Toronto Blue Jays Roster Discussion (2022)

[Jimcanuck]

Thanks. It's not going so well for him. Hitting is hard. I find it a bit odd that it's the fibula causing issues.

 

He played through it. A lot of pressure/stress on the legs during the swing, he made changes to manage the pain..... I guess.

[Brownie19]

Morosi says it's better than 50/50 chance Bellinger is traded or released today.

[Brownie19]

Can someone let me know why Brandon Nimmo is going to command so much money? Looking at the numbers its very whelming, unless I'm underplaying defensive stats

 

He's a career 134 wRC+ hitter coming off a 5.4 WAR season?

[G-Snarls]

Can't remember where I read it, but a connected writer says the Jays are determined to move Springer to a corner for health / playing time reasons.

 

And he just can't seem to stay healthy enough to play more than 120 or so games on defense anyway. So when he's on the IL or being used as DH you really need someone who can step in and play center even if you're going to TRY to keep Springer as your primary CF for a while longer.

[Dagagad]

Bellinger is a good bet imo because he can really play CF. Alot of upside.

 

I’d be fine really focusing on pitching and being more speculative at CF.

[Spanky99]

Can't remember where I read it, but a connected writer says the Jays are determined to move Springer to a corner for health / playing time reasons.

 

That's just conjecture, but I understand that point of view. Who's available at CF next year, as this year it's thin?

[Sorrow]

Nimmo is elite defensively in the 90th percentile iirc. He gets on base like a fiend and the two years he was injured it was due to a collapsed lung and a bulging disc. He’s one of the best free agents available on the market and not only is basically Teoscar with the bat he improves the defence from one average and two terrible defenders to two good and one terrible in the OF.

[John_Havok]

Can someone let me know why Brandon Nimmo is going to command so much money? Looking at the numbers its very whelming, unless I'm underplaying defensive stats

 

I don't know what numbers youre looking at then. Dude is an absolutely solid player that can play defense in CF on par with Springer. His value doesnt come from HRs though, its from getting on base and hitting the gaps.

[Spanky99]

And he just can't seem to stay healthy enough to play more than 120 or so games on defense anyway. So when he's on the IL or being used as DH you really need someone who can step in and play center even if you're going to TRY to keep Springer as your primary CF for a while longer.

 

That's why I mentioned Conforto, and there's Merriweather and Lukes.

[connorp]

I don't know what numbers youre looking at then. Dude is an absolutely solid player that can play defense in CF on par with Springer. His value doesnt come from HRs though, its from getting on base and hitting the gaps.

 

Still, the lack of other premium targets is going to put his salary in a likely uncomfortable range. I hope the Jays pass if that’s the case

[Laika]

Nimmo is elite defensively in the 90th percentile iirc. He gets on base like a fiend and the two years he was injured it was due to a collapsed lung and a bulging disc. He’s one of the best free agents available on the market and not only is basically Teoscar with the bat he improves the defence from one average and two terrible defenders to two good and one terrible in the OF.

 

Metrics might have loved his defense in 2022 but if you look at his whole career he's probably NOT anything close to an elite CF/OF.

[John_Havok]

Still, the lack of other premium targets is going to put his salary in a likely uncomfortable range. I hope the Jays pass if that’s the case

 

Possibly, but a 130 WRC+ CF with plus D (not elite D) is a pretty valuable asset, regardless of how many other options there aer in free agency at the same position. LIke, I dont really see any of the SS available this year taking less than market value just because there's 4 of them available - unless they are willing to take hometown discount or AA hypnotizes one of their agents.

 

Actually, looking at the last few seasons, Nimmo is basically Springer, only a few years younger. 20-25 million per year is probably what he should be getting. Probably on a 6-8 year length. Springer signed his 6/150m at age 31, Nimmo is 29. 8 years and around 200M would not be shocking at all

[Laika]

Nimmo is a -3.4 UZR/150 in CF in his career and -1.5 in the OF generally.

 

His OAA was a nice +6 in CF in 2022 but in 2021 it was +4, 2020 it was -4, and 2019 it was 0.

 

He just kind of looks like a neutral defender in CF. I mean you can't sign him approaching 30 and think you are getting plus defense for years out there. You might get a year or two of good D but you've gotta think he's a corner OF in 2025.

 

Weird player to project long term because of the lack of pop.

 

You just REALLY prefer to give big money to guys who have elite athleticism, or elite pop, or some other elite tools.

 

Nimmo is al elite EYE but everything else is kind iffy or up and down.

[Laika]

I mean you are getting Cavan Biggio level physical tools if you sign Nimmo. Think about that.

