Jays Calling Up Moreno???

[Olerud363]

What ifs are just an empty exercise. What if he somehow had 80 speed? What if he could telekinetically make his balls drop in for hits? What would his value be then?

 

You are completely missing the point. 80 speed would give him more value on the basepaths. So if he had 80 speed he'd be more valuable.

 

Height gives him no more value. However height may be a predictor of future performance, it may be a source of prejudice, it may be both. So asking the question 'what would his value be if he was tall' is useful as to trade negotiations. If his trade "value" would be higher if he was tall, but his real value isn't, it may not be a good idea to trade him as he is under-valued.

[Laika]

If Kirk's trade value would be higher if he was tall and had a complete 2020 season in the high minors and got high up on the lists... then he's under-rated. That's all.

 

Not necessarily. If the premise is true then one of the following things follows:

 

a) he's underrated

the body issues are a valid reason to value him less.

 

on , maybe being fat and generally unathletic leads to aging harder and earlier and/or added injury risk. seems logical enough.

[connorp]

You are completely missing the point. 80 speed would give him more value on the basepaths. So if he had 80 speed he'd be more valuable.

 

Height gives him no more value. However height may be a predictor of future performance, it may be a source of prejudice, it may be both. So asking the question 'what would his value be if he was tall' is useful as to trade negotiations. If his trade "value" would be higher if he was tall, but his real value isn't, it may not be a good idea to trade him as he is under-valued.

 

This is common pre-and-post draft with pitchers. There’s a whole risk profile with it. No sense being like “what if this 5’11 175lb SP was 6’4 235”

[Laika]

This is common pre-and-post draft with pitchers. There’s a whole risk profile with it. No sense being like “what if this 5’11 175lb SP was 6’4 235”

 

Well there is size bias.

 

Like, in 2012 Marcus Stroman should have gone like 6th in the draft. But he was 5'7" on a good day so he went 22nd. His numbers were probably better than Kyle Zimmer but Zimmer was 6'3". And other players picked ahead of him like Courtney Hawkins were beeeeg and stroooong.

 

Zimmer 88 IP 104 Ks

Stroman 98 IP 136 Ks

Appel 123 IP 130 Ks

Heaney 118 IP 140 Ks

Gausman 123 IP 135 Ks

Wacha 113 IP 116 Ks

Stratton 109 IP 127 Ks

 

All of those college arms went ahead of Stroman. None had a stuff argument for going ahead of him (probably). Most of the arguments were about size and frame.

[connorp]

Well there is size bias.

 

Like, in 2012 Marcus Stroman should have gone like 6th in the draft. But he was 5'7" on a good day so he went 22nd. His numbers were probably better than Kyle Zimmer but Zimmer was 6'3". And other players picked ahead of him like Courtney Hawkins were beeeeg and stroooong.

 

Zimmer 88 IP 104 Ks

Stroman 98 IP 136 Ks

Appel 123 IP 130 Ks

Heaney 118 IP 140 Ks

Gausman 123 IP 135 Ks

Wacha 113 IP 116 Ks

Stratton 109 IP 127 Ks

 

All of those college arms went ahead of Stroman. None had a stuff argument for going ahead of him (probably). Most of the arguments were about size and frame.

 

Yes, but you must ask yourself if you’re forming an opinion based on anecdotal evidence. Is the size bias not wise because outliers come along to go against the grain?

[Laika]

Yes, but you must ask yourself if you’re forming an opinion based on anecdotal evidence. Is the size bias not wise because outliers come along to go against the grain?

 

I don't know but it's easy to study

 

I have read articles that show that team's overreact to weird players.

[max silver]

You are completely missing the point. 80 speed would give him more value on the basepaths. So if he had 80 speed he'd be more valuable.

 

Height gives him no more value. However height may be a predictor of future performance, it may be a source of prejudice, it may be both. So asking the question 'what would his value be if he was tall' is useful as to trade negotiations. If his trade "value" would be higher if he was tall, but his real value isn't, it may not be a good idea to trade him as he is under-valued.

 

Kirk's height isn't an issue now but it certainly might be in the future. If his body fails to hold up to the rigors of catching his short stature will limit his versatility as he is far too short to play first base, not to mention the short arms further limiting his total wingspan. His bat is almost certainly good enough to be a full time DH in the future though.

