General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)

[Spanky99]

We need to stop citing this. We 100% can guarantee him full time playing time; however, we do have to include the caveat that he has to produce. This is a WS contender and we can't let him hit .180 for 3 months while he works his way back from injury. The Rangers probably can unless they are delusional that they are a playoff team.

 

lmao

[jaysblue]

We need to stop citing this. We 100% can guarantee him full time playing time; however, we do have to include the caveat that he has to produce. This is a WS contender and we can't let him hit .180 for 3 months while he works his way back from injury. The Rangers probably can unless they are delusional that they are a playoff team.

 

Yeah I don't understand why some posters would think Toronto can't offer him full playing time here. Jays aren't signing him to big money just to be a platoon, unless like you said he's hitting .180 after the first three months.

[Laika]

I don't think any LHB free agent outfielder would look at Gurriel - Kiermaier - Springer and think playing time is a serious issue.

 

Two big injury risks + a right handed hitting performance risk.

[connorp]

Full playing time for Conforto may mean OF/DH. I think all that’s on record now is Boras saying he’s doing long toss. Boras also talked about how ready he was, right before he was put on the DL long term last year

[Captain Adama]

We need to stop citing this. We 100% can guarantee him full time playing time; however, we do have to include the caveat that he has to produce. This is a WS contender and we can't let him hit .180 for 3 months while he works his way back from injury. The Rangers probably can unless they are delusional that they are a playoff team.

 

That's a fair point, you worded it better that the Rangers could afford to give him a longer rope if he under produces, whereas the Jays can't afford to, or may be more risk averse.

[Dick_Pole]

I'm fully on board with the no trade/trade Jansen narrative and keep the other two. Despite this year which has been like grinding teeth when it comes to the Jays finding outfield solutions, it is a hell of a lot easier to find a corner outfielder with some pop than it is to find a catcher with plus defense and plus hitting, which all three of those guys have. The Jays should not capitulate. It's been a very unusual year but most years there are about half a dozen guys who could put up Gurriel-like production and defense to be had on one year contracts.

[Laika]

I'm fully on board with the no trade/trade Jansen narrative and keep the other two. Despite this year which has been like grinding teeth when it comes to the Jays finding outfield solutions, it is a hell of a lot easier to find a corner outfielder with some pop than it is to find a catcher with plus defense and plus hitting, which all three of those guys have. The Jays should not capitulate. It's been a very unusual year but most years there are about half a dozen guys who could put up Gurriel-like production and defense to be had on one year contracts.

 

Yeah even this year some decent OF are signing one year deals.

 

brantley, gallo, JDM, kiermaier, luplow so far. there will be many more. last year I know Pederson and Pham were cheap.

 

comparatively, the C you can get on a one year deal are horrible. Hedges, Maile, Zunino so far. Zunino the only interesting one but he was replacement level last year and I think had Thoracic Outlet Surgery.

 

100% no reason to give in and move a scarce two way player for some random poopy outfielder just because they hit left handed and have a few years of control.

[Brownie19]

That's a fair point, you worded it better that the Rangers could afford to give him a longer rope if he under produces, whereas the Jays can't afford to, or may be more risk averse.

 

Except I fully expect that Texas believes they are also contenders...SD is no different than us either.

[Captain_Obvious]

18% K rate and .263 BABIP for Thomas. Projected for a 107 wRC+ in 2023 and he's 22. He'll be fine.

 

Thomas and Pfaadt for Kirk is reasonable IMO.

 

Thomas being fine is far from a sure thing. You're cherry picking stats and not very useful ones at that. Tapia had 18% K rate too and better swing statcast numbers. I am not saying Thomas will surely flop or that the trade is not fair. The reason that it is fair is the risk the Blue Jays take with Thomas.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/alek-thomas-677950?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Swing Stats:

Avg Exit Velocity: 20th percentile

Hard Hit %: 21th percentile

Barrel %: 12th percentile

 

Plate Discipline Stats:

BB%: 14th percentile

Chase Rate: 20th percentile

Whiff %: 47th percentile

K%: 71th percentile

 

Expected Outcome Stats:

xBA: 32th percentile

xSLG: 9th percentile

xwOBA: 9th percentile

[Spanky99]

Thomas being fine is far from a sure thing. You're cherry picking stats and not very useful ones at that. Tapia had 18% K rate too and better swing statcast numbers. I am not saying Thomas will surely flop or that the trade is not fair. The reason that it is fair is the risk the Blue Jays take with Thomas.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/alek-thomas-677950?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Swing Stats:

Avg Exit Velocity: 20th percentile

Hard Hit %: 21th percentile

Barrel %: 12th percentile

 

Plate Discipline Stats:

BB%: 14th percentile

Chase Rate: 20th percentile

Whiff %: 47th percentile

K%: 71th percentile

 

Expected Outcome Stats:

xBA: 32th percentile

xSLG: 9th percentile

xwOBA: 9th percentile

 

Yikes...

