OF

[InsideThePark]

How is Bellinger running away with this poll? He's likely the worst of the 3 and might be the most expensive. Sure he won an MVP 3 years ago, he's been terrible ever since. But go ahead and take that 1% shot that he's got an upside the other 2 don't have. KK is the best option defensively but doesn't have enough upside offensively. Gallo is the clear answer here. Good enough defensively. By far the best offensive option despite the down year and because of that he won't be as expensive as he probably should be. Will likely benefit big from the new shift rules as well. I get that he's not really a CF which is an issue, but realistically if you get 1 of these guys and nobody equal or better then they're all terrible options, and we've already lost. I'll take the 1 with the most likely upside.

 

This group is a tweener group at best. If Gurriel is our 2nd outfielder, 1 of these is our 3rd outfielder and someone worse is 4th then we're screwed. If someone equal or better is our 3rd outfielder and this is a 4th outfielder or platoon then it's easily Gallo here

[Jimcanuck]

How is Bellinger running away with this poll? He's likely the worst of the 3 and might be the most expensive. Sure he won an MVP 3 years ago, he's been terrible ever since. But go ahead and take that 1% shot that he's got an upside the other 2 don't have. KK is the best option defensively but doesn't have enough upside offensively. Gallo is the clear answer here. Good enough defensively. By far the best offensive option despite the down year and because of that he won't be as expensive as he probably should be. Will likely benefit big from the new shift rules as well. I get that he's not really a CF which is an issue, but realistically if you get 1 of these guys and nobody equal or better then they're all terrible options, and we've already lost. I'll take the 1 with the most likely upside. This group is a tweener group at best. If Gurriel is our 2nd outfielder, 1 of these is our 3rd outfielder and someone worse is 4th then we're screwed. If someone equal or better is our 3rd outfielder and this is a 4th outfielder or platoon then it's easily Gallo here

 

For the same reasons MLB teams are pursuing Bellinger over the other two.

[glory]

A trade with Jansen and Grisham as the main pieces seems pretty reasonable. I'm not sure the Padres do it because they only have 3 OF's on their entire 40 man roster right now, so they'd need to acquire an OF or two before they moved Grisham, but if they were to do that, then it fills needs for both teams and it's the type of deal one should reasonably expect in return for Jansen. Grisham seems more likely to post a plus 100 wRC+ than Bellinger is, and he comes with 3 years of cheap control from ages 26-28.

 

Reality is, Jansen is not going to get any of the Arizona OF's, and likely won't get someone as controllable as Nootbaar. Best bet is to get a similarly valued and controlled player who fills an area of need. Obviously if the Jays did not have a catcher surplus, then Jansen would be an extension candidate right now rather than a trade chip, but since he is a trade chip, you have to factor in a lot of his deficiencies (health, lack of track record, control) into his value. He's probably not going to fetch as much as he should in a trade, which is why some have argued to trade one of the other catchers depending on the return.

[Terminator]

What would you actually be willing to trade Jansen for? You act as though he is basically untouchable. Keep in mind this is a player who has been injured so frequently he's only managed to appear in 142 games over the last two seasons. For comparisons sake George Springer, who takes far more s*** than Jansen for being injury prone, has still managed to appear in 211 games in the same span of time.

 

He’s the captain of the Jansen Fanboys and is on record as saying that Jansen is one of the most valuable assets in the game (I wish I were kidding). It’d take Babe Ruth in his prime to pry him away from Captain “Not So” Obvious.

[Captain_Obvious]

He’s the captain of the Jansen Fanboys and is on record as saying that Jansen is one of the most valuable assets in the game (I wish I were kidding). It’d take Babe Ruth in his prime to pry him away from Captain “Not So” Obvious.

 

Terminator, you got it wrong. Jansen would be one of the most valuable assets in the game only if we extend him for 3 more years beyond his arbitration. He is currently in 95.5th percentile only.

[Stangstag]

Why would San Diego do that?

 

I said earlier I don’t think they would… check page 3

[Spanky__99]

I said earlier I don’t think they would… check page 3

 

I'm on page 2???