[Olerud363]

This is common pre-and-post draft with pitchers. There’s a whole risk profile with it. No sense being like “what if this 5’11 175lb SP was 6’4 235”

 

I think that point is valid pre-draft, if there are hundred of 5'11 pitchers and hundreds of 6'4 pitchers, with the same high school or college stats and pitch metrics, and you can show that the tall group always makes it further. Or alternative maybe there are 200 good pitchers in the tall group, and only 50 in the short group, and of course more tall ones make it because there was more to start with.

 

It breaks down for Stroman or Kirk, when they make the majors against the odds and there isn't a lot of data on what comes next. Like who is Kirk's comparison group? Guys who are almost like Joe Mauer statistically except fat short Mexicans physically?

 

Did Stroman in the end under-perform because he was short? Like if you only knew his stats, velocity, and spin rates in 2014 would you have predicted a better or worse career?

[Jonn]

Well he didn’t hit for any power at AAA. Lets see what he can do up here. Not expecting a lot.

[Stangstag]

Well he didn’t hit for any power at AAA. Lets see what he can do up here. Not expecting a lot.

 

Yeah he had great power in AA but for some reason his power numbers took a nosedive in AAA while his AVG and OBP remained great.

 

Maybe the new ball? Idk

[Carlos Danger]

So everyone is excited.. BUT, at the end of the day, is he going to provide more value at catcher then Jansen is now or Kirk is.... The answer is probably not.. However, he could suck and lessen his trade value... If he does do well, someone has to go... Not a bad problem to have if that is the situation, but unless they are showcasing him.. gambling on him doing well. I just don't see the upside to bring him up now.... Collins is not hurting us..

[Daniel Labude]

[Jimcanuck]

So everyone is excited.. BUT, at the end of the day, is he going to provide more value at catcher then Jansen is now or Kirk is.... The answer is probably not.. However, he could suck and lessen his trade value... If he does do well, someone has to go... Not a bad problem to have if that is the situation, but unless they are showcasing him.. gambling on him doing well. I just don't see the upside to bring him up now.... Collins is not hurting us..

 

The upside is a possible WS win.

[Daniel Labude]

So everyone is excited.. BUT, at the end of the day, is he going to provide more value at catcher then Jansen is now or Kirk is.... The answer is probably not.. However, he could suck and lessen his trade value... If he does do well, someone has to go... Not a bad problem to have if that is the situation, but unless they are showcasing him.. gambling on him doing well. I just don't see the upside to bring him up now.... Collins is not hurting us..

 

Collins will be hurting us, especially if the plan was to keep Kirk in his limited weekly catching duties. He shouldn't hit vs lefties and he isnt good defensively, maybe even as a pitch caller. Basically Moreno is needed more than it is gambling/showcasing imo

[Eat My Shatkins]

If Moreno performs, what are the chances that they keep the 3 headed catcher monster rolling with Jansen/Kirk/Moreno?

 

At least for this season anyways...

 

Doesn't seem overly crazy to me.

[max silver]

So everyone is excited.. BUT, at the end of the day, is he going to provide more value at catcher then Jansen is now or Kirk is.... The answer is probably not.. However, he could suck and lessen his trade value... If he does do well, someone has to go... Not a bad problem to have if that is the situation, but unless they are showcasing him.. gambling on him doing well. I just don't see the upside to bring him up now.... Collins is not hurting us..

 

I don't get the feeling that the front office is remotely interested in trading Moreno, if they were Jose Ramirez would likely be a Blue Jay.

[Ehjays]

 

Yes great read:

 

TORONTO -- One of Gabriel Moreno’s earliest baseball memories is retiring. He was eight or nine years old and had no other choice.

 

Moreno’s family couldn’t afford to keep him in organized baseball in Venezuela. Instead, he played soccer in the streets of Barquisimeto, which is where an unspectacular baseball story could have ended.

 

Instead, Moreno is the next great hope for the Toronto Blue Jays, one of baseball’s brightest young prospects at 22 years old. He’s gone from a $25,000 signing in August of 2016, barely enough to register as a blip on the radar, to the jewel of the system -- and he's set to join the big league club for the upcoming series in Detroit, per a source.

 

Where the star catcher stands now is not where the arrows always pointed. It was Moreno, his family and the community that lifted him, which all led to this moment, and the many moments the Blue Jays hope to see Moreno shine in for years to come.

 

This is the story of Gabriel Moreno.

 

The Kid from Barquisimeto

To understand Moreno’s journey, you must first understand the Venezuela he was born into, the youngest of four children.

 

Food shortages and extreme poverty began to take hold of Venezuela in the late 2000s, furthered by a country-wide energy crisis that contributed to the nation’s ongoing economic decline.