 

[gruber92]

It seems to me that Gurriel is becoming a better overall hitter as he approaches 30, similar to his brother. He was willing to sacrifice some power last season in order to improve all his other metrics. I'm really liking the way he's now letting the ball travel a bit more with no issues hitting the ball hard the other way. I'd like to see him play in at least 75% of the games next season, as i don't think he'll disappoint.

[Spanky99]

It seems to me that Gurriel is becoming a better overall hitter as he approaches 30, similar to his brother. He was willing to sacrifice some power last season in order to improve all his other metrics. I'm really liking the way he's now letting the ball travel a bit more with no issues hitting the ball hard the other way. I'd like to see him play in at least 75% of the games next season, as i don't think he'll disappoint.

 

As a 4th OF/DH/1B injury replacement he should see 450+ AB's.

[Maine Jays]

Thomas being fine is far from a sure thing. You're cherry picking stats and not very useful ones at that. Tapia had 18% K rate too and better swing statcast numbers. I am not saying Thomas will surely flop or that the trade is not fair. The reason that it is fair is the risk the Blue Jays take with Thomas.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/alek-thomas-677950?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Swing Stats:

Avg Exit Velocity: 20th percentile

Hard Hit %: 21th percentile

Barrel %: 12th percentile

 

Plate Discipline Stats:

BB%: 14th percentile

Chase Rate: 20th percentile

Whiff %: 47th percentile

K%: 71th percentile

 

Expected Outcome Stats:

xBA: 32th percentile

xSLG: 9th percentile

xwOBA: 9th percentile

 

But what about his batting average and RBI's?

[Laika]

Thomas being fine is far from a sure thing. You're cherry picking stats and not very useful ones at that. Tapia had 18% K rate too and better swing statcast numbers. I am not saying Thomas will surely flop or that the trade is not fair. The reason that it is fair is the risk the Blue Jays take with Thomas.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/alek-thomas-677950?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb

 

Swing Stats:

Avg Exit Velocity: 20th percentile

Hard Hit %: 21th percentile

Barrel %: 12th percentile

 

Plate Discipline Stats:

BB%: 14th percentile

Chase Rate: 20th percentile

Whiff %: 47th percentile

K%: 71th percentile

 

Expected Outcome Stats:

xBA: 32th percentile

xSLG: 9th percentile

xwOBA: 9th percentile

 

Yeah Alek Thomas is in a polarizing statistical position.

 

The prospect models will still like him based on the strength of his MiLB results and his age. And his position if he's a true CF.

 

But the MLB results were gross by every measure other than contact rates, and speed/defense. And a lot of that gross data was "stable" within 2022.

 

So there is major incongruency, and it's coming in a familiar way, by which I mean this is a familiar reason for promising looking minor leaguers to bust. Simply not hitting the ball hard enough. Nick Madrigal being the extreme recent example, but there have been others like Vidal Brujan and Geraldo Perdomo.

 

So how he "projects" is really just a function of how reactive your model is.

I am not prepared to just hang my hat on Steamer for a prospect projection like this. It's going to just take some middle ground.

To me this is more of an all or nothing proposition. He'll either be a bust or a below average player for the same reasons he stunk in 2022, or there will be some scouting reason that the problematic data will change a bit. Like maybe he's a good enough pure hitter to improve has average exit velocity.

[Spanky99]

Yeah Alek Thomas is in a polarizing statistical position.

 

The prospect models will still like him based on the strength of his MiLB results and his age. And his position if he's a true CF.

 

But the MLB results were gross by every measure other than contact rates, and speed/defense. And a lot of that gross data was "stable" within 2022.

 

So there is major incongruency, and it's coming in a familiar way, by which I mean this is a familiar reason for promising looking minor leaguers to bust. Simply not hitting the ball hard enough. Nick Madrigal being the extreme recent example, but there have been others like Vidal Brujan and Geraldo Perdomo.

 

So how he "projects" is really just a function of how reactive your model is.

I am not prepared to just hang my hat on Steamer for a prospect projection like this. It's going to just take some middle ground.

To me this is more of an all or nothing proposition. He'll either be a bust or a below average player for the same reasons he stunk in 2022, or there will be some scouting reason that the problematic data will change a bit. Like maybe he's a good enough pure hitter to improve has average exit velocity.

 

When Steamer600 came out this year I noticed that the spects projections were high for a lot of guys. Why is that, Bargers numbers especially shocked me?

[TheHurl]

We need to stop citing this. We 100% can guarantee him full time playing time; however, we do have to include the caveat that he has to produce. This is a WS contender and we can't let him hit .180 for 3 months while he works his way back from injury. The Rangers probably can unless they are delusional that they are a playoff team.

 

It is just worded wrong. Toronto does not need to guarantee him full-time playing time. What does Conforto really do for us other than make it easier to pursue a trade for Moreno? His floor is lower than Lourdes or Whit, his ceiling is lower than Moreno. It takes PA's away from a positive contributing player no matter what. Anything more than a couple of starts in CF would mean bad things for the Jays for many reasons. I can see trying to get him on a value signing, but the upside just isn't big enough to get into a bidding war for the guarantee of going over the CBT for me.