[Spanky__99]

That makes absolutely no sense. Grisham has sucked for the past two years over 1000+ PA. There is nothing to rebound to because he has never been good to begin with. You can find mediocre OFers like him in the minors or in free agency.

 

lmao...

[Captain_Obvious]

lmao...

 

Grisham in 2021 and 2022: 2.2 WAR over 525 PAs on average. Both years were identical pretty much.

Kiermaier in 2021 and 2022: 1.8 WAR over 305 PAs on average.

Kiermaier in 2022 (his worst year of the past two): 1.1 WAR over 220 PAs

 

Do you want to engage in an actual discussion or just pretend like you know what you're talking about when you're obviously clueless?

[Spanky__99]

Grisham in 2021 and 2022: 2.2 WAR over 525 PAs on average. Both years were identical pretty much.

Kiermaier in 2021 and 2022: 1.8 WAR over 305 PAs on average.

Kiermaier in 2022 (his worst year of the past two): 1.1 WAR over 220 PAs

 

Do you want to engage in an actual discussion or just pretend like you know what you're talking about when you're obviously clueless?

 

What exactly would be the point of discussing anything with you? Apparently you think 2 win former top 100 prospect CF'ers going into there age 26 season are hanging out in the minors or available for a meh prospect. Just because you clowns are discussing a trade that will never happen, with you tearing down any player mentioned in said trade with Jano is bordering on crazy people s***, not interested. No thanks, tree stumps seem to be brighter than you, all these OF'ers mentioned suck. I said Good Day!

[Captain_Obvious]

What exactly would be the point of discussing anything with you? Apparently you think 2 win former top 100 prospect CF'ers going into there age 26 season are hanging out in the minors or available for a meh prospect. Just because you clowns are discussing a trade that will never happen, with you tearing down any player mentioned in said trade with Jano is bordering on crazy people s***, not interested. No thanks, tree stumps seem to be brighter than you, all these OF'ers mentioned suck. I said Good Day!

 

Ooooooh .. a player who might have cracked the top 100 prospects near the very bottom six years ago. How very sexy. 89K posts in a baseball forum and you're still a f***ing joke when it comes to the sport. Back your argument with numbers or just STFU.

[Spanky__99]

Ooooooh .. a player who might have cracked the top 100 prospects near the very bottom six years ago. How very sexy. 89K posts in a baseball forum and you're still a f***ing joke when it comes to the sport. Back your argument with numbers or just STFU.

 

Back numbers for what, meat? Grisham is projected for 2.4 WAR, that's the end of it, lol. I've forgotten more baseball than you will ever know, eat a truckload of dicks, *******.

[Terminator]

Ooooooh .. a player who might have cracked the top 100 prospects near the very bottom six years ago. How very sexy. 89K posts in a baseball forum and you're still a f***ing joke when it comes to the sport. Back your argument with numbers or just STFU.

 

Lol at Captain “Not So” Obvious talking down on player like Grisham when his entire fandom revolves around a glass bodied catcher who wears goofy ass goggles and is third on his own team’s depth chart

[Captain_Obvious]

Lol at Captain “Not So” Obvious talking down on player like Grisham when his entire fandom revolves around a glass bodied catcher who wears goofy ass goggles and is third on his own team’s depth chart

 

You do realize that you want to trade for a player who hit worse than Tapia last year. Right? No point in raging about a trade that will not happen, but hopefully we're all healthy and alive next year so that we can revisit this conversation. Terminator, I know you're really old, so you better not die on me before then.

[Terminator]

You do realize that you want to trade for a player who hit worse than Tapia last year. Right? No point in raging about a trade that will not happen, but hopefully we're all healthy and alive next year so that we can revisit this conversation. Terminator, I know you're really old, so you better not die on me before then.

 

Don’t you worry pal ole Terminator here will be posting on this board for years to come. Ever since I had my 3rd heart attack last August I’ve been taking care of myself and am down 6 pounds. After my last quarterly checkup my doc said I’m as strong as an ox. I laughed in his face when he said I needed to quit drinking but other than that there are no problems.