 

Moreno’s family didn’t come away unscathed. His father, José Moreno, worked in street paving in their native Barquisimeto and its surrounding areas. When the crisis hit, everyone’s priorities had to shift quickly.

 

“My dad wasn’t making much money,” said Moreno, born in 2000. “He couldn’t find much money, and when he did, it was for food, not for baseball.”

 

What looked like the end of a childhood hobby, though, was soon resurrected as the beginning of a big league dream by the man who became family to Moreno. Jose Mejia, the president of 12 de Octubre, a local baseball school, was one of the first people to believe in the promise of Moreno’s bat, taking him under his wing and putting him back on the field when he was 11.

 

“He picked me up, dropped me off, made everything easier for me,” said Moreno. “He helped me return to baseball. Thanks to him, I was able to go to the academy that signed me. I’m so grateful for him. Whenever I see him, I ask for his blessing. He’s been like a father to me and his whole family has helped me so much.”

 

Mejia understood the reality of the Moreno family and what it would mean to let Gabriel’s promise disappear in a time of scarcity. Unwilling to let that happen, Mejia would lodge Moreno in his house for days at a time, essentially welcoming him into his own family.

 

“Every tournament was an expense for his dad,” said Mejia. “... Of course, at that time, the mindset was different. The economic situation was unfavorable. Since I was always around the baseball world, I wanted to help in any way I could.

 

“He was like a son to me, and I was like his father at that moment.”

 

José Moreno, in the meantime, continued to support his son in any way he could -- even if that involved Gabriel being away from home, spending his days with another family.

 

“He worked so hard,” said Gabriel of his father. “He always did everything in his power so I could play baseball. My dad is the best for helping me keep my focus on the game.”

 

That focus started to pay off when Gabriel gained more recognition in Venezuela -- something Mejia had set as a goal from the start.

 

“He couldn’t stay hidden.”

 

At 12, Moreno joined Carlos Torres’ Champions Baseball Academy, according to Mejia. He was one step closer to the end goal.

 

“When I was in Venezuela, all I wanted was to be called to play in the Dominican and play ball, because I wanted to help my family forward,” said Moreno. “Truthfully, it was a difficult time, because I was very attached to my dad and my family. It was difficult, but little by little I got used to it. Because someone who has this much love for this ball has to make lots of sacrifices.”

 

Uncovering the hidden gem

Everyone involved remembers their first Gabriel Moreno story.

 

Andrew Tinnish, the Blue Jays’ VP of international scouting, remembers hearing those early reports from Francisco Plasencia, who played professionally for a decade before joining Toronto as a scout.

 

All of these stories share the same asterisk, though. Moreno’s name wasn’t the one they were expecting to hear.

 

“Depending on the size of the academy, they may have 10-12 [players] or 30-40 with different age groups, different classes,” Tinnish explained. “Often, you’re going to go in and an agent is going to showcase specific guys. They’ll put out a small group, maybe two or three standout guys. That’s who you’ll see take the bulk of the live at-bats if they play some type of game. Gabriel was not in that group.”

 

Instead, Tinnish remembers, Moreno made himself part of it.

 

These priority groups typically needed another hitter to round out the group, or an extra bat to face a pitcher that scouts were there to see. Every time Plasencia looked, he saw Moreno running to the front of that group. He soon proved he belonged, too, driving the ball to all fields and showing a natural hitting ability that kept Plasencia watching.

 

Still, Plasencia wanted to take this a step further. It’s easy for young players to seem eager on a day they know their academy’s bleachers will be littered with MLB scouts. They’re coached for years to perform in that exact moment, not just at the plate but with every single step they take in front of scouts.

 

That’s when Plasencia planned to return in secret. On a day Moreno didn’t know scouts were coming, Plasencia was tucked away, watching.

 

“I saw this kid cleaning the field, helping to bring in all of the balls from BP to the pitcher. I never see that. I was a player for 10 years and I’d never seen a player do that,” Plasencia said. “If he knew I was there? Sure. But I’d been there a couple of times without telling anybody. I saw this kid doing the same thing every day for three or four days. I talked to the groundskeeper there, and he said, ‘Yes. This kid has done this every day since he got to this academy.’”

 

Even for baseball’s No. 4 prospect, this is how all of the stories begin. Not with the player, but the person.

 

“Parts of this are his athleticism, his vision and his coordination, but the absolute most significant piece of this is his upbringing,” said Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins. “He’s also an exceptional listener, which I find to be a great attribute of talent.”

