time! In fact, two tables! 

Table 1 shows the ISO (SLG minus BA) and xISO (xSLG minus xBA) for Sánchez for 2026 and for the 2023-2025 period, in total and by zone. The shadow zone is the width of two baseballs: one baseball lies in the strike zone, and one baseball is outside. Also, observe that Sánchez’s xISO has consistently exceeded his ISO, suggesting that perhaps Lady Luck (a positive xISO-ISO delta) does not explain the 2026 ISO underperformance. 

Table 2 displays his swing rate and chase rate by attack zone. Now to the analysis!

Table 1

Table 2

Chasing Contact 

Sánchez has increased both the rate at which he swings at pitches and the rate at which he makes contact this season compared to the 2023-2025 period. Overall, his 2026 swing rate and contact rate are 54.5% and 77.6%, respectively, which are higher than his 50.5% swing rate and 73.1% contact rate during the 2023-2025 period. One of the benefits of a higher contact rate is a lower K%: Sánchez’s 2026 strikeout rate is 20.3%, lower than his 2023-2025 24.9% strikeout rate. Unsurprisingly, the higher swing rate and contact rate this season have led to a lower walk rate (4.5%) than during the 2023-2025 seasons (8.4%). Furthermore, Sánchez’s average 2026 bat speed is 73.0 mph (62nd percentile), which is slower than his 2025 mark of 75.9 mph (93rd percentile). A reduced bat speed is consistent with a batter who wants to increase his contact rate.

However, the higher swing rate and contact rate have resulted in lower ISO and xISO numbers. As Table 2 shows, his swing rates have risen in the non-power zones: shadow, chase, and waste. Under the Contact% numbers, note the average ISO numbers for the four zones. On average, hitters generate more power on pitches in the heart zone than in the shadow, chase, and waste zones. From a contact perspective, the higher contact rates in the shadow and chase zones have contributed to Sánchez’s 2026 power decline.

To illustrate this point, I recalculated Sánchez’s 2026 ISO and xISO using his 2023-2025 swing rates and his 2026 contact rates. Also, I held the total number of swings in 2026 constant and applied the relevant 2026 ISO/xISO per-swing numbers. In other words, based on the swing-rate differences between the 2023-2025 seasons and 2026, I transferred 18 swings from the waste, the chase, and the outer part of the shadow zone to the heart zone and the inner part of the shadow zone. I performed a similar transfer from the out-of-zone swings to the in-zone swings. 

The results of the calculation are not surprising. If Sánchez had his 2023-2025 swing rates, combined with his 2026 contact rates, his 2026 ISO would be .160, instead of .157. His 2026 xISO would rise from .169 to .182. As a check, I performed the same calculation using the gameday zones (in and out of the strike zone), and the results were identical (.160 ISO and .182 xISO).

In summary, part of the reason Sánchez’s ISO and xISO numbers are below his 2023-2025 marks is that he is swinging too much and making more contact in the non-power zones (shadow, chase, and waste).

Sprint Speed

The second piece of the puzzle. Extra-base hits include doubles, triples, and home runs. Given that Sánchez has averaged less than two triples per season, he is not a triples threat. Accordingly, I will focus on home runs and doubles. So far in 2026, Sánchez has hit a home run every 24.2 at-bats, better than he did during the 2023-2025 period (every 28.3 at-bats). The MLB average from 2023 to 2025 was one homer every 29.0 at-bats. Historically, Sánchez has hit a home run at a slightly faster pace than the MLB average. Therefore, his power decline is reflected in his doubles. His at-bats divided by doubles rates are 15.7, 19.6 and 21.5 in 2023, 2024, and 2025, respectively. The 2023-2025 MLB average is 18.8 at-bats per double. Thus far in 2026, Sánchez’s doubles rate is one double every 30.3 at-bats. 

One reason his doubles rate has declined could be his diminished foot speed. His sprint speed percentile rankings are 54th, 46th, 40th, and 18th in 2023, 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Because foot speed and hitting with power contribute to producing doubles, Sánchez’s sprint speed decline could be a reason his rate of hitting doubles has dropped.

Bat Tracking

A barreled ball is determined by a combination of exit velocity and launch angle. During the 2023-2025 period, Sánchez had above-average barrel rates, both in barrels/BBE (batted ball event) and in barrels/PA (plate appearance). Thus far in 2026, his barrels/BBE rate is 7.2%, down from 11.8% during 2023-2025. The MLB average is 8.2%. Concerning his barrels/PA rate, he posted a 7.8% in 2023-2025, higher than 2026’s 5.3%. The MLB average was 5.5%.

What is going on? It is not the 98-mph exit velocity requirement for a batted ball. Concerning batted balls meeting the 98 mph or faster requirement, Sánchez’s 2026 rate (37%) is similar to his 2023-2025 rate (39%). Therefore, the reduced 2026 barrel rates must be due to a lower rate of batted balls that meet the launch angle requirement.

What could explain the lower rate of required launch angle on batted balls that would otherwise be barreled balls? It could be a notable change in Sánchez’s ideal attack angle, but his 2026 overall ideal attack angle rate is 48.9%, a tick lower than his 49.1% rate during the 2023-2025 period. Given that there is only a minor change in this area, Sánchez’s underlying swing mechanics do not explain the reduced barrel rates.

Unfortunately, I do not have any insights into the reduced barrel rates beyond the issue of small sample size, which is a legitimate explanation. Thus far in 2026, Sánchez has barreled seven pitches out of 97 batted ball events. If he had four more barreled balls, his 2026 barrel rates would be like those of the 2023-2025 period. Do not despair. The small sample is a positive indicator. Given Sánchez’s ideal attack angle history and his above-average exit velocity record, he should start to barrel balls at a rate consistent with the 2023-2025 period. 

The Last Word

Before joining the Toronto Blue Jays, Jesús Sánchez was a hitter with above-average power. However, thus far this season, his power production has been below expectations. Many factors help explain Sánchez’s reduced power numbers. The primary reason is higher swing and contact rates in zones that typically produce lower power numbers (for example, the shadow and chase zones). Another cause is a decline in foot speed. The final factor is the small size of the sample.

Hence, for the balance of the 2026 season, with more plate discipline (by chasing less) and a regression to his historical barrel rates and bat tracking metrics, Sánchez should return to his previous status as the power hitter the Blue Jays thought they were acquiring before this season began.