 

So I’ll be happy to revisit not only what happens next year but I’ll be there to give you a big ole I told you so each and every time Jansen hits the IL. You can count on it

Edited November 30, 2022 by Deadpool
C'mon man.

[max silver]

You do realize that you want to trade for a player who hit worse than Tapia last year. Right? No point in raging about a trade that will not happen, but hopefully we're all healthy and alive next year so that we can revisit this conversation. Terminator, I know you're really old, so you better not die on me before then.

 

Are you so dense that you think the only way to contribute value is with the bat? Grisham is an elite defender in center field (13 OAA/8 DRS) vs Tapia who is a buffoon in the outfield (-4 OAA/-4 DRS). Grisham also outproduced Tapia on the bases as well (5.8 BsR vs 2.0 for Tapia)

[connorp]

Are you so dense that you think the only way to contribute value is with the bat? Grisham is an elite defender in center field (13 OAA/8 DRS) vs Tapia who is a buffoon in the outfield (-4 OAA/-4 DRS). Grisham also outproduced Tapia on the bases as well (5.8 BsR vs 2.0 for Tapia)

 

Come playoff times, the difference between Grisham and Average Joe defender is pretty minimal. The chance they may flag down a fly ball an average defender can’t is far outweighed by what their bat brings to the table. Yuck

[connorp]

Save money and assets and roll with JBJ

[Captain_Obvious]

Save money and assets and roll with JBJ

 

connorp gets it. You can get Grisham's overall production in much cheaper ways.

[Jimcanuck]

Lol at Captain “Not So” Obvious talking down on player like Grisham when his entire fandom revolves around a glass bodied catcher who wears goofy ass goggles and is third on his own team’s depth chart

 

Stop slagging the Jays players. Thanks.

[Terminator]

Stop slagging the Jays players. Thanks.

 

Give me a break. Should Schneider give them orange slices and take them for ice cream after the games too?

[Jimcanuck]

Give me a break. Should Schneider give them orange slices and take them for ice cream after the games too?

 

Yes, but exclude the two fatties Kirk and Vlad.

 

Just having fun, mate.

[Olerud363]

Back numbers for what, meat? Grisham is projected for 2.4 WAR, that's the end of it, lol. I've forgotten more baseball than you will ever know, eat a truckload of dicks, *******.

 

 

Haven't been on the board much lately but just logged on... see Grisham being discussed. First thing I do is check his fangraphs page... Yeah. 2.2 WAR a year the last 3 years, including pandemic shortened 60 game year, and last year when he hit .185.

 

If he wants numbers he should put Grisham's numbers in context with league averages, and park factors. Grissham hit .184 in perhaps the worst hitters park in baseball, in the worst hitters year in most of our lifetimes, and is only 25 and had power and some walks.

 

So overall hitting .184 he still was an above average player. The batting average was probably a bit fluky too, and he could easily hit .240 in a better park and better hitters year (which presumably 2023 will be with the rule changes).

[Captain_Obvious]

Haven't been on the board much lately but just logged on... see Grisham being discussed. First thing I do is check his fangraphs page... Yeah. 2.2 WAR a year the last 3 years, including pandemic shortened 60 game year, and last year when he hit .185.

 

If he wants numbers he should put Grisham's numbers in context with league averages, and park factors. Grissham hit .184 in perhaps the worst hitters park in baseball, in the worst hitters year in most of our lifetimes, and is only 25 and had power and some walks.

 

So overall hitting .184 he still was an above average player. The batting average was probably a bit fluky too, and he could easily hit .240 in a better park and better hitters year (which presumably 2023 will be with the rule changes).

 

His statcast underlying numbers indicate that he is bad regardless of park.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/trent-grisham-663757?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

[Olerud363]

His statcast underlying numbers indicate that he is bad regardless of park.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/trent-grisham-663757?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Yes, but a bad hitter will hit better in a better hitters park. I'm not saying he is a good hitter. Just that he's not a .184 hitter.