 

This was the determining factor for Plasencia, too. Signing 16-year-olds is all about projecting the growth of physical talents, but these are still boys growing into men. With trust in Moreno the person, his belief in the physical tools only grew, which again Plasencia brings back to Moreno’s family.

 

“They’re the kind of people that, it doesn’t matter if they have money or not, they’re still the same. For me, that family is unique,” Plasencia said. “This kid has that on his heart and his mind. For me, that’s why he’s so good. What touched me the most, and the most important thing to see in a player, is for him to do all of this and be the same as he was six or seven years ago.”

 

Certain in what he saw, Plasencia brought in Sandy Rosario, the Blue Jays’ director of Latin American operations, for a longer look. Moreno was an infielder at the time, playing shortstop and second, but the Blue Jays had asked him to step behind home plate and make some throws. Those throws hit the mark, so when Rosario came to town, they put Moreno in catcher’s gear.

 

That Monday was rough. Moreno looked like a young kid wearing gear he’d never worn before, but by Tuesday, he was already looking better by the hour. At this point, Plasencia and Rosario knew three things. Moreno could hit, he had some natural talent to work with and he wanted to be better. That was enough, so the $25,000 contract was signed.

 

Around when Moreno signed, he was in the middle of playing a state tournament on a club with Mejia, who’d done so much to get him to that moment. Moreno had to stop playing initially, but this was a long tournament, stretching over a couple of months. Eventually, Moreno’s agent gave Mejia a call and said that Moreno was cleared to play in the final games of the tournament.

 

Mejia slotted his unofficial son back into the lineup.

 

“His first at-bat, at 3-0, he hit it out of the park as if he were a grown man,” Mejia remembers. “From then on, his steps as a professional player began.”

 

Developing a star

Moreno enjoyed some early success as an 18-year-old in the Rookie GCL and Appalachian League, but his full-season debut with Single-A Lansing in 2019 put him squarely on the radar.

 

On that Lugnuts team was Jordan Groshans, now the Blue Jays’ No. 3 prospect. Groshans has come up through the system with Moreno, including the ‘21 season with Double-A New Hampshire where Moreno hit .373 with eight home runs and a 1.092 OPS in just 32 games before breaking his left thumb. That surge skyrocketed him up prospect lists.

 

“I’m just so proud of him. He’s like a brother to me. It’s really good to see how much love he’s getting, how much support he’s getting and how far he’s come,” Groshans said. “Everybody else knows how much of a superstar he is, but it seems like he doesn’t. It’s normal for him. He shows up, goofy, laughing and joking around with his teammates, then goes out and goes 4-for-4 like it’s nothing. He’s just a joy to be around and a great teammate.”

 

Coaches echo Moreno’s teammates throughout the Blue Jays’ system. He left an immediate impression playing winter ball with Cardenales de Lara in Venezuela for two offseasons as well, during which he met and played under Carlos Mendoza, who’s also the bench coach for the New York Yankees.

 

“He walked into that clubhouse in the middle of a year and fit right in,” Mendoza said. “It was just another guy in the clubhouse. His interactions with his teammates, joking around. And when they were pulling for him, that tells you a lot about the person Gabriel is. He was special.”

 

Last offseason, Moreno was with Lara to DH, getting him more at-bats after a shortened season. What Mendoza remembers, though, is finding Moreno at the field early every single day, going through drills as a catcher and third baseman even though he wouldn’t be playing defensively.

 

“This is a guy that is a No. 1 prospect,” Mendoza explained. “Everybody talks about him coming from the Fall League, and he walks into a clubhouse full of veterans, guys from all over. And he was just very humble, he listened, very respectful. Credit to his parents for raising a great kid and the Blue Jays for continuing to do that. Very humble, very quiet, willing to learn, asking good questions.”

 

In Triple-A Buffalo this season, Moreno is playing under manager Casey Candaele, who’s seen it all in this game. Candaele played 18 professional seasons, including nine in the Majors before moving on to coach with the Mariners, Rangers and Blue Jays.

 

Candaele remembers his Moreno moment, too. It was a throw.

 

With a runner at second base, Moreno picked a slider out of the dirt with a lefty in the box, dragging Moreno behind the hitter’s body. The baserunner broke for third, thinking the ball would get past Moreno, but he’d kept it in front of him. Moreno twitched his body away from the hitter to create a throwing path, but immediately saw his own pitcher was in the way now, so he made a second adjustment to throw around both players. The throw was a rocket. The runner was out. This all happened in a split second.