[Stangstag]

It is just worded wrong. Toronto does not need to guarantee him full-time playing time. What does Conforto really do for us other than make it easier to pursue a trade for Moreno? His floor is lower than Lourdes or Whit, his ceiling is lower than Moreno. It takes PA's away from a positive contributing player no matter what. Anything more than a couple of starts in CF would mean bad things for the Jays for many reasons. I can see trying to get him on a value signing, but the upside just isn't big enough to get into a bidding war for the guarantee of going over the CBT for me.

 

This post is extremely confusing. Are we looking at the same Conforto?? Also how does signing Conforto make any difference for Moreno?

 

I don’t get it

[TheHurl]

This post is extremely confusing. Are we looking at the same Conforto?? Also how does signing Conforto make any difference for Moreno?

 

I don’t get it

 

I believe that keeping all three catchers and getting Moreno time in the OF is the best thing for the Jays.But also signing Conforto is not going to take PA's away from KK as people seem to think it iwill. It's Merrifield, DH's and Lourdes.

[Jimcanuck]

I believe that keeping all three catchers and getting Moreno time in the OF is the best thing for the Jays.

 

Reasonable. The FO seems to be taking the approach that one of the 3C will be moved in the right deal, and if not, what you have posted is what will happen.

 

Basically, waiting for some team to offer up an overpay.

[TheHurl]

Reasonable. The FO seems to be taking the approach that one of the 3C will be moved in the right deal, and if not, what you have posted is what will happen.

 

Basically, waiting for some team to offer up an overpay.

 

I think there is value in waiting for the season to start too. A season ending injury to one of the team's catchers who have gone all in (Realmuto, Narvaez) could really drive up the price and will give the Jays time to see where their greatest need is.

[Spanky99]

FO will wait to get their best return, it's been obvious since the last deadline past. No hurry, they have all the leverage now.

[jaysblue]

FO will wait to get their best return, it's been obvious since the last deadline past. No hurry, they have all the leverage now.

 

Yeah I don't think there is a rush to move one of their catchers unless the right deal comes along. A lot could still happen from now until Opening Day. If a team loses their No. 1 catcher during ST, first team they'll call is likely the Jays.

[Laika]

When Steamer600 came out this year I noticed that the spects projections were high for a lot of guys. Why is that, Bargers numbers especially shocked me?

 

Addison Barger is a stud, that's why.

 

With prospect projections it's not that the mean projection is "wrong" necessarily it's just that the distribution of possibilities is never displayed.

 

Like if you project Bo Bichette right now to be a 4 WAR player, 65% of all possible outcomes will fall within say 50% of that mean projection. He'd have to benefit from a large skill improvement on defense to get up over 6 wins, and he'd have to suffer a catastrophic injury or something to be below 2 wins. Probably.

 

But Addison Barger's distribution of outcomes will be much more diverse. If the projection system is saying his "full season talent" right now is 3 WAR the part it is not showing you is that his possible outcomes are not clustered around that as tightly as someone under 30 with a bunch of MLB data. So his chances of producing 0 WAR will be orders of magnitude higher than Bo's. And his chances of being worth negative WAR will be like 100x higher. The curves of their projection distributions will not look the same, at all. His curve will be much flatter. Bo will also have better chances of elite seasons. The skew/kurtosis of the projection curves for a true prospect will be insane. It will be all flat, wonky, maybe even bivariate. Bo's should look more like a normal distribution.

 

[wilko]

It seems to me that Gurriel is becoming a better overall hitter as he approaches 30, similar to his brother. He was willing to sacrifice some power last season in order to improve all his other metrics. I'm really liking the way he's now letting the ball travel a bit more with no issues hitting the ball hard the other way. I'd like to see him play in at least 75% of the games next season, as i don't think he'll disappoint.

 

Not sure I agree with that. His numbers aren't very different from other years besides the power dip which is a concern.

[Jimcanuck]

It is reasonable to expect Gurriel's power numbers to improve in 2022.

 

Problem is he sucks defensively, making him a borderline OF asset.

[Ehjays]

[Terminator]

We need to stop citing this. We 100% can guarantee him full time playing time; however, we do have to include the caveat that he has to produce. This is a WS contender and we can't let him hit .180 for 3 months while he works his way back from injury. The Rangers probably can unless they are delusional that they are a playoff team.

 

So we face a lefty who are we sitting? Kiermaier who says he’s not platooning either, Springer, Gurriel, or Kirk? Whit also available as it’d probably be a good idea to get Espinal in vs. a lefty.

[G-Snarls]

Except I fully expect that Texas believes they are also contenders...SD is no different than us either.

 

I think you are right.

 

The Rangers *think* they are contenders but will likely finish 20 games behind the Astros. Unless deGrom somehow manages to make 25+ starts in which case they might finish 15 games behind.

 

The Padres OTOH might actually win their division

[Laika]

 

interesting that Gurriel made his way into this graphic

[Dick_Pole]

The chances of Gurriel being on the team on opening day is extremely high. I mean, they can't trade him. Both for the fact that they desperately need outfielders and that he hasn't got a lot of value. Him making it over others might say more about the guys not pictured.