The Blue Jays sign Kevin Kiermaier

[jaysblue]

It doesn't appear we have much room to add more salary (before we're into luxury cap territory), so I think the Conforto dream is gone. I fully expect the FO wants to add a young, cheap, cost controlled OFer through trade (for one of our catchers), which would push Gurriel to the 4th OF spot.

 

Yeah I think the Conforto dream is gone as well. No way this team spends $15M + on him right now. If they add another outfielder, it's via trade or they just sign another 4th outfielder who can play CF.

[Jimcanuck]

Zips came out for the d'backs today. Is really high on Pfaadt.

[jaysblue]

Some RHB 4th OF options that could be signed cheap likely:

 

- Lewis Brinson: wouldn't be a bad upside guy who was considered a top prospect coming up. Just 28 still.

 

- Kevin Pillar: if this was 2015, just imagine haha. Having him as a backup wouldn't be bad.

[bronson44]

[Jimcanuck]

Some RHB 4th OF options that could be signed cheap likely:

 

- Lewis Brinson: wouldn't be a bad upside guy who was considered a top prospect coming up. Just 28 still.

 

- Kevin Pillar: if this was 2015, just imagine haha. Having him as a backup wouldn't be bad.

 

What are you smoking?

 

I hope you are suggesting minor league deal

[jaysblue]

What are you smoking?

 

I hope you are suggesting minor league deal

 

Yeah sorry should have specified haha. Yeah a minor league deal obviously. Probably has to be a dumpster bin 4th OF since most know they won't be playing everyday or platooning. Out of the guys who could be had on MiLB deals, Brinson or Pillar wouldn't be bad.

[Stangstag]

Zips came out for the d'backs today. Is really high on Pfaadt.

 

You could say he has a pretty Pfaadt projection

[Cbert]

If they want to avoid the CBT penalties, then yes it would make sense that KK is the starting CF and they try to find a cheaper (pre arb) OF via trade instead of going after Brantley or Conforto. Not sure that's realistic especially if Jansen is the one going the other way. Hard to see the D-Backs trading Thomas or McCarthy for Jansen, and the only other team that is looking for a catcher and might be interested in Jansen that has pre arb LHH OF's are the Tigers, but not sure Baddoo or Carpenter move the needle for the front office (maybe I'm wrong).

 

Apparently Conforto wants a multi year deal with an opt out (sounds like what Rodon got last year). I don't think Atkins does that. Brantley is going to need to DH a lot, and if Kirk is on the team (never mind Springer and Vlad needing DH days), he becomes less of a fit. If the Jays still have a little bit of wiggle room maybe Peralta is a possibility, but he'll still get a pretty sizable guarantee I would think.

 

I’d love to see the Jays go for McCarthy and Mantiply. I’d be okay with sending Moreno in that deal. I think both have 4-5 years of control left and fill the LH needs for a bat and a pen arm

[gruber92]

It doesn't appear we have much room to add more salary (before we're into luxury cap territory), so I think the Conforto dream is gone. I fully expect the FO wants to add a young, cheap, cost controlled OFer through trade (for one of our catchers), which would push Gurriel to the 4th OF spot.

 

So KK is higher on the outfield depth chart than Gurriel?

[Terminator]

Fangraphs article on the KK signing: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-kiermaier-is-finally-actually-a-blue-jay/

 

Here's the gist of it:

"The Jays are stronger with Kiermaier than without, but it’s fair to wonder if they’d be better off had they simply kept Hernández. Looking at the projections, it’s a wash – Kiermaier and Swanson look to combine for 1.5-2.5 WAR, while Hernández can expect to finish in the same ballpark. In Teo’s favor, he provides that value from one roster spot, and he also comes with significantly more upside – he received MVP votes as recently as 2021. On the other hand, Toronto can afford to sacrifice some run production for the sake of run prevention. They finished last season with the fourth-most runs scored in baseball, but only the 13th-fewest runs allowed. Ultimately, it feels like Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins just moved the furniture around."

 

I would agree with that but on the other hand Swanson has 3 years of control left and we also got a Top 10 prospect out of it. So if it's a net zero this year then it looks like a win moving forward.

[jaysblue]

So KK is higher on the outfield depth chart than Gurriel?

 

Yeah for defensive purposes for sure.

[Deadpool]

I know we've heard it all before with the "best shape of my life" stuff, but KK's saying the kinds of things that would get me excited were I not such a cynical f***...

[Terminator]

I know we've heard it all before with the "best shape of my life" stuff, but KK's saying the kinds of things that would get me excited were I not such a cynical f***...

 

Yeah he nailed the presser about as good as one could do.