 

“I asked him what he was thinking, and he explained exactly what transpired,” Candaele remembers. “Just to be able to do that in the moment is pretty instinctually advanced. That’s something that, when it happened, I stopped and said, ‘Man, that’s special.’"

 

Soon enough, everyone will have their first big league story with Moreno. He’s the organization’s catcher of the future with the potential to not just be good, but to be a franchise cornerstone, growing old and chasing championships alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette.

 

When that moment comes, Moreno will think of his father, mother and three older siblings. He’ll also think of Mejia. He’s family, too.

 

“I have no words. I have two sons and he’s like the third,” Mejia said. “He’s such a humble kid, so honest, hard-working. He carries his values at the root of his humility. And with everything he’s accomplished, it hasn’t changed the way he sees the world. He’s still the same ball player and the same person. As a person, I can guarantee it, he’s better than as a ball player. So, imagine how great that is.”

 

That moment will bring an ending and a beginning. Far from Barquisimeto, where Moreno played soccer on streets paved by his father, he’s building on the many moments that almost never were.

 

“If I tell this story, no one believes me.”

[Dagagad]

What ifs are just an empty exercise. What if he somehow had 80 speed? What if he could telekinetically make his balls drop in for hits? What would his value be then?

 

The latter 80FV, the former I guess half a grade better than he is now.

[Dagagad]

So everyone is excited.. BUT, at the end of the day, is he going to provide more value at catcher then Jansen is now or Kirk is.... The answer is probably not.. However, he could suck and lessen his trade value... If he does do well, someone has to go... Not a bad problem to have if that is the situation, but unless they are showcasing him.. gambling on him doing well. I just don't see the upside to bring him up now.... Collins is not hurting us..

 

I think this means they are almost certainly not trading Moreno. They wouldn’t bring him up if they were seriously concerned about inevitable struggles.

[Dagagad]

Kirk's height isn't an issue now but it certainly might be in the future. If his body fails to hold up to the rigors of catching his short stature will limit his versatility as he is far too short to play first base, not to mention the short arms further limiting his total wingspan. His bat is almost certainly good enough to be a full time DH in the future though.

 

Should we really be that concerned about this. We have him until he’s 28. That’s not that old.

[max silver]

Should we really be that concerned about this. We have him until he’s 28. That’s not that old.

 

I have zero concern about this myself, it's just a long term possibility. I certainly would be wary of any kind of extension with Kirk given his body type, he's such an anomaly it's hard to tell how he'll hold up physically.

[Jimcanuck]

Sure hope the Jays are bringing Moreno's family and other "dad" up for his debut.

[L54]

Should we really be that concerned about this. We have him until he’s 28. That’s not that old.

 

Exactly. Not very concerned about him aging right now. He’s gotten in better shape, proven he can legitimately catch, and his stat cast page is entirely red.

[Brownie19]

Exactly. Not very concerned about him aging right now. He’s gotten in better shape, proven he can legitimately catch, and his stat cast page is entirely red.

 

It's f***ing glorious really.

[L54]

It's f***ing glorious really.

 

He’s like Yordan Alvarez but compressed into a 5’6 frame

[Carlos Danger]

I don't get the feeling that the front office is remotely interested in trading Moreno, if they were Jose Ramirez would likely be a Blue Jay.

 

I get what you are saying. However, I doubt in reality that was ever an option. If it was and you have an opportunity to have JRAM on this team, which is a win now Team, you do it, to not, would be asinine IMO.

[keggy]

You don't want your catcher to be tall. It's much harder to receive the baseball and can take a toll on your knees. Height was the number one long term concern for both Joe Mauer and Matt Wieters as prospects.

 

Kirk's weight is a serious long term issue, but he does appear to be losing weight each offseason.

[Laika]

I get what you are saying. However, I doubt in reality that was ever an option. If it was and you have an opportunity to have JRAM on this team, which is a win now Team, you do it, to not, would be asinine IMO.

 

Well even if it was on the table it would have been Moreno plus three to five other pieces.

[L54]

You don't want your catcher to be tall. It's much harder to receive the baseball and can take a toll on your knees. Height was the number one long term concern for both Joe Mauer and Matt Wieters as prospects.

 

Kirk's weight is a serious long term issue, but he does appear to be losing weight each offseason.

 

Never thought of it like this but makes total sense

[wilko]

Exactly. Not very concerned about him aging right now. He’s gotten in better shape, proven he can legitimately catch, and his stat cast page is entirely red.

 

Even his sprint speed?