General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Carlos Danger]

Largely, they'll be using in-house proprietary systems for their projections that we have 0 access to. You make it sound like they just grab guys and hope they are good. They're using the same systems that told them Ray was a great gamble at the right price, Matz was a good proespective option, etc etc.

 

No, that doesnt mean that every pitcher they grab will live up to their projections. No, it's not perfect, nobody claims it is. No, just because it's not perfect doesnt mean it's useless.

 

Well to play Devils advocate- For one Ray, there was two of Rourke and Kikuchi..

 

We don't know if the Blue Jays are ok with Kikcuchi and White. They very well maybe and probably are, still looking for additional pitching.

 

My post was for other posters who think we have sufficient and solid depth after our top 4.

[Laika]

What metrics are they using to forecast improvements as SP for Kickuchi and White???

 

Kickuchi pitched in the pen to end the year. White didn't finish the season strong..

 

If you had a pitcher who's over all numbers sucked but they finished strong or were a BABIP victim it is one thing. I don't see any of that with these two.. You are literally relying on some voodoo magic to project an improvement..

 

I agree with Jim and others.. We should bring in another SP.. Wade Miley, Wacha etc... Someone that has a more consistent track record then anything else I have seen.. Which is just throwing s*** (with some of them) against the wall and hope it sticks.

 

You’re overthinking things and have probably been fooled by randomness.

 

Just look at their basic K and BB numbers. Their FIPs.

[L54]

Largely, they'll be using in-house proprietary systems for their projections that we have 0 access to. You make it sound like they just grab guys and hope they are good. They're using the same systems that told them Ray was a great gamble at the right price, Matz was a good proespective option, etc etc.

 

No, that doesnt mean that every pitcher they grab will live up to their projections. No, it's not perfect, nobody claims it is. No, just because it's not perfect doesnt mean it's useless.

 

You speak in absolutes way too often

 

For all we know their “proprietary systems” think Kikuchi is trash now.

 

Carlos makes a good point that there really aren’t any signs we can point to that would indicate future success for either of them. Neither of them were good in 2022.

 

You hope that the staff can fix them but if they can’t they’re hardly depth, they’re just cannon fodder.

[Brownie19]

What metrics are they using to forecast improvements as SP for Kickuchi and White???

 

Kickuchi pitched in the pen to end the year. White didn't finish the season strong..

 

If you had a pitcher who's over all numbers sucked but they finished strong or were a BABIP victim it is one thing. I don't see any of that with these two.. You are literally relying on some voodoo magic to project an improvement..

 

I agree with Jim and others.. We should bring in another SP.. Wade Miley, Wacha etc... Someone that has a more consistent track record then anything else I have seen.. Which is just throwing s*** (with some of them) against the wall and hope it sticks.

 

Wacha and Mitch White were very similar last year and have almost identical projections for 2023. Wacha has averaged 0.62 WAR per season over the past 5 years.

[L54]

Wacha and Mitch White were very similar last year and have almost identical projections for 2023. Wacha has averaged 0.62 WAR per season over the past 5 years.

 

Fun with statistics - using a sample size that omits his best season ever

[Carlos Danger]

You’re overthinking things and have probably been fooled by randomness.

 

Just look at their basic K and BB numbers. Their FIPs.

 

Just looking at Kikuchi. Over the last two seasons he was good for half a season. So, the actual track record/results are that he has sucked 75% of the time over the past two years.

 

He started the 2021 season on fire, made the All-Star game then went down hill in the second half. 2022 he was not a viable SP for a playoff team and a team trying to win a division. Is he better than other options, or a better 5 than other team's 5s, yes. However, if our goal is to is to win the division and improve in all facets from last year, Kickuchi has not shown he is the answer in the 5th rotation position.

 

One injury to the starting 4 or another Yo-Yo season from Berrios and now Kikuchi is your #4... Not who I want to go to war with..

[jaysblue]

Wacha and Mitch White were very similar last year and have almost identical projections for 2023. Wacha has averaged 0.62 WAR per season over the past 5 years.

 

You only bring in an extra arm for depth purposes, but yeah I don't see there being much of a difference between White and Wacha in 2023. Not sure its worth paying Wacha as a No. 5 when you can target a better arm.

 

Maybe someone like Cueto or Kluber can be an upgrade to the rotation as a No. 5 starter. Better to target one of them IMO.