 

1. His statcasts xBA last year is .204

2. His statcasts xBA career is .230

 

I honestly don't know how sophisticated xBA is. Is the .230 xBA what he'd be expected to hit in a neutral park? Or what he would be expected to hit in Sandiego given neutral luck?

 

Parks can be bad for hitters because of dimensions, altitude, humidity, winds, visibility, foul territory, turf properties, and probably other stuff. Some of this might also effect the statscast numbers (visibility at least).

 

Aren't all the parks on the west coast, except the one in Anaheim, pitchers parks? San Diego, Seattle, Oakland, San Francisco and LA. None of them have huge dimensions. I believe those 5 are near the coast, but Anaheim isn't. Any reason they are pitchers park?

[John_Havok]

Yes, but a bad hitter will hit better in a better hitters park. I'm not saying he is a good hitter. Just that he's not a .184 hitter.

 

1. His statcasts xBA last year is .204

2. His statcasts xBA career is .230

 

I honestly don't know how sophisticated xBA is. Is the .230 xBA what he'd be expected to hit in a neutral park? Or what he would be expected to hit in Sandiego given neutral luck?

 

Parks can be bad for hitters because of dimensions, altitude, humidity, winds, visibility, foul territory, turf properties, and probably other stuff. Some of this might also effect the statscast numbers (visibility at least).

 

Aren't all the parks on the west coast, except the one in Anaheim, pitchers parks? San Diego, Seattle, Oakland, San Francisco and LA. None of them have huge dimensions. I believe those 5 are near the coast, but Anaheim isn't. Any reason they are pitchers park?

 

The marine layer and humidity.

[Captain_Obvious]

Yes, but a bad hitter will hit better in a better hitters park. I'm not saying he is a good hitter. Just that he's not a .184 hitter.

 

1. His statcasts xBA last year is .204

2. His statcasts xBA career is .230

 

I honestly don't know how sophisticated xBA is. Is the .230 xBA what he'd be expected to hit in a neutral park? Or what he would be expected to hit in Sandiego given neutral luck?

 

Parks can be bad for hitters because of dimensions, altitude, humidity, winds, visibility, foul territory, turf properties, and probably other stuff. Some of this might also effect the statscast numbers (visibility at least).

 

Aren't all the parks on the west coast, except the one in Anaheim, pitchers parks? San Diego, Seattle, Oakland, San Francisco and LA. None of them have huge dimensions. I believe those 5 are near the coast, but Anaheim isn't. Any reason they are pitchers park?

 

The main contributor to his drop in xBA is a major increase in K% in 2022. Park had little to do with his awful hitting in 2022. This is confirmed by his home and away numbers which are almost identical.

[max silver]

The main contributor to his drop in xBA is a major increase in K% in 2022. Park had little to do with his awful hitting in 2022. This is confirmed by his home and away numbers which are almost identical.

 

Expected batting average has nothing to do with k rate, it's only relevant for batted balls. It looks like somebody needs to brush up on his statistics.

 

(For f***s sakes, turns out it was me who needs to brush up on statistics)

Edited November 28, 2022 by max silver

[Captain_Obvious]

Expected batting average has nothing to do with k rate, it's only relevant for batted balls. It looks like somebody needs to brush up on his statistics.

 

A player’s xBA for the season is calculated by taking the sum of all xBA from individual batted ball events. The sum is then divided by all batted ball events. After that, strikeouts are factored in which results in a season-long Expected Batting Average.

 

https://www.fantraxhq.com/statcast-101-expected-stats/

 

Did you really expect SOs NOT to factor in xBA? Did you think the xBA of a player who strikes out 50% of the time to the be the same as one who strikes out at 10% if the the rest of their metrics are the same?

[connorp]

Expected batting average has nothing to do with k rate, it's only relevant for batted balls. It looks like somebody needs to brush up on his statistics.

 

One could equally roll their eyes when someone is talking about xBA of .204 in the context of “he’s not that bad” lol. It’s pretty common for guys like Biggio to have their best years at first before all the adjustments expose the fact that they’re not a mlb hitter. Again, you can sign guys like JBJ and bring them in as late inning replacements. Think bigger