[jaysblue]

Fangraphs article on the KK signing: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/kevin-kiermaier-is-finally-actually-a-blue-jay/

 

Here's the gist of it:

"The Jays are stronger with Kiermaier than without, but it’s fair to wonder if they’d be better off had they simply kept Hernández. Looking at the projections, it’s a wash – Kiermaier and Swanson look to combine for 1.5-2.5 WAR, while Hernández can expect to finish in the same ballpark. In Teo’s favor, he provides that value from one roster spot, and he also comes with significantly more upside – he received MVP votes as recently as 2021. On the other hand, Toronto can afford to sacrifice some run production for the sake of run prevention. They finished last season with the fourth-most runs scored in baseball, but only the 13th-fewest runs allowed. Ultimately, it feels like Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins just moved the furniture around."

 

I would agree with that but on the other hand Swanson has 3 years of control left and we also got a Top 10 prospect out of it. So if it's a net zero this year then it looks like a win moving forward.

 

Yeah Teo after 2023 likely gets 20M + per season if he puts together a 3 WAR season with the Mariners. Swanson is at least under control for 3 seasons which is the plus.

[G-Snarls]

Yeah for defensive purposes for sure.

 

No matter what they say now doesn't it seem likely that Schnieder will play Merrifield and Gurriel more vs LHP than Keirmaier? And then KK comes in late in the game for, defensive purposes.

 

(Assuming there are no more OF additions of course)

[Jimcanuck]

No matter what they say now doesn't it seem likely that Schnieder will play Merrifield and Gurriel more vs LHP than Keirmaier? And then KK comes in late in the game for, defensive purposes.

 

(Assuming there are no more OF additions of course)

 

Ya I expect Springer to move over to CF and KK on the bench against tough lefties at least. KK still will start at least 125 games IMO.

[G-Snarls]

Vs RHP

 

LF Gurriel

CF KK

RF Springer

 

VS LHP

 

LF Gurriel

CF Springer

RF Merryfield

 

If Springer has to DH

 

LF Gurriel

CF KK

RF Merryfield or Biggio

[Stangstag]

Vs RHP

 

LF Gurriel

CF KK

RF Springer

 

VS LHP

 

LF Gurriel

CF Springer

RF Merryfield

 

They might just opt to keep Springer in RF and have Merrifield play CF.

 

Also, it would really be nice if Springer played LF and Gurriel moved over to RF. It just makes more sense with their arms

[gruber92]

KK shouldn't be getting starts over Gurriel no matter who's pitching. Late inning defence, no problem.

[jaysblue]

No matter what they say now doesn't it seem likely that Schnieder will play Merrifield and Gurriel more vs LHP than Keirmaier? And then KK comes in late in the game for, defensive purposes.

 

(Assuming there are no more OF additions of course)

 

Yeah against tough lefties, I could see that happening with KK coming off the bench in the late innings. He'll get 125-130 starts for the season if he stays healthy.

[G-Snarls]

Yeah against tough lefties, I could see that happening with KK coming off the bench in the late innings. He'll get 125-130 starts for the season if he stays healthy.

 

For sure he will no matter what

[Stangstag]

KK shouldn't be getting starts over Gurriel no matter who's pitching. Late inning defence, no problem.

 

As-is, he won’t. Gurriel is the everyday LD. If we bring in someone like Conforto, then maybe Gurriel sits more

[Jimcanuck]

Hard to see the Jays retaining all of Merrifield, Espinal, and Biggio. Especially with Barger as depth in AAA.

 

Need Espinal as 3B/SS backup, but one of Merrifield and Biggio has to be getting moved.

[gruber92]

Vs RHP

 

LF Gurriel

CF KK

RF Springer

 

VS LHP

 

LF Gurriel

CF Springer

RF Merryfield

 

If Springer has to DH

 

LF Gurriel

CF KK

RF Merryfield or Biggio

 

Agreed, but Ross better add another LHH outfielder. Going with this to start the season is unacceptable in a contending year.

[Stangstag]

Agreed, but Ross better add another LHH outfielder. Going with this to start the season is unacceptable in a contending year.

 

Acting like the Rays never competed with KK as their CF…

[jaysblue]

Hard to see the Jays retaining all of Merrifield, Espinal, and Biggio. Especially with Barger as depth in AAA.

 

Need Espinal as 3B/SS backup, but one of Merrifield and Biggio has to be getting moved.

 

Not sure Merrifield can be dumped unless its for a player/pitcher making similar type money.

 

Think the Astros could be a fit for Biggio? Who can the Jays target if they pulled a deal with them?

[gruber92]

Acting like the Rays never competed with KK as their CF…

 

Shave off some years from KK and give us the Rays pen. KK can then make his 125 starts in CF.

[G-Snarls]

Acting like the Rays never competed with KK as their CF…

 

With lesser corner outfielrders than the Jays had

 

Though to be fair KK isn't his 2017 self anymore

[G-Snarls]

Agreed it's hard to roster 3 catchers and 3 utility players

[jaysblue]

Agreed it's hard to roster 3 catchers and 3 utility players

 

Yeah Jays will have to move either one catcher or one of Merrifield/Biggio or Espinal.