[L54]

I don’t think they will, but I’d love to bring in one more legit starter. Someone who has actually done it before. Kluber, Wacha, Miley, Greinke, Cueto

[jaysblue]

I don’t think they will, but I’d love to bring in one more legit starter. Someone who has actually done it before. Kluber, Wacha, Miley, Greinke, Cueto

 

Cueto or Kluber would be my picks. Shapiro/Atkins can probably lure in Kluber because of their days in Cleveland.

 

Don't think Greinke would come here.

[jaysblue]

Kluber would be my main target as the No. 5 guy.

 

3.0 WAR last season, experience pitching in the AL and the AL East. 3.57 FIP last season and made 31 starts. 7.63 K/9 last season which was low for him but in 2021 posted a 9.23 K/9 with the Yankees, so I think he could fall somewhere in the middle. Probably will cost $10-12M on a one-year deal and could always include an option. Plus, Shapiro/Atkins connection. Would solidify the rotation perfectly IMO.

 

Gausman

Manoah

Bassitt

Berrios

Kluber

 

Depth:

Kikuchi

White

+ others

 

Rotation built well for a 162 game season and if injuries occur, will be able to weather the storm over a short or extended period if need be without scrambling.

[Terminator]

I don’t think they will, but I’d love to bring in one more legit starter. Someone who has actually done it before. Kluber, Wacha, Miley, Greinke, Cueto

 

Greinke would be awesome simply because of his quirky personality but he looks like he's running on fumes out there. The other guys are probably better.

[G-Snarls]

I don’t think they will, but I’d love to bring in one more legit starter. Someone who has actually done it before. Kluber, Wacha, Miley, Greinke, Cueto

 

I would too but we're paying Kikuchi 13M and Ryu 20M no matter if they pitch or not, well or not. Not sure if there's any money left.

[Ehjays]

 

filthy!!

[connorp]

Cueto or Kluber would be my picks. Shapiro/Atkins can probably lure in Kluber because of their days in Cleveland.

 

Don't think Greinke would come here.

 

Yeah ZG isn’t going to leave the SW for a few million end of the road contact. Not like it matters anyway

[Brownie19]

Fun with statistics - using a sample size that omits his best season ever

 

yes - I'm so smart - ignoring what he did in 2017. How about we make 2019 the cut off, in which case he's only averaged 0.575 WAR per year over the past 4 years. I mean if you can get Wacha for like $3M then f*** - go for it, but crowd source projects him to get 2 years $20M and to that I say f*** THAT.

[jaysblue]

yes - I'm so smart - ignoring what he did in 2017. How about we make 2019 the cut off, in which case he's only averaged 0.575 WAR per year over the past 4 years. I mean if you can get Wacha for like $3M then f*** - go for it, but crowd source projects him to get 2 years $20M and to that I say f*** THAT.

 

Better to spend $10-12M on Kluber or Cueto IMO.

[Jimcanuck]

yes - I'm so smart - ignoring what he did in 2017. How about we make 2019 the cut off, in which case he's only averaged 0.575 WAR per year over the past 4 years. I mean if you can get Wacha for like $3M then f*** - go for it, but crowd source projects him to get 2 years $20M and to that I say f*** THAT.

 

Projection systems take all this into account and project 1.5 WAR in 2023, over 28 starts. That's pretty good for a 5th starter.

 

He did have some arm issues 2018-2020.

[Brownie19]

Projection systems take all this into account and project 1.5 WAR in 2023, over 28 starts. That's pretty good for a 5th starter.

 

He did have some arm issues 2018-2020.

 

OK? He isn't someone I want to give 2 years $20M to. Do you Jim? projected xFIP of 4.12 (White's is projected at 4.15)

[Jimcanuck]

OK? He isn't someone I want to give 2 years $20M to. Do you Jim? projected xFIP of 4.12 (White's is projected at 4.15)

 

Yes, that is a good deal in this market.

 

Kikuchi and White will still get plenty of starts.

[Brownie19]

Yes, that is a good deal in this market.

 

Kikuchi and White will still get plenty of starts.

 

I'd much rather give Conforto $15M for 1 year than Wacha $20M over 2 years.

 

Quintana, Heaney, Manaea, Thor and Anderson all seemed like much better values at $12-13M than Wacha at $10M. I'd rather give Eovaldi $15M AAV.

[Jimcanuck]

I'd much rather give Conforto $15M for 1 year than Wacha $20M over 2 years.

 

Quintana, Heaney, Manaea, Thor and Anderson all seemed like much better values at $12-13M than Wacha at $10M. I'd rather give Eovaldi $15M AAV.

 

Conforto for 1 year is probably going to be closer to $20M.

 

Sure, Eovaldi would be a good get.