[max silver]

Metrics might have loved his defense in 2022 but if you look at his whole career he's probably NOT anything close to an elite CF/OF.

 

Further to that 2021 is the only season where there is any consensus among the publicly available defensive metrics regarding his center field play. Even in 2022 Nimmo rated below average by both DRS and UZR.

[John_Havok]

I mean you are getting Cavan Biggio level physical tools if you sign Nimmo. Think about that.

 

True, but in Nimmos case those tools have translated on the field to much greater success. So, while you would absolutely expect non-star level play in a few years, the win-now thought process would probably allow for his signing.

 

That said, if there's a CF trade out there somewhere that nets the CF equivalent of Nimmo that's 23 that can be done without being raked over the coals, that would be preferrable for sure.

 

The OBP shouldnt even trend down that much, and he's proven that he doesnt need massive pop to be useful offensively.

[Spanky99]

Further to that 2021 is the only season where there is any consensus among the publicly available defensive metrics regarding his center field play. Even in 2022 Nimmo rated below average by both DRS and UZR.

 

I'm definitely in the don't blow dough on this guy crowd, that's kind of a scary profile to bid big on.

[max silver]

I'm definitely in the don't blow dough on this guy crowd, that's kind of a scary profile to bid big on.

 

There are also red flags in Nimmo's offensive profile. His plate discipline/walk rate numbers took a step backwards in 2022 and the ground ball rate is creeping up as well.

[Spanky99]

There are also red flags in Nimmo's offensive profile. His plate discipline/walk rate numbers took a step backwards in 2022 and the ground ball rate is creeping up as well.

 

Agreed, I meant entire profile.

[wamco]

I mean you are getting Cavan Biggio level physical tools if you sign Nimmo. Think about that.

 

Fistfight. You vs biggio, who wins in ur opinion?

Just for fun. U think u got him? He’s a lefty remember

[wamco]

It’s really hard to project certain stats going forward when mlb plays it fast and loose with the baseballs

[Laika]

Fistfight. You vs biggio, who wins in ur opinion?

Just for fun. U think u got him? He’s a lefty remember

 

Good question honestly. I think every Blue Jay would kick my ass except for:

 

Biggio - even fight he has the reach but I have the weight advantage and the desire

Gurriel - I think I could get a lucky punch and phase him

White - pussy

Kikuchi - lmao

[wamco]

I’d offer Bellinger 10M with a 20M option and a 2M buyout. No way he takes it but that feels about appropriate for what he’s projected to do.

 

I’d offer the dodgers to pay 7m of his salary if they agreed to send us the Mitch White instruction manual as well

[wamco]

Good question honestly. I think every Blue Jay would kick my ass except for:

 

Biggio - even fight he has the reach but I have the weight advantage and the desire

Gurriel - I think I could get a lucky punch and phase him

White - pussy

Kikuchi - lmao

 

Good call on LGJ. I feel he’d be overwhelming in any competition. Even the bedroom. Prob want to do weird s*** with his hair.

[InsideThePark]

How are opt outs treated in the CBT calculation? If we give Nimmo a 132/6 contract(Just an example) but tack 5 fake years at 800k at the end of it so it's actually a 136/11 with an opt out after year 6 which unless he suffers a career ending injury he's going to use. Woudl the CBT calculation be the whole 11 years so only "cost" 12.3?

[Spanky99]

It’s really hard to project certain stats going forward when mlb plays it fast and loose with the baseballs

 

Steamer and ZIPS.

[wamco]

How are opt outs treated in the CBT calculation? If we give Nimmo a 132/6 contract(Just an example) but tack 5 fake years at 800k at the end of it so it's actually a 136/11 with an opt out after year 6 which unless he suffers a career ending injury he's going to use. Woudl the CBT calculation be the whole 11 years so only "cost" 12.3?

 

I was wondering this as well. Yanks did this with lemahue to some extent, no?

[wamco]

Steamer and ZIPS.[/quote

 

Ya I’m saying baseball may decide to liven the ball again or deaden it again whenever they get bored (or I believe in any attempt to make money)

[Terminator]

Good question honestly. I think every Blue Jay would kick my ass except for:

 

Biggio - even fight he has the reach but I have the weight advantage and the desire

Gurriel - I think I could get a lucky punch and phase him

White - pussy

Kikuchi - lmao

 

Knock Jansen’s glasses off or connect somewhat square on what I presume is his glass jaw and you’d knock him out too

[Terminator]

4 years on Nimmo and I’d do it. 5 maybe as well. 6 would just be too reckless.