 

Jays need one more back end starter, IMO.

[jaysblue]

Conforto for 1 year is probably going to be closer to $20M.

 

Sure, Eovaldi would be a good get.

 

Jays need one more back end starter, IMO.

 

Kluber or Cueto

[Jonn]

Someone like Eovaldi would be intriguing just because he could work as multi inning power reliever in the playoffs.

[Jimcanuck]

Kluber or Cueto

 

Sure.

 

Doesn't matter who, as long as its a back end starter that should be better than Kooch and White and relegates them to the bullpen/depth.

[L54]

Sure.

 

Doesn't matter who, as long as its a back end starter that should be better than Kooch and White and relegates them to the bullpen/depth.

 

I agree with you. Really doesn’t matter who because they’re all old and low upside. The appeal is pushing the rest of the guys down on the depth chart

 

I don’t think they’ll add but it would be nice in a perfect world.

[Ehjays]

[Dick_Pole]

Kluber or Cueto

 

Aren't those guys just names now? Strikeout rate tanking on both on them. Like it or not, Kikuchi meshes well with this team and would probably perform better than either of them while here. Tons of walks, home runs and strikeouts. Takes this piss poor defense minus Chapman out of the equation. If he can control his walk rate he might be okay. I'm not prepared to sit through an 8 run 10 hit inning of singles and doubles that Johnny Cueto will most certainly give up if he pitches for the Jays.

[Deadpool]

Projection systems take all this into account and project 1.5 WAR in 2023, over 28 starts. That's pretty good for a 5th starter.

 

He did have some arm issues 2018-2020.

 

The same systems have Kikuchi at 1.1 WAR over 18 starts.

 

I'm just not super keen on spending money on a washed up has-been when we're SUPER close to the tax line, if we had a ~$40M cushion, I'd be down, but we don't.

[Spanky99]

I don’t think they will, but I’d love to bring in one more legit starter. Someone who has actually done it before. Kluber, Wacha, Miley, Greinke, Cueto

 

I think they will, after they find a bat. They've already said as much or have been rumoured to Cueto.

[Laika]

Yeah, the point is not that the team does not need an upgrade on SP5. Everybody would love a clear upgrade on SP5.

 

The point is that most of the names people want to bring in are not even projected upgrades.

 

If you look at ZiPS:

 

Kikuchi, 110.3 IP, 4.49 ERA, 1.0 WAR

White, 96.3 IP, 4.48 ERA, 1.0 WAR

Pearson 65.3 IP, 4.41 ERA, 0.7 WAR

Ryu, 3.93 ERA

Tiedemann, 4.12 ERA

Juenger, 4.25 ERA

Zulueta, 5.05 ERA

 

This is not like 2022 where the team went into the year with a big injury risk in the middle of the rotation (Ryu) and a big injury risk in the SP7 slot (Pearson) a performance risk in the SP5 slot (Kikuchi) and big performance risk in the SP6 slot (Stripling).

 

This year you would not characterize anybody in the SP1-SP4 slots as performance or injury risks (you assume negative regression from Manoah and some positive from Berrios but mostly just accept that Berrios is an SP4 now). The ostensible durability of the top 4 makes it a bit easier to be comfortable with everyone else filling in that final slot.

 

The depth chart + projections seem to say that Kikuchi and White should be "fine" and there is plenty of upside on the way in the second half with Ryu, Tiedemann, and Zulu. Also wild cards in Pearson and Juenger. White and Kikuchi also have some upside on their own.

 

And look at the projected performances of the possible free agents:

 

Kluber, 1.7 WAR, 4.45 ERA in 156 innings

Wacha, 1.5 WAR, 4.43 ERA in 153 innings

Miley, 1.1 WAR, 4.38 ERA

Greinke, 1.0 WAR, 4.55 ERA

Cueto, 0.8 WAR, 4.68 ERA

these are not park adjusted ERAs for Rogers Centre

 

Is it really worth $11M or so to bring in Kluber? For a minimal projected upgrade? I would take him of course, but it seems inefficient. And guys like Greinke and Cueto just seem like lateral moves with zero upside at all.

 

I think the best thing for SP depth in 2023 would be another nearly MLB ready SP prospect. Like one of those Arizona arms as part of a catcher trade, to slide in along Tiedemann as an upside play.

 

I just don't see the point in some boring old SP5 for this rotation. And I'm sure the Blue Jays FO looks at a lot of those potential additions and thinks something similar - "but this guy isn't even a projected upgrade on Kikuchi or White..."